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How much oil is required to produce everyday life products?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: How much oil is required to produce everyday life produc

Unread postby tom_s2 » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 11:47:58

sunweb,

For those of you still open to learning,


Speak for yourself. You're constantly bombarded with massive disconfirming evidence, over years, and you've learned nothing from it. You've seen massive failure of prediction, and you don't even ask why. Whenever any objection is posed, you just dodge the topic and bow out suddenly.

The paper you are referring to purposefully does not perform a quality adjustment for electricity and so overstates the ERoEI of fossil fuels (by approximately 3x) if used to generate electricity. Furthermore, the paper is measuring the ERoEI of solar cells in Germany which is one of the worst locations for them. Furthermore, the paper is including the entire cost of pumped storage in their ERoEI calculations so solar PV can be compared to "baseload" power generation. That is "stacking the deck" against solar PV about as far as possible. You mentioned none of this. You just picked an outlier.

You could even have read the responses from other researchers to that paper you cited. The responses from other researchers were uniformly negative. It's in the same journal. Here are some highlights: "Serious methodological errors in a paper by Weibach et al. invalidate their results...Weibach et al.'s findings and conclusions are rebutted."

I'm not saying the rebuttal is necessarily right. However, you didn't even MENTION it. Again, you cherry-picked.

For those of you still open to learning,


If you are open to learning something about the topic, then you won't just cherry-pick outlying references as you're doing, ignore criticisms from other researchers, and dodge all objections and offer no legitimate response.

-Tom S
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Re: How much oil is required to produce everyday life produc

Unread postby tom_s2 » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 11:57:38

Hi Pops,

Pops wrote:
tom_s2 wrote:but the change will be spread out over 100 years

Speaking of facts, Tom, this is not a fact but rather a single prediction of the future on which you choose to hang your opinion.


I definitely grant your point. My figure of 100 years until total exhaustion, was a guesstimate. I was using the most pessimistic estimate I can think of, which is the Hubbert curve. Hubert curves are symmetric, in which case oil won't be essentially exhausted for 100 years.

There are all kinds of other estimates. Some people (like Odell) claim that we have something like 14 trillion barrels if you include all the crappy unconventional oil. In which case, oil extraction could continue in some form for a very, very long time.

Let's hope not. I'd rather get the transition to renewables underway now. I suspect peak oil will ultimately be a benefit because it will force a transition to EVs and renewables.

-Tom S
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Re: How much oil is required to produce everyday life produc

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 12:36:28

Tom - " Hubert curves are symmetric, in which case oil won't be essentially exhausted for 100 years. FYI: Hubbert specifically states that the projection of his curve wouldn't be symmetrical. In fact far from it...a long slowly declining tail. And am I correct that you're mixing the oil production rate models with the oil cumulative model? Hubbert was focused on the rate...not how much oil would be produced.

And regardless of which model you're looking at oil extraction will obviously continue for a long time. But at what rate and volume is an entirely different matter. I'm late to the chat and hope I'm not missing your point.
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Re: How much oil is required to produce everyday life produc

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 13:58:38

Although Hubbert originated the idea of "peal oil/coal/nuclear/etc., we have passed the oil peak - as long as you define it as peak US conventional well production. But (I confess I do not know the originator of the idea) we are now in that period that Michael Ruppert referred to as "the Jagged Peaks" in the film Collapse. As unconventional sources of petroleum become economical to exploit, the price rises and falls for as long as supply exceeds demand, and the new energy extraction tech becomes profitable. Then one day, the rising demand will exceed the supply from all available conventional and unconventional sources, and the price will begin to rise faster than we can adjust to it. I personally remember $0.18/gallon gasoline, and a peak when it was 30X that price - and we rode those prices up and down and used more gas than ever before.
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Re: How much oil is required to produce everyday life produc

Unread postby tom_s2 » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 14:08:11

Hi Rockman,

I see your point. I was trying to pick a pessimistic wild guess. Actually, I initially said it would be at least 100 years until exhaustion. I didn't mean for it to be interpreted too literally. There could very easily be a slowly declining, long tail.

Also, I have no idea what kinds of unconventional oil will be exploited in decades hence. Most people (myself included) didn't see the fracking boom coming even a few years in advance.

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Re: How much oil is required to produce everyday life produc

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 15:40:01

tom_s2 wrote:Fossil fuels are used because they're the CHEAPEST way of accomplishing certain things right now. That's the only reason. Fossil fuels are modestly cheaper than alternatives, that's all.

Oil will deplete gradually over more than a century. That is VASTLY more time than the economy requires to transition to alternatives. The economy ROUTINELY and AUTOMATICALLY transitions to alternatives as they become cheaper. This is an EASY PROBLEM for the economy to manage. This is something which the economy does all the time. Some things may become more expensive, but there is no imminent end of civilization because of peak oil.

Yup. Economics and history both suggest this is far more correct than "we're all doomed real soon since oil will disappear", Mad Max style.

