Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4 (merged) Archived

[Daniel_Plainview]

Economist Richard Duncan: Civilization May Not Survive ‘Death Spiral’

Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America’s $16 trillion federal debt has escalated into a “death spiral, “as he told CNBC. And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn’t “think our civilization could survive it.”



And Duncan is not alone in warning that the U.S. economy may go into a “death spiral.”

Since the recession, noted economists including Laurence Kotlikoff, a former member of President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, have come to similar conclusions. Kotlikoff estimates the true fiscal gap is $211 trillion when unfunded entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are included.

However, while the debt crisis numbers are well known to most Americans, the economy hasn’t suffered a major correction for almost 4 years.

So the questions remain: Is the threat of collapse for real? And if so, when?

A team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts believes they have proof that the threat is indeed real – and the danger imminent.

One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings:

“We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guarantees they’re going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible. And what’s really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn’t limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well.”

According to Martenson: “These systems could all implode at the same time. Food, water, energy, money. Everything.”

Another member of this team, Keith Fitz-Gerald, the president of The Fitz-Gerald Group, went on to explain their discoveries.

“What this pattern represents is a dangerous countdown clock that’s quickly approaching zero. And when it does, the resulting chaos is going to crush Americans,” Fitz-Gerald says.

Dr. Kent Moors, an adviser to 16 world governments on energy issues as well as a member of two U.S. State Department task forces on energy also voiced concerns over what he and his colleagues uncovered.

“Most frightening of all is how this exact same pattern keeps appearing in virtually every system critical to our society and way of life,” Dr. Moors stated.

The work of this team garnered such attention, they were brought in front of the United Nations, UK Parliament, and numerous Fortune 500 companies to share much of their findings.

“It’s a pattern that’s hard to see unless you understand the way a catastrophe like this gains traction,” Dr. Moors says. “At first, it’s almost impossible to perceive. Everything looks fine, just like in every pyramid scheme. Yet the insidious growth of the virus keeps doubling in size, over and over again – in shorter and shorter periods of time – until it hits unsustainable levels. And it collapses the system.”

Martenson points to the U.S. total credit market debt as an example of this unnerving pattern.

“For 30 years – from the 1940s through the 1970s – our total credit market debt was moderate and entirely reasonable,” he says. “But then in seven years, from 1970 to 1977, it quickly doubled. And then it doubled again in seven more years. Then five years to double a third time. And then it doubled two more times after that.

“Where we were sitting at a total credit market debt that was 158% larger than our GDP in the early 1940s… By 2011 that figure was 357%.”

Dr. Moors warns this type of unsustainable road to collapse can be seen today in our energy, food and water production. All are tightly connected and contributing to the economic disaster that lies directly ahead. ***

[OilFinder2]

I now await the inevitable articles from Zerohedge and elsewhere telling us the number is really worse than it looks.

Sooooo predictable! Certain doomers here could never admit a data point came in good, or at least halfway decent! Never, never, never! Won't happen! Any data point unabashedly good gets completely ignored, and any other halfway decent data point with a few disappointing aspects here and there get those disappointing aspects ADVERTISED AS IF THE END OF THE WORLD OR AT LEAST ANOTHER RECESSION WERE IMMINENT, with completely predictable articles from Zerohedge or Karl Denninger or Mish or some other doomer-tending writer. It's blatantly obvious these people want the economy to crash, and as evidence of that, in spite of the numerous times I've pointed that out, they have yet to deny it. They would rather see people unemployed en masse with widespread suffering than to see a recovery occur not on their terms. I have one word for people like this:

[OilFinder2]

U.S. Stocks, Metals Gain After Jobs Data; Treasuries Drop

U.S. stocks rallied to the highest level since May, commodities gained and Treasuries declined as American payrolls climbed more than forecast. Italian and Spanish notes jumped as German coalition politicians signaled support of the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 1.9 percent to 1,390.99 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 2.4 percent. Ten-year Treasury yields added nine basis points to 1.57 percent, while Italian two-year debt sank 61 basis points to 3.13 percent. S&P’s GSCI Commodity Index advanced 2.8 percent, its biggest gain in a month. The dollar weakened against most major counterparts and a gauge of U.S. corporate debt fell the most in a week.

