Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 28 Jun 2018, 04:12:23

" consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century"

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/15/
User avatar
kiwichick
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2245
Joined: Sat 02 Aug 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Southland New Zealand

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 28 Jun 2018, 04:43:14

ENVIRONMENTJUNE 15, 2018

ENVIRONMENTJUNE 15, 2018 / 4:32 PM / 12 DAYS AGO
EU Baltic Sea region wheat crops suffer from drought
Michael Hogan
3 MIN READ
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-europ ... KKBN1JB1WA
HAMBURG (Reuters) - Dry summer weather is causing sudden damage to wheat crops in European Baltic Sea countries, putting a question mark over wheat export supplies, experts said on Friday.

Denmark and Sweden may even need imports.

“EU Baltic Sea countries are large exporters of high quality, high protein wheat and a very dry summer means the outlook for the crop is poor,” one German trader said. “Crop stress from dryness means the harvest is now uncertain.”

Germany’s 2018 wheat crop may fall 6.5 percent to 22.89 million tonnes after dryness stress.

Polish wheat also suffered from drought and recent rain was not enough to solve the problem, said Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska.

Poland’s wheat crop will fall 6.7 percent from 2017 to 10.9 million tonnes, Sabaranski forecasts.

“If the drought continues through June 2018, we will be forced to slash this forecast back to 10.5-10.7 million tonnes,” Sabaranski said.

In major exporter Lithuania, the harvest could fall to 3.1-3.2 million tonnes from 3.8 million last year after reduced sowings and dry weather, estimates Dainius Pilkauskas, Baltic states grain trading director at AB Linas Agro.

“It is difficult to predict the quality of grain which is seen just before harvesting starts,” Pilkausk
**************************

And our idiotic leaders are inviting millions of new people to our exausted Europe!

=> WAR and FAMINE

PEAK OIL
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3560
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 28 Jun 2018, 06:22:48

The irrational fear of migrants carries a deadly price for Europe

...as far-right politicians reach positions of power in several countries, their influence is coming to bear. Their aim, rather than to make a perceived problem go away, is to deliberately stoke a sense of crisis and panic, to frame this form of migration as an existential threat to Europe...


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... eo-salvini

What if the Baltic drought continues for a decade. What if Germans can produce no food and start to die en masse? Should France gun them down at the border if they try to seek refuge there?
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17429
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Jun 2018, 06:28:55

This is a consequence of decisions made decades ago that ensure this situation would evolve.

The better question is...Will we continue to make such short sighted planning choices?
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10508
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 28 Jun 2018, 08:53:12

Newfie wrote:This is a cons whence of decisions made decades ago that ensure this situation would evolve.

The better question is...Will we continue to make such short sighted planning choices?

Which then begs the question, can we adapt in any reasonably acceptable way, to the slew of consequences coming our way and actually having arrived. :cry:
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9293
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 28 Jun 2018, 09:38:35

dohboi wrote:The irrational fear of migrants carries a deadly price for Europe

...as far-right politicians reach positions of power in several countries, their influence is coming to bear. Their aim, rather than to make a perceived problem go away, is to deliberately stoke a sense of crisis and panic, to frame this form of migration as an existential threat to Europe...


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... eo-salvini

What if the Baltic drought continues for a decade. What if Germans can produce no food and start to die en masse? Should France gun them down at the border if they try to seek refuge there?

*****************

The French have any right to close their borders for Germans if needed.
Image
When the life boat is full it is full !


We in Europe were on the correct path :

AXIOM : population decline is the solution to all our problems!

When people think more then two children is good please feed them by your own and do not migrate to over populated exausted kontinents this will mean WAR!.
=> As ever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yuoQnRXc4M
M_B_S
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3560
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Jun 2018, 10:41:32

I was recently reading up on the China one child policy. Interesting stuff. Basically a declining population RATE growth negatively impacts the economy in big ways. In short the economy is unsustainable without population growth. Or so the argument goes. Yet infinite population growth is unsustainable. Rock meet hard place.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10508
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Jun 2018, 15:05:20

Newfie wrote:I was recently reading up on the China one child policy. Interesting stuff. Basically a declining population RATE growth negatively impacts the economy in big ways. In short the economy is unsustainable without population growth. Or so the argument goes. Yet infinite population growth is unsustainable. Rock meet hard place.


This is the fundamental disconnect of 20th century economic theory. In reality hundreds of civilizations did remarkably well without the cancer theory that economic survival requires unlimited growth. The truth is Europe before the Black death moved through and shook things up was in a centuries long very slow growth paradigm. The same was true of China, and Egypt, and the Persian Empire. Even the Roman Empire mostly 'grew' by adding adjoining territory to existing lands and those places most successfully added were already agriculturally diverse iron age cultures nit very far below their tech level. It was when they tried to expand into the real barbarian areas of Central Europe where the culture was bronze age or lower and agriculture was a sideline instead of a way of life that they got into trouble.

