Hello Doomers (Shift of Hubbert's Peak)

[pstarr]

I basically agree with that. I'm banking on people figuring out that they need to move to other sources.

They already are. Otherwise Oilfinder wouldn't be so irritating because he wouldn't have so much evidence to refute the common peak oil meme of scarcity. Otherwise we would have had the Natural Gas Cliff in the US in 2005, instead of a glut. Otherwise the slow but steady march of increased reserve volumes from places like Canada and Venezuela would not have happened, and the BP Annual Review would only show dropping reserves with consumption, instead of increasing ones.

The evidence is already here. You certainly don't need anything more than recent history to prove it, and certainly Hubbert doesn't need to get involved in the least.

You must be referring to tight shale gas, shale oil, oil shale and necessary and very expensive production systems such as THAI, SAGH, and shale horizontal fracturing? Correct?

It appears from our previous conversations you are unfamiliar with net energy analysis of low-eroei production systems? It's quite obvious to other long term members here, folks not enmeshed in psychological denial or various investor scams, that this highly entropic industrial/financial/retail/consumer infrastructure requires inexpensive free-flowing liquids/gases from appropriate source rocks. Those with high permeabiity and porosity?

Hum? Makes me wonder who you are? You kind of sound familiar? Hum? Shorty>?

[kublikhan]

Renewable energy is ideal, but is not realistic in the near future. I have crunched the numbers and it just is not going to happen any time soon.

I plan to cover other energy sources. I just didn’t have time find the numbers. I am less familiar with natural gas and coal in terms of energy production and life span.

I have the levelized costs of natural gas, coal, wind, etc:
Estimated levelized cost of new generation resources brought online in 2016

Levelized cost is a nice way to capture many of the varibles that are involved in building and running a power plant. it includes things like capital cost, fuel cost, fixed and variable O&M cost, financing costs, utilization rate, etc. For example, in the link above wind only has a capacity factor of 34% because of variability in available wind. Anyway, I don't see why you say renewables are unrealistic. The levelized cost of wind is cheaper than nuclear and comparable to coal. Hydro is cheaper than all 3. Seems pretty realistic to me. Natural gas is the cheapest of all, but that of course depends on the current price of natural gas. Right now prices are very low because of high supply and low demand. But if you cause a spike in demand, say by shifting a significant amount of our energy needs from oil or coal onto natural gas, you are also going to cause a spike in the price of natural gas, which will cause a spike in the levelized price of natural gas.

Most environmental groups are full of crap, are typically uninformed, and get in the way of progress for everyone. It is hard to fix problems when someone puts the breaks on before you even get started. It is important to make mistakes that are worth making. I liken most environmental groups to ambulance chasing lawyers and they typically cause more damage than good.

Ouch. That seems like a rather extreme position to take. I would gather from that statement that you work in the energy industry and your company has tangled with environmental groups in the past? I for one have real concerns that the water I drink and the air I breath are clean. But I want to give you a fair shake, and you did ask for specific questions, so can you point out something specific about how the environmental groups are full of crap?

[Pops]

Probably right P so just don't respond.

As far as shifting the peak, if you are talking strictly about volume maybe, but we aren't even keeping up with past increases so far.

But Hubbert didn't pay attention much to economics. The way I look at it is in my sig line. Long term the real price for conventional oil was about $24 (I think) and this year it's about $110 (brent) and it doesn't look to be dropping very fast.

So really, I think you can figure that we've already past the hubert peak of $24 oil and are into the replacement phase now. So far we're burning food and spending a lot of money trying to keep the buzz going with tar and technology.

[Moto]

I have worked with several environmental groups on campus, attended a few National Sierra Club meetings and worked with clubs to clean up campus. Overall I have never been impressed with any of them. There ideas are not always bad, but the extremism makes sure that nothing ever gets done (kind of like our current government). I have worked in manufacturing windmill blades for 3MW wind towers, and indirectly I work in an energy related field.

