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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 20 Jan 2017, 05:49:34

Polls are horribly unreliable on every politically charged issue because most people will give the answer of the party they identify with no matter what they think personally. Add in that the way a poll is structured has a significant impact on the way another 10 percent or so of the population answers by giving two or three leading questions before asking the 'key' question to sway that percentage of the population that isn't axiomatically using their party of choice stance and you can get any poll to show a 'majority' agree with statement X.

You can do the same manipulation with Abortion or Gun Control or Renewable energy Subsidies simply by how you work the questions. Abortion is a clear and concise neutral word but if I ask you, 'Are you pro-Choice or Anti-Choice?" clearly the answer I am hoping for is you are 'pro-choice', which sounds ever so much nicer than 'pro-abortion'. By the same manipulation if I replace the words so I am asking are you 'pro-life' or 'anti-life' clearly I am hoping you are going to say 'pro-life'.

So you want the poll to say most Americans think President Trump is a Chump, Climate Change Is Real. You start the poll with a boilerplate statement that goes something like this, '97 percent of climate scientists say humans are causing global warming and it is dangerous, especially to the minority poor and children who will be most impacted. Do you think climate change is a threat?' Or you can be a bit more subtle and spread the statements out into a series of lesser statements so the conclusion is the same but the presentation is a bit less heavy handed.

This is exactly why polls about President Trump were so far wrong, the Media hates the man so every poll they took started from the POV that all right thinking people were against him. In a country as evenly divided as the USA that sways enough of that squishy 10 percent who just say what they say to get along and the skewed result looks like a landslide. It is the same effect in reverse with President Obama, the media love the guy so when they ask people if the country was heading the right direction under his leadership the result was 65 percent say NO or Heck No!, but when they ask if people approve of the President personally they say "Oh yes of course' no matter how they actually feel about him. People don't want to be called racists for not liking the First Black President, so when a poll is taken they lie in the face of the poll takers. It is the Bradley effect, not at all unknown, but if the media is dishonest they ignore the effect and just report the numbers that say what they wish were true.

The reality is, most Americans Do Not Believe Global Warming is A Threat. You can tell because their lifestyle is 180 degrees away from what a true believer would act. They buy trucks and SUV's for personal transport, fly cross country for vacations, have their A/C set to 70 or less in the summer and their heat set to 75 or higher in the winter. The examples are as endless as the number of ways Americans profligately waste fossil fuel energy.
https://ballotpedia.org/Bradley_effect
The Bradley effect, sometimes called the Wilder effect, is a concept that attempts to explain discrepancies between voter opinion polls and outcomes in elections where white candidates campaign against minority candidates. Adherents of the Bradley effect believe that some voters will tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a minority candidate but will vote against the minority candidate on Election Day. It was named for Tom Bradley, an African-American candidate who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial race despite having a lead in the polls going into the election.

A related concept is social desirability bias, which describes the tendency of individuals to "report inaccurately on sensitive topics in order to present themselves in the best possible light." According to New York University professor Patrick Egan, "Anyone who studies survey research will tell you one of the biggest problems we encounter is this notion of social desirability bias." Some researchers and pollsters theorize that a number of white voters may give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation.

Some analysts have dismissed the Bradley effect theory; others have argued that it has played a diminishing role in recent elections. One analysis of 180 Senate and gubernatorial elections between 1989 and 2006 suggested that "before 1996, the median gap [in public polling data and actual vote share] for black candidates was 3.1 percentage points, while for subsequent years it was -0.3 percentage points."
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 20 Jan 2017, 09:50:47

That's like saying that no smoker believes that cigarettes are a threat to their health because they're still smoking.

People hold beliefs and understandings that contradict their actions all the time.

The idea that no one really understands something unless everything they do is completely consistent with that understanding is, well, ridiculous.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 20 Jan 2017, 14:14:01

I did not say NOBODY or to use your statement NO ONE believes in human caused global warming. I said
Tanada wrote:Polls are horribly unreliable on every politically charged issue because most people will give the answer of the party they identify with no matter what they think personally.


I stand by that statement.

