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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby americandream » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 17:10:16

Plantagenet wrote:I hate to break it to you, AD, but you too are akin to our animal brethren. It turns out that you and me and every human ever born is not only akin to animals but actually is an animal. Yup---human beings are animals. We are part of nature. Our DNA is almost identical to the DNA of apes, and only slightly different from the DNA of many other animals.


Absolutely. There is a perfection in instinctual order. But add consciousness to the mix and you in effect introduce a filter from which such things as outcomes, innovative possibilities and ultimately objective functions may be perceived depending on how focussed is ones capacity to reason.

But I take your point as regards most humans and and the incapacity to remain focussed, distracted as they are by the ever driving compulsions of the instinctual world. It is not easy conversing in that context given the incessant chattering but alas, advances in human culture are never easy and often, unwelcomed.
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 17:29:51

"There is a perfection in instinctual order. But add consciousness to the mix and you in effect introduce a filter from which such things as outcomes, innovative possibilities and ultimately objective functions may be perceived depending on how focussed is ones capacity to reason."

Is it just me, or does ad's prose sometimes seem to devolve into a kind of word salad? Are you a non-native speaker, by any chance, ad?

Meanwhile, back on the topic:

Beyond record hot, February was ‘astronomical’ and ‘strange’

http://phys.org/news/2016-03-hot-februa ... range.html
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby americandream » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 17:44:35

dohboi wrote:"There is a perfection in instinctual order. But add consciousness to the mix and you in effect introduce a filter from which such things as outcomes, innovative possibilities and ultimately objective functions may be perceived depending on how focussed is ones capacity to reason."

Is it just me, or does ad's prose sometimes seem to devolve into a kind of word salad? Are you a non-native speaker, by any chance, ad?

Meanwhile, back on the topic:

Beyond record hot, February was ‘astronomical’ and ‘strange’

http://phys.org/news/2016-03-hot-februa ... range.html


Granted, it is not easy to grasp but I perservere. So bear with me. It should all make sense in due course.
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 18:12:20

" it is not easy to grasp"

BS. I read lots of very difficult texts all the time, not only in English, but in Latin, Greek, Sanskrit and many other languages.

For effective communication, someone has to be able to understand what is being said, no matter what the speaker or writer thinks she or he is saying.

If I and other intelligent readers consistently can't understand your language, you should at least have the humility to consider that the fault lies with your prose rather than with our cognitive abilities.

If you don't actually have any interest in communicating something that others can understand, please do cease and desist wasting from our time. Thank you.
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby jupiters_release » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 18:17:05

americandream wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:I hate to break it to you, AD, but you too are akin to our animal brethren. It turns out that you and me and every human ever born is not only akin to animals but actually is an animal. Yup---human beings are animals. We are part of nature. Our DNA is almost identical to the DNA of apes, and only slightly different from the DNA of many other animals.


Absolutely. There is a perfection in instinctual order. But add consciousness to the mix and you in effect introduce a filter from which such things as outcomes, innovative possibilities and ultimately objective functions may be perceived depending on how focussed is ones capacity to reason.

But I take your point as regards most humans and and the incapacity to remain focussed, distracted as they are by the ever driving compulsions of the instinctual world. It is not easy conversing in that context given the incessant chattering but alas, advances in human culture are never easy and often, unwelcomed.


Any pre-war musicologist knows human culture's been regressing ever since. Absolutely no advancement in the arts during industrial history, we were doomed from its beginning and people remain ignorant to the depth of our depravity.
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby americandream » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 18:43:57

dohboi wrote:" it is not easy to grasp"

BS. I read lots of very difficult texts all the time, not only in English, but in Latin, Greek, Sanskrit and many other languages.

For effective communication, someone has to be able to understand what is being said, no matter what the speaker or writer thinks she or he is saying.

If I and other intelligent readers consistently can't understand your language, you should at least have the humility to consider that the fault lies with your prose rather than with our cognitive abilities.

If you don't actually have any interest in communicating something that others can understand, please do cease and desist wasting from our time. Thank you.