Josh fox is a good example of someone who claims to be an environmentalist, and is full of crap. About half of his so so called documentary is an outright lie. Regardless he managed to grow a huge following of people by showing them some videos of flaming faucets. It was hard to search for facts on fracking before his video was released, but now it is even more difficult for the average individual. His video will probably have a long term positive effect on industry, but I don't like how he panders to people who have no understanding of the subsurface.

That quoted statement was largely pointed at National Sierra Club.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=md0Fdy0dlq8
http://youtu.be/rrzv8jt0bLI
Gimmicky and do not offer working solutions.
(The oil industry does the exact same thing and I hate it)

It is going to take me awhile to check out your numbers. Looks kind of good though.

[Moto]

strictly about volume maybe, but we aren't even keeping up with past increases so far.

I agree with you completely the Hubbert's Peak portion is largely to get the article read. I'm mostly using to get hits from people who don't understand that hubbert's theory. I agree that hubbers peak happened several years ago. I do think we will have a second named peak based on new drilling technologies.

[Moto]

strictly about volume maybe, but we aren't even keeping up with past increases so far.

I agree with you completely the Hubbert's Peak portion is largely to get the article read. I'm mostly using to get hits from people who don't understand the definition of hubbert's theory. I agree that hubbers peak happened several years ago. I do think we will have a second named peak based on new drilling technologies.

As far as shifting the peak, if you are talking strictly about volume maybe, but we aren't even keeping up with past increases so far.

I think we are going to see the gap close over the next few years. It takes awhile to build enough rigs and find operators to run them. I think the growth rate we saw in gas production is probably going to spread to oil. However, I think prices will remain about as high as the economy can handle.

[pstarr]

I do think we will have a second named peak based on new drilling technologies.

Will that be the United States, Planet Earth or Pandora?

[Moto]

Maybe it will. I'm not talking about this from a climate standpoint.

I honestly think we might find something else to do us in before the climate does.

Been having a good time. I came here looking for hippies to yell at me, but most of you aren't hippies. It is nice to find a group of informed people. I'm going to take a break for awhile my own web pages need tending.

Thanks for the input. Please do ask question.

[Bruce_S]

You must be referring to tight shale gas, shale oil, oil shale and necessary and very expensive production systems such as THAI, SAGH, and shale horizontal fracturing? Correct?

No. I am referring to what people claim will happen, versus what actually happens.

[Moto]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eScDfYzMEEw

Don't take things to seriously. Someone was asking why I don't like environmental groups. This is sort of sums things up, but I don't really agree about the plastic part.

[pstarr]

Maybe it will. I'm not talking about this from a climate standpoint.

I honestly think we might find something else to do us in before the climate does.

Been having a good time. I came here looking for hippies to yell at me, but most of you aren't hippies. It is nice to find a group of informed people. I'm going to take a break for awhile my own web pages need tending.

Thanks for the input. Please do ask question.

Do you expect a serious response? Not from me.

[pstarr]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eScDfYzMEEw

Don't take things to seriously. Someone was asking why I don't like environmental groups. This is sort of sums things up, but I don't really agree about the plastic part.

George is right. It's about saving ourselves, our children, and all god's creatures from the rapacious investors and corporations who have no values or obligations other than greed

[Keith_McClary]

I think prices will remain about as high as the economy can handle.

That's one definition of "Peak Oil".

[kublikhan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eScDfYzMEEw

Don't take things to seriously. Someone was asking why I don't like environmental groups. This is sort of sums things up, but I don't really agree about the plastic part.

George is right. It's about saving ourselves, our children, and all god's creatures from the rapacious investors and corporations who have no values or obligations other than greed

+1
Moto, did you miss the part where he said the human race is going bye-bye? The human race needs other values besides greed or else we will end up like the other 90% of the planet's failed creations.

[Moto]

That's one definition of "Peak Oil".

True, but I think it is going to be kept artificially high. Oil companies will drill only enough wells to keep the value high. The companies will work together because it will benefit them all. I suppose it is a peak, but it is going to have a funny shape.

