[ralfy]

Counterpoint: Higher food and oil prices favor recreational activities which do not involve travel, aka internet surfing. cable/dsl is also cheaper than the full blown subscription TV packages.

Higher oil prices affect not only food but even other necessities, such as health care, which in turn not only affects travel but also cheaper forms of recreation. Other factors such as a credit crunch and unemployment do not help. This is probably why we've also been seeing major declines in exports (esp. for electronics) in Asia for the past eight months, generally global world trade volume dropping, and demand destruction for certain commodities in OECD countries.

And when the situation is prolonged....

[AgentR11]

Health care is a luxury, not a necessity.
Sorry, true facts are sometimes unpleasant.

People without health coverage, for whatever reason, will simply be going without, funny thing though, they'll find money for cheap cell and internet service.

[Revi]

Peak oil was interesting to a few of us, but never really caught on with the mainstream of society. It's too rational. Most people want to blame their circumstances on politics or find some scapegoat. They can't handle the truth.

[ralfy]

Health care is a luxury, not a necessity.
Sorry, true facts are sometimes unpleasant.

People without health coverage, for whatever reason, will simply be going without, funny thing though, they'll find money for cheap cell and internet service.

Health care is a necessity, as seen in most parts of the world. Sorry, facts are sometimes unpleasant.

And the other points I raised earlier are also taking place. You can dream all you want, but those points won't go away.

[no_wuckin_ferries_mate]

Once there was a German peakoil forum: http://peak-oil-forum.de

It is still there, however, almost dead and down to 1 or 2 posts per day. People have just disappeared.

I guess it will be the same here.

[AgentR11]

You can dream all you want, but those points won't go away.

Why would I think they go away? I agree with those other points.
Disagree with you on health care though. People can generally live well past reproductive requirement without ever having contact with a doctor. That defines it as not being a necessity. We might think of it as a human right, or an ethical mandate, but it is not a physically required service.

[Pops]

Peak oil was interesting to a few of us, but never really caught on with the mainstream of society. It's too rational. Most people want to blame their circumstances on politics or find some scapegoat. They can't handle the truth.

Yeah, I imagine there could have been a few people speculating as to the Titanic's unsinkability as they arranged their deck chairs. The discussion didn't catch on with the mainstream 'till later.

LOL

Finite resources deplete whether or not anyone speculates on the effects beforehand.

[eXpat]

Once there was a German peakoil forum: http://peak-oil-forum.de It is still there, however, almost dead and down to 1 or 2 posts per day. People have just disappeared. I guess it will be the same here.

We are not that far away, here may be a two digits number posts per day.

[dolanbaker]

We are not that far away, here may be a two digits number posts per day.

At the end of the day, there's only so much that can be said about things like the "Export land model" etc. It's the indirect affects that people are most likely to talk about, like the economy declining and the like.

[vtsnowedin]

Health care is a necessity, as seen in most parts of the world. Sorry, facts are sometimes unpleasant. And the other points I raised earlier are also taking place. You can dream all you want, but those points won't go away.

No, health care is not a necessity. The majority opinion on something doesn't make it so. Consider the fourteenth century majority opinion on the flat earth. If the world human population was denied all health care the majority would still live long enough to mature and have children that grow to adulthood. From the planets other biota's point of view this might be a good thing as total numbers would be reduced relieving the pressure on the planets resources.
Food , water and shelter from the elements are necessities for human survival, everything else is just a luxury, nice to have but certainly not necessary.

[no_wuckin_ferries_mate]

Once there was a German peakoil forum: http://peak-oil-forum.de It is still there, however, almost dead and down to 1 or 2 posts per day. People have just disappeared. I guess it will be the same here.

We are not that far away, here may be a two digits number posts per day.

Expat, bist du vielleicht der Expat aus dem deutschen PO-Forum? Ich schrieb dort unter der deutschen Version des Namens des englischen Thronfolgers.

Wie läufts den in SE Asia. Ich dachte, du wolltest mal auf ein Bier in Sydney vorbeikommen. Auf Grund deiner damaligen Schilderungen des Lebens in SE Asia habe ich mir das bei diversen Zwischenlandungen mal angeguckt und finde es inzwischen sehr interessant.

HIer sind auch noch zweie aus dem ausgestorbenen deutschen PO-Forum: MBS und Cepha.

Ciao K.
z Z in der Höhle des Löwen = Europa

[eXpat]

Expat, bist du vielleicht der Expat aus dem deutschen PO-Forum? Ich schrieb dort unter der deutschen Version des Namens des englischen Thronfolgers. Wie läufts den in SE Asia. Ich dachte, du wolltest mal auf ein Bier in Sydney vorbeikommen.

Auf Grund deiner damaligen Schilderungen des Lebens in SE Asia habe ich mir das bei diversen Zwischenlandungen mal angeguckt und finde es inzwischen sehr interessant. HIer sind auch noch zweie aus dem ausgestorbenen deutschen PO-Forum: MBS und Cepha.
Ciao
K.