U.S. payrolls climbed in July, boosted by a pickup in employment at automakers, even as the jobless rate unexpectedly rose to a five-month high, Labor Department figures showed. Italian and Spanish two-year notes jumped as members of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition parties signaled they won’t stand in the way of ECB chief Mario Draghi’s plan to buy government bonds.

“We haven’t seen an upside surprise in a while and that’s what the market is reacting to,” said Michael Mullaney, who helps manage $9.5 billion as chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust in Boston. “It’s still not strong enough to make a real dent in the overall growth of the economy and it’s not weak enough to get the Fed acting.”

Payrolls increased 163,000 following a revised 64,000 rise in June that was less than initially reported, according to the Labor Department. The median estimate of 89 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a gain of 100,000. Unemployment rose to 8.3 percent.

[...]

[peripato]

So, let me get this straight. Unemployment actually rose in America, yet the stock market didn't fall, but rallied because the eCONomy is doing so well. Obviously there must be another bailout coming soon from someone, somewhere for delusion to reach such dizzying heights.

If this little fact doesn't offer sufficient proof that stocks are rallying in anticipation of "mo' free money", then perhaps these will...

Final PMI Data Confirm Global Downturn

UK manufacturing PMI - worst contraction since March of 2009

Euro Area Manufacturing PMI – manufacturing recession deepens further

German manufacturing PMI – steepest fall in output since April of 2009

French manufacturing PMI – falls to a 38 month low as pace of decline accelerates

Italy's manufacturing PMI – a three month low, employment contracts at sharpest pace since October of 2009

China, HSBC PMI – first increase in output in five months, but final data worse than flash PMI, remains in contraction territory overall

Spain's manufacturing PMI – output, new orders and employment all continue to contract sharply.

Japan's manufacturing PMI – sharpest deterioration since April of 2011 (n.b., that was right after the tsunami)

US ISM Report – contraction slows somewhat (49.8 from 49.7), a mixed bag.

Wow, just keep printing money central banker dudes at near zero interest rates, to paper over the growing holes in the world economy. Who'd have guessed that economics was so easy, why didn't anyone ever think of this before! I mean what could possibly go wrong?

[OilFinder2]

^
Those are all manufacturing PMI's. In most nations, manufacturing is a minority of output. If you include the service PMI's ...

JP Morgan's Single-Best Proxy For Global GDP Growth Just Turned Up

JP Morgan's global all-industry PMI output index, which they describe as the "single best proxy for global GDP growth" rose 1.4 points to 51.7, halting a 4 month decline.

"The results offer a bit of a breather for this key barometer of global growth, halting a four-month slide," wrote JP Morgan's David Hensley.

The growth was driven by a big jump in services PMI, which overcame weaker manufacturing numbers.

Here's the chart:

Not a big uptick, but at least it breaks a 4-month downward trend.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Spain poised to seek €300bn bailout

Mariano Rajoy, Spain's prime minister, steered the embattled nation towards a €300bn(£237bn) bailout yesterday as he said he was ready to act "in the best interests of the Spanish people".

Mr Rajoy, who is struggling to convince dubious markets that he can bring Spain's deficit back under control, has already asked for €100bn from Europe's bailout pot for its debt-laden banking system. He inched closer to seeking a full-blown rescue yesterday as he said Madrid would have to carefully examine the conditions of such a bailout.

His comments came after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi disappointed markets on Thursday by failing to deliver immediate aid to turbulent debt markets, which have pushed Spain's cost of borrowing to unsustainably high levels.

Mr Draghi said the central bank was considering buying up the debt of eurozone strugglers, but crucially he also stressed that nations themselves would have to formally request a bailout from the European Financial Stability Facility. This is likely to come with harsh financial conditions and austerity measures.

Marchel Alexandrovich, an analyst at Jefferies, said: "What Draghi has basically indicated is that the problem in the bond markets has to get considerably worse before the ECB steps in to help."

...Sources said Spain had for the first time conceded at a meeting between Luis de Guindos, its economy minister, and German counterpart Wolfgang Schäuble it might need a full bailout worth €300bn, although Rajoy's office denied the talks.

Spain already complies with stringent EU and IMF demands to reform its economy, and last month announced a €65bn package of tax hikes and spending cuts.