Moto, did you miss the part where he said the human race is going bye-bye? The human race needs other values besides greed or else we will end up like the other 90% of the planet's failed creations.

No, I didn't miss it, and I agree with it, but it is a time frame issue. I think we will get energy figured out before it does us in. Our planet is full of energy it is just a matter of using it. Something else will probably get us in the long run though.

[pstarr]

That's one definition of "Peak Oil".

True, but I think it is going to be kept artificially high. Oil companies will drill only enough wells to keep the value high. The companies will work together because it will benefit them all. I suppose it is a peak, but it is going to have a funny shape.

Artificially high? Oil company collusion? Funny Curve? Need to support this stuff as it sounds kind of fringey.

Moto, did you miss the part where he said the human race is going bye-bye? The human race needs other values besides greed or else we will end up like the other 90% of the planet's failed creations.

No, I didn't miss it, and I agree with it, but it is a time frame issue. I think we will get energy figured out before it does us in. Our planet is full of energy it is just a matter of using it. Something else will probably get us in the long run though.

Something else will get us by? That sounds faith-based. Our complex consumer/industrial system requires inexpensive free-flowing light sweet crude to keep those trucks on the road.

We have been in a period of energy plateau/decline now for perhaps 6- years and no alternative has appeared on the horizon, regardless of claims and renewed interest in old second-rates substitutes. Have you not heard of EROEI or the energy cost of doing business?

[Revi]

Let's say we do go to a million barrels per day from North Dakota. Let's say we can get a million each out of say Pennsylvania and Texas. Let's even add another million from Alaska. We would be back up to our peak production in the 70's. Can the Bakken and similar formations keep producing indefinitely? Will fracking and enhanced oil recovery techniques be able to keep us producing that amount of oil forever? I don't think so, but let's say we can get production back around 10 mbpd for the foreseeable future. That's still only half of the oil we use every day.

We have been living on our inheritance. The money is starting to run out. We just found some money in the couch cushions. What do you think we'll spend it on? If we use it to transition to green energy it would be great, but I think we'll blow it on another couple of years of car culture and a movie.

[Bruce_S]

We just found some money in the couch cushions. What do you think we'll spend it on? If we use it to transition to green energy it would be great, but I think we'll blow it on another couple of years of car culture and a movie.

We didn't just find it in the couch cushions. The Bakken has been around since the mid-50's or so, it just required more effort and a better price for the market to decide to start producing it. Peak demand in the developed countries will probably be more significant in these matters than absolute supply volumes anyway, so it might not matter much.

[Moto]

Artificially high? Oil company collusion? Funny Curve? Need to support this stuff as it sounds kind of fringey.

Something else will get us by? That sounds faith-based. Our complex consumer/industrial system requires inexpensive free-flowing light sweet crude to keep those trucks on the road.

We have been in a period of energy plateau/decline now for perhaps 6- years and no alternative has appeared on the horizon, regardless of claims and renewed interest in old second-rates substitutes. Have you not heard of EROEI or the energy cost of doing business?

I kind of support the first statement by referring to natural gas... I don't think oil companies are going to do that again. (overproduction)

You struck out on the faith thing. I'm a science based person. I was thinking more along the lines of a super volcano, nasty virus, bolide impact, or maybe a nice tsunami to knock the population down a few pegs.

Did you look at my post on EROEI? I kind of think the development boom speaks for itself on EROEI.

Revi - I liked your point I might try to crunch some numbers based on your argument.
Bruce - I will also incorporate something based on your comment.

I'll probably just do another blog post that is going to focus on development of continuous resources.

[Keith_McClary]

Oil companies will drill only enough wells to keep the value high. The companies will work together because it will benefit them all.

I think they would if they could, but that kind of collusion only works when there are a small number of companies dominating the market, eg. computer RAM.

Only a few large companies can do deepwater or other megaprojects, but there are still plenty of opportunities for hundreds of smaller companies that would not join a price fixing conspiracy.