BTW my oldest brother was a lifelong smoker who died of liver cancer in August 2016. He knew smoking was bad for him pretty much from the time he started smoking in the early 1960's, and he advised his kids not to smoke, but he continued to smoke and drink heavily until his health was destroyed and he was under constant care. Lots of people do things they know are bad for themselves, but many others choose to quit and keep on quitting until they succeed.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 12:42:37

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/doc ... _ref=green


More Than Half Of U.S. Medical Professionals Unite To Raise Alarm About Climate Change
Global warming poses an increased risk for asthma, lung illnesses, Lyme disease, Zika virus and anxiety, among other things.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dissident » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 13:17:21

dohboi wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/doctors-climate-change_us_58c85231e4b01c029d7717ed?ir=Green&utm_hp_ref=green


More Than Half Of U.S. Medical Professionals Unite To Raise Alarm About Climate Change
Global warming poses an increased risk for asthma, lung illnesses, Lyme disease, Zika virus and anxiety, among other things.


Be careful, the new denier trope is that consensus proves collusion and conspiracy. So the fact that independent researchers agree on the science when the published literature is reviewed is "proof" of some secret coordination to push an agenda. This is the tin foil hat nutjob paranoia of the deniers.

BTW, I heard up close and personal, many years ago, Lindzen make a statement about "consensus" not being a valid argument to use to justify science. He was right. But recently this argument has been distorted to claim that atmospheric science operates a group-think hive. Like I replied to the roc-tard, I have never seen "consensus" used in any physics paper that I have read and conference that I have attended because nobody would invoke "consensus" as a basis for anything. The science is considered on the data and the plausibility of the models used to explain the data. Not on some party line.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 13:41:34

Good points, as usual, dis.

Not sure if this has been posted here. It's from last fall:

http://www.sciencealert.com/scientists- ... ate-change

There's no doubt our planet is getting hotter and hotter, but the long-term outlook could be even worse than we thought. Scientists are now saying it might already be too late to avoid a temperature rise of up to 7.36 degrees Celsius (13.25 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

That's way above the upper limit of 4.8 degrees Celsius (8.6 degrees Fahrenheit) predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2014, and to make matters worse, a new study suggests that we're underestimating just how sensitive Earth is to greenhouse gases...


Here's a link to the full article: http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/ ... 01923.full
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 14:32:54

dissident wrote:
dohboi wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/doctors-climate-change_us_58c85231e4b01c029d7717ed?ir=Green&utm_hp_ref=green


More Than Half Of U.S. Medical Professionals Unite To Raise Alarm About Climate Change
Global warming poses an increased risk for asthma, lung illnesses, Lyme disease, Zika virus and anxiety, among other things.


Be careful, the new denier trope is that consensus proves collusion and conspiracy. So the fact that independent researchers agree on the science when the published literature is reviewed is "proof" of some secret coordination to push an agenda. This is the tin foil hat nutjob paranoia of the deniers.

BTW, I heard up close and personal, many years ago, Lindzen make a statement about "consensus" not being a valid argument to use to justify science. He was right. But recently this argument has been distorted to claim that atmospheric science operates a group-think hive. Like I replied to the roc-tard, I have never seen "consensus" used in any physics paper that I have read and conference that I have attended because nobody would invoke "consensus" as a basis for anything. The science is considered on the data and the plausibility of the models used to explain the data. Not on some party line.


The reason that we free thinking individuals oppose "consensus" is that the group-think nature-denier AGW crowd claim "consensus of Scientists" and "settled Science" in most arguments here at PO.com. It is not and never has been a valid argument as you pointed out.

I maintain a skeptical view of AGW myself, since nobody has yet made a truly convincing argument that the theory is correct. I am however certain of the consequences of "avoiding AGW", since we depend upon cheap petroleum for about 80% of the food production and food processing and food transport worldwide. To advocate that we "avoid AGW" is to advocate human genocide today. That would seem in the face of it to be worse than any adverse impact of AGW. Besides which, actual warming (whether from natural or manmade causes) is lagging the predictions by a fair margin, as feedbacks kick in to lessen the impact of carbon dioxide.

dissident, if you want any respect around here, you'll knock off the silly abusive distortions of somebody's screen name. I was tempted to say "dissident-tard", but thought better of it. Reasonable people can hold differing opinions than yours, which seem to be mostly defective anyways.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 06:26:59

Here's a different commentary on the paper linked above.
https://julesandjames.blogspot.co.uk/20 ... e-now.html

Thanks to crandles at neven's site for this link.

