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How do we create sustainable agriculture?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 02:25:55

MonteQuest wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote: By the way, the world reached 1 billion people in 1804 and not 1850s.


Depends on which link you click on in a google search. 8)

According to this graph,

http://www.historyfuturenow.com/wp/wp-c ... story2.jpg

the population reached 1 billion in 1804 and not 1850.
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 07:20:19

MonteQuest wrote:Naturally decrease? The only way exponentially growing populations "naturally" decrease is by food scarcity or increased predation. Humans aren't exempt.


A sweeping generalization Monte, good copy but not very enlightening. The root cause of the failure of many predictions made hereabouts over the years has been reliance on dogmatic just such pronouncements. The world is more complicated than a bumper sticker, LOL


2.1 is considered the replacement birth rate:

With its new figure of 1.86, the United States looks like it will lag behind Australia (1.92), France (2.01), Sweden (1.91) and the United Kingdom (1.90) but have higher fertility than Brazil (1.81), China (1.66), Japan (1.41) and Russia (1.59), according to 2012 data from the World Bank.


Consider the Russian depopulation, the mortality rate is higher now than it was before the split yet the birth rate is very low; and though they are an oil based economy. Germany, Japan and Italy are all on the verge of depopulation as would be the US if we didn't need gardeners and nannies.

Except for RU, those are hardly places where people are starving or being eaten by predators (I guess you can count vodka as a predator, LOL). The US has been reducing per capita energy consumption for a while now at the same time our birth rate is declining.

I'm a great believer in the idea that humans are in the same boat as other organisms, but until some other animal signs in here and tells me different, I'll continue to argue that we operate on a slightly higher conscious level than pond scum - maybe not much, but a little. LOL
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 07:32:03

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 07:54:18

I know the whole population thing is a little off topic but I just came across this that I thought was pretty interesting:
http://reductionism.net.seanic.net/bruc ... ovations(t).html

--
And one more:
Achieving Sustainable Societies: Lessons from Modelling the Ancient Maya
http://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/node/237204
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 10:43:15

DesuMaiden wrote: According to this graph,

http://www.historyfuturenow.com/wp/wp-c ... story2.jpg

the population reached 1 billion in 1804 and not 1850.


And according to other google links, it was 1850 and 700 million in 1804. :roll:

How productive do you think it is to debate this? To what end?
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 10:48:20

Pops wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:Naturally decrease? The only way exponentially growing populations "naturally" decrease is by food scarcity or increased predation. Humans aren't exempt.


A sweeping generalization Monte, good copy but not very enlightening. The root cause of the failure of many predictions made hereabouts over the years has been reliance on dogmatic just such pronouncements. The world is more complicated than a bumper sticker, LOL


That isn't a bumper sticker slogan, that is the laws of biology. And it isn't a generalization, it is the same for all organisms.

I'm a great believer in the idea that humans are in the same boat as other organisms, but until some other animal signs in here and tells me different, I'll continue to argue that we operate on a slightly higher conscious level than pond scum - maybe not much, but a little. LOL


But yet, we haven't ever demonstrated that a higher consciousness leads to anything but the subversion of nature.

Part of our problem is human hubris towards nature.
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 11:42:33

MonteQuest wrote:
Part of our problem is human hubris towards nature.


Yes. And the big question that hangs over the 21st century is if the consequences of overshoot will have the power to make human societies self regulate their population and consumption to stay within carrying capacity.

We have shown no evidence to date but neither have we, on a global scale, suffered the severity of consequences to test us. Those consequences of course for me include the primary drivers of population reduction, famine and disease, along with whatever potential wisdom of self regulation that these consequences afterwards instill. That is where the middle ground lies between Pops and Montequest on this question as I see it. Without the Overshoot Predator we wont self regulate. I will maintain a pretty strict dogmatic position on this point until evidence proves otherwise :)
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 11:44:30

MonteQuest wrote:That isn't a bumper sticker slogan, that is the laws of biology. And it isn't a generalization, it is the same for all organisms.

Loretta broke the law.
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 11:51:51

But we already are self regulating, Ibon, to an extent anyway. It could be better and past performance doesn't guarantee futures and all those caveats but growth is steadily slowing. If it slows fast enough we'll have to see but the inevitability of a crash is not guaranteed.

