[DesuMaiden]

According this video,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8j4Tyy5nsQ8

the world's economy will collapse in 2020. That's only 5 to 6 years away. This is because our oil production will decrease to an insufficient level to meet our current demand for oil. By 2027, our oil production will only be able to met 1/2 of the global demand for oil. This will cause a major economic depression and food storage around the world.

Get ready for the worst because it is happening soon.

[Tanada]

As one of the older crew who have been here since the mid Aughts five more years will be 15 years after I arrived. Soon in a geological sense, certainly, but long overdue if you argued the timing for the last decade

[Pops]

If you notice, the datelines are all 3-5 years old. 2015 is a couple of months away and the production of oilish stuff is higher than when the vid was made. Things change and you have to keep up - I realize you are later to this party than some but my best advice is to look out for the pinch points rather than fretting over some apocalyptic collapse that will crush everything.

After reading this stuff for years, I'll say predicting the future is tough, but much tougher when one chooses to consume only a particular version of the present. That is the trick, keeping an open mind to whatever evidence presents and making your plans based on the best evidence rather than the best rationalization for your existing plan.

I'd like to say I have an open mind, probably a better description is that my mind wanders, LOL.

Not saying a global collapse is impossible, anything's possible, even contracting ebola from a doorknob in Bunker, Mo; but you need to play the odds.

[GHung]

I'm with Pops and Tanada; been beating this drum going on 20 years and have learned to not under-estimate the amount of shear inertia and faux-trust in 20th century systems, though I did under-estimate central banks' insane ability to extend and pretend.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-2 ... of-qe.html

Quantitative easing may turn out to be a gift that keeps on giving for the U.S. economy.
As the Federal Reserve prepares to end its third round of bond buying next week, the central bank plans to hang on to the record $4.48 trillion balance sheet it has accumulated since announcing the first round of purchases in November 2008.
That will continue to keep a lid on borrowing costs, helping the Fed lift inflation closer to its target and providing support to a five-year expansion facing headwinds abroad, from war in the Mideast to slowing growth in Europe and China...

Surely they know these unprecedentedly high levels of debt can never be paid off; that a giant reset is thoroughly baked in. Extend and pretend is how the future will define the early 21st century, when all global systems have been linked and leveraged to each other to a remarkable degree.

Just how far into overshoot our collective can push their relationship to the planet remains to be seen, but every year this paradigm continues will make the inevitable decline exponentially worse. The downside to industrial man's ascent gets steeper by the moment, as the pressure increases, all of our relief valves are beeing wired shut; consequences compounded and delayed, but certainly not avoided. Fossil fuels are the 'Ring of Power', and we are Gollum.

Greer mentioned in this week's post that -

One wrinkle many people miss is that we’re not waiting for the first of the three and a half rounds of crisis and recovery to hit; we’re waiting for the second. The first began in 1914 and ended around 1954, driven by the downfall of the British Empire and the collapse of European domination of the globe...

Whenever the next crisis becomes undeniable, it will be a great laugh/cry moment for me personally, if I'm around to see it, here from the cheap seats; how could some of us have been so right and all of us have been so wrong? Hopefully we haven't destroyed any chances for whomever or whatever remains,, to survive in the mess we've made.

[JuanP]

Desu, we are already living in a world that gets worse every day. I hope you are right and we have five years. I see things unraveling scaringly fast right now. In the USA, in particular, the situation is hopeless because of the horrible government policies. And, it seems, that the US government has decided to drag the rest of the world down with them, unfortunately.
Live for today, man. The future sucks!

[KingM]

For the final collapse to happen "sooner than you think" for the PO crowd, it would have come to pass around 2006 or so.

[MonteQuest]

Desu,

The economics effects of peak oil happen well in advance of demand outstripping supply. The economy, as we have come to know it, collapsed when the oil price increased 300%. Only a unfathomable amount of debt, inflated assets, and creative book-keeping keeps this afloat. The tipping point for a global economic collapse may have little to do with actual production, but price and debt affecting GDP and economic oil production.

[dolanbaker]

Global collapse is very unlikely, simply down to the fact that far too many powerful individuals have a huge stake in it! That's not to say that from time to time sectors of the economy will "be left out to dry" like The European banking sector a decade ago, or Irish construction industry (which lost something like 80% of its staff).

The real impact is that we are already past "peak lifestyle" in the west, the fact that most of our consumer goods are made in China using cheap labour, hides this decline well.

The boom-bust cycle will continue on as usual, but with one difference, in future it is likely that the peak of each boom will be lower than the previous boom, previously it used to be higher.

Another thing to consider is that the inflation that used to "hide the debt", is almost non-existent due to the inability to raise interest rates for fear of killing the economy.

[Deputy Barnes]

Just one problem with this: The west's population is shrinking. It does not matter if the powerful want the economy to collapse or not when the demographics just aren't in their hands. People in their 50s and 60s are retiring, those in their 20s are not having hardly any kids anymore and those kids are not as interested in finance, science or engineering as their predecessors. Young males are sitting out the workforce and in nations like Japan they are increasingly retreating to their bedrooms to immerse themselves in video games, to escape the harsh, crushing reality of being a young male in the 1st world. China also has an aging problem. We are about to witness the greatest exodus of investors out of the market the world has ever seen. You had better believe the system is going to crash and burn to a crisp.

