high oil prices DIDN'T increase oil production by much

[AAA]

Has anyone else noticed that OF2 never gives much if any of his opinion? OF2 provides facts. Many times those facts are derived from theoildrum, EIA, etc...

People that argue with OF2 RARELY if ever have any evidence to prove OF2 wrong.

What does this mean? OF2 has more credibility than most all po members.

[Schmuto]

This is an important point.

I've read arguments that, when prices started ramping up in 07, OPEC was able to ramp up production but that the time required to ramp up production prevented them from doing so before the price dropped off.

I call nonsense on that.

Do you understand what it means to "ramp up production"? Do you work in the oil industry?

I think every PO.com member should read a basic book about petroleum exploration and production.

Ramping up production does take years and for major projects it takes decades. How long did it take Thunderhorse to get completed from the initial idea to first production? More than 18 months my friend.

Answer to angry one, above, and The Troll:

Troll - The graph was posted already - from June 05 until today OPEC has only increased production one time, and then only by a paltry 1/2 of 1 percent. They have decreased production in that same time period by a cumulative amount of about 6%.

So I say it again, despite its obvious nature:

If they had 3 years from 05 to the peak price in mid 08 to increase production and cash in on high oil prices, and they did not, the only reasonable conclusion I can draw is that - they could not increase production.

You, and others, keep repeating, "it's a "ramp up" and it can't be done all at once.

Apparently, it can't be done at all over a 3 year period.

And, if you can't raise production over a 3 year period when prices spike to all time highs, then, it seems manifest, you really don't have a 'reserve' capacity at all. What you have is good intentions.

And the road to post-peak oil hell is paved knee-deep in good intentions.

[rockdoc123]

And, if you can't raise production over a 3 year period when prices spike to all time highs, then, it seems manifest, you really don't have a 'reserve' capacity at all. What you have is good intentions.

This is rather silly and shows a complete lack of knowledge about the oil industry in general. The major projects in Saudi (as an example) were announced back in 2006 with clear timelines that recognized how long it would take to deliver the appropriate field kit, drill the appropriate number of wells, build pipelines etc. They have stuck to that schedule quite well with the exception of Manifa which has been put on hold simply because they had that opportunity as prices were falling. This isn't a tap that you turn on. Compressors were anywhere from 1-2 years backordered in 2007, delivery on tubulars was at least a year out from a factory run. Even at these shallow depths the MRC wells can take 50 days or so to drill and complete and they have to drill hundreds of them for the various projects.

Optimistic average turnaround projections from discovery to first production are 5 years in the industry for onshore projects where there is considerable facilities construction required and anywhere from 5 to 10 years for the deepwater.

[AAA]

Answer to angry one, above, and The Troll:

Troll - The graph was posted already - from June 05 until today OPEC has only increased production one time, and then only by a paltry 1/2 of 1 percent. They have decreased production in that same time period by a cumulative amount of about 6%.

So I say it again, despite its obvious nature:

If they had 3 years from 05 to the peak price in mid 08 to increase production and cash in on high oil prices, and they did not, the only reasonable conclusion I can draw is that - they could not increase production.

You, and others, keep repeating, "it's a "ramp up" and it can't be done all at once.

Apparently, it can't be done at all over a 3 year period.

And, if you can't raise production over a 3 year period when prices spike to all time highs, then, it seems manifest, you really don't have a 'reserve' capacity at all. What you have is good intentions.

And the road to post-peak oil hell is paved knee-deep in good intentions.

And how long have you worked in the oil industry? Another oil expert who doesn't work in the oil industry.

This is why I am taking a break

[OilFinder2]

Troll - The graph was posted already - from June 05 until today OPEC has only increased production one time, and then only by a paltry 1/2 of 1 percent.

It is obvious Schmuto is incapable of reading graphs. Please take notice, as AAA mentioned above, that this is not my graphic, it is from The Oil Drum (a peak oil site, I need not remind you), which in turn was derived from EIA (or IEA?) data.



And as I showed with these two overlapping graphics, world crude oil production (largely driven by OPEC) increased and decreased pretty closely in tandem with rising and falling oil prices.

They have decreased production in that same time period by a cumulative amount of about 6%.

Typical dimwit reply: Since last July they have decrease production because the price crashed. Duh.

If they had 3 years from 05 to the peak price in mid 08 to increase production and cash in on high oil prices, and they did not,

Except that they did.

the only reasonable conclusion I can draw is that - they could not increase production.

No, the only reasonable conclusion anyone can draw here is that Schmuto is blind as a bat and/or does not want to believe that oil production rises and falls in response to price rises and falls.