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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 12:02:32

The population will crash downwards when oil becomes too expensive to afford. This might happen sooner than you think. 7 billion people is simply not sustainable in the long-term. There is 5 to 6 billion more people on this planet than what's sustainable all thanks to oil and improved medical conditions.
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 14:44:51

Pops wrote:But we already are self regulating, Ibon, to an extent anyway. It could be better and past performance doesn't guarantee futures and all those caveats but growth is steadily slowing. If it slows fast enough we'll have to see but the inevitability of a crash is not guaranteed.


Only through Demographic Transition fueled by cheap, readily available fossil fuels has the fertility rate dropped.

Do you actually believe that mechanism will continue in a peak oil world?

10 years ago when I wrote about this issue, the world population growth rate was 1.14%. Now, ten years later, how much has it decreased in this steady slowing? Not one bit. I just googled it and the rate is still 1.14% which signals a doubling of the population to 14.4 billion by 2075.

Pops, populations in overshoot always crash, without exception. When the temporary food source is gone, the population rapidly drops to a sustainable level or sometimes lower. That's basic biology and that fact hasn't changed over the last ten years.

When people say, "the inevitability of a crash is not guaranteed" they are denying science. And if not, I have yet to see a plausible pathway to avoid it. Birth control? Pfft! We should know by now that even if zero population growth (replacement) were instituted today, due to population demographics, it would take 75 years to see a net drop in the population.

To avoid the inevitability of a crash, I guess we could increase the death rate and mimic nature. :roll:

No? Well, then I guess a crash is in the cards.

Btw, I like my chart better than yours. :)
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 15:16:26

Pops wrote:But we already are self regulating, Ibon, to an extent anyway. It could be better and past performance doesn't guarantee futures and all those caveats but growth is steadily slowing. If it slows fast enough we'll have to see but the inevitability of a crash is not guaranteed.


Pops, This reduction in population growth is a result of many factors; education of women in developed and some developing countries, urbanization and urban economics of supporting children, cultural shifts in recent generations as in young Japanese, Russians, Italians and Germans not wanting the burden of children and preferring to free up time and resources for pursuits of self. None of these reasons are from cultural shifts whereby nature and natural systems are consciously considered. Montequest stated that part of the problem is human hubris toward nature. I would argue that this is not part of the problem but the overarching problem that defines peak oil, climate change, loss of biodiversity and collapse of marine fisheries, draining of fresh water qualifiers, desertification, poaching of apex predators and the list goes on and on and on and on. The reasons of this recent reduction of population growth not only preserves human hubris but extends it to the point that recent generations are not even bothering to reproduce because if infringes on their personal hubris quota so to speak. This is not a reliable self regulation for staying within carrying capacity.

That does not mean to say that these trends you are pointing out may not eventually help to get us there. In nature and in evolution we see selection moving in directions that unintentionally brought great advantage. Feathers evolving for insulation that wonderfully served also as a stepping stone for flight.

So culturally the reasons for this recent reduction of population growth might also, even though they are born out of hubris, may eventually, like the feather example above, represent an important cultural stepping stone to real self regulation that will balance nature and natural ecosystems. if climate change and other consequences are severe enough we might see what initially starts out as preserving hubris eventually developing tabus around exploitation. Take a current example. It the drought in Sao Paulo in Brazil is really because of deforestation and the affects are severe enough the government might indeed slow down deforestation for reasons still of hubris in wanting to keep the urban BAU going but it would have still a positive affect on biodiversity preservation. Overshoot unfortunately backs us into dead ends though. Whatever we do like the example of Brazil cutting back deforestation, in the end it only serves to extend the resilience of the current consumption paradigm. This will go on until the low hanging fruit of self regulation for hubris reasons starts to dry up and consequences then start really closing options. That is what happens in overshoot. Goats run out of grass and end up eating newspapers.

That is when we will finally learn that ultimately the laws of nature are absolute and non negotiable. Montequests dogma if you want to call it that. Because the process of self regulation, if we are smart enough to preserve civilization, is really about a step by step process of re incorporating these natural laws into the three pillars of our civilization ; our economic system, our political system and our religious institutions, none of which historically ever had to self regulate to stay within carrying capacity. All three of these institutions are now going to get hammered by consequences.

