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Gulf Catastrophe Pt. 3(Merged)

Re: It's all over from July

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 29 Aug 2010, 22:54:40

OilFinder2 wrote:I'll be bookmarking this thread. :)

Well, it's now the end of August.

So, where's that $100 oil and the collapse? I'm getting anxious! :shock:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: It's all over from July

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 30 Aug 2010, 03:06:08

OilFinder2 wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:I'll be bookmarking this thread. :)

Well, it's now the end of August.

So, where's that $100 oil and the collapse? I'm getting anxious! :shock:


Oil hit $147/barrel in 2008, resulting in economic collapse.

Next question. :)
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Re: It's all over from July

Unread postby NoWorries » Mon 30 Aug 2010, 10:45:04

I don't see economic "collapse". The US economy is weak, but it continues to stagger along, more or less the same a usual. Undoubtedly it has "collapsed" for some, but that's another matter.

This is the trouble with making predictions.
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Re: It's all over from July

Unread postby TreeFarmer » Mon 30 Aug 2010, 12:17:46

I am wondering how you can have a collapse and then $100 oil. A collapse infers a loss of purchasing power amoung other things. If you have no purchasing power (money) how can you bid oil up to $100?

Barring a war in the middle east, some natural disaster, or inflation, it may be very difficult to get to $100 oil in the near future. In the longer run supply can fall enough to get us there but that would constrain economic activity so much that very little oil would be bought for $100.

TF
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Re: It's all over from July

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 02 Sep 2010, 10:47:31

TreeFarmer wrote:I am wondering how you can have a collapse and then $100 oil. A collapse infers a loss of purchasing power amoung other things. If you have no purchasing power (money) how can you bid oil up to $100?

Barring a war in the middle east, some natural disaster, or inflation, it may be very difficult to get to $100 oil in the near future. In the longer run supply can fall enough to get us there but that would constrain economic activity so much that very little oil would be bought for $100.

TF


I'm with you on this. I don't see collapse and $100 oil. I think the examples in recent history have already shown that oil prices will fall in response to collapse. Food, on the other hand, has never held a correlation with oil prices. Food prices could easily skyrocket.
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Re: It's all over from July

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 02 Sep 2010, 12:07:08

I'm thinking Ruppert has been on the job too long.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: It's all over from July

Unread postby gollum » Thu 02 Sep 2010, 12:38:42

KevO wrote:Ruppert interview says the GOM spill is a direct result of peak oil and we can expect collapse within weeks.
Interview with Ruppert starts 13 minutes in

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBPI-Y1ac7I

includes quotes such as $100 oil before September and we have just hit the cliff



It is silly, and discrediting to make statements like this, collapse will take years, decades, maybe even a century. What this does is to discredit those of us who would like to warn society at large about peak oil and peak resources.
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Re: BP and the Gulf Stream

Unread postby eXpat » Sun 05 Sep 2010, 10:55:45

If true, this is a catastrophic event
Life on this Earth Just Changed
The latest satellite data establishes that the North Atlantic Current (also called the North Atlantic Drift) no longer exists and along with it the Norway Current. These two warm water currents are actually part of the same system that has several names depending on where in the Atlantic Ocean it is. The entire system is a key part of the planet's heat regulatory system; it is what keeps Ireland and the United Kingdom mostly ice free and the Scandinavia countries from being too cold; it is what keeps the entire world from another Ice Age. This Thermohaline Circulation System is now dead in places and dying in others.

