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Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 04 Mar 2017, 12:12:50

Plantagenet wrote:Hey---I used to work at a famous oil company, but now I"m just an academic geophysicist so a theoretical model is good enough for me these days.


AdamB wrote:Really? I've hired a few, maybe not as drilling engineers and whatnot, but solid engineering positions using their skills. I've even got interns on the books now

Fast tracking. You two have barely finished your own internships. Look at you! Folks must be proud lol
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 04 Mar 2017, 12:15:20

Adam - Jeff doesn't need any help: he was making a very nice profit at $30/bbl before the boom from those old fields others had given up on. Bought West Ranch and a number of other Greta Sand fields in the trend on the cheap back in the 90's. A bit of his history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffery_Hildebrand

Smart, lucky, successful, stinking rich and generous. From Dec 2015:

It's the continuation of a tradition at Hilcorp, owned by billionaire Jeffery Hildebrand. Five years ago, when Hilcorp achieved its goal of doubling its oil and gas production, Hildebrand gave every employee the choice of $35,000 cash or $50,000 towards a new car. This year, despite the downturn, Hilcorp doubled its output again, to more than 150,000 barrels per day. So Hildebrand doubled the bonus — to $100,000. With about 1,400 employees, Hildebrand’s largesse will total more than $100 million (amounts are said to be prorated depending on how much of the past five years a worker was with the company).

Yes Hildebrand, 56, has been generous with his workers, but they have helped him make an incredible amount of money — $5.9 billion by FORBES’ latest count. (But we probably ought to knock that down to $5.8 billion after these bonuses.) His fortune has about trebled since the last big bonus in 2010.
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 04 Mar 2017, 13:06:52

sparky wrote:.
Well My fault , I didn't make myself clear ,
this episode will reveal the commercial price of the tar sands , my guess between 60 ~ 70$

( why call it oil ? might as well call the floor of a garage oil concrete and with better reasons)

plantagenet , your supply/demand crossing of the curve is cute enough but the supply or even the demand don't follows continuous curves ,

a positive feedback control , when the change create more change , driving the system to its physical limits


I think there is a good chance your prediction will prove itself accurate. Two things to remember Tar Sands were already being mined and produced at a moderate rate when oil was $20/bbl at the dawn of this century. Secondly Alberta and/or Canadian government subsidized early development to try out half a dozen techniques for extracting the bitumen from the sand and either refining or diluting it enough to pump it through conventional pipeline networks. All of those early subsidies are long sunk costs that make figuring out hw to profit on current oil sands extraction a much easier path to follow. Despite dollar cost inflation efficiency improvements have also played a big part in determining what bitumen is worth extraction at $50/bbl and what is only profitable at $60+/bbl.
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 04 Mar 2017, 20:45:50

ROCKMAN wrote:Yes Hildebrand, 56, has been generous with his workers, but they have helped him make an incredible amount of money — $5.9 billion by FORBES’ latest count. (But we probably ought to knock that down to $5.8 billion after these bonuses.) His fortune has about trebled since the last big bonus in 2010.



Sounds like a generous guy. Has he ever considered cutting the price he sells his oil at to help out the consumers who were screwed into the ground during the high price years between 2010 and 2013, or does screwing over the consumers who spent all those extra untold billions that he happily took (as you have often pointed out) just make him and his employees happy at night, driving their nice new cars or spending their bonus money on just more stuff?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 05 Mar 2017, 01:08:09

Adam - "Has he ever considered cutting the price he sells his oil at to help out the consumers...". Hell no! And for the same reason consumers didn't offer to pay him more for his oil when it dropped to $12/bbl in the late 90's: it ain't personal...just business. LOL.
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 05 Mar 2017, 09:37:30

ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - "Has he ever considered cutting the price he sells his oil at to help out the consumers...". Hell no!


Yeah, I didn't think so, but it seemed reasonable to ask before joining in with your appreciation of how well oil industry folks just screw the consumer over as hard as they can, pass around the spoils amongst themselves and LOL it up afterwards.

Rockman wrote:: it ain't personal...just business. LOL.


See what I mean? The industry can't be allowing ethics or morals in there anywhere if there are sheep around, they need to be shorn.
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby Cog » Sun 05 Mar 2017, 10:09:35

I don't invest in XOM and BP for them to give away their product. I want them to charge whatever the market will bear. My dividends yo.
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 05 Mar 2017, 11:29:08

Cog wrote:I don't invest in XOM and BP for them to give away their product. I want them to charge whatever the market will bear. My dividends yo.

you certainly are a brilliant hardnosed investor guy. Perhaps you should start your own investor blog?
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 05 Mar 2017, 14:54:09

Adam - "The industry can't be allowing ethics or morals in there anywhere..." Exactly: same ethics and morals that allow consumers to pay companies less for oil/NG then it cost those companies to develop that production. Or did I misunderstand: have you sent a check to ExxonMobil to help make up for its revenue short fall this year? LOL.
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 05 Mar 2017, 16:27:15

Cog wrote:I don't invest in XOM and BP for them to give away their product. I want them to charge whatever the market will bear. My dividends yo.


