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Export Land Model in Action

Discuss specific research and forecasts.

Moderator: Pops

Re: Export Land Model in Action

Unread postby Twilight » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 02:24:26

This is a single example, one of many that make up a trend already observed in EIA data. A single example does not of course make a trend, but many similar examples create one. This is one concrete example of such a component, which will make a contribution for a time even if not in perpetuity. And this is my only goal in this thread, not to preach doom, but to say in supplement of all of the people talking about Export Land in general terms - here is a name. It is a contribution, not a slam dunk. It is a supplement to the debate in something other than general terms. Anything else is what people want my position to be, not what it is, and I have no further wish to argue semantics.
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Re: Export Land Model in Action

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 03:26:57

I think all the similar examples would have to be included in the trend, to make it the trend, as per EIA data. ;) But, like I said before, it isn't proof of the demand side of Export Land, that would be trends as per the EIA data over a sufficient time period.
Twilight wrote:It is proof of the demand side of Export Land.


That being said, wth is up with posting in another thread about this, but not wanting to continue to debate it? Finicky much? Were you a cat in another life? :-D
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Export Land Model in Action

Unread postby Twilight » Tue 05 Aug 2008, 17:27:17

Reuters: UPDATE 1-Iran halts fuel oil exports, stockpiles for winter

Relevant for the following details:

Reuters wrote: SINGAPORE, July 31 (Reuters) - Iran, a regular exporter of fuel oil to Asia, will halt shipments of the heavy fuel from August as it builds domestic stocks ahead of winter, and due to a heavy fourth-quarter maintenance season, industry sources said on Thursday.

Iran has been shipping out about 1.2 million tonnes of the residual fuel monthly since April. Rising domestic consumption and a lack of gas alternatives had also forced it to reduce exports over the past two winters.

"This is true, we will be concentrating on building up stocks for use at our power stations," a source familiar with the fuel oil export programme said.

Iran's decision came on the heels of Saudi Arabia's move to not resume spot fuel oil exports after its peak summer demand season, due to persistently strong requirements from domestic power plants and new secondary refining units.

Robust economic growth in Middle East oil-producing nations has spurred industrial demand for utility fuels, as power usage across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) grows at an annual rate of around 8 percent.

Gas projects have also failed to keep pace with demand for power generation. Apart from Qatar, all Gulf states are short of gas.


EDIT: This presentation may be of interest. Pages 13 and 14 have particular bearing.
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