This 'river' of warm water that moves through the Atlantic Ocean is called, in various places, the South Atlantic Current, the North Brazil Current, the Caribbean Current, the Yucatan Current, the Loop Current, the Florida Current, the Gulf Stream, the North Atlantic Current (or North Atlantic Drift) and the Norway Current.
...
The entire 'river of warm water' that flows from the Caribbean to the edges of Western Europe is dying due to the Corexit that the Obama Administration allowed BP to use to hide the scale of the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Disaster. The approximately two million gallons of Corexit, plus several million gallons of other dispersants, have caused the over two hundred million gallons of crude oil, that has gushed for months from the BP wellhead and nearby sites, to mostly sink to the bottom of the ocean. This has helped to effectively hide much of the oil, with the hopes that BP can seriously reduce the mandated federal fines from the oil disaster. However, there is no current way to effectively 'clean up' the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, which is about half covered in crude oil. Additionally, the oil has flowed up the East Coast of America and into the North Atlantic Ocean, and there is no way to effectively clean up this 'sea bottom oil'.
...
The massive amount of crude oil, ever expanding in volume and covering such an enormous area, has seriously affected the entire thermoregulation system of the planet, by breaking up the boundary layers of the warm water flow. The Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico ceased to exist a month ago, the latest satellite data clearly shows that the North Atlantic Current is now GONE and the Gulf Stream begins to break apart approximately 250 miles from the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The Thermohaline Circulatory System, where the warm water current flows through a much cooler, much larger, ocean, effects the upper atmosphere above the current as much as seven miles high. The lack of this normal effect in the eastern North Atlantic has disrupted the normal flow of the atmospheric Jet Stream this summer, causing unheard of high temperatures in Moscow (104F) and drought, and flooding in Central Europe, with high temperatures in much of Asia and massive flooding in China, Pakistan, and elsewhere in Asia.

Check the complete article here:
http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2010/08/special-post-life-on-this-earth-just.html
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Re: BP and the Gulf Stream

Unread postby jbrovont » Sun 05 Sep 2010, 13:16:00

Interesting - I did some searching around and this isn't the only place it's being reported. According to Dr. Gianluigi Zangari, the Loop Current was first observed to be stalled on July 28th.

eXpat wrote:If true, this is a catastrophic event
Life on this Earth Just Changed
The latest satellite data establishes that the North Atlantic Current (also called the North Atlantic Drift) no longer exists and along with it the Norway Current. These two warm water currents are actually part of the same system that has several names depending on where in the Atlantic Ocean it is. The entire system is a key part of the planet's heat regulatory system; it is what keeps Ireland and the United Kingdom mostly ice free and the Scandinavia countries from being too cold; it is what keeps the entire world from another Ice Age. This Thermohaline Circulation System is now dead in places and dying in others.
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Re: BP and the Gulf Stream

Unread postby eXpat » Sun 05 Sep 2010, 13:26:37

Aye, jbrovont, it would be interesting to see some other, independent confirmation. If so, this is a game changer :|
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Re: BP and the Gulf Stream

Unread postby Pops » Sun 05 Sep 2010, 13:31:19

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: BP and the Gulf Stream

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 05 Sep 2010, 13:43:18

Supercomputer model animation at NCAR showing how BP oil gets into the Gulf Stream and is carried northward

Supercomputer animation showing how BP oil gets into Gulf Stream
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Re: BP and the Gulf Stream

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 05 Sep 2010, 14:56:40

Woods Hole has floats which monitor water columns in the Atlantic and elsewhere, but I am not able to figure out how to get to the database, or if this information gathering is ongoing (floats still collecting data?).

Page from which to try to get there "Argo Float Data": http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=7140

Maybe someone else can figure it out.... :oops:
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Re: BP and the Gulf Stream

Unread postby jbrovont » Sun 05 Sep 2010, 15:15:02

The reports mention two possible mechanisms that could be causing this. The emulsion of oil could be acting to slightly change the viscosity of the water involved, altering its behavior. The emulsion could also be increasing the absorption of solar radiation, thereby altering the density and flow of the current. The Gulf Stream is a huge mass of water made up of multiple circulations, and has actually been weakening for a while. There is some evidence to suggest that it has stalled and restarted in recent history. I'm not bringing that up to belittle the possible impact of this event, but just to illustrate that there are multiple factors influencing the flow, many of which we probably don't have a firm understanding of.

If the Gulf Stream is indeed stalled and stays that way for very long, the implications are probably outside the realm of predictability.



pstarr wrote:Okay, I understand the North Atlantic Drift, thermohaline circulation, and possible repercussions for global weather. I saw the "Day after Tomorrow."