A full-scale bailout would be a huge political embarrassment for Mr Rajoy, who claimed "victory" in June after securing a €100bn recapitalisation of its struggling banks. Spain's banks are laden with almost €200bn in sour loans from a bust property boom, and the government was forced to nationalise the fourth-biggest lender Bankia in June.

Madrid fears it could be asked for further reforms of the pension system – the last campaign pledge the centre-right prime minister has not been forced to break since winning office less than a year ago.

Any further cuts are likely to trigger more protests after hundreds of thousand of Spaniards took the streets to protests against austerity measures.

Alongside its banking woes, Spain is in the grip of a double-dip recession, and several of its regions are likely to seek central government support to avoid going bankrupt.

Let's summarize:

1. 2 months ago, Spain said it only needed a mere €30bn bailout
2. 1 month ago, Spain desperately sought a €100bn bailout
3. Today, Spain is poised to seek a €300bn bailout
4. So, what can we expect in a few months? Meanwhile, Italy is on the bailout radar screen.

[Daniel_Plainview]

I now await the inevitable articles from Zerohedge and elsewhere telling us the number is really worse than it looks.

Sooooo predictable! Certain doomers here could never admit a data point came in good, or at least halfway decent! Never, never, never! Won't happen! Any data point unabashedly good gets completely ignored, and any other halfway decent data point with a few disappointing aspects here and there get those disappointing aspects ADVERTISED AS IF THE END OF THE WORLD OR AT LEAST ANOTHER RECESSION WERE IMMINENT, with completely predictable articles from Zerohedge or Karl Denninger or Mish or some other doomer-tending writer. It's blatantly obvious these people want the economy to crash, and as evidence of that, in spite of the numerous times I've pointed that out, they have yet to deny it. They would rather see people unemployed en masse with widespread suffering than to see a recovery occur not on their terms. I have one word for people like this:

Huh? Our analysis comes directly from your beloved US govt -- namely, from Table A9 from the Household Survey, and from the seasonal and birth/death adjustments. According to Table A9, in July the number of part-time jobs added was 31K, whilst full time jobs plunged 197,000. IOW, this was a horrendously bad unemployment report, and shows how seriously entrenched the trend toward increasing part-time workers and decreasing full-time workers has become. DO YOU UNDERSTAND NOW?

Once again, OF2, you've shown that you're SO DESPERATE to cling to any Cornucopian fantasy that you'll eagerly lap up any govt headline without peering into the details.

You've been claiming a "recovery" for almost 4 years ... and each time it's conclusively demonstrated that your "recovery" is a hollow mirage.

[peripato]

^
Those are all manufacturing PMI's. In most nations, manufacturing is a minority of output. If you include the service PMI's ...

JP Morgan's Single-Best Proxy For Global GDP Growth Just Turned Up

JP Morgan's global all-industry PMI output index, which they describe as the "single best proxy for global GDP growth" rose 1.4 points to 51.7, halting a 4 month decline.

"The results offer a bit of a breather for this key barometer of global growth, halting a four-month slide," wrote JP Morgan's David Hensley.

The growth was driven by a big jump in services PMI, which overcame weaker manufacturing numbers.

Here's the chart:

Not a big uptick, but at least it breaks a 4-month downward trend.

That service economy model thingy sure did work out swell, didn't it? I mean, who'd have thunk that just "taking in each others washing", not saving or capital investment, but rather consuming beyond our means with unearned money, would actually backfire?

[OilFinder2]

It appears someone didn't even look at his own chart! After bottoming out around December 2009, the percentage of jobs created which are full-time has actually been rising! while the number of part-time jobs has been more or less flat.

Then there's always the birth-death model crutch the doomers like to cite when it's convenient for them. In January, when the birth-death model actually subtracted 367,000 jobs from the unadjusted number, it got completely and totally ignored. Now in July when it added a paltry 52,000, suddenly it's the source and cause of all the supposed BLS lies!

And as has been pointed out about a zillion times here ... THE BIRTH-DEATH MODEL ONLY APPLIES TO THE UNADJUSTED NUMBERS.

Let me repeat that: THE BIRTH-DEATH MODEL ONLY APPLIES TO THE UNADJUSTED NUMBERS.

Do I need to say it again? THE BIRTH-DEATH MODEL ONLY APPLIES TO THE UNADJUSTED NUMBERS.

