[Waterthrush]

It is true that we are approaching the issue from different perspectives, and that I am far more focused on one thread (depopulation or declining population), while you have a much larger scenario outlined.

Yet, if you don't mind staying focused on my single thread one more time, I am just so intrigued as to WHY a declining population in Europe is so uniformly seen as a Bad Thing. I've outlined half a dozen reasons why the current situation could easily be seen as a positive, yet it isn't. You seem to agree as well that a declining poulation could be a plus - but therefore doesn't it intrigue you as to why there is such an unquestioned assumption that population declines is a Bad Thing?

As for the rest of your argument, I hope you will keep your predictions readily at hand for future checking! Like pstarr, I think your "grand chessboard" is too large and detailed to ever come true - and that sounds more critical than I mean it to be. Yet, I have learnt humility as a historian (my kind of realism, lol). The events of 1989 were so unexpected, so utterly out of the blue (in spite of two decades since then of people swearing that they saw it coming - I was around then, and I remember: no one predicted the fall of communism in a year. I NEVER expected Germany to be reunited in my lifetime. It's the historian's proper purview to look back and try to understand what was going on - and to be humble that no one caught it.) Peak Oil is such a wildcard. How will it play out - I am not sure.

I give you credit for trying to think it through, and it is fun to try to move the pieces around, but it is even more fun to observe and follow events as they take unexpected turns, the historian's traditional preserve. I am fairly confident in saying only, "There will be wars, and rumours of wars," as they are already underway.

Actually, looking over this again, I admit I'm not even responding to the many points of your argument. (outside of my own narrow interest). So my critique is pretty lame! "I have a gut feeling that your scenario is too complex." Pretty lame! But, I do. And now I release you to enjoy the more detailed gamepiece moves over Europe's grand chessboard, a game with its own long history.

[Last_Historian]

@rangerone314,

When and under what circumstances, would you foresee the unraveling of the NATO alliance?

Once the superpower underpinning it fails (no-one likes a loser), its ideology is discredited, and member states discover they are better off building their own security arrangements. Warsaw Pact.

@Waterthrush,

If Europe did not have a history of national antagonisms that can easily resurface, did not have such extensive welfare systems (/ unfulfillable liabilities - e.g. an astounding 560% % of GDP for Germany, according to this recent Oil Drum post), then yes - there'd be much less cause for concern.

As for why population decrease is seen as a Bad Thing. If I had to guess, I would say that in pre-industrial societies the only time when populations decreased was in times of severe Malthusian stress, when the death rate from disease attacking weakened immune systems, and sometimes outright famine, increased the death rate, while women's fertility was decreased by poor nutrition. Planned fertility is, for the most part, a 20th century thing. Hence, bad associations from 2mn years of human history - whenever people see a declining population, they associate it with growing poverty and collapse, even if intellectually they know that this time round its because of choice.

(Though choice only to an extent. Surveys show that in European countries the typical desired fertility is 1.8-2.5, whereas the EU average is 1.5. This indicates that the expense and opportunity costs of bringing up children in a developed society are considered to be uncomfortably high for many Europeans.)

Re-the rest. Thanks for the interesting introspection. I have an excuse for doing more, I write about it on my blog and hope to have a book on it out next year.

[rangerone314]

One possible solution for Europe's demographic issue:
Political descent into fascism and ultranationalism

1) All immigration is halted and all non-Europeans and immigrants are expelled or killed
2) Old people are euthenized... (like "Logan's Run")
3) Welfare whiners are shot on the street corners and/or strung from street corner lampposts

Eurabia... check.
Aging population... check.
Welfare state... check.

[sparky]

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rangerone314 , your second and third point are redundant ,
cut off government pensions or doles an the numbers should improve considerably


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[evgeny]

THE NEW FACE OF EUROPE

[evgeny]

Herman Van Who? – Oh-so-Van Bilderberg

How they came to Herman van Rompuy to take? Who is that?



To determine the secretiveness of the 27 EU leaders behind closed doors to the minor as the first Belgian EU presidency to be the papal election in the Vatican or the time the election of the party secretary in the Soviet Politburo seem very transparent. Only thing missing was the white smoke after its decision.

Outside of Belgium, no one has heard of Rompuy. How can such an unknown quantity to EU President? And the post of EU Foreign Minister, Baroness Catherine Ashton won the British with no leadership experience, and also unknown. Why? For the women's quota is met? It is never followed up a decent job and was never even elected to public office, but was always destined to it. She has pushed through as chairman of the House of Lords, the Lisbon Treaty. Now she gets the reward. And by the way, there's still someone uglier than they represent the EU in the world?

An important reason for this was her gender, because it was across party lines demanded in the European parliament has long been considered women in the awarding of the new EU top posts.

