Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Moderator: Pops

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby sparky » Fri 29 Jul 2016, 20:09:00

.
The price of gas is 5.67 dollar per gallon in Germany this month , it's quite low by historical standard
Germany has one of the best automotive industry.
User avatar
sparky
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3216
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 30 Jul 2016, 06:50:57

sparky wrote:.
The price of gas is 5.67 dollar per gallon in Germany this month , it's quite low by historical standard
Germany has one of the best automotive industry.


Germany has the blessing, if you want to call it that, of being geographically compact compared to say Russia, Australia, Canada or the US. Driving in Germany is a luxury, not a necessity, at least that is what I have been lead to believe by numerous persons who have visited there from the USA.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 13656
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 06:08:11

Halcon Resources, U.S. Oil Explorer, Files for Bankruptcy

The filing Wednesday in Delaware bankruptcy court listed $3.12 billion in debt and $2.85 billion in assets.

Wilson, who became a legend in the U.S. shale industry after selling Petrohawk Energy Corp. for $15.1 billion in 2011, bought up acreage in North Dakota, Texas, Mississippi and Pennsylvania, only to see several prospects fail to pan out and oil prices collapse. Halcon’s debt ballooned to $2.9 billion.
GoghGoner
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1616
Joined: Thu 10 Apr 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Stilłwater subdivision

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 06:25:11

Goner - They really aren't bankrupt in a manner most folks understand the term. It is more a technicality allowing them to restructure the ownership of the company. Can't tell for certain from the details provided but it sounds like a pretty good deal for the lenders and shareholders in that it should free up very needed capex for the new company.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9892
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 13:09:02

Rock, yeah, I know that bankruptcy isn't the end of the business. There was one oil company that has already filed bankruptcy twice in the past year and they still keep operations going. But bankruptcy does mean that somebody is going to take a haircut and that is where it is interesting -- everyone of these filings takes more liquidity away.
GoghGoner
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1616
Joined: Thu 10 Apr 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Stilłwater subdivision

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 15:24:13

yeah RM. It's a special bankruptcy where the playa's get to play over and over again. Because oil is a National Security Issue. But some might say that roads, schools, and hospital are also national security issues.

Investment money and energy gone missing down very deep/dry/tight/remote bore holes is a waste. Of money and energy.

That leaves little or no money for the real economy. So people demand less. The price of oil goes down. Less money to drill for new oil. So it goes. Around and around down the bore hole. And drain. :cry:
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25021
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 16:02:25

But it's been shown to you multiple times that people aren't demanding less. They are taking road trips. So enough is enough with your demand destruction meme.

http://newsroom.aaa.com/2016/05/aaa-38- ... y-weekend/
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
permanently banned
 
Posts: 3932
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 09:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 16:23:16

first of all Ennui, you glossed over Pete's point of how Oil and fossil fuels are subsidized just so we can somehow keep the sense of normalcy going even as the EROIE is becoming worse and worse. Thus, we have less and less for all other needs of the Economy. Second, why do you cite an obviously biased source about Americans driving and taking trips. So big deal they have managed to get away for Memorial Day weekend. How does that translate to a vibrant economy? I notice you do not post about how many Americans are the govt. dole or how many work in low paying, soul draining jobs etc. So, your insistence that all is well because of your so called "glut" is bogus. Yes, we have not hit rock bottom but slowly but surely this ship is sinking.
Last edited by onlooker on Sun 31 Jul 2016, 16:53:56, edited 1 time in total.
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6861
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 16:51:41

onlooker, most remaining cogent folks here at peak oil tend to dismiss the rest of the world in their analysis. Yes, Texas, California, Maryland and Mass. have all returned to a semblance of middle-class mediocrity. But not so much every other state. The US is still mired in poverty, hopelessness and disrepair. Just not in ennui's suburban basement kingdom. Down there ennui is strong and proud gamer. this is a game for him.

There is hardly a region or nation that has not be either been decimated or at least hobbled by $100/barrel petroleum. Not an European country (save a few, mostly debt-regimes and monetary capitals) that is not in a prolonged economic slump. Not to mention Africa, the ME, and most of Asia (other than NATO's offshore free-market slave enclaves) Why? A prolonged energy slump. The two are hand and hand.

There will always come time when every industrial economy does not get enough of its primary fuel. It will then riot and collapse.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25021
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby radon1 » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 16:59:21

onlooker wrote: so we can somehow keep the sense of normalcy going even as the EROIE is becoming worse and worse.