Since certain people are statistically challenged, on an unadjusted basis, the net number of jobs added/subtracted in July was -1,204,000 (the unadjusted number of jobs always goes down in July).

In other words, that 52,000 jobs from the birth-death model accounts for a whopping 4.3% of the net job change in July! WOW! That's, like, huge!!

I believe that bears repeating: THE 52,000 JOBS ADDED BY THE BIRTH-DEATH MODEL ONLY ACCOUNTS FOR 4.3% OF THE TOTAL UNADJUSTED CHANGE IN JULY JOBS!!!. WOW!!! THAT'S SO HUGE!!!!

But, this is what you get when you read Zerohedge.

Doomers are so desperate to convince themselves the economy isn't improving they'll lie to themselves about the statistics they're looking at. Pathetic.

Full-Time Jobs -197,000; Part-Time Jobs +31,000

We got the pre-spun job quantity data already, where we learned that nearly 3 times the headline print was due to seasonal and B/D adjustments and is thus nothing but noise. Now we get the quality.

[...]

[pstarr]

Oilfinder has been here at PO.com since 2004, the entire time trying to convince himself and us that America is doing just fine, that the housing market would only go up, the financial services industry was the key to a future prosperity, and endless oil would fuel endless growth. FOR NINE YEARS OILY HAS BEEN PROFFERING A BIG FAT LIE! Does anyone believe it? Not I. Of course we must ask ourselves--why does he continue on and on and on this way? Is it a psychosis or a profession? Curious minds want to know.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Actually, PSTARR, as my mom used to say "You ought to put 'em in a paper bag and shake 'em".

For this site if you call "them" the collective whole, then the cornies like OF2 offer a counterbalance against all the negativity here -- especially the constant "we're about to crash and be overrun by zombies" crowd which just pushes back the date every X months and rarely admits they were wrong.

Given that we seem to be bumping along some kind of plateau and it's hard to say whether (for awhile) better technology or major human stupidity or good or bad luck, or (by far most likely) some combination of all the above will continue to have us muddle along ... until something major changes.

He tends to provide data and another viewpoint and that is good. If it disturbs you, you can ignore him. By at least some guages like profits and the stock market -- he has been more right than the doomers. By others like climate and debt, the doomers are looking good, but in very slow motion.

[Daniel_Plainview]

It appears someone didn't even look at his own chart! After bottoming out around December 2009, the percentage of jobs created which are full-time has actually been rising! while the number of part-time jobs has been more or less flat.

Then there's always the birth-death model crutch the doomers like to cite when it's convenient for them. In January, when the birth-death model actually subtracted 367,000 jobs from the unadjusted number, it got completely and totally ignored. Now in July when it added a paltry 52,000, suddenly it's the source and cause of all the supposed BLS lies!

And as has been pointed out about a zillion times here ... THE BIRTH-DEATH MODEL ONLY APPLIES TO THE UNADJUSTED NUMBERS.

Let me repeat that: THE BIRTH-DEATH MODEL ONLY APPLIES TO THE UNADJUSTED NUMBERS.

Do I need to say it again? THE BIRTH-DEATH MODEL ONLY APPLIES TO THE UNADJUSTED NUMBERS.

Since certain people are statistically challenged, on an unadjusted basis, the net number of jobs added/subtracted in July was -1,204,000 (the unadjusted number of jobs always goes down in July).

In other words, that 52,000 jobs from the birth-death model accounts for a whopping 4.3% of the net job change in July! WOW! That's, like, huge!!

I believe that bears repeating: THE 52,000 JOBS ADDED BY THE BIRTH-DEATH MODEL ONLY ACCOUNTS FOR 4.3% OF THE TOTAL UNADJUSTED CHANGE IN JULY JOBS!!!. WOW!!! THAT'S SO HUGE!!!!

But, this is what you get when you read Zerohedge.

Doomers are so desperate to convince themselves the economy isn't improving they'll lie to themselves about the statistics they're looking at. Pathetic.

Full-Time Jobs -197,000; Part-Time Jobs +31,000

We got the pre-spun job quantity data already, where we learned that nearly 3 times the headline print was due to seasonal and B/D adjustments and is thus nothing but noise. Now we get the quality.

