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Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4 (merged) Archived

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 09:38:14

Construction Spending in U.S. Climbs to More Than Two-Year High
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-0 ... -high.html

The 0.9 percent climb followed a 0.6 percent increase in April that was bigger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 0.2 percent increase. The value of all projects rose to $830 billion at an annual rate, the most since December 2009.

A sustained housing recovery is supporting the construction sector even as public spending weakens. Concern over the European debt crisis and domestic fiscal uncertainty may also limit business confidence, restraining commercial projects.

“We’re definitely seeing a rebound in home building, absolutely no question about that,” Gus Faucher, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Philadelphia, said before the report. “Construction is going to be a positive for growth, primarily on the residential side this year, and maybe more on the commercial side in 2013.”


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The cornucopia sails on!!


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Last edited by TheAntiDoomer on Mon 02 Jul 2012, 09:38:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 09:38:56

More on Eurozone fiasco:

Finland and Holland to Veto Eurozone Bailout
Reuters) - Finland and the Netherlands, the euro zone's most hardline creditor states, cast the first doubts on Monday on a European summit deal designed to save Spain and Italy from being engulfed by the currency bloc's debt crisis.

The Finnish government told parliament that Helsinki and its Dutch allies would block the euro zone's permanent bailout fund buying bonds in secondary markets, despite an agreement among leaders' last Friday that the fund could be activated to stabilise markets.

The euro fell, European stocks gave up gains and safe-haven German Bunds reversed losses on news of the Finnish statement, which raised fears that the latest deal which drew a positive initial market reaction could unravel.

Several previous market rallies after euro zone crisis agreements have fizzled within a day or two as investors have fretted about the lack of detail, the risk of delay and national vetoes, or the inadequate size of the rescue funds available.

The 17 euro zone leaders agreed in Brussels on steps to shore up their monetary union and bring down borrowing costs for Spain and Italy, regarded as too big to fail but also too expensive to rescue if they are shut out of markets. They gave few details on the use of the temporary EFSF and permanent ESM rescue funds.

ESM bond buying in secondary markets would require unanimity and that seems unlikely because Finland and the Netherlands are against it, the Finnish government said a report to a parliamentary committee.

The report gave no explanation for the apparent volte-face but EU diplomats noted that a Finnish proposal that Spain and Italy should issued covered bonds, backed by state assets or future revenues, to avoid Helsinki having to demand collateral for any bailout loans, failed to find agreement last week.

However Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen's spokesman said the ESM stance had nothing to do with others blocking Finland's proposal. Helsinki simply did not consider secondary market purchases an effective way to counter the crisis, he told Reuters.

Dutch Finance Ministry spokesman Niels Redeker said the Netherlands did not support using the bailout fund to buy bonds on the secondary market and would evaluate purchases case-by-case.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said last Friday he was "not a big fan of purchasing bonds with the existing instruments because it is costly," Redeker said.

Euro zone crisis in graphics: r.reuters.com/hyb65p

NO TREATY CHANGE

EU officials said the leaders had agreed in principle that the rescue funds would be empowered to buy bonds both at auction when they are first issued, and on the open market, if a government makes a request and signs a memorandum of understanding on macroeconomic conditions.

A European Commission spokesman also insisted that no changes to the treaty governing the ESM were required to enable the fund to recapitalise banks directly.

He was responding to doubts raised in the Netherlands by legal experts who said the treaty would have to be amended and ratified again.

The Commission's spokesman on economic and monetary affairs said articles 14-18 of the treaty set out the instruments the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) has at its disposal to maintain financial stability in the euro area.

"Article 19 continues that the board of governors may decide to make changes to that list," spokesman Simon O'Connor told a regular news briefing.

"That is our understanding of where we stand on that, that it would not require a change to the treaty," he said.

A Dutch newspaper quoted legal scholars as saying the Dutch parliament and other national parliaments in Europe would have to ratify the euro zone's ESM rescue fund again after EU leaders decided to directly capitalise banks from the fund.

"Direct funding to banks is not possible under the current treaty," professor of constitutional and administrative law Wim Voermans of Leiden University was quoted as saying in Dutch daily Het Financieele Dagblad.