Thus, two nobodies are at the helm of the ship Europe, in the highest office in which the EU has with the Lisbon Treaty re-awarded. They will designate their positions from 1 Begin in December 2009.

Is still mad as democracy in the EU works and the EU-citizens not allowed to say. Now they have a president and a foreign ministries speak for them and they were not asked. EU dictatorship pure.

The secret deal by the leaders is said to have hatched allegedly were based upon Rompuy and he knows none of them does not stand in your way. The EU has been awarded to a Topjob extras from the wings, which will not interfere with the big countries' commitments. But what really lies behind his choice? Or rather, who's behind it?

The war Tony Blair, who was actually intended for the post, they could not take, even for the elite who had entirely too much blood on their hands. It would have also triggered many protests in the population.

The main reason why the EU leaders had opted for Herman to Rompuy "because he was chosen by the kingmakers to do so. Henry Kissinger personally gave his blessing on Bilberberg Club meeting last week participated in a chateau outside Brussels, which has Rompuy.

This is reported by the reputable German media (laugh) of course not. I've been wondering why I came, "his Majesty," Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski on the twentieth anniversary of the Wall in Berlin. What did they do with it? Now we know it, the real reason was the EU president to be determined.

It is remarkable how the power politics in Europe is running. Not a manifesto or campaign speeches or popularity and others naively believed by the public methods get you in very high positions, but who will be chosen by the secret cabal behind closed doors and preordained. Merkel, Westerwelle and Obama are indeed typical examples. As soon as they are at Bilderberg, and already they are at the top, without performance records or experience.

The British newspaper Guardian reported last Wednesday: "Van Rompuy Kissinger met in a closed meeting of international policy makers and industrialists, whose chairman Viscount Etienne Davignon was."

We know Henry Kissinger is the gray Eminence of the global elite and chairman of the Bilderberg Group, but who's Viscount Etienne Davignon? The Guardian describes him as "discrete and powerful figure in Brussels, who was once vice president of the European Commission in 80ies."

What does all "discreet and powerful?" Draws one of the strings in the background, I'd say.

But there's more. Davignon is the honorary chairman of the Bilderberg Group and a member of the Trilateral Commission (Rockefeller, Brzezinski), "... A meeting of global Freemasons, politicians and bankers who meet to discuss world affairs in strict secrecy ... "The Guardian describes these clubs. He serves as chairman and member of countless groups in every major club which one can imagine. Can be read at Wikipedia.

Then, the Guardian reports further, "Van Rompuy attended the Bilderberg meeting in part to apply for the European job. He also called for a new system of levies to fund the EU and the recurring struggle for the EU budget . replace "

We see, therefore, Herman van Rompuy was determined by the shadow government that controls everything in the background as EU president. The Bilderbergers who have been in general the dissolution of the states in a European Union and the creation of the single currency euro has already decided in the 50s years and ordered. The governments had to implement the contract then only this command, which have managed to yes.

Let's forget all the chatter about how good the European integration and that the European nations they wanted. This belief has been implanted them in the last 50 years, with a massive propaganda by the media, political parties, associations and organization in their heads and not their actual will. The whole is willed from above, and an intermediate step in the plan for world government.

Is not it great that the 500 million EU citizens now have a president of the real from the powers have determined that the shots were. His main job is to introduce its new EU-general taxes. Exactly, the people must pay tribute to the new "king" in Brussels, or to which stand behind him.

Van Rompuy has announced already in the address to the Bilderbergers, in which he spoke of a "social program", what with a new European environmental tax and is to be funded at all financial transactions. The "super state" needs new money which will be delivered to the elite, of course, beautiful as always sold with "social" and "organic", as the sleeping sheep will fall for again and leave them voluntarily out of the bag.

People do not check, all the big decisions and the puppets in Brussels, Paris and Berlin should play their role as leaders will be taken by the members of the elite clubs and Herman van Rompuy is indeed again a 'van Bilderberg.

http://alles-schallundrauch.blogspot.com/2009/11/herman-van-wer-ach-so-van-bilderberg.html

[sparky]

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Good league playing country , she should know how to handle political bloodsport


( I'm Eastern suburbs .... go Roosters !!!!)



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[sparky]

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Seriously ,back on Tread

we saw a few months ago the turn of History
America dropping the " Missile shield " was the abandonment of the Anti Russia posture
this make NATO little else than a pool of military levies for use out of theater
or the rear supply base for the Middle East

So the U.S. turn its primary interest away from the North Atlantic an face the Pacific as its premier concern
America is bleeding from a thousand cuts , with a bad case of overextend

China is clearly now the most serious rival ,
not militarily ( yet ) but a rival for access to resources and an increasing rival for higher tech


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