EROEI is not becoming worse and worse. I'll tell you a little secret - EROEI is almost constant and equals to 1. It may fluctuate a bit around 1 due to changes in industrial stocks, but it gravitates towards 1 all the time.

Therefore if a "crash" happens, it will have nothing to do with EROEI approaching 1, because EROEI is already at 1, and has been there all the time, more or less.
radon1
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1941
Joined: Thu 27 Jun 2013, 05:09:44

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 17:31:42

radon1 wrote:
onlooker wrote: so we can somehow keep the sense of normalcy going even as the EROIE is becoming worse and worse.


EROEI is not becoming worse and worse. I'll tell you a little secret - EROEI is almost constant and equals to 1. It may fluctuate a bit around 1 due to changes in industrial stocks, but it gravitates towards 1 all the time.

'fluctuates a bit around 1' In what manner? How much?

radon1 wrote:Therefore if a "crash" happens, it will have nothing to do with EROEI approaching 1, because EROEI is already at 1, and has been there all the time, more or less.

EROEI is currently 'more or less' huh? Which is it right now? More? Or less? You seem to know radon? Please share the metric by which you have arrived at more. Or less. A method? Or should I say methodology lol

I suspect that you don't even know the difference between efficiency measures of energy-storage conversion/delivery systems (such as refineries that convert crude to diesel, or transmission lines that carry electricity) and measures of primary energy production/extraction. (the gathering/mining of the coal, crude, or uranium).

You apparently are in a bubble guy. Sorry, but one needs to step outside ones industrial nest to understand how the nest materials are gathered. It requires a lot of flapping around and sweating.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25021
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby radon1 » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 18:26:51

pstarr wrote:'fluctuates a bit around 1' In what manner? How much?


Industrial oil stocks are probably days or weeks of consumption, and changes in these stock are probably percentage points of their own total volume. So the fluctuations should be percentage points of percentage points absent a major disruption.

Strictly speaking, EROEI is a function of the period of time over which it is measured, but given that the oil stream is pretty much uniform over time, fluctutions of short-term EROEIs should not be much different from longer-term EROEIs, though probably slightly more volatile.

EROEI is currently 'more or less' huh? Which is it right now? More? Or less? You seem to know radon? Please share the metric by which you have arrived at more. Or less. A method? Or should I say methodology lol


Oil produced during a period divided by oil consumed during this period. Nothing to build a website around :(

I suspect that you don't even know the difference between efficiency measures of energy-storage conversion/delivery systems (such as refineries that convert crude to diesel, or transmission lines that carry electricity) and measures of primary energy production/extraction. (the gathering/mining of the coal, crude, or uranium).
These are all irrelevant for our purposes. See "radon's paradox" I posted earlier.

You apparently are in a bubble guy. Sorry, but one needs to step outside ones industrial nest to understand how the nest materials are gathered. It requires a lot of flapping around and sweating.


We have a very old saying over here in the bubble, kind of ancient one: "dumb head does not let the feet rest".
radon1
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1941
Joined: Thu 27 Jun 2013, 05:09:44

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 18:40:40

onlooker wrote:why do you cite an obviously biased source about Americans driving and taking trips.


I've talked about the rise of Chindia too. It's not just the US.

onlooker wrote:How does that translate to a vibrant economy?


A "vibrant economy" doesn't mean everyone's going to be doing the kind of work you or I would prefer. If it were up to me, people would NOT be taking road-trips. I'm just describing things as they are.

What exactly would you want people to be doing?

onlooker wrote:I notice you do not post about how many Americans are the govt. dole or how many work in low paying, soul draining jobs etc.


How often in human history have everyone worked great white-collar jobs? Wouldn't it be a spoiled sense of entitlement to expect this, otherwise claim "doom"? Just because there's a glut doesn't mean everyone lives like kings, especially since we just pulled ourselves out of the great recession (not depression, recession).

Not only that, but I've explained how certain structural changes in work are being brought on not by peak-oil doom but by high-tech, like the robots that are doing and will do most of the actual work at the Gigafactory that just opened. The peak-oil narrative of yore never factored techno-singularity unemployment, only a reversion to a world-made-by-hand or falling all the way back to Mad Max or Cormac McCarthy. Either way you slice it, this is NOT the doom we were promised to see.

