Here Comes The Double Dip Pt. 2

[Armageddon]

Here's your housing "boom".

[Armageddon]

Last, and not least, the Six Months Outlook plunged from 49 to 33.3, the largest drop in 6 months. Is the hopium going away?

zh

[OilFinder2]

Indeed, the absolute level is still very low, but nevertheless, they're up 46% from their low, so at least they're moving in the right direction.

[TheAntiDoomer]

LOL. Now that every credible financial source has turned against them all the doomer have left is zerohedge. LMFAO.

[Armageddon]

Remember how NAR was caught double counting home sales ? You poor saps believe every number they "seasonally adjust". They put their fudge factor on every piece of data that comes out.

[OilFinder2]

Remember how NAR was caught double counting home sales ?

I'm going to alter my post a bit for Armageddon's benefit.

This wasn't a big increase, but it's getting reeeally close to 700K, which is a mildly symbolic milestone. And, as it was 2 months ago, it was largely due to a surge in multifamily construction.



January housing starts rise 1.5%

New construction of U.S. houses rose in January, according to government data that analysts had expected would be boosted by unseasonably warm weather.

Housing starts for January rose 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 699,000, according to an estimate from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a rate of 688,000 housing starts for January.

In December the rate reached 689,000, compared with the previously reported estimate of 657,000.

Single-family housing starts fell 1% in January to a rate of 508,000. Meanwhile, starts in buildings with at least five units rose 14.4% to a rate of 175,000, continuing the surge in creation of apartment buildings.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

You poor saps believe every number they "seasonally adjust". They put their fudge factor on every piece of data that comes out.

Speaking of poor saps ...

Remember how, early in January, Zerohedge, Denninger and the rest of the doom pundits were complaining about the large discrepancy between the unadjusted numbers and the seasonally adjusted numbers, and since the unadjusted numbers were so much larger than the seasonally adjusted numbers they must be lying?

Well now, lookee what we have here. If you read the actual Labor Department release it says:

Initial Claims (SA): 348,000 (-13,000 change)
Initial Claims (NSA): 361,928 (-39,328 change)

The unadjusted numbers are almost the same as the seasonally adjusted numbers now. And yet, the adjusted numbers are STILL going down!! Funny, I didn't see on Zerohedge or Market Ticker any mention of that fact, or that the unadjusted number fell EVEN MORE than the adjusted number?!?! Golly gee I wonder why?

[OilFinder2]

Leading indicators rise in January

The economy is expected to continue strengthening, possibly picking up this spring and summer, the Conference Board said Friday.

The index of leading economic indicators grew 0.4% in January, led by the interest-rate spread and manufacturing hours, according to the research group.

“This fourth consecutive gain in the LEI reflected fairly widespread strength among its components, pointing to somewhat more positive economic conditions in early 2012,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, a Conference Board economist.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a January gain of 0.5%. See economic calendar. The reading for December was revised to 0.5% from a prior estimate of 0.4%.

The LEI is a weighted gauge of 10 indicators that are designed to signal business cycle peaks and troughs.

Among the 10 indicators that make up the LEI, seven made positive contributions in January: interest-rate spread, average weekly manufacturing hours, stock prices, leading credit index, ISM new orders index, building permits, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials.

[...]

[Armageddon]

There were three negative contributors: consumer expectations for business conditions, initial claims for jobless benefits, and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft.

That doesn't sound too encouraging for the economy.

[OilFinder2]

There were seven positive indicators: interest-rate spread, average weekly manufacturing hours, stock prices, leading credit index, ISM new orders index, building permits, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials.

That sounds very encouraging for the economy.

[Armageddon]

Here's your growth explanation. It's all an illusion based on government debt (personal debt too)

The Federal government borrowed and spent $6.1 trillion over the past four years to generate a cumulative $700 billion increase in the nation's GDP. That means we've borrowed and spent $8.70 for every $1 of nominal "growth" in GDP.

[rangerone314]

If were to charge $15,000 on my car for a Honda Fit, would this count as an increase in my household's GDP, if I ran my household as a country?

Reminds me of shock paddling someone who is dead and mistaking the jump for signs of life.

[dsula]

Whatever happened to DP? How can he let OF2 get away with several pages of growth news?

[nobodypanic]

i am just glad i didn't seriously hit the panic button back in '08. i stuck to my holdings and made everything back and then some. i remember one guy here who cashed his 401k in the middle of that crash - damn what a horrible move that turned out to be.

so my advice to anyone lurking around here - please, do NOT make any heavy financial descions based on anything you read here.

[OilFinder2]

Whatever happened to DP? How can he let OF2 get away with several pages of growth news?

Here's another one!



Caterpillar Plans New Plant In Athens, Georgia; To Employ 1,400

Construction and mining equipment giant Caterpillar Inc., Friday said it will build a $200-million plant near Athens, Georgia to manufacture small track-type tractors and mini hydra. The facility is expected to employ 1,400 people.

"The decision to shift production from Japan to the United States is driven by the proximity to a large base of customers in North America and Europe," said Mary Bell, vice president of Caterpillar's building construction products division.

These machines are currently made at Caterpillar's Sagami, Japan, facility. Once the transition to the new facility in Athens is completed, the Sagami plant will continue to serve a key strategic role in Caterpillar's global growth strategy as a high-tech component facility, the company said in a statement.

The company also plans to have an on-site product distribution center for small track-type tractors and mini hydraulic excavators produced at the new facility.

[...]

[Plantagenet]

Whatever happened to DP? How can he let OF2 get away with several pages of growth news?

The US is definitely showing some signs of growth, while China slows and the EU goes into a double dip recession. Lets all hope the good news from the US continues a while longer.



I'd be as optimistic as OF2 if US gas prices weren't edging up again towards record levels this year. A spike in gas prices caused by Obama's little war in Libya helped kill the economic "green shoots" that caused so much hope last year, and we seem to be heading for much higher gas prices this year. Some economists are predicting $5 gallon US gas by the year end----high gas prices are already helping to cause the slowdown in the EU, and IMHO $5/gallon gas in the US will kill this fledging recovery here is the US as well.

[ralfy]

Obviously, when you have more money pumped into the system, then you will always have "growth". But with a production ceiling for resources, it won't matter.

[Repent]

BBC 'Poor America' documentary.

People living under bridges, eating rats for meals:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suJCvkaz ... r_embedded

Can't say this isn't bad for some people.

[Lore]

Obviously, when you have more money pumped into the system, then you will always have "growth". But with a production ceiling for resources, it won't matter.

It's called stoking the fire. You can always get it to blaze a little higher by adding more fuel to it. Except, you better check how much wood you have left before you do.

[Mesuge]

BBC 'Poor America' documentary.

Quite surprised BBC even ran this story.

In any case one of take home leassons from the docu is that it seems confirmed the "collapse/history" literature timeline:

crises->*newly impoverished and poor circle the megapolis->revolt->
->system crash->leaving burned cities for country side

*people are not (and won't be) leaving for country side massively yet, to the contrary they concentrate around the civilization hub, looking for scraps, charities etc. Moving back to land is beyond their budget (can't afford even a bus/rail ticket), but moreover such trajectory change is against THE PROJECTED IMAGE of themselves and their future prospects (former "middle class" suburbanites), that's also why they are still not revolting much (yet) as they largely internalize this as their own personal failure, at certain point they will start blame the system ..and that's game over..
I guess this "delay" is the most important and overlooked phase of the whole reverse Olduvai process

PS Newt's idea of returning to child labor for american poor (colored) was a classic. I'm wondering when this idea starts taking ground in the EU too? Next year, lolz?