Sure when the Europeans after the Black death restructured society of the western and central portions of the continent discovered South and North America they had a population boom as they exploited those newly available resources, but real population growth came after the steam engine made massive factories possible which created a demand for workers. Before that happened the population was quasi-stable because mamma and papa farmer KNEW they could only feed X number of mouths, so they took steps to prevent creating more mouths than they could feed. When the culture shift to industrialization happened suddenly the excess older kids could be sent off to the cities instead of remaining on the farm using up limited resources. People have some pretty strange romantic notions of life on the 16th century farm, almost all of them wildly wrong.

Industrialization required massive monetary investment, and lending institutions make money off those through interest. Interest/inflation means the common folk have less and less buying power unless their pay is constantly increasing, which creates incentive for unionization and on and on, all based on the idea that growth is necessary and vital to survive.

STABILITY is what is necessary for growth and survival. An ecosystem of plants grow under certain STABLE conditions which allows humans to figure out strategy to survive and then prosper in those same STABLE conditions. It can be stable hot, stable cold, stable wet, stable dry, or any combination SO LONG AS IT IS CONSISTENT. Take away the stability and you are always scrambling to make sure you get enough to get you from one boom period through the bust to the next boom.

There is a reason humans tend to form authoritarian governments. Authoritarians are brutally honest about one thing if nothing else, they are in charge and wish to remain so. Staying in charge requires stability for the ruling class. But no matter who that ruling class is the common folks at the bottom of a stable culture know what they need to do to survive and the rules do not change radically even if they go from one ruler to a different ruler. Sure King what-is-name might get your region in a war with a neighbor for some stupid reason, but it is not as if 'democracies' and 'republics' don't do the same stupid things in that regard.

The problem with democracies is always the same story, someone wants to rise through the society and uses their charisma to convince others to support them in that goal. In a stupid authoritarian regime like Stalinist Russia that got the charismatic people rounded up and shot. In a smart one like Imperial Rome it got the charismatic person recruited into the power structure welding their culture more tightly into the Roman culture. In a modern socialist democracy like Western Europe it gets you a lot of promises that nobody can pay for and a growing anger in the electorate.

Just to bring this back around to climate, an unstable climate means you don't know what crops will grow well and which ones will whither so you are in an inherently unstable condition. Depending on how smart your elites are your region might have enough food stockpiled to last a decade of disruption, or it might only have enough food on hand for 30 days because just-in-time shipping is assumed to never fail.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14770
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 28 Jun 2018, 19:12:55

Newfie wrote:I was recently reading up on the China one child policy. Interesting stuff. Basically a declining population RATE growth negatively impacts the economy in big ways. In short the economy is unsustainable without population growth. Or so the argument goes. Yet infinite population growth is unsustainable. Rock meet hard place.


It may have to do with the point that capitalist systems require continuous economic growth, and that in turn requires growing consumer markets.

This might be one idea behind the hopium that exists even in this forum, i.e., all sorts of "game changers" will ensure continuous economic growth and even solutions to global warming until the population levels off due to prosperity, then goes into decline.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4821
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 10:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dissident » Thu 28 Jun 2018, 19:55:01

@Tanada

You are 100% right, the notion that macroeconomics only works through perpetual expansion is utter nonsense. But this notion is actually a malicious lie as well. It is easier to make profits using Ponzi style activity. For example, importing vast amounts of immigrants creates the illusion of economic vitality (as is the case in Canada). But it is a game of musical chairs and if the influx is shut down the reality will hit like a hammer. Each new immigrant creates incremental new demand and at the same time stimulates support expenditure. This is a pure plus for the GDP. But in the long run this game cannot be a net positive since filling up a country beyond its carrying capacity is net GDP negative. I can hear the cornucopians claim that there is no such thing as carrying capacity since any country can import the resources (food, energy) it needs. This is just passing the buck and is not a real counter argument.

Steady state economics requires lower profit margins and more intelligent distribution of resources. This is almost anti-entropic since it is always easier just to sell junk and overload the land fill sites. Steady state economics also requires long-term planning, something one almost never sees in the current economic paradigm, where opportunism is paramount.
User avatar
dissident
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5168
Joined: Sat 08 Apr 2006, 02:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 28 Jun 2018, 20:02:22

For example, importing vast amounts of immigrants creates the illusion of economic vitality (as is the case in Canada)


My interest is piqued. Please show us the numbers behind this.
My own intuition would be that more people in the country not working (which is basically the case for the large majority of folks wandering across the Quebec border) and the same amount of cash generated in the economy results in a lower GDP, not a higher one.
They might be consumers but the consumption is done on the back of the Canadian taxpayer (welfare etc) as most are actually negative contributors to the economy. It is hard for me to see a net positive contribution to GDP.
I'm not saying you are wrong, this is just counterintuitive to me so I would like to see some reference for this analysis.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5957
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 29 Jun 2018, 08:30:51

