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PeakOil is You

"Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 Feb 2018, 20:22:52

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Hint for the mathematically impaired. Median is LESS than the average, since the really big numbers outweigh the really small ones.


In a mean time before failure distribution, I'm betting the median can be on either side of the mean just based on the thing being quantified.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 Feb 2018, 20:25:37

Yoshua wrote:Since the energy cost to produce petroleum is rising exponentially and the net energy is falling off a cliff, a fast crash is inevitable.


That one again?

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby dirtyharry » Sun 18 Feb 2018, 07:20:58

AdamB wrote:
dirtyharry wrote:
Cog wrote:Do I live better than any other previous generation? Well yes I do. Is that crash conditions? Well you could have fooled me.


If the question is ^I^ then the answer is personal and not universal . Just because ^you^ live better does not mean ^all^ live better .


Name any government in the world that requires not only that its people do better, but commits to doing the same for everyone else as well. Just one, to see how your logical fallacy holds up in real words of real people, and how well they did.

There is no such requirement within the systems humans have built that all live better. None. There are hopes and dreams and strawmen such as you assemble to refute someone else who is being completely reasonable in their perspective. You can pretend it must be so, but any first semester stats student understands that probability density functions exist for a reason...and 10 seconds later can apply that knowledge to the human condition. And presto...we ain't all gonna live the same, let alone better.

What's up sock puppet? Did the ShortonOil persona get banned or something, or did you keep getting too many questions about being a welsher?

dirtyharry wrote:Your personal situation is unimportant .


Not to him/her, you halfwit.


As Perry Mason would say ^incompetent,irrelevant,immaterial^ . By the way I hope you know who Perry Mason was full wit.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby Cog » Sun 18 Feb 2018, 10:01:33

Wow Shorty ran away from his wager. I guess he really couldn't come up with the dough.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 18 Feb 2018, 13:13:36

AdamB wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Hint for the mathematically impaired. Median is LESS than the average, since the really big numbers outweigh the really small ones.


In a mean time before failure distribution, I'm betting the median can be on either side of the mean just based on the thing being quantified.

Fair point. I should have qualified it with in real world economic examples with lots of data points (like incomes). I was trying to make a simple point, not be rigorous, so for that, I'll plead guilty.

(See doomers, if you make a mistake and actually (gasp) admit it, it doesn't mean horrible things happen to you straight away).

I was trying to emphasize the point that claiming that using the median gives no useful information about the income level of a large group of people (or family units) is nonsense, and the median (in the real world in such examples) is NOT distorting things upward as our detractor du jour seemed to be implying with his "but there are poor people" distraction.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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