Be prepared to be roundly attacked by many on this site for having such a viewpoint. Posters like Oilfinder, OF2, Copius_Abundance, etc. who have expressed cornucopian viewpoints (with a lot more credible data and accuracy than many of their "all doomer all the time" detractors) have been repeatedly vilified for years.

As a moderate (who believes that radical change will generally be slow and suspects we'll bumble along and evolve and use substitutes and do smart AND dumb stuff along the way, like throughout history) who joined the site to learn about energy and related topics, I appreciate thoughtful discourse using actual data from both sides of the spectrum. So have at it as an optimist, but be prepared to bring your elephant (or equivalent) skin. (There are a lot of "reasonable" long term pessimistic folks on this site as well, who are far more tolerant and objective in their views).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: How much oil is required to produce everyday life produc

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 22:18:56

tom_s2 wrote:Hi Pops,

Pops wrote:
tom_s2 wrote:but the change will be spread out over 100 years

Speaking of facts, Tom, this is not a fact but rather a single prediction of the future on which you choose to hang your opinion.


I definitely grant your point. My figure of 100 years until total exhaustion, was a guesstimate. I was using the most pessimistic estimate I can think of, which is the Hubbert curve. Hubert curves are symmetric, in which case oil won't be essentially exhausted for 100 years.

There are all kinds of other estimates. Some people (like Odell) claim that we have something like 14 trillion barrels if you include all the crappy unconventional oil. In which case, oil extraction could continue in some form for a very, very long time.

Let's hope not. I'd rather get the transition to renewables underway now. I suspect peak oil will ultimately be a benefit because it will force a transition to EVs and renewables.

-Tom S


Unfortunately, peak oil is about production rate rather than reserves. That means the effects of peak oil will take place even before oil runs out. In fact, they may even appear before the production rate peak.

Some interviewed for one feature about peak oil argued that governments should have prepared at least a decade ago. That is likely because a transition process involves lag time and energy traps, i.e., fossil fuels and many other material resources needed to manufacture components for renewable energy, infrastructure, etc.

The IEA adds that heavy regulation has to take place. I do not know how this will take place if the same governments that should regulate can only earn from the opposite.

In relation to that, the transition will have to take place in a global free market capitalist system that operates through profits and competition. That means increasing consumption, more waste, focusing on renewable energy when oil prices are high (and while high oil prices lead to economic crisis), etc.
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Re: How much oil is required to produce everyday life produc

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 22:30:39

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
tom_s2 wrote:Fossil fuels are used because they're the CHEAPEST way of accomplishing certain things right now. That's the only reason. Fossil fuels are modestly cheaper than alternatives, that's all.

Oil will deplete gradually over more than a century. That is VASTLY more time than the economy requires to transition to alternatives. The economy ROUTINELY and AUTOMATICALLY transitions to alternatives as they become cheaper. This is an EASY PROBLEM for the economy to manage. This is something which the economy does all the time. Some things may become more expensive, but there is no imminent end of civilization because of peak oil.

Yup. Economics and history both suggest this is far more correct than "we're all doomed real soon since oil will disappear", Mad Max style.

Be prepared to be roundly attacked by many on this site for having such a viewpoint. Posters like Oilfinder, OF2, Copius_Abundance, etc. who have expressed cornucopian viewpoints (with a lot more credible data and accuracy than many of their "all doomer all the time" detractors) have been repeatedly vilified for years.

As a moderate (who believes that radical change will generally be slow and suspects we'll bumble along and evolve and use substitutes and do smart AND dumb stuff along the way, like throughout history) who joined the site to learn about energy and related topics, I appreciate thoughtful discourse using actual data from both sides of the spectrum. So have at it as an optimist, but be prepared to bring your elephant (or equivalent) skin. (There are a lot of "reasonable" long term pessimistic folks on this site as well, who are far more tolerant and objective in their views).


The problem is that we face multiple issues, and not just from peak oil. Not only do the substitutes still require oil, they also have low energy quality and quantity. A global capitalist economy requires the opposite.

To make matters worse, the new oil that will be used will still lead to more pollution and CO2 emissions, thus continuing environmental damage and global warming.

If the transition will involve market forces, then it might not take place smoothly if oil prices remain volatile. Government regulation might not take place if governments rely on increasing profits to earn more tax revenues.

Finally, what we see today is far different from what has taken place throughout history. This includes not only a JIT system-intensive global economy where even renewable energy components involve significant fossil fuel inputs but also a large global population, a growing global middle class that needs more energy and material resources, environmental damage on a significant scale, the effects of global warming, and many-fold increases in armaments production and deployment.
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Re: How much oil is required to produce everyday life produc

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 16 Apr 2015, 01:18:32

tom_s2 wrote:The economy ROUTINELY and AUTOMATICALLY transitions to alternatives as they become cheaper.
You mean, as oil becomes more expensive than alternatives?
tom_s2 wrote:Some things may become more expensive, but there is no imminent end of civilization because of peak oil.
"Some things" being transport, keeping warm (or cool) and everything else that depends on energy. Not the "end of civilization", but TEOTWAWKI (exponential growth of material consumption).
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