Of course. There is no morality, fair play or elements of human kindness in the founding principles of economics, and this is why economics works when informing us about human behavior. And are a core reason why those who didn't include these first order principles when pretending that bell shaped curves have anything to do with oil production, got it all so badly wrong.
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 05 Mar 2017, 16:33:20

ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - "The industry can't be allowing ethics or morals in there anywhere..." Exactly: same ethics and morals that allow consumers to pay companies less for oil/NG then it cost those companies to develop that production. Or did I misunderstand: have you sent a check to ExxonMobil to help make up for its revenue short fall this year? LOL.


Of course not. I'm quite happy to follow the personal philosophy that I believe everyone should. Vote with your dollars. Nowadays, when I pay the electric bill, I pay for all the fuel the family needs to go to work, the grocery store, the movies and local sporting events, and that money goes to my local utility, and not XOM. Let everyone else fund them and their ilk. Next tax refund, I'm adding more panels to the roof so that the check I write to the local electrical utility can be even smaller over the following months.
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 05 Mar 2017, 18:46:48

Adam - "... and that money goes to my local utility, and not XOM.". Actually it's very likely some of your money is being sent by your utility to XOM et al.

Thank you. LOL.
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 05 Mar 2017, 23:57:52

ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - "... and that money goes to my local utility, and not XOM.". Actually it's very likely some of your money is being sent by your utility to XOM et al.

Thank you. LOL.


LOL indeed. I understand that there is no real way to avoid a behemoth such as XOM, they are after all one of the few oil companies out there concerned more with making money than making hole. But I can vote happily with my dollars by putting it into the folks more focused on my current needs of transport, without all that stinky, icky liquid fuel stuff that XOM does seem to like so much.

But that is just me, I think the world is demonstrating quite well why XOM will be around for quite some time yet, look at how silly your industry was able to make peak oilers look in short order, right? LOL. No objection from me on that one.
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby sparky » Mon 06 Mar 2017, 00:45:15

.
In the free market system a listed company duty is to make money legally for their share holders

morality is an abstract concept , legislation is the point .
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 06 Mar 2017, 17:18:54

sparky wrote:.
In the free market system a listed company duty is to make money legally for their share holders

morality is an abstract concept , legislation is the point .


I seem to recall more than a few doomer types, not necessarily at this website maybe, who claim that the US really isn't a free market system, it just looks that way so the suckers won't feel so bad when they lose their money in the market place.

The good news to this idea of no morality or ethics in the market is that we can then rely on economists to tell us about future oil production rates than peak oilers.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby sparky » Mon 06 Mar 2017, 17:40:46

.
You misconstrue my post ,
the people vote their representatives who have legislative and executive power
companies obey those laws or else .
if the people do not exercise their privilege , they have only themselves to complain to
private companies do not have to concern themselves with morality ,only with ethics .
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby Revi » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 14:38:18

Does this affect Exxon's stock price? They are worth 1.7 billion less now, with oil at $50 a barrel.
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 17:17:48

Revi - What XOM is "worth" is a somewhat difficult question to answer. Do you mean the SEC book value? What it would take to buy 100% of its stock? What the current value of its stock since that announcement was made?

The stock value is the easiest to answer since it posted constantly throughout the trading day. After the announcement was made around 23 Feb the stock closed at $81.78/share. On 17 Feb it was 81.76/share. On 22 Feb it closed at $80.93; on 24 Feb $81.08; on 2 March at $83.30.

So about 10 days after announcing its booked oil reserves declined 3.3 billion bbls ExxonMobil stock closed about 3% HIGHER. OTOH as I type XOM stock is trading for the same price it was on 23 Feb when the reserve decline info became public knowledge. Bottom line: apparently loosing billions of bbls of booked oil reserves hasn't changed much the view of folks trading its stock.
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby Cog » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 17:31:36

The current market cap or the value of XOM stock is 332.53Billion
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Re: Exxon cuts its oil reserves by 3.3 billion barrels

Unread postby JimBof » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 17:57:39

Cog wrote:The current market cap or the value of XOM stock is 332.53Billion


Oh goody, I will buy it with my next tax return.
Oops I am retired now, I do not get a tax return.
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