[...]

OMG, you are SOOOO dense.

I'll make this so simple that even a super-dense blackhole could understand it:

1. July and January ALWAYS have the largest seasonable adjustments -- by far -- than the other months.



2. July, 2012's seasonable adjustment was the largest in modern history:



3. In July, this seasonable adjustment has a massive, dispositive effect on the final print number (from the NYT):

The [BLS] report for July is annually adjusted by a larger amount than for any other month save January, when holiday workers lose their jobs. In the last 10 July jobs reports, dating back to 2002, the agency has added an average of 1.33 million jobs to its original estimate. Last year, for example, the agency estimated that payrolls declined by 1.3 million jobs in July, but it reported a seasonally adjusted increase of 96,000 jobs.

That places a huge premium on the accuracy of the adjustment: A 5 percent error in the adjustment would have shifted the reported total last July by two-thirds.

And even in the best of times, the bureau’s estimates are rarely that accurate.

The government has estimated an average change of 149,700 jobs in the last 10 July jobs reports, but it has since revised those estimates by an average of 92,900 jobs per year. In other words, the initial estimate is generally off by about 62 percent.

In three of those 10 years — 2002, 2003 and 2007 — the agency wasn’t even correct about whether the economy gained or lost jobs.

4. Here's the direct quote from my post: "Our analysis comes directly from your beloved US govt -- namely, from Table A9 from the Household Survey, and from the seasonal and birth/death adjustments."

Notice how you yammer on about the B/D number, but ignore the seasonal adjustment in your response? I wonder why that is?

So the inescapable conclusions are as follows:

1. The July print number is mostly noise due to seasonal adjustments (as it is every July).

2. This particular July (2012) is far noisier than any other July in modern history (can you say "Obama Reelection"?).

(ABC) "In the household survey the unemployment rate increased from 8.2 to 8.3, the employment to population ratio fell and the participation rate fell in July. Those are all very troubling." Unemployment has been above 8 percent for 41 consecutive months. The Labor Department report showed that the actual number of Americans working dropped by 195,000. That means the net gain reported in July was due to seasonal adjustments. ... "It should also be remembered that there is a large seasonal adjustment in July. Taken together this means that we can't be very happy with the overall jobs report. There are too many negatives in the household survey and much of the gain of 163k is due to a large seasonal adjustment." ... The headline number is a seasonally adjusted number, taking into account that employment in July is typically much lower than in June. Bronars said seemingly small differences in seasonal adjustments from one year to the next can cause a swing of more than 100,000 jobs in the headline report for job growth.

3. What we do know from the hard numbers is that a huge number of full-time jobs were shed in July, whilst the part-time roster actually increased.

4. Since 2009, the clear trend has been to replace coveted full-time jobs with ephemeral part-time/temp jobs. So much so that, since 2009, more people have entered the Fed disability program than have gotten full-time jobs.

5. The BLS statistics DO NOT differentiate between full-time workers versus part-time workers working only 1 hour/week. Thus, the BLS print number will vastly overstate the true health of employment picture.

6. The household survey showed very disappointing numbers. Both the July employment to population ratio and the participation rate fell measurably.

7. Unemployment has been above 8% for 41 consecutive months, and the reported unemployment rate actually worsened in July (from 8.2% to 8.3%). The BLS report showed that the actual number of Americans working dropped by 195,000. IOW, the net gain reported in July was due to seasonal adjustments.

8. The US needs 150,000 new jobs/mo just to break-even with new entrants into the labor market, so once you subtract 150K from 163K, you're left with a net increase of +13K. That's 13,000 net jobs even after all of the govt fudging and smoke-n-mirrors! WTF! And the Cornies are truly excited about this! WTF!



9. U6 unemployment has increased a full 1% since April!

10. The civilian-participation rate dropped to nearly reach its 30-year low again, whilst the number of civilians not in the workforce jumped by 348,000, which may explain why the jobless rate only went up a tenth of a point.

IOW, the July jobs report was horrible. Terrible. Awful. One of the worst this year. Anyone who feels that the July jobs report was a "positive" print is deeply deluded. As one commentator summarized:

There is more bad news than good. July saw a slight move up in U-6, which had been coming down earlier in the year to the mid-14 range. That measure of un/underemployment has now risen to 15.2%, increasing in both adjusted and unadjusted measures. It’s the highest rating in this measure since February, and it’s now up more than a full point since April.