With feedbacks kicking in at the same time Trump has become the leader of the country responsible for a large portion of global carbon pollution, though, 7 plus degrees before the end of the century is looking rather optimistic to me, actually.

(That is unless KJ proves that CO2 and methane have different absorption frequencies for electromagnetic waves than those discovered by scientists over a hundred years ago, as well as finding some other explanation for observed warming that is easily resolvable. I hope and pray he, or someone, does do so soon, but I'm not holding my breath. :) :cry: )
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 09:58:48

You do remember that 7C is at the top of the range for a hothouse Earth scenario right? The only way to get there is for both poles of our planet to be temperate with semi-tropical environment dominating everything from 65 degrees latitude to the actual tropics around 23 degrees latitude.

It could happen, but I doubt it can happen anywhere near that fast because there is a heck of a lot of ice in Antarctica that has to melt to get there.
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Re: Peak Energy and Climate Change - The Logical Connections

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 14:00:26

dohboi wrote:Just a quick note for now.

In the third from last paragraph you say "Eventually, the Earth and life will recover fully "

Is this really something we can know for certain?

It is often repeated, but is sounds more like a statement of faith than something we can know.

It will "fully recover" just it won't be the same as it was (say) 10,000 years ago, a whole new bio-diversity will have developed to replace those eradicated by human activity.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 14:13:44

Tanada wrote:You do remember that 7C is at the top of the range for a hothouse Earth scenario right? The only way to get there is for both poles of our planet to be temperate with semi-tropical environment dominating everything from 65 degrees latitude to the actual tropics around 23 degrees latitude.

It could happen, but I doubt it can happen anywhere near that fast because there is a heck of a lot of ice in Antarctica that has to melt to get there.

So New York and Vermont become like Florida? :)
With a 110 feet of sea level rise there will be beach frontage in Rutland.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 14:21:50

You climate doomers are a sad sad sad bunch. :cry: The earth will abide. Not so man. Peak oil is killing us now.

A new study shows that corals around Japan are moving north at incredible speeds.

"One species has even moved an amazing 14 kilometers a year. This could mean that Ocean ecosystems could shift rapidly due to climate-change impacts such as warming seas."
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 15:05:25

T, yeah, I expect the southern hemisphere will behave differently than the northern hemisphere, but neither will be pretty.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 19:45:39

pstarr wrote:You climate doomers are a sad sad sad bunch. :cry: The earth will abide. Not so man. Peak oil is killing us now.

A new study shows that corals around Japan are moving north at incredible speeds.

"One species has even moved an amazing 14 kilometers a year. This could mean that Ocean ecosystems could shift rapidly due to climate-change impacts such as warming seas."


The dat on that news blurb is January 2011, six years and two months ago. That is hardly what I would call a 'new' study. Even worse, I Binged all over the internet looking for the peer reviewed artcle 'soon to be published' and couldn't find any evidence it ever was published and peer reviewed.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 09:18:14

(Thanks for truth-checking p's rants, sub. Since pretty much every such investigation shows he's spewing bs, I quit the exercise long ago.)

Meanwhile:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -territory

Record-breaking climate change pushes world into ‘uncharted territory’

Earth is a planet in upheaval, say scientists, as the World Meteorological Organisation publishes analysis of recent heat highs and ice lows


“Even without a strong El Niño in 2017, we are seeing other remarkable changes across the planet that are challenging the limits of our understanding of the climate system. We are now in truly uncharted territory,” said David Carlson, director of the WMO’s world climate research programme.

“Earth is a planet in upheaval due to human-caused changes in the atmosphere,” said Jeffrey Kargel, a glaciologist at the University of Arizona in the US. “In general, drastically changing conditions do not help civilisation, which thrives on stability.”

The WMO report was “startling”, said Prof David Reay, an emissions expert at the University of Edinburgh: “The need for concerted action on climate change has never been so stark nor the stakes so high.”
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 11:11:51

The dat on that news blurb is January 2011, six years and two months ago. That is hardly what I would call a 'new' study. Even worse, I Binged all over the internet looking for the peer reviewed artcle 'soon to be published' and couldn't find any evidence it ever was published and peer reviewed.