BTW, thank you AAA. Enjoy your vacation. In the meantime I intend to stick around and keep telling these people what they don't want to hear. It's rather fun, actually!

[dorlomin]

. In the meantime I intend to stick around and keep telling these people what they don't want to hear. It's rather fun, actually!

Just a couple of example of what people dont want to hear.

So, 44.55 billion metric tons = 311.85 billion barrels
200-250 billion metric tons = 1.4 trillion - 1.75 trillion barrels.

Abundance - what a concept!

One other note: As I look at Turkmenistan on a map, it makes me wonder if the entire Caspian Sea basin is some sort of giant hydrocarbon trap.

Vast amounts of utter shite, delusional ramblings and ludicrous speculation.

How many trillions of barrels of oil are you claiming to have 'found' now boy? What is it a new Saudi Arabia off the coast of Indonesia, Turkmenistan having 1.75 trillion barrels, another Saudi Arabia in western Iraq (that bunch of bull from a Chalabai no less)... the list goes on (and on and on and on and on and on and on and on.......)


You are a laughingstock and a joke.

Oh why dont you explain your whole 'Turkmenistan is an oil trap' theory to us all.

[Schmuto]

And, if you can't raise production over a 3 year period when prices spike to all time highs, then, it seems manifest, you really don't have a 'reserve' capacity at all. What you have is good intentions.

This is rather silly and shows a complete lack of knowledge about the oil industry in general.

Oh please.

It's very simple.

OPEC (and other cornus) keep saying that they have "reserve" production capacity or "extra" production capacity of several million barrels per day.

Well, how is that defined?

If it's defined as "it'll take more than 3 years to get out of the ground," then that makes my point - it's not a reserve at all - it's a potential expansion in the distant future.

Folks keep saying, "it's not a valve you turn on."

Ok. I buy it. But then lets stop calling it "spare capacity."

If you can't bring it on line within 3 years, then it's not "spare" at all. It's like having a "spare tire" that takes a week to get to your car after you get a flat. What the hell good is it, and is it really "spare" at all?

There are two things working against the notion of "spare" capacity.

First - if you're calling your 3 year and out efforts to produce oil "spare," then are you factoring in your losses between now and then?

Obviously, if you could just turn on the tap and kick out another 1MBD we'd all agree - yep, that's spare right thare.

But if we have to wait 3 whole years for you to turn it on, then don't we have to factor in decline rates across OPEC?

And if OPEC is going to lose 3 million barrels a day of production in the next 3 years and the KSA says they are able to produce 3MBD more, but not for 3 years, then isn't it delusional to say that there is some kind of spare capacity there?

As for people looking to "oil insiders" for guidance.

Call them your experts wherever you will find them.

As near as I can tell, most people on the inside of the oil industry are very happy to either be ignorant about Peak Oil or deny that it's an issue - the fact that they know various tid bits about drilling or such is meaningless to me.

It's really very simple -

there is little or no transparency with OPEC. Nobody on this board knows jack squat about true production capacity.

I'd say that puts us on equal factual footing.

My analysis is simple - the KSA is lying about "reserve capacity" and all the new projects are all overblown horsesh-it until they put up the numbers.

If you don't agree with that, prove it wrong.

Oh wait, you can't. Even if you are an "oil insider" with a "job in the oil industry."

Final note. When I first came across PO in 05, the first douche in the oil industry with whom I spoke assured me I was being paranoid and that there was enough oil on the "continental shelf" off of California for several hundred years.

[kiwichick]

exactly pstarr

if they is plenty of oil in pennslyvania or texas why get excited

about drilling in the arctic circle????

[kiwichick]

schmuto; ex graph

was there an article with the graph?

[Schmuto]

schmuto; ex graph

was there an article with the graph?

Yes, there was, but Darn It! I did not link it originally and now I can't find it.

wait . . . got it .

The story ran on the wires, and many sites have copies of it . . .

http://www.worldfutureenergysummit.com/ ... spx?Id=142

[energyhoggin]

Maybe they wanted price to go up so they did not produce more

Because of what the oil shocks of 73 and 79 especially did to the world economy OPEC has had a policy from then till now of keeping the price from going too high and crashing the world economy. The fact that prices went to $147/bbl indicates they have lost control of prices, and the fact that after $147/bbl it fell to $35/bbl argues the same thing. They don't want it too cheap, or too expensive. Too low and they are giving away their future, too high and they crash the economy and can't sell as much.

i wonder what would happen if opec cutt production to nothing..lol..i wonder how long opec would be around

[pstarr]

And, if you can't raise production over a 3 year period when prices spike to all time highs, then, it seems manifest, you really don't have a 'reserve' capacity at all. What you have is good intentions.

