pstarr wrote:The so-called oil glut will last forever even as production falls. The world is going into a deflation, characterized by contraction or shrinking purchasing power. It is a condition where prices are falling but there is a corresponding decrease in employment, total output, and thus income. This has already begun.
This has already begun.
EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels grew by 1.4 million b/d in 2015, averaging 93.8 million b/d for the year. EIA expects global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels to grow by 1.4 million b/d in both 2016 and 2017. Forecast real gross domestic product (GDP) for the world weighted by oil consumption, which increased by an estimated 2.4% in 2015, rises by 2.7% in 2016 and by 3.2% in 2017.
Consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) increased by an estimated 0.8 million b/d in 2015, considerably lower than the 1.4 million b/d increase in 2014 mainly because of the slowdown in Eurasia, which saw a contraction in its consumption, and to a lesser degree because of China's slightly slower demand growth. Non-OECD consumption growth is expected to be 1.1 million b/d in both 2016 and 2017, reflecting higher growth in the Middle East and Eurasia.
OECD petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption rose by 0.6 million b/d in 2015. OECD consumption is expected to continue rising in both 2016 and 2017 by 0.3 and 0.4 million b/d, respectively, driven by an increase in U.S. consumption. OECD Europe demand is also expected to increase through the forecast period, albeit at a slower pace than the 0.3 million b/d increase in 2015. U.S. consumption is forecast to increase by 0.2 and 0.3 million b/d in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Consumption in Japan is forecast to decline by less than 0.1 million b/d in both 2016 and 2017.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
pstarr wrote:The so-called oil glut will last forever even as production falls. The world is going into a deflation, characterized by contraction or shrinking purchasing power. It is a condition where prices are falling but there is a corresponding decrease in employment, total output, and thus income. This has already begun.
On the other hand oil demand grew a LOT in 2015, here is what the EIA published just a few days ago.EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels grew by 1.4 million b/d in 2015, averaging 93.8 million b/d for the year.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:This site doesn't need to constantly produce false economic doom pronouncements by the bucketload. zerohedge already has that job.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:(When it actually happens, like happened in fall of 2008 through spring of 2009, with objective data to back it up, then I'll be happy to agree with you).
GHung wrote:Tanada said;On the other hand oil demand grew a LOT in 2015, here is what the EIA published just a few days ago.EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels grew by 1.4 million b/d in 2015, averaging 93.8 million b/d for the year.
Considering that the price of oil is about half of what it was at the beginning of the year, I don't consider that demand grew by " a LOT". According to your EIA numbers, it grew about 1.5%. Maybe your definition of "a LOT" differs from mine.
Interesting that, in the US alone, VIO (vehicles in operation) grew by 2.1%, and the average age of VIO went up slightly to 11.5 years.
http://press.ihs.com/press-release/auto ... hs-reports
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
GregT wrote:Longer than our economies can remain solvent.
Newfie wrote:Not making a prediction, I'm really bad at them, but I like KJs thinking above. The glut will continue until there is a ME war or some other disruption.
KaiserJeep wrote:The glut will last until widespread warfare exists in the ME. Then we abruptly switch from glut to shortages as ME production ends.
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