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Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 16 Mar 2016, 11:41:49

vox_mundi wrote:
Tanada wrote:
vox_mundi wrote:
Tanada wrote:I don't get why the reporters took this news and ran off to proclaim it solves the Bermuda Triangle question. The Barents Sea is thousands of miles from Bermuda! On top of that a rising gas column causes all the water to churn upward making ships and boats rise higher, not sink!

Actually, this is old news that circulated about ten years ago. A blowout of a large pingo in the North Sea sunk a large fishing trawler which was discovered 400 ft down sitting upright in the center of the resulting crater.

When a large plume of methane blows out, the resulting bubbles reduce the density of the water column. If the boat exceeds this density, it drops like an elevator.

Relative density. It's why an ice cube floats on water and sinks on gasoline.


Yeah that was the theory, however when they tested it by releasing large quantities of pressurized air under boats it was demonstrated that the theory does not work in real life, ...

Do you have a link to this study?

Thought experiment:

Take a cubic meter of water (density = 1,000 kg/m³)

Replace half the volume with methane (density = 0.656 kg/m³)

Then each cubic meter of the mixture has a density of 500.3 kg/m³

Say this change in density occurs over a quarter mile of sea surface

If a ship normally displaces 100,000 cubic meters in water the ship would have to displace twice the volume (200,000 cubic meters) to remain afloat. If water over tops it will become an instant submarine.

Will it float? Maybe empty; but full, I don't think so.


Except you are not changing the static density of the water, what you are doing is bubbling gas through the water. Sure if you take an instantaneous average of the density of the water column you can say the value is reduced by 50 percent, like you did.

However in the real world the column is not just sitting there at 50 percent the average of the water all around it. First off you start with a burst of gas deep below the surface, all releasing in the space of a few seconds to just a few minutes at the most. We know this based on the shape of the Pingo craters we find on the sea floor, if the gas were released slowly the crater would have a different appearance. So here you are releasing this burst of gas 400 feet (130 meters) below the surface. What happens next? Well the gas is much less dense than the water above it so it starts rising very rapidly to the surface. As it rises the turbulence of passing through the water breaks it into smaller bubbles, and it spreads out somewhat horizontally as well.

Then what? Well as the gas rises it has several effects on the water, namely it pushes the water horizontally out of its path. Then as it passes any given spot is causes the water that was pushed aside horizontally to be sucked back in to replace the volume of the gas that has passed through that spot. This is compounded as the gas continues to rise creating a slight partial vacuum underneath the bubbles. Just like what happens to the air when a large truck travels at high speed, the column as a whole is driven in the same direction as the passing gas bubbles. What you end up with is a wide spot on the surface where the gas bursts out followed by the up welling of the water column that was put in motion by the wake of the gas bubbles as they were drawn along in the turbulence.

At no time is the whole water column of a static 50 percent density. In point of fact only the zone moving up the column where the mass of the bubbles are located at any instant in time has low density. If the gas is all released in one explosive burst that probably lasts less than 2 seconds and it takes 30 seconds to ascend all the way to the surface then when the burst reaches the top of the water the low density zone is only 26 feet thick. Now put that directly under your hypothetical tanker, what happens? Worst case scenario your "drops like an elevator effect" drops the ship 26 feet to the top of the nearly gas free portion of the water column that is itself rising upward like an elevator. However in the actual situation that mixed water/gas burst breaking through the surface has a lot of water mixed in it, and that water is hitting the bottom of the hull and pushing it up despite the low average density of the gas burst water mixture. Then as the gas/water mixture finishes passing up around the hull of the ship the fast moving water column that was drawn up by the passing gas arrives and runs into the bottom of the hull also pushing it up.

Net effect, a column of gas and spray shoots up all around the ship, the deck gets wet and the ship gets jolted as the water refills the space left behind by the gas.

Video proof the theory does not work in practice.

https://youtu.be/Ux9sogZkIm8
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 16 Mar 2016, 12:10:52

In 2013, marine geophysicist Dr Bryan Davy from GNS Science found what may be the world’s largest gas eruption craters on the seafloor about 310 miles east of Christchurch, New Zealand.

The craters, which the researchers called ‘pockmarks,’ formed in an active gas zone along the ocean bottom. They measured from 250 meters to 7 miles in diameter and about 300 feet deep. With the largest crater able to encompass all of lower Manhattan.


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http://www.sci-news.com/othersciences/g ... 00985.html

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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 12:22:31

7,000 underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

Scientists have discovered as many as 7,000 gas-filled 'bubbles' expected to explode in Actic regions of Siberia after an exercise involving field expeditions and satellite surveillance, TASS reported.

A number of large craters - seen on our images here - have appeared on the landscape in northern Siberia in recent years and they are being carefully studied by scientists who believe they were formed when pingos exploded.

Alexey Titovsky, director of Yamal department for science and innovation, said: 'At first such a bump is a bubble, or 'bulgunyakh' in the local Yakut language.

