I was just looking a the weekly report and had a realization,
Crude Oil (Excluding SPR) +1.6to 521.1
Total Motor Gasoline +0.5 to 241.5
Distillate Fuel Oil -0.8 to 152.0
Other Oils +1.3 to 473.0
Crude Oil in SPR No Change at 695.1
Total US Petroleum Inventory +2.6 to 2082.7
Total inventory has been the number I generally watch to gauge whether the glut is abating or not. So long as the market has ample supply at $40/bbl or whatever the current price is the number should rise a little at a time, when the market price is higher and supply is tighter the number should start falling.
At least that is the assumption I have been making since early 2015. However it occurred to me tonight that other things can have a big impact on that number, like declining consumption due to a bad economy. Despite what people in power tell you everything is no rosy everywhere across the USA.Yes there is some job growth, but it is all on the entry level minimum wage end of the spectrum, and we are still losing highly paid positions in the oil industry with some regularity, not to mention the aging work force means retirees at their highest pay rate are exiting the work force and being not replaced, or replaced with much lower paid younger workers.
We are at about the peak of the demographic bubble, the baby boomers are starting to retire in large numbers. Only half of the population aged 50-60 years old is working full time based on federal government statistics, and that number falls to under 38 percent at age 62 and under 24 percent at age 65. With this huge bubble of retiring Baby Boomers the fuel demand should show an impact, even if its not an outright drop because many of those jobs will be filled by younger commuters.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.