The workforce lost 150,000 people last month, after adding 156,000 in June. The civilian-participation rate dropped a tenth of a point to almost hit the 30-year low again it reached in April. The measure of people not in the workforce jumped by 348,000, which may be why the jobless rate only went up a tenth of a point. ... If this is what passes for good economic news for the Obama administration, it’s more of an indictment than a boost. However, most people will hear “163,000″ and think that sounds pretty good.

The fact that the Cornies are spending SOOOO much time on this bullshit just shows you how desperate they've become, and how truly depressing the overall, underlying economic picture has become.

[ralfy]

To Daniel, thanks for sharing that! No. 5 is notable.

[OilFinder2]

1. July and January ALWAYS have the largest seasonable adjustments -- by far -- than the other months.

Right. So why did you complain about the seasonal adjustments? Same as every July.

2. July, 2012's seasonable [sic] adjustment was the largest in modern history:

And notice your own chart shows a rising trend going back several years. This tells you the seasonality in July has been changing over several years. This is exactly what seasonal adjustments are supposed to do over time, and why they do benchmark revisions: To capture changes in seasonality. So big f-ing deal: The seasonal adjustments for July have been changing for several years. Wow, it must be a lie!

3. In July, this seasonable adjustment has a massive, dispositive effect on the final print number (from the NYT):

And guess what Einstein? FEBRUARY AND MARCH SUBTRACTED THE LARGEST NUMBER OF JOBS FROM THE UNADJUSTED NUMBER FOR ANY FEBRUARY AND MARCH SINCE 2002! Here are the numbers, you can calculate them yourself using data from the BLS link I provided above!

Feb
Feb 2002: -613
Feb 2003: -571
Feb 2004: -567
Feb 2005: -586
Feb 2006: -609
Feb 2007: -596
Feb 2008: -600
Feb 2009: -483
Feb 2010: -472
Feb 2011: -601
Feb 2012: -654
--------------------------
In other words, this past February, 654K jobs were subtracted from the unadjusted number, the most since 2002.

Ditto March:
March 2002: -628
March 2003: -701
March 2004: -706
March 2005: -702
March 2006: -698
March 2007: -702
March 2008: -683
March 2009: -660
March 2010: -649
March 2011: -667
March 2012: -728
--------------------------
In other words, this past March, 728K jobs were subtracted from the unadjusted number, the most since 2002.

See what happens when you actually care to check the data for yourself? You're completely incapable of doing this it seems, all you do is regurgitate articles from Zerohedge without checking the facts for yourself. I have yet to see you crunch a single number yourself on this board.

So, what does this tell you? THE OVER-COMPENSATION IN THE SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FOR JULY IS MERELY MAKING UP FOR THE UNDER-COMPENSATION IN THE SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH. Big f-ing deal. Little secret about seasonal adjustments for your educational value: By their nature, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted numbers will negate each other over the course of an entire year. If something is getting increasingly bumped up in one part of the year, that means it's going to get increasingly bumped down in another part of the year. I'd recommend you educate yourself more on the nature of seasonal adjustment.

4. Here's the direct quote from my post: "Our analysis comes directly from your beloved US govt -- namely, from Table A9 from the Household Survey, and from the seasonal and birth/death adjustments."

Notice how you yammer on about the B/D number, but ignore the seasonal adjustment in your response? I wonder why that is?

See reply to #3. Your point has been utterly and completely demolished.

So the inescapable conclusions are as follows:

1. The July print number is mostly noise due to seasonal adjustments (as it is every July).

If, as you just said, it happens every July, then it's a non-conclusion.

2. This particular July (2012) is far noisier than any other July in modern history (can you say "Obama Reelection"?).

And FEB and MARCH were far noisier on the DOWNSIDE than any other June in modern history. Whoop-tee-doo!

3. What we do know from the hard numbers is that a huge number of full-time jobs were shed in July, whilst the part-time roster actually increased.

And your own chart shows many recent months in which the number of part-time jobs went down, while full-time jobs went up. Particularly February. Once again ... big f-ing deal! These numbers are going to bonce around a lot month to month.

