C8 wrote:There were, broadly speaking, 2 Peak Oil camps:
1. Oil output will decline too fast before other energy sources can come online and transition (timing crash)
2. Oil output will decline by too much for any other energy source to economically take its place EVER (EROEI crash)
Are we now past these dangers?
More oil is being discovered, constantly improved methods are getting more oil out of old formations, solar, wind and nuclear tech are all improving rapidly. We seem to be able to transition smoothly after all. The window of opportunity seems wide open.
Correct?
C8 wrote:There were, broadly speaking, 2 Peak Oil camps:
1. Oil output will decline too fast before other energy sources can come online and transition (timing crash)
2. Oil output will decline by too much for any other energy source to economically take its place EVER (EROEI crash)
Are we now past these dangers?
More oil is being discovered, constantly improved methods are getting more oil out of old formations, solar, wind and nuclear tech are all improving rapidly. We seem to be able to transition smoothly after all. The window of opportunity seems wide open.
Correct?
ROCKMAN wrote:Once again this obsession with a PO date. As I mentioned the other day: after what we seen in the last 25 years with the $TRILLIONS in US tax $'s pissed away, the body count of not just our military but hundreds of thousands of civilians, the drastic positive/negative effects of high/low energy prices on the US economy, the increased instability of a region vitally critical to the global economy, etc., etc.: if someone doesn't now understand the importance of the Peak Oil Dynamic and not some X marked on a calendar then they'll never get it.
As has been said many times: no one is as blind as someone who refuses to see. LOL.
C8 wrote:
Are we now past these dangers?
More oil is being discovered, constantly improved methods are getting more oil out of old formations, solar, wind and nuclear tech are all improving rapidly. We seem to be able to transition smoothly after all. The window of opportunity seems wide open.
Correct?
Although new nuclear reactors have come online in the United States within the last couple of decades -- the last one started operation in 1996 -- the NRC hasn't issued a license to build a new reactor since 1978, a year before the Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania. Reactors that have opened in the last decades received their initial licenses before 1978.
..... the NRC hasn't issued a license to build a new reactor since 1978, a year before the Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania. Reactors that have opened in the last decades received their initial licenses before 1978.
In February 2012, the NRC approved the construction license of the two proposed AP1000 reactors at the Vogtle plant.[26] NRC Chairman Gregory Jaczko cast the lone dissenting vote on plans to build and operate the two new nuclear power reactors, citing safety concerns stemming from Japan's 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, and saying "I cannot support issuing this license as if Fukushima never happened".[27] One week after Southern received the license to begin construction, a dozen environmental and anti-nuclear groups sued to stop the expansion project, saying "public safety and environmental problems since Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor accident have not been taken into account".[28] On July 11, 2012, the lawsuit was rejected by the Washington D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.
ROCKMAN wrote:C8 - That's the point I keep hitting on. EVERYONE: Let's try a quick survey;
What will be the price of oil on the day (Call it X) we reach global PO?
The price of oil 2 years prior to GPO?
The price of oil X+5 years?
The price of oil X+10 years?
The price of oil X+30 years?
Be brave everyone: none of the answers should be subject to any criticism.
The moment that production peaks from conventional reservoirs
C8 wrote:I can't see oil above $100 a barrel for the next decade, and maybe longer.
The exploration and extraction tech just keeps improving dramatically. Not in just new ways to get oil, but to get it cheaply. Meanwhile China is building dozens and dozens of nuke reactors and developing floating nukes to rent to coastal cities. Solar and wind prices keep declining.
And as virtual reality, travel, meetings, etc. continue to expand- people seem to be using less energy than before. Broke, they stay home and watch HD TV and loo at their phones instead of more energy intense pleasures. Businesses conduct less travel, tele-conference more, etc.
So with expanding cheap energy and lowering energy use I think the energy transition will probably succeed.
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