Outcast_Searcher wrote:Good post. Excellent points.
Certainly looking at the big picture of serious problems coupled with the onward BAU activity in consumption (for those who can afford it) and population growth, the picture isn't pretty.
Environmental damage including global warming scares me more than oil depletion -- because there is so little obvious financial incentive to fix it. (This could eventually change, but I'm not a fan of the competence or proactiveness of big government to take the longer view).
Certainly looking at all the big problems, humanity could certainly kill itself. However, I still believe that once problems are obvious, societies will at least TRY to adapt, so IMO, it is highly unlikely the end of modern society will be rapid -- more like a horrendous grind down, where unlike since the 70's (say) where things overall seem to be blundering sideways, the losses will outweigh the gains.
Unfortunately, if returns for other energy sources are also too low, then the financial incentive to transition becomes more difficult. In addition, the drive for financial incentive may make matters worse, as increasing demand for higher returns on investment and profit requires increasing use of energy and resources.
In the end, societies will try to adapt, which is what many have been doing for decades (most people earn only a few dollars a day and lack access to one or more basic needs), but the size of the global population, the extent of environmental damage, and the heavy reliance of that same population on oil for manufacturing, plus the other problems mentioned earlier will make adaptation more difficult.