'With time the bubble explodes, releasing gas. This is how gigantic funnels form.'

Image

The total of 7,000 - reported by TASS - is startlingly more than previously known.

The region has seen several recent examples of sudden 'craters' or funnels forming from pingos after what scientists believe are caused by eruptions from methane gas released by the thawing of permafrost which is triggered by climate change.

'We need to know which bumps are dangerous and which are not,' said Titovsky. 'Scientists are working on detecting and structuring signs of potential threat, like the maximum height of a bump and pressure that the earth can withstand.'

He said: 'Work will continue all through 2017.'

Back in 2016, local environmental researchers Alexander Sokolov and Dorothee Ehrich decided to pull back the dirt and grass that had been blanketing these bulging bumps of earth, and found that the air escaping from them contained up to 1,000 times more methane than the surrounding air, and 25 times more carbon dioxide.

Image

The summer was abnormally hot for the Yamal peninsula, with the air temperature reaching 35C.

This heat impacted on the depth of seasonal thawing which grew both deeper spread wider than in the past, so causing the formation of new lakes and a noticeable change in the regional tundra landscape.

Scientists are simultaneously observing the sudden formation of the large craters, evidently caused by eruptions or explosions of methane gas which has melted below the surface.

Most experts now believe they were created by explosions of methane gas unlocked by warming temperatures in the far north of Russia.

Recently there were accounts of a 'big bang' triggering the formation of a crater on the Taimyr Peninsula. However, there was no pingo on this spot before the eruption in 2013. The noise could be heard up to 100 km away and one resident saw a 'glow in the sky' after the explosion, it was revealed.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 14:57:18

The globe is warming in a continuation of a 15,000 year warming trend that began in the Pliestocene. What part of that do you not understand? If mankind had not burned megatons of fossil fuels, the average global temperature might be lagging sliightly behind where it is now, but not by much. Stopping the burning of FF's entirely will not stop this warming, is pretty much what most of those highly suspect AGW models indicate.

The rational thing to do is move N, secure access to your own food/water/energy, and bask in the comforts of rural life. Else you can wallow in mutual misery as you try to top one another's angst over an upward temperature trend that YOU, all the members of PO.com, or all Americans collectively cannot alter or stop. It is up to you.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 16:08:01

The globe is warming in an accelerated trend that began with the industrial revolution. What part of that do you not understand? If mankind had not burned megatons of fossil fuels, the average global temperature would be lagging behind by thousands of years compared to where it is now. Stopping the burning of FF's entirely will not stop this warming--only because the denial-machine has one, and we're just too selfish and short-sighted anyway.

The rational thing to do is concede to this and make your peace to however this will play out, which, thanks to things like Trump, is likely to be continued denials perhaps all the way through the malthusian catastrophe.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 16:31:51

That's really stupid. Even if you could prove that FF burning accelerated the natural warming, which nobody here at PO.com has done for me in 3 years, we appear by the prevailing opinion to have passed the oil peak. That means that something less than 50% of the oil remains to be burned, the exact amount being a function of economic forces, human behaviors, and the inescapable fact that 80% of the world's human foods are produced by burning fuel, and using petroleum pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers. Then they are transported via petroleum fuelled vehicles for consumption.

I don't know WHEN we will start to feel the pinch of the oil peak, but I think it's unavoidable, and a problem that is self-correcting as we run short of oil. It will inconvenience Americans and other First World countries, and starve the Third World.

There would appear to be some opportunity to reduce coal burning and replace it with hydro power, wind power, and solar power. That is in fact happening.

So riddle me this. Given the fact that we cannot stop or reverse the warming trend, we must adapt to it. Fortunately the USA is in the best position to do this of any country. What purpose is served by acting like Chicken Little, running around screetching "The Globe is Warming! The Globe is Warming!"?

It's certainly NOT news to us here at PO.com. Nor does Trump or Obama have anything to do with warming. The two major parties say slightly different things, but neither takes any effective action to reduce FF burning. So unless you elect someone other than an R or a D, nothing beneficial will ever happen via national policy.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 17:58:04

The atmosphere of the earth has, on average, been cooling by about .1 degree per millennium for the last 8000 years or so. That's why some estimates are that humans are responsible for over 100% of the warming we've seen--since we should have expected that cooling to continue over the last couple hundred years since industrial fossil-death-fuel burning got going in earnest.

Now multiple feedback loops are kicking in, including failure of carbon sinks, and the double whammy of former carbon sinks turning into carbon sources. Permafrost is one of the big ones in that department.

If we could keep the subject of this thread on Arctic permafrost behavior, it would be appreciated.

Denialists have been given their very own stickied thread in this forum for them to spew their bloviations. They don't have to pollute every single other thread in the entire forum with their filth.

Thanks.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 18:37:56

In a way it is a shame those domes are so isolated, if they were easier to access scientists could take samples and find out exactly what process is going on.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 18:53:50

Scientists HAVE been taking samples and DO know what's going on.