Hi, sorry, it wasn´t me, there must be a lot of fellows expats in Germany that are interested on PO though, been a couple of times in Germany, but never have any activity in any forum.

Hallo, sorry, ich war es nicht, es muss eine Menge Leute Expats in Deutschland, die auf PO obwohl sein Interesse haben, waren ein paar Mal in Deutschland, aber nie irgendwelche Aktivität in jedem Forum. Cheerio

[ralfy]

Why would I think they go away? I agree with those other points.
Disagree with you on health care though. People can generally live well past reproductive requirement without ever having contact with a doctor. That defines it as not being a necessity. We might think of it as a human right, or an ethical mandate, but it is not a physically required service.

If you agree with my other points, then you'll realize that they very much put into question your argument that people will pay for luxuries than for health care.

And what you are now giving is a second point. The problem with that is that the two main reasons why infant mortality rates have dropped significantly worldwide are food production and health care, which includes sanitation and even vaccination.

And my response to your second point makes your last one--that health care is not a requirement--utter nonsense.

[drgoodword]

Then the domain name will be snapped up and peakoil.com will be a porn site (that happened to a local non-profit).

I've followed the domain name secondary market (where registered domain names are "re-sold") for over ten years. The domain name "peakoil.com", with no site or content, is easily worth five figures currently. When the peak oil SHTF, that price will go up to six figures, and perhaps even top over into the million dollar range. And I guarantee you, the person who would own it in such a case would not put porn up (which has become a very low profit margin online play in recent years), but would put up the most profitable associated ad links, like investing links.

Of course, the current and long-time registrant of "peakoil.com" would never let this domain expire, but I find its current expiration date--Oct 2012--a little cavalier. I'm sure many of us would be happy to pitch in to raise the fifty bucks necessary to secure this penultimate category domain name for another five years and buy the site a little "domain insurance."

[dorlomin]

Health of the website and 'its not as good as it used to be' is a perenial discussion on all websites. But I think that the economic crisis took a lot of peoples attentions away from the underlying structural issues in our societies and economies I also think that since Libyia energy is coming much more back into focus as one of the underlying concerns.

Today we are in a kind of holding pattern, discussing the minutia of how the economy is unfolding and picking the bones out of the post Lehman world.

But it was here I first seen those wacky predictions that the US housing market would signal a massive financial collapse. Aint looking so wacky in the rear view mirror.
It is also here where I first heard of fracking for tight gas.
It was here where I first heard of the export land model.
And many other issues like watching the problems in the downstream parts of the industry like the refinaries struggling.
Personally I believe this website is sucha unique angle of the current state of the world that most of the current user base will remain and as energy comes back into focus it will begin picking up newer people again.

Those people will also be far more psychologically able to absorb the idea of sudden and even catastrophic changes than they were 6 years ago. People have seen that the post 70s fluffy world of constant growth and wealth is not some 'end of history' but just a lull before the storm.

[AgentR11]

If you agree with my other points, then you'll realize that they very much put into question your argument that people will pay for luxuries than for health care.

If I didn't see it every freaking day, I might agree with this assertion of yours, but people on the margins very much will pay for cell phones, decorative tire rims, cheap internet, or whatever, long before they'll pay $30 for cheap blood pressure meds.

Its not rational, but it is how people behave. As the economy tightens further, they will find a way to pay for (or borrow) their net; but they won't pay a dime for healthcare.

infant mortality rates have dropped

That is a good thing.
It is not a necessary thing.

[ralfy]

If I didn't see it every freaking day, I might agree with this assertion of yours, but people on the margins very much will pay for cell phones, decorative tire rims, cheap internet, or whatever, long before they'll pay $30 for cheap blood pressure meds.

Because what you see "every freaking day" is the States. Most of the world works very differently, especially given 60 pct of the world's population earning only around two dollars daily.

It's not rational, but it is how people behave. As the economy tightens further, they will find a way to pay for (or borrow) their net; but they won't pay a dime for healthcare.

Of course. They expect the government to pay. But "as the economy tightens further...."

That is a good thing. It is not a necessary thing.

No, it's a necessary thing, together with everything else you take for granted.

[Cloud9]

At some point, people will realize that there is not enough. Then the question boils down to who eats and who starves. At that point it is us vs. them.

[vision-master]

Then the question boils down to who eats and who starves. At that point it is us vs. them.

Maybe your going to be one of 'them'?

[AgentR11]

No, it's a necessary thing, together with everything else you take for granted.

Nope, not necessary. And you've given no proof of necessity.

And, I don't take any of this stuff for granted, it is a spectacular luxury, available to me and mine through shear luck of being born at the right time, in the right country, with the right education and resources. The degree of "fortunate" is frankly mind-boggling. What hurts my head is that many of those living in the developed world can't manage to see what an extreme privilege they have in hand, simply because of where and when they were born.