Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 3

[Daniel_Plainview]

Q: How high is the current US Federal Debt, and is it a record amount?

A: 15,564,809,891,767.99 is the current debt, and yes, it is a whopper of a record.



Q: What the total ACTUAL US debt, including all accrued liabilities?

A: Before we answer, we suggest that you sit down, and have a glass of your favorite alcohol beverage handy.

Q: OK, I'm seated, and holding a glass of absinthe.

A: The total US debt, including unfunded liabilities, is ..... oh wait ..... wait .... umm ..... wait, can this be true? ..... OMG ..... the total US debt is $118.1 Trillion ($118,100,000,000,000.00)

Q: How much is that per household?

A: $1,043,000.00 / household

Q: This is unsustainable! OMG!

[SeaGypsy]

Those dollars better get real cheap real quick

[AgentR11]

A: The total US debt, including unfunded liabilities, is ..... oh wait ..... wait .... umm ..... wait, can this be true? ..... OMG ..... the total US debt is $118.1 Trillion ($118,100,000,000,000.00)
Q: How much is that per household?
A: $1,043,000.00 / household
Q: This is unsustainable! OMG!

Disproof by counter example: (in extremis)

Fed prints 120 $1 Trillion dollar bills.
Deposit said bills.
Poof.
Sustainable.

Its only unsustainable if you believe the US dollar has a fixed value that it is supposed to represent. That has clearly not been the case for several decades.

Now, the above isn't how the game mechanics work, but it boils it down to the core reality. $120 trillion dollars is worth no more, and no less, than what the Fed makes it worth. It might be worth all the oil in the world; it might be worth a cup of coffee; or anything in between.

[nb.. if $120 trillion dollars was worth as much as all the oil in the world; then it is also likely that $120 trillion is more than the number of spendable dollars in existence. but the example holds none the less].

The truly disturbing number is the size of one year's state and federal outlays, compared to the size of the total economy. That coupled with the size of the deficit in relation to the size of the economy are quite problematic; or might simply be the leading edge of adaptation to a command economy that lacks direct restraint of free enterprise. ie, the government is simply the largest corporation, amongst the set of all corporations.

[Anvil]

http://www.youtube.com/watchv=azhNDNsr5 ... f61E3Cu6U=

Mark Faber reckons a market correction is due in the next three months.
His reasons
The Fed printing has vastly inflated the profits of companies and he say that these sort of fake profits have a tendency to decline.

High oil prices and its inflation from printing is destroy the economy.

[SeaGypsy]

The Fed has only some control over the price of these dollars, the supply side. The demand side has seemingly miraculously held up, a result of petrodollar hegemony and sheer volume, relative incomprehensible scale to any other currency. As much as the US would like control of the actual oil, source dispersal demands petrodollar status maintenance more important and realistic a means to prop up value. Catch 22 is Americans can't continue to have cheap gas and anything like a stable dollar with all that debt and no way out but inflation. Hence whoever is in the Whitehouse is between the devil of debt and the ocean of demand.

[peripato]

http://www.youtube.com/watchv=azhNDNsr5xI&context=C41d695eADvjVQa1PpcFMfzIUQrar8WWKqGuJBaW0_gLf61E3Cu6U=

Mark Faber reckons a market correction is due in the next three months.
His reasons
The Fed printing has vastly inflated the profits of companies and he say that these sort of fake profits have a tendency to decline.

High oil prices and its inflation from printing is destroy the economy.

This may be have been true, but it looks like the US dollar is poised to rally quite strongly over the next few months, which will play havoc with the profits of these companies, that have relied on such USD devaluation over the past 3 years to paint a rosy picture.

One can expect QE3 to be announced if and when the rally is complete. When the dollar index, is around .88, as this will be the perfect segue to introduce it, as were QE's 1 and 2, when the index was at similar levels.

[Anvil]

Spanish Banks Account for 47% of ECB Credit in February; Spain's Real Debt to GDP Ratio is 110% Not Reported 68%; Spain Will Implode. It's a Wonder it Hasn't Already
Spain's weight in the eurozone economy is roughly 14%. Yet Spanish Banks Account for Nearly Half of ECB Credit in February. Vial Google translate ...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... d+Analysis )

Its strange how much unreported debt the is in Spain its almost like the Euros have something to hide and why are they hiding really GDP to debt ratios when there all so publicly confident the Euro zone will pull through?

Bottom line its what they dont tell you is what you should be thinking about.

[Daniel_Plainview]

The truly disturbing number is the size of one year's state and federal outlays, compared to the size of the total economy. That coupled with the size of the deficit in relation to the size of the economy are quite problematic; or might simply be the leading edge of adaptation to a command economy that lacks direct restraint of free enterprise. ie, the government is simply the largest corporation, amongst the set of all corporations.

Debt is increasing exponentially both in absolute numbers, and as a percentage of GDP.





Up until the 2008 collapse, total credit market debt as a percentage of GDP was increasing exponentially.



This is what happens when you live in a bubble, Ponzi economy.

[OilFinder2]

Here's something else that's been growing exponentially: US real GDP.


link

Here's the same thing, on a log scale.



In nominal terms through 2010, GDP has been outpacing US debt.

[OilFinder2]

And even per capita, US real GDP has been growing exponentially, though apparently to a lesser degree than overall real GDP.


link

[dolanbaker]

Here's something else that's been growing exponentially: US real GDP.

except for the final few years when it takes a sharp turn south!

[OilFinder2]

except for the final few years when it takes a sharp turn south!

True, but note that chart's only through 2009. Real GDP has since surpassed the 2007 level, so if that website updated that chart now, the most recent reading would be closer to the long-term trend.

[Anvil]

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Sell Off
Interest-Rates / US Bonds
Mar 18, 2012 - 03:44 PM
By: Tony_Pallotta
Slightly off topic Macro View this week as I really want to study the movement in treasury. The 10 year treasury yield is currently 2.30% which from an historical standpoint is very low. But a 33 basis point rise in one week is significant (100 basis points equal 1%). If the sell off in treasury accelerates things can get out of hand in very short order.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33665.html

Fingers crossed for the collapse of the USA economy before an invasion of Iran starts WW3.

[radon]

Not sure, but the growth in the treasury yields last week was due to the flow of good news about the US economy (except CPI I think). People started leaving treasuries for more risky assets, so this was not really a sign of impending collapse, quite the contrary.

[dsula]

DP claims Dept/GDP is growing exponentially.
OF2 claims GDP is growing exponentially.

The important number is Dept/GDP, especially in light of the anticipated decline of GDP due to PO. And since the fed will try to hide the decline of GDP we can assume that Dept will grow rapidly while GDP shrinks. Not good.

[OilFinder2]

U.S. Unemployment Ticks Down in Mid-March

PRINCETON, NJ - The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, declined to 8.8% in mid-March from 9.1% in February.



The 0.3-percentage-point decline in mid-March moderates the 0.5-point increase Gallup found in February, but it still leaves the mid-month rate higher than the 8.6% in January. A year ago, Gallup recorded a similar decline in the March unemployment rate of 0.4 points, as it fell to 9.9% in March from 10.3% in February.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

Chicago Fed: Midwest Manufacturing Is Booming

The Chicago Federal Reserve reported today that its Midwest Manufacturing Index increased 1.3% in January, to a seasonally adjusted level of 90.1 (2007 = 100). Here are some highlights of manufacturing activity in the 7th Federal Reserve district that covers Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin:

1. Manufacturing output in the Midwest region rose 9.1% from a year earlier in January, almost twice the 4.7% increase in national manufacturing output over the same period (see chart).

2. Regional machinery output in January was up 11.1% from its year-earlier level, compared to a 4.6% increase in machinery output at the national level.

3. Regional steel output was up 13.4% from its January 2010 level, compared to an 8.7% increase in national steel output over that period.

4. The Midwest’s automotive output was up 17.5% in January from its year-ago level, compared to a 12.1% gain in national automotive output.

[...]

[Armageddon]

If things are booming, why are there 50 fucking million people on food stamps and growing each month ? The only thing growing is the gov't tit.

[Lore]

If things are booming, why are there 50 fucking million people on food stamps and growing each month ? The only thing growing is the gov't tit.

That... As Gore would say, is an inconvenient truth. We don't like to talk about such things, spoils our mojo.

[Plantagenet]

If things are booming, why are there 50 fucking million people on food stamps and growing each month ?

Because Obama is the food stamp president.