What kind of comment was that? Trying to manufacture doubt? That's a denier modus operandi.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 19:19:06

"Due to orbital cycles we should be in a cooling phase but we are not. We have overwhelmed that natural cycle."

Well put.

As to sub, he just isn't as utterly obsessed with methane as we are so probably (like 99.999% of the population) hasn't followed the latest science on these.

Let's not try to tar everyone who wanders into a conversation and asks questions with the denialist label, if we can help it. There are plenty others who deserve the label here much more richly! :)
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 19:39:48

So we will probably disagree forever on this. I believe that the orbital mechanics say that the Climatic Optimum for this glacial cycle still has 120-1200 years of natural warming before the cooling begins.

But once again, we are all in agreement that the point is moot, nothing whatsoever will change what is happening now. I believe that the globe will peak at the Climatic Optimum, and then we will be powerless to stop the Global Cooling for the next 80,000 years.

As to which one of us is right about this, we'll never in fact know. So give up the argument at least. You are of course welcome to your cherished delusions, as long as you don't offend other members by claiming that the theory of AGW is correct or has any scientific basis.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 19:49:12

Oh, please. It is an ORBITAL cycle and we know PRECISELY where we are in it.
Your ignorance is astounding. Sorry you are so bruised from people informing others of the FACTS of Climate Change and Global Warming.

The delusional one is you.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 21:42:31

Cid_Yama wrote:Oh, please. It is an ORBITAL cycle and we know PRECISELY where we are in it.
Your ignorance is astounding. Sorry you are so bruised from people informing others of the FACTS of Climate Change and Global Warming.

The delusional one is you.


That's true, we have pretty good orbital figures. But there are at least three solar cycles with periods ranging from 11 years (sunspots) to 100,000 years (unknown cause, but almost certainly the main driver for glacial cycles) and another of unknown duration (probably tens of thousands of years) that occasionally causes us to skip a glacial. Nobody has a model of solar output worth a damn. Sometimes we forget that our Sun is a variable star, and that the solar insolation has much more effect on climate than any paltry effect located on the planet itself.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 23:33:35

KaiserJeep wrote: Sometimes we forget that our Sun is a variable star, and that the solar insolation has much more effect on climate than any paltry effect located on the planet itself.

It's the CHANGE in solar insolation over time that would matter as far as AGW, not the total solar energy. It's not like the sun quits shining, for example.

The science says that solar variation has a smaller impact on global warming than greenhouse gases like CO2.

You keep making unscientific statements and pretending your denial of the AGW data is "scientific".

For example:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/solar- ... arming.htm

http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/FAQ2.html

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/sc ... NNP2G_yuCg
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 23:45:28

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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 25 Mar 2017, 09:40:39

From Canada to Siberia, Permafrost Thaw Produces ‘Hell’s Mouth’ Craters, Sinking Lands, and 7,000 Methane Pockets Waiting to Blow


https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/24/ ... g-to-blow/
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 25 Mar 2017, 11:28:26

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/3995 ... tudy-warns
Dahr Jamail | Release of Arctic Methane "May Be Apocalyptic," Study Warns
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 25 Mar 2017, 12:12:21

Image
The World is Warming!!!!
The World is Warming!!!!
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 25 Mar 2017, 14:07:07

KaiserJeep wrote:Image
The World is Warming!!!!
The World is Warming!!!!

cute
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 25 Mar 2017, 15:29:32

onlooker, I don't particularly enjoy making fun of someone's cherished beliefs. But really, where were you going with the post above mine? Were you not attempting to raise "Apocalyptic" hysteria over AGW?

Has there ever, in the years that you and I been disagreeing on this topic, entered your mind any of the follllowing:

1) The AGW theory is unproven. It has, I will admit, more supporters than opponents. The reason this happened is because during both the terms of Clinton, and both the terms of Obama, there was a system in place where the NSF awarded money only to those who were confirming global warming. Bush was notably even-handed in his approach, most probably because he was peoccupied with the 9/11 war, and never denied funding based upon the applicant's views on AGW, from what I can tell. Trump is on the opposite political side on this issue, if you want money, your grant application had better be about disproving AGW. IMHO this is an appalling situation, because this issue is important and should not be a political football.

2) Even if you are correct, and the AGW is real, we are past the oil peak, and even if you had proved your point, we cannot stop burning oil. If we did so, about 80% of the humans in this world would lose access to food, then die. It's damned inconvenient, and it's probably going to do untold damage to the ecology before the human overshoot population is gone, but in the end, it's a moot point - we cannot stop the warming, and the more immediate mass human casualties from attempting to do so are very much worse than the warming itself. To advocate the end of FF consumption is one and the same as advocating human genocide, in the absence of adequate replacement energy sources.

3) Considering both 1 & 2, could we not better spend our time discussing the truly apocalyptic impacts of the end of cheap oil, and how we can avoid an increased dependancy on that dirtiest of energy sources, which is coal? That is the real purpose of PO.com.
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