I suggest you need some help with basic journal research then, I found the article in about a minute of searching:

Yamano, H, Sugihara, K, Nomura, K. 2011. Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures. Geoph Res Lett, V 38, 4, DOI: 10.1029/2010GL046474

Abstract: Rising temperatures caused by climatic warming may cause poleward range shifts and/or expansions in species distribution. Tropical reef corals (hereafter corals) are some of the world's most important species, being not only primary producers, but also habitat-forming species, and thus fundamental ecosystem modification is expected according to changes in their distribution. Although most studies of climate change effects on corals have focused on temperature-induced coral bleaching in tropical areas, poleward range shifts and/or expansions may also occur in temperate areas. We show the first large-scale evidence of the poleward range expansion of modern corals, based on 80 years of national records from the temperate areas of Japan, where century-long measurements of in situ sea-surface temperatures have shown statistically significant rises. Four major coral species categories, including two key species for reef formation in tropical areas, showed poleward range expansions since the 1930s, whereas no species demonstrated southward range shrinkage or local extinction. The speed of these expansions reached up to 14 km/year, which is far greater than that for other species. Our results, in combination with recent findings suggesting range expansions of tropical coral-reef associated organisms, strongly suggest that rapid, fundamental modifications of temperate coastal ecosystems could be in progress.


and as to it being out of date the authors published updated research on the same topic in a 2015 journal article

Takao S., Yamano H., Sugihara K., Kumagai N., Fujii M., Yamanaka Y. 2015. An improved estimation of the poleward expansion of coral habitats based on inter-annual variation of sea surface temperatures. Coral Reefs, 34, 1125-1137

Abstract. The poleward expansion of coral habitats has been observed along the Japanese coast since the 1930s. Previous modeling studies have projected a poleward expansion using decadal-mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the coldest months. However, this poleward expansion could be affected by the inter-annual variation of SST in the coldest months, which has not been considered before. In this study, the simulated pattern of poleward expansion was compared between cases where coral mortality was considered based on the inter-annual variation of SST and the decadal-mean SST in the coldest months. Modeled monthly mean SSTs for historical and future global warming simulations from the most recent climate projection model (MIROC4h) were used. The poleward expansion of corals simulated by considering mortality based on the inter-annual variation of SST in the coldest months better reproduced the observed poleward expansion speed compared to the simulations without such a consideration. Our results show the importance of considering coral mortality based on the inter-annual variation of seawater temperature to produce a more realistic poleward expansion of coral habitats
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 12:10:18

A thousand years from today, on the shore of the N polar ocean, one imagines a polar bear, gingerly walking across a broken coral beach, in pursuit of seals and otters, which are living offshore on rafts of floating seaweed. None of the three species is exactly as we know them today, all are evolving rapidly due to CC. All are enjoying the respite from the predations of the human species, still in decline after the oil peak. A few rusted orange traces of oxidized steel are all that mark the landscape from the Age of Oil.

Earth Abides. Both a prediction and the title of an Apocalyptic novel I still remember decades after reading.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 12:22:19

Kind of ridiculous. There won't be any polar bears in the future, nor grizzlies for that matter. Their meat is probably pretty good. Not many people either, if any at all.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 12:34:54

Doom, doom, doom. A simplistic view of the future, and almost certainly wrong. There never has been a worldwide disaster/collapse from internal forces, and likely there never will be. The worldwide disasters and mass extinctions we read in the fossil records are independent of the animals inhabiting the Earth at the time. A giant comet/asteroid/etc. strikes the Yucatan Peninsula 65 million years ago, and cashes in the chips of all the dinosaurs, who persist only as small and largely helpless birds. Multiple mega-volcanoes erupt in the Permian Age, and 90% of the life on Earth perishes. But there is no precedent for any worldwide disaster or mass extinction caused by an animal species. Unlikely there will ever be one, either. The Earth is not in peril, only the humans that live here. Whether we continue to dominate after the overshoot human population dies back, or are replaced and dominated in turn by another species, remains to be seen. But Earth Abides.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 13:01:55

We are changing basic earth patterns faster than many species can adapt. When anything close to this much CO2 gushed into the atmosphere anything like this fast earlier in the earth's history, the ensuing heating brought on most of the great mass extinction events in the history of complex life on earth.

People saying that they know for sure that 'the earth will be just fine' if they mean by that the full complexity of complex life on earth are ignorant of the history of complex life on earth (or are trying to sell you something). The fact that this religious-like faith in 'earth abiding' comes from fiction books just seals the point.
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