Why Natural Gas isn’t Likely to be the World’s Energy SaviorBackup for Renewables
One area where natural gas excels is as a back up for intermittent renewable energy, since it can ramp up and down quickly. So this is one area where a person might expect growth.
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A grid that has ample off-peak generation will find addtional coal or nuclear to have zero value during those hours. At the same time it can find solar to be very valuable as it provides peak hour power, off-setting expensive peaking generation. Additonally solar production highly coorrelates to increased demand from air conditioning.
A few years back it was found that the US grids could convert to 25% (eastern grid) to 35% (western grid) wind and solar without adding any fill-in generation or storage.
Since that study was completed we have cut our coal generation from 49% (2006) to under 40% (36% for first half of 2012). We have replaced a good piece of that 13% total with dispatchable natural gas. Our generation from NG has risen from 20.1% (2006) to 31% (first half 2012).
That means that we could boost the 25%- 35% by at least another 10%, using the extra NG geneation only when the Sun was not shining and the wind not blowing.
All of the US grids could be more than 1/3rd wind and solar without requiring us to build a single gas plant.
As we move from a fossil fuel grid to a renewable energy grid we will call on fossil fuels at time. For example, Southern Australia has closed some of its coal plants but put one in mothballs for use during times of the year when demand is the highest. Gas plants will likely see some service for decades, first as everyday fill-in and later as 'last player' reserve.
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