I haven't looked into the stats on their effects in Canada, but here are some facts about the economic effects of immigrants in the US:

New research by Americas Society/Council of the Americas (AS/COA) and Partnership for a New American Economy (PNAE) finds that the 40 million immigrants in the United States have created $3.7 trillion in housing wealth, helping stabilize less desirable communities where home prices are declining or would otherwise have declined.


https://www.newamericaneconomy.org/housing/

...the willingness of less-skilled immigrants to work at low pay reduced consumption costs — the costs to consumers of goods and services like health care, child care, food preparation, house cleaning, repair and construction — for millions of Americans. This resulted in “positive net benefits to the U.S. economy during the last two decades of the 20th century.”


Immigration is integral to the nation’s economic growth. The inflow of labor supply has helped the United States avoid the problems facing other economies that have stagnated as a result of unfavorable demographics, particularly the effects of an aging work force and reduced consumption by older residents. In addition, the infusion of human capital by high-skilled immigrants has boosted the nation’s capacity for innovation, entrepreneurship, and technological change.


...the total annual fiscal impact of first generation adults and their dependents, averaged across 2011-13, is a cost of $57.4 billion, while second and third-plus generation adults create a benefit of $30.5 billion and $223.8 billion, respectively....

...a majority of all voters, 57 percent, said immigrants strengthen the country through hard work...


http://econofact.org/do-immigrants-cost ... yers-money

... future impact of one additional immigrant is strongly positive, with the government accruing an estimated net present value of $173,000 to $259,000


I can supply more sources, if you wish, but ultimately this may draw us away from the main focus of the thread.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17429
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 29 Jun 2018, 09:40:55

Yes Dohboi, don’t we have a citizenship/immigration thread alread?

Always hard to know where to put thoughts as things are so inter-related.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10508
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 29 Jun 2018, 18:15:40

"things are so inter-related"

So true, so true
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17429
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 29 Jun 2018, 19:13:50

dohboi wrote:"things are so inter-related"
So true, so true


No more immigration.
Trade war.
Can't grow the economy.
Economic recession.
Global dimming!

Maybe, Trump ought to think this through :-D
User avatar
jedrider
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1034
Joined: Thu 28 May 2009, 09:10:44

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dissident » Sat 30 Jun 2018, 10:47:48

jedrider wrote:
dohboi wrote:"things are so inter-related"
So true, so true


No more immigration.
Trade war.
Can't grow the economy.
Economic recession.
Global dimming!

Maybe, Trump ought to think this through :-D


Get past your political blinkers. You can't talk about over-population being a problem and at the same time claim that one of the direct consequences of this (migration) is a good thing. Deniers have the same problem, they think that contradictory nonsense is reality since their brains can cut and paste contradictory tripe into some collage.
User avatar
dissident
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5168
Joined: Sat 08 Apr 2006, 02:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby energy investor » Sat 30 Jun 2018, 17:46:50

"Contradictory nonsense" has to rule in order to believe that :

1. A trace gas that comprises 0.04 of 1 percent of the atmosphere can dictate warming or cooling on this planet.
2. The polar bears are dying due to global warming while in fact their numbers have almost doubled since 1950.
3. The North pole ice is melting away to nothing while Greenpeace ships keep getting stuck in the ice in late summer in recent years and two supertankers need ice breakers to leave port in Russia this week!
4. The raw satellite data shows the global atmosphere has cooled by 0.5 degrees since 2016.
5. Since we started into the Eddy Grand Solar Minimum we have had two lousy Northern hemisphere winters and the snow in Northern Sweden never melted last summer. What is that? Glaciation? Or are you going to come out of the rabbit hole and argue that it is global warming.
6. We can have exponential growth on a finite planet. Anyone who believes this can believe anything.

I am confused as to who the deniers are. The blinkered AGW adherents or those who are sceptical?

I think the last word goes to the media who have started referring to summer snow as "white rain". Don't deny that it is snowing dumb-asses. Accept that nature knows best. Snow is snow and bull shit is bull shit.

If you find these truths painful, I hope you won't be suicidal when it starts getting colder.
energy investor
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri 04 Mar 2011, 23:03:40

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Jun 2018, 18:13:18

1,2, 3 and 4 are pathetic denial rants. Regarding no 1. - Mass extinction events have been caused by the burning of GHG. And Polar bears have been found dead from drowning and starvation. Of course in the colder months they're is still formidable ice, nobody is saying they're isn't, And as for no 4:
14 of the 15 hottest years on record have occurred since 2000, UN says https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... al-warming
And as for no.5, see my answer to no. 4
Your arguments are totally unfounded
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9293
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 30 Jun 2018, 19:15:39

6 is true.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10508
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 30 Jun 2018, 20:45:15

More tools here available to watch our demise play out in numbers and graphs:

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environm ... arming-gif
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17429
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests