[DesuMaiden]

Our current agricultural system is not sustainable. It is totally and utterly reliant on fossil fuels. When you take fossil fuels out of the equation, we will not be able to produce food at the levels we are right now. Food production will go down when you take oil out of the equation. When food production goes down, then there will be massive starvation and famine.

How do we create an agricultural system that is not dependent on fossil fuels, and yet can feed the population of the world? We need to be able to feed our current population without the use of petro-chemicals, which will be a huge challenge in the years to come, as our petroleum supply continues to contract.

[killJOY]

How do we create an agricultural system that is not dependent on fossil fuels, and yet can feed the population of the world?

We don't.

[KaiserJeep]

You failed to mention that modern agriculture is also totally dependant upon fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides that are petrochemicals, and thus are made from oil (although nitrogen fertilizers are also made from natural gas).

Modern mechanized agriculture plus the chemicals above allows one farmer to feed thousands. You do not get near as much production from sustainable agrarian farming methods.

When we run out of oil, the overshoot population will die back to a sustainable level, is obvious. What is not so obvious is what happens to the planet as those billions of people struggle to feed themselves. One possible scenario is a nuclear war that has as its motive a struggle for water/food/energy.

Americans are blessed with a large amount of arable land, underground aquifers, and enough oil to make use of it not only to feed ourselves, but to export food. Some portion of that food production in recent years has been diverted into biofuels production. In other words, we are burning some portion of the food we formerly produced to haul our fat and lazy carcasses around. Those that can no longer afford our higher priced grains starve.

This occurs to me every time I have a gas pump in my hand. The 10% ethanol in that tankfull might have fed a family in Somalia for a month, left as grain.

[vtsnowedin]

Just wait until the population crashes to below one billion then grab a shovel or hoe.

[GHung]

"We need to be able to feed our current population without the use of petro-chemicals, which will be a huge challenge in the years to come"...

Not a 'huge challenge'. Impossible, IMO. The rapid growth in population over the last century was enabled almost entirely by the use of fossil fuels in every aspect of food production, preservation and distribution. Take the petro-chemicals and fossil fuels out of the process and the population will revert back to what it was in the early industrial age. Further, humans will have to deal with a legacy of depleted soils and aquifers, super weeds and pests, diseases, climate change; a whole plethora of post-industrial, post-petroleum problems our ancestors may or may not have had to deal with. They'll also have to re-learn skills and reform expectations in the process, while fish and seafood sources are in decline.

I sometimes think of the scene in Easy Rider when a group of skinny, stoned-out hippies are trying to grow a garden in the desert using sticks and stuff. That's about what most have to look forward to. Some of us who've seen this coming have spent their time working towards and testing small scale methods for more intense production with relatively few inputs (permaculture and all that), but that will never feed billions on the scale of fossil-fueled industrial production. The problem with non-industrial food production is it has to happen in near real-time.

Soylent Green.... now there's an idea.

Meanwhile, I just submitted my application to the FSA for our 72' x 30' high-tunnel. Looks like a go. Just another tool in my near to mid-term tool kit. I've also started the process with the soil and water people to (hopefully) get a bit of funding to improve and expand our pond. Thinking catfish and domestic ducks for that scheme.

[killJOY]

We're not in nearly as dire a situation as you think. We don't need to wean our agricultural system from fossil fuels because fossil fuels are not going away in our lifetimes. Our fossil-fuel reliant ag system is the envy of the world and will stay that way.

[DesuMaiden]

Just wait until the population crashes to below one billion then grab a shovel or hoe.

When will this happen? I just hope it doesn't happen in my life time. I'm only 24 years, so I think I might see the end of cheap and abundant fossil fuels. And I might see the huge population drop.

[vtsnowedin]

Just wait until the population crashes to below one billion then grab a shovel or hoe.

When will this happen?

Tom Malthus one of the first to consider the problem though it would be about 1850 in 1799. Technology and fossil fuels have made him wrong for 175 years but we are running short of both. Considering human nature and the ineptness of current world leadership I would not be surprised to see a major population crash sometime in the next twenty years. How deep a crash depends on how clever we are with some predicting total extinction and others predicting a drop back to four or five billion. Being a bit pessimistic and considering the possibility of nuclear war I think a remainder population circa 2075 of one to two billion likely.

[DesuMaiden]

Just wait until the population crashes to below one billion then grab a shovel or hoe.

When will this happen?

Tom Malthus one of the first to consider the problem though it would be about 1850 in 1799. Technology and fossil fuels have made him wrong for 175 years but we are running short of both. Considering human nature and the ineptness of current world leadership I would not be surprised to see a major population crash sometime in the next twenty years. How deep a crash depends on how clever we are with some predicting total extinction and others predicting a drop back to four or five billion. Being a bit pessimistic and considering the possibility of nuclear war I think a remainder population circa 2075 of one to two billion likely.

I will still be around in 2075....possibly...I would be 85 in 2075...to see such a huge population drop would be pretty terrifying. Seeing billions of people die within the span of a few decades is pretty terrifying. Seeing the population of the earth drop by several billion within the span of a few decades is pretty terrifying. I just hope I survive the following population crash.

I am starting to doubt that we will be able to feed 7 billion people without fossil fuels. If that's true, then when we run out of fossil fuels, then billions of people will starve to death. Let's just hope I'm not one of the people who starves to death.

[vtsnowedin]

I am starting to doubt that we will be able to feed 7 billion people without fossil fuels. If that's true, then when we run out of fossil fuels, then billions of people will starve to death. Let's just hope I'm not one of the people who starves to death.

