Pops wrote:But we already are self regulating, Ibon, to an extent anyway. It could be better and past performance doesn't guarantee futures and all those caveats but growth is steadily slowing. If it slows fast enough we'll have to see but the inevitability of a crash is not guaranteed.
Pops, This reduction in population growth is a result of many factors; education of women in developed and some developing countries, urbanization and urban economics of supporting children, cultural shifts in recent generations as in young Japanese, Russians, Italians and Germans not wanting the burden of children and preferring to free up time and resources for pursuits of self. None of these reasons are from cultural shifts whereby nature and natural systems are consciously considered. Montequest stated that part of the problem is human hubris toward nature. I would argue that this is not part of the problem but the overarching problem that defines peak oil, climate change, loss of biodiversity and collapse of marine fisheries, draining of fresh water qualifiers, desertification, poaching of apex predators and the list goes on and on and on and on. The reasons of this recent reduction of population growth not only preserves human hubris but extends it to the point that recent generations are not even bothering to reproduce because if infringes on their personal hubris quota so to speak. This is not a reliable self regulation for staying within carrying capacity.
That does not mean to say that these trends you are pointing out may not eventually help to get us there. In nature and in evolution we see selection moving in directions that unintentionally brought great advantage. Feathers evolving for insulation that wonderfully served also as a stepping stone for flight.
So culturally the reasons for this recent reduction of population growth might also, even though they are born out of hubris, may eventually, like the feather example above, represent an important cultural stepping stone to real self regulation that will balance nature and natural ecosystems. if climate change and other consequences are severe enough we might see what initially starts out as preserving hubris eventually developing tabus around exploitation. Take a current example. It the drought in Sao Paulo in Brazil is really because of deforestation and the affects are severe enough the government might indeed slow down deforestation for reasons still of hubris in wanting to keep the urban BAU going but it would have still a positive affect on biodiversity preservation. Overshoot unfortunately backs us into dead ends though. Whatever we do like the example of Brazil cutting back deforestation, in the end it only serves to extend the resilience of the current consumption paradigm. This will go on until the low hanging fruit of self regulation for hubris reasons starts to dry up and consequences then start really closing options. That is what happens in overshoot. Goats run out of grass and end up eating newspapers.
That is when we will finally learn that ultimately the laws of nature are absolute and non negotiable. Montequests dogma if you want to call it that. Because the process of self regulation, if we are smart enough to preserve civilization, is really about a step by step process of re incorporating these natural laws into the three pillars of our civilization ; our economic system, our political system and our religious institutions, none of which historically ever had to self regulate to stay within carrying capacity. All three of these institutions are now going to get hammered by consequences.
For my grandchildrens sake I wish that famine and disease was not part of the equation but for my species sake I have learned to revere the coming of The Overshoot Predator. No ideology to date has been able to challenge our hubris toward nature. You guys miss the point if you think this OSP is just an anthropomorphic creation in my head. It isn't. It is real and will be the greatest teacher for mankind in the decades and centuries ahead and truly represents the only catalyst around that will bring about genuine self regulation where nature and natural systems regains the center currently occupied by Kudzu Ape.
The current trend of population reduction you note Pops can then piggy back right on these consequences if we are wise. Otherwise industrial civilization will end. If it does no big deal. If some us make it through then humans might truly one day become an exceptional species; the first sentient species to design a culture to stay within carrying capacity while taming its predators. Don't be fooled to think we are anywhere near achieving this. No where close.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
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