Global collapse is very unlikely, simply down to the fact that far too many powerful individuals have a huge stake in it! That's not to say that from time to time sectors of the economy will "be left out to dry" like The European banking sector a decade ago, or Irish construction industry (which lost something like 80% of its staff).

The real impact is that we are already past "peak lifestyle" in the west, the fact that most of our consumer goods are made in China using cheap labour, hides this decline well.

The boom-bust cycle will continue on as usual, but with one difference, in future it is likely that the peak of each boom will be lower than the previous boom, previously it used to be higher.

Another thing to consider is that the inflation that used to "hide the debt", is almost non-existent due to the inability to raise interest rates for fear of killing the economy.

[dolanbaker]

The west's population is shrinking.

It is not shrinking at all, inward migration is more than making up for any reductions in "western" population.
Just look around some of the cities in England, and you'll think that you're in the Middle East!

Just did a google and was amazed to find this page in a search for "Bradford Market" http://www.chohakhalsa.com/uk.html

I think that it proves my point much more than I ever could.

[Deputy Barnes]

The west's population is shrinking.

It is not shrinking at all, inward migration is more than making up for any reductions in "western" population.
Just look around some of the cities in England, and you'll think that you're in the Middle East!

Just did a google and was amazed to find this page in a search for "Bradford Market" http://www.chohakhalsa.com/uk.html

I think that it proves my point much more than I ever could.

The main problem being that none of these immigrants are interested in science, finance, engineering or any other thing that drives the wests economy. They are a growing permanent underclass; nothing more.

[dolanbaker]

The west's population is shrinking.

It is not shrinking at all, inward migration is more than making up for any reductions in "western" population.
Just look around some of the cities in England, and you'll think that you're in the Middle East!

Just did a google and was amazed to find this page in a search for "Bradford Market" http://www.chohakhalsa.com/uk.html

I think that it proves my point much more than I ever could.

The main problem being that none of these immigrants are interested in science, finance, engineering or any other thing that drives the wests economy. They are a growing permanent underclass; nothing more.

Don't underestimate the Indian community, if you don't believe me, go into a Computer shop and check out the ethnic makeup of the staff.

Ignore the racial origin of the population and you'll find that the west's population is still growing rapidly. The underclass is mostly poorer uneducated people of all ethnic backgrounds.

In this part of the world we call them knackers!

[RepublicanfromEngland]

There sure is another financial mess brewing up, not a complete collaspse, nah.

[ralfy]

If global economic collapse involves lack of basic needs due to lack of income, then many of the effects of such a collapse have been in place for years.

[Shaved Monkey]

What we are seeing is poorer people having to make a choice between heat or eat.
This extends to the middle class as cost of living pressures.
Energy poverty.

[Quinny]

Total BS!

The west's population is shrinking.

It is not shrinking at all, inward migration is more than making up for any reductions in "western" population.
Just look around some of the cities in England, and you'll think that you're in the Middle East!

Just did a google and was amazed to find this page in a search for "Bradford Market" http://www.chohakhalsa.com/uk.html

I think that it proves my point much more than I ever could.

The main problem being that none of these immigrants are interested in science, finance, engineering or any other thing that drives the wests economy. They are a growing permanent underclass; nothing more.

[Keith_McClary]

The main problem being that none of these immigrants are interested in science, finance, engineering or any other thing that drives the wests economy. They are a growing permanent underclass; nothing more.

[DesuMaiden]

The main problem being that none of these immigrants are interested in science, finance, engineering or any other thing that drives the wests economy. They are a growing permanent underclass; nothing more.

What difference does that make? They are still becoming a permanent underclass.

[Dybbuk]

According this video,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8j4Tyy5nsQ8

the world's economy will collapse in 2020. That's only 5 to 6 years away. This is because our oil production will decrease to an insufficient level to meet our current demand for oil. By 2027, our oil production will only be able to met 1/2 of the global demand for oil. This will cause a major economic depression and food storage around the world.

Get ready for the worst because it is happening soon.

The language is being abused here. "Demand" isn't a single number; conceptually it's a line/curve that varies depending on price. If you're defining demand as "what people want to use", then supply never meets demand, because there are always things we could do with more oil if it were being produced. Maybe a more interesting question is when oil production will fail to provide for vital uses where there are no current substitutes. But of course, "vital" is sometimes in the eye of the beholder.

[tom_s2]

Hi desumaiden,

Get ready for the worst because it is happening soon.

Much of this peak oil/energy decline stuff is crackpot and wrong. Civilization is not collapsing, or at least not for those reasons. I don't think anyone who is an expert on transportation networks, fertilizer production, etc, believes that stuff.

The peak oil collapse movement has a long history of badly failed predictions, going back to 2004 or so. All those failed predictions means there's something wrong with it. There's no reason to expect their new predictions to be any more accurate than their old ones, because they haven't really modified their theories despite constant failed predictions.

Every once in awhile, I follow a collapse/doomsday group, out of curiosity. I've met people who've been preparing for IMMINENT doomsday, over and over again, year after year, for more than 30 years. I hope you don't become one of them. You're a young man, and you have a lot to lose.

If you really want to prepare for collapse/doomsday, then just hoard a year's worth of canned food and water in the closet where you live, and then forget about it, move on, and live your life.

Best wishes,
-Tom S