For my grandchildrens sake I wish that famine and disease was not part of the equation but for my species sake I have learned to revere the coming of The Overshoot Predator. No ideology to date has been able to challenge our hubris toward nature. You guys miss the point if you think this OSP is just an anthropomorphic creation in my head. It isn't. It is real and will be the greatest teacher for mankind in the decades and centuries ahead and truly represents the only catalyst around that will bring about genuine self regulation where nature and natural systems regains the center currently occupied by Kudzu Ape.

The current trend of population reduction you note Pops can then piggy back right on these consequences if we are wise. Otherwise industrial civilization will end. If it does no big deal. If some us make it through then humans might truly one day become an exceptional species; the first sentient species to design a culture to stay within carrying capacity while taming its predators. Don't be fooled to think we are anywhere near achieving this. No where close.
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 15:22:50

This is for Desumaiden and others who are new to this topic.

Montequest mentioned that demographics are taking us to 9 billion regardless of what we do. Here is a great Ted Talks that explains this. Please watch it in order to broaden your understanding about population dynamics.

http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_o ... ion_growth
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 17:26:06

Ibon wrote:Montequest mentioned that demographics are taking us to 9 billion regardless of what we do. Here is a great Ted Talks that explains this. Please watch it in order to broaden your understanding about population dynamics.


From your link:

The world's population will grow to 9 billion over the next 50 years — and only by raising the living standards of the poorest can we check population growth. We can't have the world's poor still looking for food and shoes."


Demographic Transition must take place. Does anyone really think it will?
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 18:04:14

Ibon wrote:Pops, This reduction in population growth is a result of many factors; education of women in developed and some developing countries, urbanization and urban economics of supporting children, cultural shifts in recent generations as in young Japanese, Russians, Italians and Germans not wanting the burden of children and preferring to free up time and resources for pursuits of self. None of these reasons are from cultural shifts whereby nature and natural systems are consciously considered.


I'm pretty sure the fundamental change happened just as shown on that chart in the '50-'60's concurrent with the introduction of synthetic hormones, it is way too sharp a transition from increase to decrease to be a cultural shift. There was no global cultural shift toward smaller families that suddenly overcame eons of high output baby-making in 1964.

Not without the Pill, anyway, arguably one of the the biggest hits of the 20th century, don't you agree? But if by education you mean women learning about the fact they actually had gained a vote on whether or not to practice some type of modern birth control, then I agree.

If it had not been for the Pill especially and other forms to a lesser extent, we would truly be in a world of hurt because birth rates would not have fallen nearly enough to bend the curve.

I'm pretty sure we won't automatically develop amnesia when decline sets in and forget everything we've learned re: birth control. As getting by gets harder I'm pretty sure the birth rate will fall further and faster, just as happened in Russia post collapse. Maternal mortality rose there due to declining quality in medicine and the pregnancy and birth rate plummeted - not sure if there might have been something to do with birth control involved there as well?


And you (at least) know that should not be construed as some rainbow colored unicorn fart, any decline in population is obviously the death knell of BAU and certainly there will be serious hardship as the energy slaves turn over the oars.

I'm merely providing my normal counterpoint to the oft repeated overshoot mantra. :wink:
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 18:25:33

Pops wrote: I'm merely providing my normal counterpoint to the oft repeated overshoot mantra. :wink:


If frogs had wings they wouldn't bump their ass is hardly a counterpoint. :wink:
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 19:05:54

I have to admit losing my momentum after your posting of the Cho-Cho-Chart, definitive evidence We're Surely Dead.
:|
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 22:14:59

The point is that lower birth rates involve factors that generally lead to higher resource consumption (e.g., better education, etc., that lead to more earnings, and thus more opportunities to spend on goods and services), an issue that is connected to overpopulation.
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 00:05:01

Pops wrote:I have to admit losing my momentum after your posting of the Cho-Cho-Chart, definitive evidence We're Surely Dead.
:|


Love ya, Pops. That brought a big grin to my face. :lol:
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Re: How do we create sustainable agriculture?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 00:08:16

ralfy wrote:The point is that lower birth rates involve factors that generally lead to higher resource consumption (e.g., better education, etc., that lead to more earnings, and thus more opportunities to spend on goods and services), an issue that is connected to overpopulation.


Yes, but the other way around. Higher resource consumption (e.g., better education, etc., leads to lower birth rates.
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