I observe you closely and have watched your gradual self destruction into a very angry and directionless individual who at once indulges in quite angry resignation at our predicament yet seems to derive from vicarious pleasure from watching it unfold. The fact nonetheless remains, you are an impotent spectator to the demise you fear. Exacerbating that with a constant refrain as to the rest of your fellow workers propensities to be equally resigned and blind is not really a choir I will join. That said, I often find the ignore button works where for one reason or another, certain situations are indigestible. You should try it. And I say that with all due respect to your phenomenal skills at finding climate concerns which I shall miss.
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 18:57:59

I'm certainly not asking you to join any choir.

And if you are inviting me to put you on ignore, it is certainly a temptation. (You may or may not find it interesting to know that you would be joined on my ignore list by only one other regular poster, the far right wing racist cog.)

I'll just note that you are accusing me both of being angry (why shouldn't we be angry at what is happening to our planet?) and somehow at the same time being 'resigned.' The two claims kind of cancel each other out, don't they?

If you mean by the latter that I understand the dire consequences of the situation we are now in and don't turn away from the hard facts of the matter, I stand guilty as accused.

(I do note that when you are about the business of insulting fellow posters, your prose suddenly gets quite lucid for some reason!! :lol: :lol: Soooo, you can write clearly, you just choose not to when talking about your pseudo-marxist mumbo jumbo because you think people will think you're really, really smart of they can't follow your meandering scattershot prose. Sadly, you don't seem to realize that the opposite is the case.)
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby americandream » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 19:04:14

Hahaha. Emotions. Such cumbersome things. But yes, my focussed criticism of Islam can be an emotional experience. But if you do decide to ignore me, I am quite understanding of your predicament so feel free.
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 21:33:07

IMHO, pound for pound Dohboi is the most intelligent and even-tempered poster on this board.

By and large, people are here because they're filled with some form of negativity. Cynicism, despair, rage. And not all of it is directly related to peak-oil or limits to growth. That's exactly why people like Cog or KJ or StarvingLion feel at-home here, even though they are not on the same limits-to-growth page. The common thread is a discontent with the status quo, or even general discontent with our day to day lives.

And some feel that by banging away at their keyboard long enough and hard enough it might actually do some good. It's like deciding to go down to some ghost-town and get up to the podium and make some highly charged political speech, seemingly unconcerned that there's only a few people within earshot.

The term for that would be pissing in the wind. Peakoil.com, on any given day, is about people pissing in the wind.

Rarely do I read someone's thoughts and feel that they've shared a new wrinkle on the whole narrative. Instead it's like listening to a doomer MUZAK tape on infinite loop. Everyone has their genre and they stick to it.

The one thing I guess I'd like to see more of is evidence of people really reading and thinking about what other people have to say and not just digging their heels in and restating their position ad nauseum. Too much of the internet in general is about people just monologuing and not really having an actual dialogue.

I reserve my respect for posters who have demonstrated in how they interact here that they are reading and thinking through what other people say. Dohboi does. Most here do not (which is no better across general internet discourse).
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 22:23:08

Thanks, en.

Many good points here.
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Mar 2016, 11:31:20

At last something ennui and I can agree on.

I also find dohboi's posts are usually filled with content and information, and his overall tone is measured, rational and usually congenial.

This isn't to say that dohboi doesn't occasionally go off the beam (who doesn't), but in general dohboi is one of the best posters here at peak oil.com

CHEERS!

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I hereby nominate dohboi for the peakoil.com Mr. Congenitality award!
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Mar 2016, 11:48:58

Planty, how did you find a picture of me!! (The horse, not the hunk!! :lol: :lol: :lol: )

Thanks, and try not to peel your skin too much after the sunburn I'm sure you got in the Aegean!! :lol: :lol: :twisted: :twisted: Everyone here in MN is still pretty darn pasty looking! :oops:
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Mar 2016, 12:24:38

Soooo, steering this somewhat back on topic:

I keep reading reports about how climate scientists are responding to this February peak with words like ‘shocking,’ ‘stunning,’ and just ‘wow.’

