Daniel_Plainview wrote:1. July and January ALWAYS have the largest seasonable adjustments -- by far -- than the other months.
Right. So why did you complain about the seasonal adjustments? Same as every July.
2. July, 2012's seasonable [sic] adjustment was the largest in modern history:
And notice your own chart shows a rising trend going back several years. This tells you the seasonality in July has been changing over several years. This is exactly what seasonal adjustments are supposed to do over time, and why they do benchmark revisions: To capture changes in seasonality. So big f-ing deal: The seasonal adjustments for July have been changing for several years. Wow, it must be a lie!
3. In July, this seasonable adjustment has a massive, dispositive effect on the final print number (from the NYT
And guess what Einstein? FEBRUARY AND MARCH SUBTRACTED THE LARGEST NUMBER OF JOBS FROM THE UNADJUSTED NUMBER FOR ANY FEBRUARY AND MARCH SINCE 2002!
Here are the numbers, you can calculate them yourself using data from the BLS link I provided above!Feb
Feb 2002: -613
Feb 2003: -571
Feb 2004: -567
Feb 2005: -586
Feb 2006: -609
Feb 2007: -596
Feb 2008: -600
Feb 2009: -483
Feb 2010: -472
Feb 2011: -601Feb 2012: -654
In other words, this past February, 654K jobs were subtracted
from the unadjusted number, the most since 2002
March 2002: -628
March 2003: -701
March 2004: -706
March 2005: -702
March 2006: -698
March 2007: -702
March 2008: -683
March 2009: -660
March 2010: -649
March 2011: -667March 2012: -728
In other words, this past March, 728K jobs were subtracted
from the unadjusted number, the most since 2002
See what happens when you actually care to check the data for yourself?
You're completely incapable of doing this it seems, all you do is regurgitate articles from Zerohedge without checking the facts for yourself. I have yet to see you crunch a single number yourself on this board.
So, what does this tell you? THE OVER-COMPENSATION IN THE SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FOR JULY IS MERELY MAKING UP FOR THE UNDER-COMPENSATION IN THE SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH
. Big f-ing deal. Little secret about seasonal adjustments for your educational value: By their nature, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted numbers will negate each other over the course of an entire year.
If something is getting increasingly bumped up in one part of the year, that means it's going to get increasingly bumped down
in another part of the year. I'd recommend you educate yourself more on the nature of seasonal adjustment.
4. Here's the direct quote from my post: "Our analysis comes directly from your beloved US govt -- namely, from Table A9 from the Household Survey, and from the seasonal and birth/death adjustments."
Notice how you yammer on about the B/D number, but ignore the seasonal adjustment in your response? I wonder why that is?
See reply to #3. Your point has been utterly and completely demolished.
So the inescapable conclusions are as follows:
1. The July print number is mostly noise due to seasonal adjustments (as it is every July).
If, as you just said, it happens every July, then it's a non-conclusion.
2. This particular July (2012) is far noisier than any other July in modern history (can you say "Obama Reelection"?).
And FEB and MARCH were far noisier on the DOWNSIDE than any other June in modern history. Whoop-tee-doo!
3. What we do know from the hard numbers is that a huge number of full-time jobs were shed in July, whilst the part-time roster actually increased.
And your own chart shows many recent months in which the number of part-time jobs went down, while full-time jobs went up. Particularly February. Once again ... big f-ing deal!
These numbers are going to bonce around a lot month to month.
4. Since 2009, the clear trend has been to replace coveted full-time jobs with ephemeral part-time/temp jobs. So much so that, since 2009, more people have entered the Fed disability program than have gotten full-time jobs.
And since 2010, the clear trend has been to replace non-coveted part-time jobs with full-time jobs.
5. The BLS statistics DO NOT differentiate between full-time workers versus part-time workers working only 1 hour/week. Thus, the BLS print number will vastly overstate the true health of employment picture.
You don't know this is any more true now than it was 8, 18 or 28 years ago. You just made this up.
6. The household survey showed very disappointing numbers. Both the July employment to population ratio and the participation rate fell measurably.
The household survey has been showing significantly better job growth recently than the establishment survey. It was about time for a correction. Notice the big bulge in the red line at the right of the chart below:
7. Unemployment has been above 8% for 41 consecutive months, and the reported unemployment rate actually worsened in July (from 8.2% to 8.3%). The BLS report showed that the actual number of Americans working dropped by 195,000. IOW, the net gain reported in July was due to seasonal adjustments.
As I noted at the bottom of two pages ago, the 0.1% rise was simply due to rounding. And as a perfect display of your complete and total lack of economic and statistical knowledge, your comment about the seasonal adjustments was a complete non-sequitur
from the rest of your statement. The two have nothing to do with each other.
8. The US needs 150,000 new jobs/mo just to break-even with new entrants into the labor market, so once you subtract 150K from 163K, you're left with a net increase of +13K. That's 13,000 net jobs even after all of the govt fudging and smoke-n-mirrors! WTF! And the Cornies are truly excited about this! WTF!
And yet ... the trend since 2010 has been going up!
9. U6 unemployment has increased a full 1% since April!
And is down 1.1% since July of last year, and is down from over 17% since the beginning of 2010.
10. The civilian-participation rate dropped to nearly reach its 30-year low again, whilst the number of civilians not in the workforce jumped by 348,000, which may explain why the jobless rate only went up a tenth of a point.
This one has been bumping along the bottom for quite some time. Which tells you it has probably bottomed.
IOW, the July jobs report was horrible. Terrible. Awful. One of the worst this year. Anyone who feels that the July jobs report was a "positive" print is deeply deluded.
No, actually anyone who thinks EVERY jobs report is bad and, additionally, is hoping
that every one is bad so as to satisfy some ideological bent, as you do, is not just deluded, but is actually a sick and twisted human being. There is no other way to put it.