What is this guy saying? That oil sheen from the GOM is heating up the drift, and somehow causing it to weaken or disintegrate? That makes no sense. Melting fresh water and dilution of arctic salt water from failing ice caps would cause this. Not overheating of tropics.

Do those maps really really show the disintegration of the Gulf Stream. That is NUTS 8O A BAD (really really good :) ) sci-fi movie.

I'm panikiing here :shock:
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Re: BP and the Gulf Stream

Unread postby efarmer » Sun 05 Sep 2010, 17:46:57

I do not see how this sort of voodoo environmental analysis is of use.

Until the Clean Water Act got teeth and implementation, the amount of petroleum, raw sewage, and detergents we pumped from the Missouri, Ohio, and out of the Mississippi watersheds was staggering and continuous post WWII for 25 years, perhaps even greater annually than a Macondo disaster, so far as the Gulf of Mexico was concerned. The agrochemical runoff is still humongous. If there be anything to be happy about post Macondo, it is that the natural seeps in the GOM equipped it to attack petroleum with microbial action, which is an answer to prayer and not a crutch to lean on going forward like some sort of "get out of jail free" card.

People are unable to consume good environmental science because it flies in the face of their economic or preferred political beliefs.

The environmental news is even harder to read and assimilate when it has goony bird crap like this all over the articles.

Are we so in withdrawal of an obvious and immediate environmental atrocity that we have to link it to another to keep from going cold turkey?
Last edited by efarmer on Sun 05 Sep 2010, 18:34:23, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: BP and the Gulf Stream

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 05 Sep 2010, 17:57:50

If the Gulf Stream is indeed stalled and stays that way for very long, the implications are probably outside the realm of predictability.

In such a scenario, the most likely outcome is that Europe has much cooler winters and the polar ice cap grows.
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Re: BP and the Gulf Stream

Unread postby Pops » Sun 05 Sep 2010, 18:37:07

pstarr wrote:What is this guy saying?

A blog hosted by the Right Honorable The Earl of Stirling, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia. Covers diverse topics including European and North American politics and economics, strategy, war, religion, high technology, End Times, medicine, Scotland, Scottish clans, Scots Peerage Law, and more.

and
I am available for public speaking engagements. Please contact me at: .....

Bring your own hat - Alcoa brand preferred.
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Re: BP and the Gulf Stream

Unread postby efarmer » Sun 05 Sep 2010, 19:41:12

I also noticed the unique bio of the Earl of Stirling on the link. I decided to lay off of it and stick with my own slant on the article.

I had a plumber fix a toilet in a rental space I inhabited in 1999 and he was pleasant and nice and asked if I was spiritual or not on his way out and said if I was to consider attending his church. He was a Scot and left me a card and I went to a website that had a 12 page rant that was prefaced by a photo of the plumber in a flowing white robe with a circular fluorescent bulb on a black backround meant to be a mysterious halo around his head. He had some military titles and was an expert on fishing lures in addition to being a spiritual leader who plumbed the depths of humanity to pipe in salvation.

I trust he has photoshop mastered for halos and hand emitted lightning nowadays...

He met me at a local fair a few years later and said he had prayed for me to have a wealthy life.
I thanked him and told him that I was flushed with anticipation.
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Re: BP and the Gulf Stream

Unread postby Timo » Tue 07 Sep 2010, 11:38:33

I read something somewhere a while back about the warm h2o current around Greenland ceasing. For some reason, this alone was not seen as a great concern. I'm just curious if the North Atlantic/Norway Current cesation has anything to do with this other Greenland current, or if they might in fact be the same thing. If they are connected and the science bears out about the "ice age" consequences that have been predicted, for some reason i doubt much news would be made of it as this would fit right into the naysayer's of climate change arguments. It would just be seen as more fuel to both sides of the fire which no one wants to hear anything about. Saving the planet was soooo last year.
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