[Graeme]

Energy Crunch: The writing’s on the wall

Three things you shouldn't miss this week

1) Chart: Mapping the US carbon cap. Necessary emission reductions for existing power plants broken down by state:

2) Article: Solar to match coal in China by 2016, threatening fossil dominance - Wuxi Suntech Power expects the cost of electricity from solar modules match to coal-powered stations in China as soon as 2016.

3) Commentary: The Global Energy Market’s Moment of Truth - this is not a temporary market blip but a fundamental shift.

Is the writing finally on the wall for fossil fuels? In the last fortnight we’ve seen new rules on coal emissions in the US, the prospect of a cap on coal consumption in China, and a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighting the risks to fossil fuel investment.

Though the focus of the IEA report was energy investment, what came across was the spectre of peak oil. The agency sees the brief US shale boom “running out of steam” in the 2020s, forcing the world back into the arms of the Middle East where there is a risk that “investment fails to pick up in time to avert a shortfall in supply”. The numbers show the oil and gas industry sprinting to stand still: “More than 80% of the cumulative $17.5 trillion in upstream oil and gas spending is required to compensate for decline at existing oil and gas fields.”

resilience

[americandream]

When are you people going to learn?...and understand the dynamics of capital?

[ROCKMAN]

"...the cost of electricity from solar modules match to coal-powered stations in China as soon as 2016." Perhaps but that won't change the fact that the vast majority of Chinese electrical production will come from fossil fuels for decades. And "...the prospect of a cap on coal consumption in China". That's nice: so China continues to be the largest coal consumer on the planet. What a relief. LOL.

[KaiserJeep]

This really is NOT news. If you read the article, it is written by an Englishman who has never been to China, repeating "facts" in a Web press release from a Chinese solar manufacturing company. Those "facts" are all wrong:

1) China's coal power is not 69% and falling, it is 83% and growing, while lip service is being paid to cleaning up the air.

2) Comparing coal powered steam turbines, which produce power 24X7 with an average of less than 3 days of downtime per year, with solar PV which has about 15% actual power production versus rated capacity, is simply foolish.

3. Things are getting worse a lot faster than they are getting better.

[ROCKMAN]

KJ - And I continue to not understand how the pro-environment/anti-oil crowd doesn't make greater efforts to debunk such misrepresentations. You know what I do for a living but I think I tend to highlight such blunders more often then our resident Greenies. I appreciate their earnest desire to see a better future but accepting false prophets won't make that happen.

[Synapsid]

KJ, ROCKMAN,

Dum dee dum...India...dum dee dum...1.2 billion people and growing...dum dee dum...maybe two thirds of homes lack access to electricity but government says they're going to have it...coal a big (and generally
preferred in projections for the future) energy source in India and SE Asia...India plus SE Asia = more people than China right now, and populations increasing...coal use to increase throughout the region...

Apologies for the subtlety. I do agree with you guys.

[ROCKMAN]

Syn - Sadly, the dynamics of population growth, upward mobility of the lower half of the pyramid and limited choices regarding energy options does seem inevitable despite all the righteous talk otherwise?

[Synapsid]

ROCKMAN,

Yup, my vote is for "inevitable" all right, but the attention seems to be mostly on China and that isn't where I expect most of the problem to be.

[ralfy]

Also, fossil fuels are used for various components, infrastructure, etc., that are part of solar.