I'm planning on growing my own food and shooting anybody that tries to steal it. What is your plan?

[DesuMaiden]

I am starting to doubt that we will be able to feed 7 billion people without fossil fuels. If that's true, then when we run out of fossil fuels, then billions of people will starve to death. Let's just hope I'm not one of the people who starves to death.

I'm planning on growing my own food and shooting anybody that tries to steal it. What is your plan?

I didn't have a plan before you gave me a plan. I'm going to use your plan...grow my own food and shoot anyone who tries to steal it lol. That sounds like a pretty good plan lol.

[vtsnowedin]

I didn't have a plan before you gave me a plan. I'm going to use your plan...grow my own food and shoot anyone who tries to steal it lol. That sounds like a pretty good plan lol.

I'm not laughing! Why are you?

[DesuMaiden]

I didn't have a plan before you gave me a plan. I'm going to use your plan...grow my own food and shoot anyone who tries to steal it lol. That sounds like a pretty good plan lol.

I'm not laughing! Why are you?

I'm laughing because it is funny...

[Ibon]

to see such a huge population drop would be pretty terrifying. Seeing billions of people die within the span of a few decades is pretty terrifying. Seeing the population of the earth drop by several billion within the span of a few decades is pretty terrifying. I just hope I survive the following population crash.

Terrifying has been watching the huge population drop of flora and fauna at the hand of man these past decades as we went from 2 to 7 billion. Terrifying is right now at this moment close to our peak population. Seeing the human population drop back down to a sustainable number closer to historical norms should not be terrifying but rather give rise to a sense of relief that we are finally heading in the right direction. Desumaiden, the very things you fear are the keys to our salvation.

[furrybill]

to see such a huge population drop would be pretty terrifying. Seeing billions of people die within the span of a few decades is pretty terrifying. Seeing the population of the earth drop by several billion within the span of a few decades is pretty terrifying. I just hope I survive the following population crash.

Terrifying has been watching the huge population drop of flora and fauna at the hand of man these past decades as we went from 2 to 7 billion. Terrifying is right now at this moment close to our peak population. Seeing the human population drop back down to a sustainable number closer to historical norms should not be terrifying but rather give rise to a sense of relief that we are finally heading in the right direction. Desumaiden, the very things you fear are the keys to our salvation.

+1

For me it can't come fast enough. I pray just about every day for Ebola or something like it to go "aerosol" and wipe out billions of us in a few months. We are a cancer on this biosphere and something needs to be the chemotherapy...

I'm actually hoping for a very rapid slide down the slope because I think it would result in minimal damage to the planet and maximum damage to human populations. That will give my kids and grandkids a chance to live a decent life rather than burning in a desolate venus-like hell.

[KaiserJeep]

There you see the broad range of opinions here at PO.com. Some people are "doomers", as are you - and as most of us started out in the beginning. Some people believe in "fast crash" - and even 20 years from now would be a fast crash - while others are "slow crash". Some would gladly seek the end of humans for the sake of the planet, others like me see the planet as the temporary home of humanity, and fear only that slow crash will remove our space travel capability before we have self-sustaining habitats for humanity in space.

You are entirely correct, of course - you and my hoped-for grandkids will see the population top out and decline. Just as today you can sit down at a computer and display images from the War of Northern Agression (i.e. the Civil War), in a few decades you will see the population crash in bit-perfect digital video, as more people than are alive today fairly abruptly die. It will be the most terrible event in human history, recorded for all to see in digital archives that will preserve every detail. The stain on our souls still persists from the "Dark Ages" in Europe, when man ate man, even though we hardly remember those times, except in fairy tales like Hansel and Gretel. But the Internet will preserve the images, as well as videos on how to butcher human carcasses and recipes for "sweet breads". All the horror, preserved in digital clarity, for all time.

You sense it already, don't you? The Great Death is coming, and that is the reason Zombies are so popular in human culture today. Had those big dome "Scientists" just thought the whole concept through two centuries ago, when Reverend Malthus published his thoughts, we could have done something about that excess population, before this happened:



...and doomed all the inhabitants of Earth to starvation, disease, conflict, and death.

[DesuMaiden]

to see such a huge population drop would be pretty terrifying. Seeing billions of people die within the span of a few decades is pretty terrifying. Seeing the population of the earth drop by several billion within the span of a few decades is pretty terrifying. I just hope I survive the following population crash.

Terrifying has been watching the huge population drop of flora and fauna at the hand of man these past decades as we went from 2 to 7 billion. Terrifying is right now at this moment close to our peak population. Seeing the human population drop back down to a sustainable number closer to historical norms should not be terrifying but rather give rise to a sense of relief that we are finally heading in the right direction. Desumaiden, the very things you fear are the keys to our salvation.

In 1927, the world's population was only 2 billion. The earth's population grew by 5 billion people during the past 9 decades. That's unprecedented growth. But whenever you have a huge growth in population, there will be a huge drop in population when you run out of natural resources.

I'm just afraid of the massive civil unrest accompanying the collapse of modern civilization.

[DesuMaiden]

We're not in nearly as dire a situation as you think. We don't need to wean our agricultural system from fossil fuels because fossil fuels are not going away in our lifetimes. Our fossil-fuel reliant ag system is the envy of the world and will stay that way.

I'm 24 years old. Do you think I will see the end of the age of oil, and the end of petro-chemical based agriculture?

[MD]

Do you think I will see the end of the age of oil, and the end of petro-chemical based agriculture?

yes, and no.