Voermans' colleagues at Leiden University, Michiel van Emmerik and Michal Diamant, supported his view, the paper said.

AVOID DELAY

Sources close to European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, who chaired last week's summit, said the leaders had taken great care to avoid any decision that would require ratification because of bitter past experience.

A deal to expand the scope and effective lending capacity of the temporary European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) last July exacerbated bond market turmoil after a brief rally when it became clear it would take months to ratify.

Finland threw a spanner in the works by demanding collateral on its share of EFSF loans to Greece, requiring months of tricky negotiation, and Slovakia's coalition government fell apart over the EFSF deal, delaying ratification until mid-October.

Other factors that have spooked investors include the risk of Germany's powerful constitutional court delaying the entry into force of the ESM and possibly placing restrictions on its scope of action, and the fact that the Brussels summit did not increase the overall size of the rescue funds.

Some investors may calculate that the sums available to support Spain and Italy in the bond market are too small to bring their borrowing costs down in a sustained way. The European Central Bank spent some 210 billion euros in the last two years to buy Greek, Irish, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian bonds without achieving any lasting improvement.

In Athens, ECB executive board member Joerg Asmussen ruled out another widely canvassed solution to the debt crisis, backed by France, which would involve giving the ESM a banking licence and allowing it to borrow from the central bank.

"There is no silver bullet," he said in a speech. "Those who advocate 'once and for all solutions' - be that a banking licence for the ESM, a European transfer system, or the like - are contenting themselves with a superficial analysis."

Asmussen has become the ECB's main international negotiator since he joined the board at the start of this year. He also urged Greece to focus on implementing economic reforms rather than losing time trying to renegotiate its EU/IMF bailout.
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 09:45:08

Why health reform is good news for the U.S. economy

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/0 ... -recovery/

1. The U.S. spent 16.2% of its GDP on health care plus up to 3% more on litigation concerning medical bills while other countries spend 10% and nothing on litigation because bills are paid by everyone. Lawsuits to recoup medical costs will slow because of Obamacare.

2. People with serious illnesses are uninsurable and are stuck in jobs they cannot leave or remain unemployed because they are unemployable. This will end if everyone’s covered.

3. Tens of millions of uninsured people in the U.S. end up with health problems that become a drain on society and economy. Under this reform, the 50 million uninsured people, mostly young healthy people, will have to be insured or pay fines, which will reduce overall costs because the paying base will be spread over the entire population.

4. Doctor, nursing, hospital and drug costs are out of control in the U.S. because of litigation and greed. American doctors over-service those with health insurance and fear of litigation has led to over-prescribing, testing and excessive costs. That fear has been removed.
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 09:46:48

New Orders Plunge from 60.1 to 47.8 !!!
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the first time since July 2009; however, the overall economy grew for the 37th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI registered 49.7 percent, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points from May's reading of 53.5 percent, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector for the first time since July 2009, when the PMI registered 49.2 percent.


Yuck.

New orders went from 60.1 to 47.8, from reasonably-strong expansion to outright contraction. Order backlog continued to contract and exports moved into contraction. Prices are collapsing; there's simply no means to force price increases to stick -- or even maintain them.
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 09:50:58

U.S. home prices rose in May - CoreLogic

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/0 ... 7K20120702

U.S. home prices rose in May in a fresh sign the battered sector is stabilizing, data analysis firm CoreLogic said on Monday.

CoreLogic's home price index gained 1.8 percent from April and was up 2.0 percent from a year earlier.

Excluding distressed sales, prices fared even better, gaining 2.3 percent in May and 2.7 percent from a year ago. Homeowners in danger of foreclosure, or in "distress", often sell their homes at a significantly reduced price


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"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 09:52:07

China manufacturing growth slows
China's manufacturing activity expanded at its weakest pace for seven months in June, despite government attempts to arrest the slowdown, raising fresh fears about the country’s ability to power the global economy.
Falling orders and exports hit output, official figures show, which will increase the prospect of further measures from Beijing to boost growth.

The country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.2 last month, from 50.4 in May, according to China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Although analysts said the figure was better than expected, the country’s government will be under pressure to further ease monetary policy to avert a sharp slowdown.

The weak global economy and the impact of the eurozone debt crisis contributed to contraction in new export orders, with fresh overseas sales falling to 47.5 in June on the PMI measure, down from 50.4 in May.

Last month, China cut interest rates for the first time in more than three years, while the government has also reduced the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve three times since December.

China’s economy grew an annual 8.1pc in the first quarter of 2012 – its slowest pace in nearly three years. It is thought that growth further declined in the second quarter.
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 09:55:04


Food inflation fears as US crop prices surge

Worries about world food prices are increasing, stoked by a 10pc rise in US corn and wheat prices in just a week.

The jump was driven by the current spell of hot, dry weather in the US Midwest, which is suffering record-breaking temperatures in some areas. Similar weather back in 1988, creating one of the most damaging droughts in US history, cut the country's corn production by more than 30pc.

Food price inflation is already a headache for policymakers around the globe, faced with the pressures of growing populations, rising urbanisation and changing diets.

That means the latest surge in crop prices state-side, with the US producing more than 40pc of global corn exports, is causing some concern. The dry weather is also affecting the Black Sea producers, as well as those on the North China Plain.

High levels of planting by farmers had stoked hopes for bumper US supplies this year, to replenish inventories that are near record lows and ease pressures on food prices. But when corn plants are stressed by drought conditions, the result is lower yields from the fields.

"The corn crop is entering the key pollinating and yield-setting period and continued dry weather is a big concern for yields," said analysts at Barclays Capital. "The optimistic scenario of agricultural surpluses that 2012 was supposed to herald may not transpire."
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 09:56:07


Europe’s bad debts 'will bite in 2013’

Bad debts in the eurozone are a “ticking time bomb” for the continent’s economy, with the worst effects expected to be felt next year, a report has warned.

Banks’ balance sheets will contract by a record margin in 2012, further constraining the supply of credit to businesses and consumers, according to Ernst & Young, but the “real impact” of Europe’s debt crisis will not arrive until 2013.

The accountancy firm said banks will shrink their balance sheets by €1.6 trillion (£1.3 trillion) this year as the result of asset disposals and a contraction in their lending activity – a sharper decline than during the financial ­crisis. As a result, it predicted that corporate lending will contract by 4.8pc in 2012, while consumer loans will fall by 6.6pc, which would represent the fastest pace of lending contraction on record for the eurozone.


However, next year looks even more “bleak” as the fallout from bad debts is felt across Europe, Ernst & Young’s Eurozone Financial Services Forecast said.

“Non-performing loans” – a debt that is either in or close to default – in the eurozone will peak at 6.5pc of all outstanding loans next year, a record high for the common currency, according to the accountancy company.

Ernst & Young’s Andy Baldwin said: “While the ­effect of ... a combination of the det­eriorating economy and the recurrent crises of confidence in the market ... on bank balance sheets in 2012 is worrying, the real impact will not be seen until 2013, when [loan defaults] will hit harder than many are expecting.”

Marie Dixon, an economic adviser to Ernst & Young, added: “Non-performing loans are a ticking time bomb for the eurozone economy.”

She said leniency from lenders to defaulting debtors is “masking the true extent of their non-performing portfolios. As the economy continues to worsen, a larger portion of these loans will be pushed into [default] status, forcing banks to realise their losses and constricting further lending.

"Larger firms will be able to draw down their cash balances or access alternative sources of funding, but smaller firms will struggle."

Meanwhile, France will post a smaller growth in 2012 and 2013 than earlier expected, Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said.

Growth in 2012 is now expected to reach just 0.4pc or less this year rather than 0.5pc, while in 2013, "an expansion within 1pc to 1.3pc ... appears more credible" than the earlier forecast of 1.7pc, he said in an interview published on the Figaro newspaper's website.
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 09:56:46

Mexican manufacturing steps up growth in June-PMI
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/ ... 1S20120702
Mexico's manufacturing sector stepped up its pace of expansion in June as both new orders and output rose, a survey showed on Monday.

The HSBC Mexico Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 55.9 in June from 55.2 in May, after adjusting for seasonal variation. A reading above 50 in the survey, which measures business conditions in the industrial sector, indicates the pace of growth from the previous month.

Total new orders rose for the month, continuing an unbroken trend since the series began in April 2011 and new export orders increased as well.
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 09:58:01

Irish manufacturing growth hits 14-month high in June
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012 ... g-activity

Ireland's manufacturing sector grew at its fastest rate in over a year in June, a survey showed on Monday, providing more positive news after last week's
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 09:59:46

Despite the weaker PMI reading in June, the U.S. continues to see a better manufacturing sector performance than almost all other economies around the world, thanks largely to resilient demand from the domestic market," said Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit.

"With the recent EU leaders' summit hopefully setting the scene for an easing Eurozone crisis, export orders may well pick up soon and help drive stronger growth in the second half of the year. However, an upturn is by no means assured," added Williamson.

The survey brought welcome news regarding easing in price pressures, and a further downturn in inflation could help alleviate a squeeze on household spending power"
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 10:11:46

Euro Bailout Fatigue -- Half-life Shrinks to 24 Hours
Judging by the market's response to the latest European bailout, the one associated with Germany supposedly 'folding' on austerity and being beaten down by her broke neighbors, and which according to the chart below had a half-life of one full day; the market has already priced in all the news and is now praying for more monetary morphine from the ECB and BOE this week. It will almost certainly get those. Then what: a half life of 12 hours? 6 hours? Or zero (and will Torres come on with 45 minutes to the close to save the day?)
Image
Spanish and Italian sovereign bond spreads have retraced well over a third of their knee-jerk rally on the bailout. Although they still trade 40-50bps tighter, their yields/spreads remain at extremely concerning and unsustainable levels clearly implying the market's lack of trust in either implementation or substance of the latest bailout.
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 10:18:07

ZH offers some charts to highlight the bleak picture facing the US economy ...

Houston, We Have Contraction
And so we have recoupling, with the ISM printing below 50 (i.e. contraction) at 49.7 for the first time since July 2009. Expectations of a 52.5 print were obviously blown away, as the final number came well below the lowest Wall Street forecast of 50.5. Prices plunge to 37 on expectation of 57 and there go your corporate margins; Employment down from 56.9 to 56.6, and New Orders implode from 60.1 to 47.8. Epic disaster which proves that no, decoupling, does not exist and now puts the Fed back in play, which however, with the S&P just shy of 2012 highs, can do didley squat.

PMI drops to a contractionary state for the first time since July 2009 with its biggest miss since July 2011.
Image

and the Prices Paid sub-index tumbled to April 2009 levels...
Image


If this trend continues for another month, Heli-Ben will have no choice but to implement another futile, abortive round of QE.
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 10:34:06

Manufacturing Construction Spending Continues to Grow
http://www.shopfloor.org/2012/07/manufa ... grow/25466

The Census Bureau announced that construction spending rose 0.9 percent in May, building on the 0.6 percent gain in April. It had declined in the first quarter of this year. The residential sector has been the main driver of this growth, as it was up 3 percent at the annual rate in May. Private sector, nonresidential construction rose 0.4 percent.

Manufacturing construction spending continues to grow. In May, it increased 2.8 percent, with manufacturers spending $48.6 billion at the annual rate. This represents a healthy increase from earlier in the year; in January, the level stood at $44.8 billion. On a year-over-year basis, manufacturing construction is up 26.8 percent.


manufacturers continue to invest in their businesses. Many sentiment surveys, including the most recent NAM/IndustryWeek Survey of Manufacturers, find that they are cautiously optimistic about modest growth in the months ahead. These construction spending figures tend to back that up, with manufacturers increasing their construction dollars by 2.8 percent in May.
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby Lore » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 10:56:01

Construction improvement is of course coming off of a much smaller number. We still have a huge shadow inventory and foreclosure problem to deal with. We are a decade, if ever, before getting back to pre 2008 numbers.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 11:21:49

US manufacturing contraction feeds fear of global slowdown
America's manufacturing sector has contracted for the first time in almost three years, intensfying fears that the world's major economic centres are suffering a simultaneous slowdown.

An index of US manufacturing activity fell to 49.7 in June from 53.5 in May, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

Any reading below 50 signals contraction and June's figure was lower than the most pessimistic forecast
. Stock markets on Wall Street weakened after a reading that economists said confirms US economic growth is losing the momentum it enjoyed at the start of the year.

"It's a really terrible number,"
said David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered. There was little encouragement to be found in the majority of the smaller indices that make up the headline number.

A measure of new orders dropped to 47.8 from 60, while prices paid slumped to 37 from 47.5.

Although manufacturing now only accounts for just over 10pc of US gross domestic product, the sector has been one of the brightest parts of the economy since America technically emerged from recession in the middle of 2009.

The survey also suggests that Europe's economic struggle and tentative signs of slowing in China may have reached America's biggest manufacturers. In its survey, the ISM said that comments from those companies questioned "range from continued optimism to concern that demand may be softening due to uncertainties in the economies in Europe and China."
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 11:23:46

The new-orders index now stands at 47.8%, a level that’s extremely rare outside of recessions.


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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 11:26:54

Economy crashing
Iran's parliament voting to close the Straights of Hormuz

Why do I sense a war with Iran is brewing ?
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 14:23:34

Well well, as if we didn't see this coming. /sarcasm. Doomers can have some fun about a manufacturing slowdown, but ... no prob. Fortunately there are other sectors of the economy. 8)

Image

Construction Spending In U.S. Climbs To More Than Two-Year High
Construction spending in the U.S. increased in May to the highest level in more than two years, held up by improvement in the housing market.

The 0.9 percent climb followed a 0.6 percent increase in April that was bigger than previously estimated
, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 0.2 percent increase. The value of all projects rose to $830 billion at an annual rate, the most since December 2009.

A sustained housing recovery is supporting the construction sector even as public spending weakens. Concern over the European debt crisis and domestic fiscal uncertainty may also limit business confidence, restraining commercial projects.

“We’re definitely seeing a rebound in home building, absolutely no question about that,” Gus Faucher, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Philadelphia, said before the report. “Construction is going to be a positive for growth, primarily on the residential side this year, and maybe more on the commercial side in 2013.”

Estimates from 46 economists in the Bloomberg survey ranged from an increase of 1 percent to a decline of 0.8 percent, following an initially reported 0.3 percent increase for April.

Construction spending increased 7 percent in the 12 months ended in May, after adjusting for seasonal variations.

Private construction spending climbed 1.6 percent in May from the prior month.

[...]
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Re: Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 4

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Mon 02 Jul 2012, 14:28:56

And speaking of both manufacturing and construction, here's something that's soon to be constructed in order to support more manufacturing!

Image

Airbus to build assembly plant in Alabama
Airbus made it official Monday, announcing it will build an assembly plant in Alabama to make passenger airplanes, giving the European aerospace giant its first foothold in the United States to compete with archrival Boeing (BA).

The plant is expected to cost $600 million to build and will employ 1,000 people when it reaches full production, likely to be four planes a month by 2017. It also will create about 2,500 construction jobs, officials have said.


"We are going to create great jobs and generate growth right here," Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier said at the convention center in Mobile, where many of the 2,000 people in attendance waved American flags.

Boeing has employed hundreds of people in Alabama for years. Airbus, based in France, planned to build refueling tankers for the U.S. Air Force in Alabama, but its parent company, the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co., lost the contract to Boeing in 2011.

The companies have had a long-running international trade dispute. Each also has been critical of subsidies received by the other.

Airbus plans to manufacture the A320, a widely used plane flown by Delta Air Lines, US Airways and others. The 150-seat plane is generally used on short- and medium-haul flights, and Airbus makes more of them than any of its other planes. They retail for $88 million, although discounts are common for big customers.

The Mobile operation will join Airbus assembly plants in in Toulouse, France; Hamburg, Germany; and Tianjin, China.

[...]
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