-------------

Seriously, doomers should avoid the temptation of labeling the status quo doom just because the world isn't your chosen utopia. It really co-opts the term. Everyone has their own unique ideal of how the world should be and it's never in an ideal state (which is something even Plato understood in ancient Greece). Lack of subjective perfection != doom.

I knew a long time ago that the big force driving doomerism is ideological dissatisfaction with the status quo. But since everyone's idea of perfection is different, you can't go around issuing laundry-lists of grievances about why this or that should change and expect that to convince people we're living in a dystopia. What one person thinks of as hell is heaven to someone else.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
permanently banned
 
Posts: 3932
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 09:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 19:28:53

You seem to misrepresent my and most other doomers position on doom. We are not saying doom is now or at some specific future date but that humanity has set itself up optimally for very dire outcomes. It is a process and that process flows from increasing pressures due to our actions and inaction as well as unintended and unforeseen vicissitudes that occur . I for one have never given any date for anything
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6861
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 19:57:44

radon1, you defintion of EROEI:
radon1 wrote:Oil produced during a period divided by oil consumed during this period. Nothing to build a website around :(
Lets try some metaphors, a simile of sorts.

You are a simple agrarian farmer and you grow your food for your wife and family. You exert 2,000 calories/day in the field, yet you only produce 2,000/day of calories. Who dies?

You are a rabbit. You run around munching on stuff. You expend 100/day running/munching. Yet you only get to munch 100 calories. Do you live?

You run an oil rig. Your diesel engine is powered by the crude you extract from the ground. All that drilling requires 1 barrel crude/day. You produce a 1 barrel per day. Guess what?

Have you found any sucker-investors to get your open the hump? I doubt it. How/why could industrial society ever be different on this planet earth from other energy-gathering systems? Hint: it is not, and the study of this system is called ecology. Learn it. It is based on thermodynamics. Simple really. Really.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25021
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby radon1 » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 20:06:36

pstarr wrote:radon1, you defintion of EROEI:


This is not definition, definition is classic; this is derivation.

You run an oil rig. Your diesel engine is powered by the crude you extract from the ground. All that drilling requires 1 barrel crude/day. You produce a 1 barrel per day. Guess what?


You won't be producing this oil, unless you are doing this for self-entertainment. So what? What are you trying to say?
radon1
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1941
Joined: Thu 27 Jun 2013, 05:09:44

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 20:14:29

onlooker wrote:You seem to misrepresent my and most other doomers position on doom. We are not saying doom is now or at some specific future date but that humanity has set itself up optimally for very dire outcomes. It is a process and that process flows from increasing pressures due to our actions and inaction as well as unintended and unforeseen vicissitudes that occur . I for one have never given any date for anything

Speak for yourself onlooker. I have a date. It was last week. For many in the world. And a few in the United States. Many folks who could not afford $100/barrel oil died. And many who can not afford $60 oil will also die.

When I became interested in Peak Oil in 1999 a barrel cost $23.42. I remember folks debating whether it would reach $40. And if that would doom us. Didn't doom us. But it certainly started the processes dooming much of the world.

I happen to believe that oil is the mother commodity, the only transport fuel that ever drove modern economies. (In contrast to ennui's techtopian dreams for EV's, the Musk Hyperloop, and Space Methane lol) When that transport fuel disappears for folks, regions, entire economies than the TS does HTF
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25021
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 20:20:03

pstarr wrote:When that transport fuel disappears for folks, regions, entire economies than the TS does HTF


Then we should be thankful that...















....wait for it......























We're still in a glut!
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
permanently banned
 
Posts: 3932
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 09:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 20:26:52

radon1 wrote:
You run an oil rig. Your diesel engine is powered by the crude you extract from the ground. All that drilling requires 1 barrel crude/day. You produce a 1 barrel per day. Guess what?


You won't be producing this oil, unless you are doing this for self-entertainment. So what? What are you trying to say?


You don't see how your predicament may reasonably be proposed for larger complex oil plays? Or oil regions?
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25021
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Fallout from Crude Price Crash Pt. 2

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 31 Jul 2016, 20:31:20

This is going in circles. Rockman already explained that the oil usage in extraction is far less than doomers claim it does. "cost" tends to manifest itself in other aspects of overhead besides the wellhead.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
permanently banned
 
Posts: 3932
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 09:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: tita and 19 guests