4. Since 2009, the clear trend has been to replace coveted full-time jobs with ephemeral part-time/temp jobs. So much so that, since 2009, more people have entered the Fed disability program than have gotten full-time jobs.

And since 2010, the clear trend has been to replace non-coveted part-time jobs with full-time jobs.

5. The BLS statistics DO NOT differentiate between full-time workers versus part-time workers working only 1 hour/week. Thus, the BLS print number will vastly overstate the true health of employment picture.

You don't know this is any more true now than it was 8, 18 or 28 years ago. You just made this up.

6. The household survey showed very disappointing numbers. Both the July employment to population ratio and the participation rate fell measurably.

The household survey has been showing significantly better job growth recently than the establishment survey. It was about time for a correction. Notice the big bulge in the red line at the right of the chart below:

7. Unemployment has been above 8% for 41 consecutive months, and the reported unemployment rate actually worsened in July (from 8.2% to 8.3%). The BLS report showed that the actual number of Americans working dropped by 195,000. IOW, the net gain reported in July was due to seasonal adjustments.

As I noted at the bottom of two pages ago, the 0.1% rise was simply due to rounding. And as a perfect display of your complete and total lack of economic and statistical knowledge, your comment about the seasonal adjustments was a complete non-sequitur from the rest of your statement. The two have nothing to do with each other.

8. The US needs 150,000 new jobs/mo just to break-even with new entrants into the labor market, so once you subtract 150K from 163K, you're left with a net increase of +13K. That's 13,000 net jobs even after all of the govt fudging and smoke-n-mirrors! WTF! And the Cornies are truly excited about this! WTF!

And yet ... the trend since 2010 has been going up!

9. U6 unemployment has increased a full 1% since April!

And is down 1.1% since July of last year, and is down from over 17% since the beginning of 2010.

10. The civilian-participation rate dropped to nearly reach its 30-year low again, whilst the number of civilians not in the workforce jumped by 348,000, which may explain why the jobless rate only went up a tenth of a point.

This one has been bumping along the bottom for quite some time. Which tells you it has probably bottomed.

IOW, the July jobs report was horrible. Terrible. Awful. One of the worst this year. Anyone who feels that the July jobs report was a "positive" print is deeply deluded.

No, actually anyone who thinks EVERY jobs report is bad and, additionally, is hoping that every one is bad so as to satisfy some ideological bent, as you do, is not just deluded, but is actually a sick and twisted human being. There is no other way to put it.

[Daniel_Plainview]

OF2, you've been debunked ... the employment report is pure noise, garbage, smoke and mirrors. Amid all of its conflicting signals, questionable assumptions, and fuzzy wuzzy math and data interpretations, it is, AT BEST, a neutral report. Oh sure, it's possible to look at each of its manifold flaws and problems in isolation, thereby finding some potential counter-explanation for each point; but the CUMULATIVE EFFECT of my points, when viewed holistically and synergistically, compel the conclusion that this is a garbage report. It's crap.

No, actually anyone who thinks EVERY jobs report is bad and, additionally, is hoping that every one is bad so as to satisfy some ideological bent, as you do, is not just deluded, but is actually a sick and twisted human being. There is no other way to put it.

The truth and reality tell a different story, OF2; they suggest that despite ZIRP and astronomical, unprecedented amounts of ongoing QE and fiscal/monetary life-support, including massive tax breaks, massive deficit spending, etc etc ...the US economy can only manage to break-even at best, and, at worst, shed a ton of full-time workers in favor of part-time workers ... a worrying trend that's been going on since 2009.

Why are you spending so much time on this joke-of-a-report? It's pure noise and not worth our effort. Even your time is more valuable than justifying this garbage report. It's a smelly trash heap.

If Anti-Doomer and you want to continue to believe that this is a good report, and that unicorns shit skittles, and that magic scepters can sprinkle glistening fairy dust thereby making everything better ... then so be it. We won't stop you.

The most important thing to keep in mind is that we're still on the bumpy PO plateau, and the full brunt of PO hasn't even begun to emerge yet (thanks in large part to the "Bakken Bump"). The Eurozone isn't so lucky, as they don't have the benefit of a "Bakken Bump." As a result, I think the Eurozone is quickly heading for deep pain and despair ... and the US will NOT BE ABLE to decouple jor extricate itself from this in any meaningful, long-term sense.