I agree, and I know they expected _some_ increases in an El Nino year. But now I want to know what the science didn’t anticipate that has made this monthly peak so high (and I realized that, just as it is difficult to predict the exact effects of GW on a particular place, it is hard to predict what global heat levels will be over just a month’s period).

1) Was it just that the El Nino disgorged even more heat than expected? If so, the timing seems a bit off, since the peak of this El Nino was back in November, iirc. Does it just take that long for the heat to propagate through the system?

2) Was there an additional push from carbon feedbacks starting to kick in? Specifically, there have been recent reports that terrestrial soils, plants and other biological activity are actually a net source of GHGs, rather than a net sink. “when you include the other two main greenhouse gases – methane and nitrous oxide – this completely changes the role of the land in that instead of having a cooling effect on the climate, it has a net warming effect” http://www.azocleantech.com/news.aspx?newsID=23234

It’s not clear to me whether this finding represents mostly a shift in our understanding, or if it also suggests that this shift from sink to source is also a recent development.

3) Are we starting to see the effects of economic slowdown, cleaning up of coal plants, and a general move away from coal on the ‘aerosol umbrella’? Is there some place where they monitor atmospheric aerosols? Has there been a statistically significant change?

4) Is there some other potential cause that I (or possibly even the whole scientific community) have not considered?

Of course, it could be some combination of the above, but if so, it would be nice to know how much each contributed, since if 2 and 3 are major factors, we may not see this ‘peak’ drop down quite back to the old linear upward trend (bad as that already was), but rather start on a new, steeper upward trajectory, or it could exhibit a ‘step change.’

Sorry for the multiple questions, but I feel a bit like someone who, somehow conscious during his own brain surgery on what he thought was a serious but minor brain tumor, suddenly hears the surgeon say ‘Wow!’

One rather wants to know something about what is behind that ‘wow,’ and about what it means for the longer term prospects and prognoses.
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 18 Mar 2016, 13:39:30

dohboi wrote:Soooo, steering this somewhat back on topic:

I keep reading reports about how climate scientists are responding to this February peak with words like ‘shocking,’ ‘stunning,’ and just ‘wow.’

I agree, and I know they expected _some_ increases in an El Nino year. But now I want to know what the science didn’t anticipate that has made this monthly peak so high (and I realized that, just as it is difficult to predict the exact effects of GW on a particular place, it is hard to predict what global heat levels will be over just a month’s period).

1) Was it just that the El Nino disgorged even more heat than expected? If so, the timing seems a bit off, since the peak of this El Nino was back in November, iirc. Does it just take that long for the heat to propagate through the system?

2) Was there an additional push from carbon feedbacks starting to kick in? Specifically, there have been recent reports that terrestrial soils, plants and other biological activity are actually a net source of GHGs, rather than a net sink. “when you include the other two main greenhouse gases – methane and nitrous oxide – this completely changes the role of the land in that instead of having a cooling effect on the climate, it has a net warming effect” http://www.azocleantech.com/news.aspx?newsID=23234

It’s not clear to me whether this finding represents mostly a shift in our understanding, or if it also suggests that this shift from sink to source is also a recent development.

3) Are we starting to see the effects of economic slowdown, cleaning up of coal plants, and a general move away from coal on the ‘aerosol umbrella’? Is there some place where they monitor atmospheric aerosols? Has there been a statistically significant change?

4) Is there some other potential cause that I (or possibly even the whole scientific community) have not considered?

Of course, it could be some combination of the above, but if so, it would be nice to know how much each contributed, since if 2 and 3 are major factors, we may not see this ‘peak’ drop down quite back to the old linear upward trend (bad as that already was), but rather start on a new, steeper upward trajectory, or it could exhibit a ‘step change.’

Sorry for the multiple questions, but I feel a bit like someone who, somehow conscious during his own brain surgery on what he thought was a serious but minor brain tumor, suddenly hears the surgeon say ‘Wow!’

One rather wants to know something about what is behind that ‘wow,’ and about what it means for the longer term prospects and prognoses.


I think we can discount 3, for every one old dirty plant shut down there are two
or three more coal burners starting up in Turkey and India and China and many other places. My fear is its a combination of 1 and 2, the El Niño was in the Super class just like the 97-98 event, which is the 1. For the 2, the thawed season in the Arctic permafrost zone has grown by not just a day or two, but by a week or maybe three weeks. There is a statement I read a few years ago when studying Terra Preta in Brazil. If you take any biological material like say, a nice juicy ham sandwich and you put it in a screen box in Brazil any time of the year the decay bacteria will break it down in a couple days at the most. Take the ham sandwich, cut it in half and put half in a screen box at 45 degrees north or south and the decay bacteria will break it down in a couple days in summer, but not at all in winter. They need a threshold temperature, generally seen as 0 C, to be active at all. They work best at around human body temperature, but even in a fridge they slowly break down your food. As the permafrost zones become seasonal frozen zones that means they start experiencing a lot more decay each summer than they used to.

It's a feedback loop and I think we have set it in motion.
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Mar 2016, 16:27:15

Good points, as usual, Sub.

I confess to not knowing the details of current coal plant production very well. But I'm pretty sure that China is not building any (or at least not many) more dirty plants, and is shutting down old dirty ones. China being responsible for half of all coal burned on the planet, it would take a lot of new dirty plants to make up for those.

(There also may be a different effect for aerosols emitted in the mid latitudes of the northern hemisphere than there would be for those emitted in the tropics, as would be the case with for example India, but I can't remember how the physics of that right now, and I could just be mis-remembering something here. If others have info, please do share.)
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 21 Mar 2016, 00:00:14

Here's a link to the aerosol thread at neven's site: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.p ... 384.0.html
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby americandream » Mon 21 Mar 2016, 00:36:44

Plantagenet wrote:At last something ennui and I can agree on.I also find dohboi's posts are usually filled with content and information, and his overall tone is measured, rational and usually congenial.


I expect to see the two of you manning the barricades to valiantly defend the system when push comes to shove.
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby americandream » Mon 21 Mar 2016, 16:42:10

This is a WTF post. Its hard to make sense of half the shit the media posts these days.. increasingly you get the feeling that most media punters out there wuldn't find their zips for a quick call of nature. Maybe doughboy can make sense of it. I am done trying to take these credible links serious...like trading...a bunch of confused windbags....one minute up, next minute down. Its going up, just get used to it and change, dumb fcuks!!

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-clima ... e=Facebook
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Re: February breaks global temperature records by 'shocking'

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 21 Mar 2016, 16:48:27

Agreed that the MSM is mostly idiotic, and headlines in particular.

But perhaps you could explain what exactly it is you find confusing about this particular piece.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 25 Mar 2017, 09:59:04

dohboi wrote:Thanks for the complement.

But maybe you can help me out on the last bit. What term do you prefer to characterize a position that denies basic science? I will be happy to use it. This one just seems to be the most accurate.

"Skeptic" does not seem accurate to me because real skeptics (which all scientists are, of course) are skeptical about all positions until they hold up to scientific inquiry, as AGW has done now for years. They only seem to be 'skeptical' of the conclusion of far better trained and informed skeptics--climate scientists--while being not at all skeptical of the utter nonsense put out by such sites as WUWT.

Also, I am curious: do you equally chide folks who use terms like 'AGW fanboys'? If not, do you see a problem there?

Thanks, as always for all your great work here, by the way.



Yes I do chide all sides from time to time, however the frequency of insults is not a balanced equation so some would see chastisement as only going one way.

To answer your query about terminology, why is it necessary to use the terms fanboy-denier-skeptic at all? There is no need to characterize the opponent, let their own words do that for them.

Insults, no matter whom they are issued by nor whom the recipient is are an attempt to shape the readers opinions about the other party through insulting or demeaning them. You are a well educated adult, surely you can fully counter any fact based logical fallacy without resorting to name calling?

I am not claiming perfection in this regard, I too get frustrated and occasionally slip into such responses, but after your logical science based defense to slip into such at the end of the statement is counter productive, especially if your goal is to convince the layperson reading your statement.
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