This is rather silly and shows a complete lack of knowledge about the oil industry in general.

Oh please.

It's very simple.

OPEC (and other cornus) keep saying that they have "reserve" production capacity or "extra" production capacity of several million barrels per day.

Well, how is that defined?

If it's defined as "it'll take more than 3 years to get out of the ground," then that makes my point - it's not a reserve at all - it's a potential expansion in the distant future.

Folks keep saying, "it's not a valve you turn on."

Ok. I buy it. But then lets stop calling it "spare capacity."

If you can't bring it on line within 3 years, then it's not "spare" at all. It's like having a "spare tire" that takes a week to get to your car after you get a flat. What the hell good is it, and is it really "spare" at all?

There are two things working against the notion of "spare" capacity.

First - if you're calling your 3 year and out efforts to produce oil "spare," then are you factoring in your losses between now and then?

Obviously, if you could just turn on the tap and kick out another 1MBD we'd all agree - yep, that's spare right thare.

But if we have to wait 3 whole years for you to turn it on, then don't we have to factor in decline rates across OPEC?

And if OPEC is going to lose 3 million barrels a day of production in the next 3 years and the KSA says they are able to produce 3MBD more, but not for 3 years, then isn't it delusional to say that there is some kind of spare capacity there?

As for people looking to "oil insiders" for guidance.

Call them your experts wherever you will find them.

As near as I can tell, most people on the inside of the oil industry are very happy to either be ignorant about Peak Oil or deny that it's an issue - the fact that they know various tid bits about drilling or such is meaningless to me.

It's really very simple -

there is little or no transparency with OPEC. Nobody on this board knows jack squat about true production capacity.

I'd say that puts us on equal factual footing.

My analysis is simple - the KSA is lying about "reserve capacity" and all the new projects are all overblown horsesh-it until they put up the numbers.

If you don't agree with that, prove it wrong.

Oh wait, you can't. Even if you are an "oil insider" with a "job in the oil industry."

Final note. When I first came across PO in 05, the first douche in the oil industry with whom I spoke assured me I was being paranoid and that there was enough oil on the "continental shelf" off of California for several hundred years.

You may be a Drama Queen sometimes but you sure are right about peak oil

[Schmuto]

You may be a Drama Queen sometimes but you sure are right about peak oil

Schmuto on a bad day . . . ---->

[rangerone314]

Troll - The graph was posted already - from June 05 until today OPEC has only increased production one time, and then only by a paltry 1/2 of 1 percent.

It is obvious Schmuto is incapable of reading graphs. Please take notice, as AAA mentioned above, that this is not my graphic, it is from The Oil Drum (a peak oil site, I need not remind you), which in turn was derived from EIA (or IEA?) data.



And as I showed with these two overlapping graphics, world crude oil production (largely driven by OPEC) increased and decreased pretty closely in tandem with rising and falling oil prices.

They have decreased production in that same time period by a cumulative amount of about 6%.

Typical dimwit reply: Since last July they have decrease production because the price crashed. Duh.

If they had 3 years from 05 to the peak price in mid 08 to increase production and cash in on high oil prices, and they did not,

Except that they did.

the only reasonable conclusion I can draw is that - they could not increase production.

No, the only reasonable conclusion anyone can draw here is that Schmuto is blind as a bat and/or does not want to believe that oil production rises and falls in response to price rises and falls.

BTW, thank you AAA. Enjoy your vacation. In the meantime I intend to stick around and keep telling these people what they don't want to hear. It's rather fun, actually!

For the graphs to be more accurate of reality and less dramatic, the Y-axis should start at zero, or the graphs should be based on percentages of 100, to show the true relationship of proportional increases or decreases.

Also a 10% increase in production over 4.5 years? That averages to about 2% increase in production per year... it should be interesting to see what the next 4.5 years bring, as well as the oil prices that will occur.

[TheDude]

Note how the swings in production were greater until '05; afterwards this shows erosion of spare capacity, whether from demand exceeding supply or from geologic decline/lack of investment. The EIA data for that can be found in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, data is in the sidebar on the right.



The forecast is predicated on Khurais delivering as promised.

Also note that in production '05-'07 the trend was manifestly downwards. Khebab has done much more detailed analysis of this statistically.

This is all liquids, too. WTRG has excellent graphs of petroleum History and Analysis. Wish Williams would update his stuff.