So, as the downward trajectory is only just beginning, this may be one of the last and final employment reports that you'll ever be able to boast about.

Thank you for taking the time to respond to my post. We appreciate it.

[Lore]

“The future is uncertain but the end is always near.”

[OilFinder2]

OF2, you've been debunked ...

No, actually, your garbage arguments have been completely debunked. I pulled out my spreadsheets, and the whole bit! You're too intellectually lazy to so much as pull out a spreadsheet and crunch a few numbers yourself.

So, as the downward trajectory is only just beginning, this may be one of the last and final employment reports that you'll ever be able to boast about.

You just proved my point: If we happen to get a bad jobs report, you will believe it and cite it as proof of your view. But whenever we get even a halfway decent jobs report, it gets explained away, and articles from Zerohedge get posted telling us how it was really a bad report. In other words, you do not want things to get better - you are routing for them to get worse! And you still have yet to deny this! Again, the image below is appropriate:

[Lore]

Why argue the short term when the long term outlook matters so much more? Posting economic headlines on quarterly data doesn't say much for the long haul which is pockmarked with holes so big you could swallow a nation or several in them.

[peripato]

Why argue the short term when the long term outlook matters so much more? Posting economic headlines on quarterly data doesn't say much for the long haul which is pockmarked with holes so big you could swallow a nation or several in them.

Exactly there is SOO much sh*t coming down the pipe ready to derail, permanently - the human project, that concerns about the near-term prospects of Unmerica, the Pueril-zone, Brazchindia or whatever, are akin to a smoker worrying about dying from lung cancer whilst jaywalking blindfolded through a busy intersection at peak hour.

But it's fun to poke your tongue at cornies - they'z so stoopid!

[Daniel_Plainview]

OF2, you've been debunked ...

No, actually, your garbage arguments have been completely debunked.

I completely disagree. Any rational person who considers the holistic, CUMULATIVE EFFECT of my interpretations will ineluctably conclude that this is a noisy, garbage-laden report filled with wobbly data and loosey-goosey assumptions. For this particular month (July), if you slightly alter just one of its many assumptions, you could easily achieve a dramatically different outcome, such that the CUMULATIVE EFFECT of all of its myriad of wobbly variables and questionable assumptions leads to pure garbage.

... whenever we get even a halfway decent jobs report ...

And you completely miss my point: (1) this IS NOT a halfway-decent jobs report (no matter what CNN or Cramer initially told you); (2) you need to look at the complete picture holistically; and (3) you need to peer beyond the govt interpretations and conclusions, and focus instead on the underlying economic realities (such as the fact that part-time workers are not differentiated from full-time workers; such as the realities of horrific civilian participation and employment/population ratio, etc.).

In other words, you do not want things to get better

I merely want the truth and reality. Give me the truth, and I shall be happy.

If the intrinsic, underlying economy is actually improving, then why are interest rates still at ZIRP?

Then why are so many US central bankers nervously and openly discussing more QE, more ZIRP, more twist, more asset purchases?

Then why is 66% of US's deficits being monetized by the Fed?

Then why is foodstamp use breaking records?

Then why has GM started accepting sub-prime financing?

Then why is US GDP being continually downgraded such that it is now below 1.6%?

Then why are so many politicians worried about sovereign debt, even amid unprecedented ZIRP?

Then why are so many cities and municipalities facing bankruptcy?

Then why is the percentage of Americans working worse than when the last recession purportedly ended?

Then why has the number of long-term unemployed persons doubled from 2.7 million to 5.4 million in just 3.5 years?

Then why is the average duration of unemployment triple what it was a dozen years ago?

Then why are 40% of all US jobs "low income" (vs 30% in 1980)?

Then why is the unemployment rate for Americans in their 20's over 13% (vs 6.5% just 5 years ago)?

Then why have 42% of the unemployed Americans been jobless for at least a half-year?

Then why have more than 220,000 small businesses folded during the recent recession, whilst the US has lost more than 56,000 factories since 2001?

Then why has the number of Americans "not in the labor force" escalated by 18m between 2000 and 2011 (vs. 1.7m during the 1980's)?

Then why have 8m Americans vacated the workforce in just 3 years?

Give me reality, and I shall be happy.