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Employment Report: IT SUCKS

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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 07 Feb 2011, 21:09:33

Full employment damages economies.
Fudged numbers make the news look better.
Business loves an unemployment rate near 10%.
Government wants 5 to 6%. This is seen as an ideal balance point where employers can find the people they really need, already skilled, whilst not being an all consuming burden on the budget.
The USG must be seriously nervous in reality; but they must keep up the spin.
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 07 Feb 2011, 22:30:41

10 Reasons Why The Latest Unemployment Numbers Suck

#1 According to CNBC, economists were expecting the U.S. economy to add 145,000 jobs during January. Obviously the 36,000 figure was a huge disappointment.

#2 Approximately 150,000 jobs need to be added to the economy each month just to keep up with population growth.

#3 The government jobs report also indicated that 504,000 Americans "dropped out of the labor force" in January. That may make the unemployment numbers look better, but the truth is that the vast majority of those 500,000 Americans still need incomes and still need jobs.

#4 According to the latest numbers from Gallup, the unemployment rate actually increased to 9.8% at the end of January.

#5 Gallup's measure of "underemployment" (those that are unemployed plus those that are working part-time but want full-time employment) was sitting at 18.9% at the end of January.

#6 As I reported yesterday, there are approximately 28 million Americans that would like full-time jobs but that don't have full-time jobs.

#7 According to Zero Hedge, the number of Americans that are "not in the labor force" but that would like a job right now has hit an all-time record high. If you add all of those people into the official unemployment figure it would jump to 12.8%.

#8 According to Calculated Risk, this is the deepest and most brutal employment downturn that the United States has experienced since World War II. The current employment downturn started 37 months ago and there doesn't seem to be any indication that we will return to pre-recession levels any time soon.

#9 The U.S. Labor Department has also announced that job growth during 2010 was much weaker than they had previously reported. The numbers for 8 months were revised down, and the numbers for 4 months were revised up. After all of the revisions are accounted for, it turns out that a total of 215,000 fewer jobs were created during 2010 than originally calculated.

#10 According to one brand new survey, 4 out of every 10 Americans are struggling "a lot" to pay the bills right now.

The situation is not pretty out there. The U.S. needs tens of millions more jobs than we have right now.


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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby Xenophobe » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 00:18:49



Good thing the economy is recovering then. Unfortunate about unemployment, but the 90%+ employed are starting to feel secure in their jobs, spend a little coin.

Factories being efficient is a good thing.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41415001/ns ... d_economy/

Consumers borrowing more as they feel confident.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41415001/ns ... d_economy/

Layoffs becoming more rare, that 90%+ is feeling more secure for a reason.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=12855337

Don't be so gloomy Daniel, as easily as the world breezed through peak oil, some moderate unemployment level isn't that big of a deal. Its happened before, it'll happen again, this is the way business cycles work.
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 00:30:18

Xenophobe wrote:As easily as the world breezed through peak oil, some moderate unemployment level isn't that big of a deal. Its happened before, it'll happen again, this is the way business cycles work.


Oh really? "No big deal"?

Image

Xenophobe wrote:Its happened before, it'll happen again, this is the way business cycles work.


Xeno, this hasn't happened before. We now confront a fundamental structural unemployment problem. This is a "big deal" for most middle class Americans.
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby Xenophobe » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 01:27:08

Daniel_Plainview wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:As easily as the world breezed through peak oil, some moderate unemployment level isn't that big of a deal. Its happened before, it'll happen again, this is the way business cycles work.


Oh really? "No big deal"?

Image


I didn't say it was Utopia...unemployment sucks. But when you are recovering from a bubble economy as large as the one we had, and the massive redirect of human resources into ridiculous occupations like bankster, real estate agent and mortgage broker vulture? Yeah.....it sucks for those who thought such ridiculousness could continue forever, but sometimes, thems the breaks.


Daniel_Plainview wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:Its happened before, it'll happen again, this is the way business cycles work.


Xeno, this hasn't happened before. We now confront a fundamental structural unemployment problem. This is a "big deal" for most middle class Americans.


So....if the long term totality of the 2008 recession consists of 9% unemployment and a now growing economy, I say yeah, we wait it out, and the real estate agents and banksters will have to find work which pays something more commiserate with their skills.

Certainly that won't be worth as much as it was within the bubble and guess what? Thats okay...because those people should never have gone into that line of work in the first place. Now it's time to retrain and get a job worthy of whatever skills they have not related to people treating their homes as an ATM.
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 01:49:23

Xenophobe wrote:Now it's time to retrain and get a job worthy of whatever skills they have not related to people treating their homes as an ATM.


You don't get it.

You can retrain every single unemployed person but it won't fix the problem --- the economy isn't creating enough jobs to absorb the millions of unemployed people. Its not even creating enough jobs to keep up with the natural increase in population.
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby Xenophobe » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 09:35:32

Plantagenet wrote:
You don't get it.

You can retrain every single unemployed person but it won't fix the problem --- the economy isn't creating enough jobs to absorb the millions of unemployed people yet.


Of course I get it. I corrected your statement to show it. Business cycles are business cycles. The 80's sucked too, auto manufacturers laying everyone off, oil and gas industries shedding people everywhere, I already have said, unemployment sucks. It will take awhile for the 9% number to come down, even Bernanke knows it and says it in public.

Fortunately, the 91% is feeling a bit more secure and are starting to spend a few bucks. This is a good thing.

Plantagenet wrote: Its not even creating enough jobs to keep up with the natural increase in population.


I understand that completely. Fortunately, it will most likely improve in the foreseeable future.
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby Fishman » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 09:59:51

"it will most likely improve in the foreseeable future"

This statement has been the present administration's catch phrase. The most common response in his controlled media "unexpected"

This last jobs anouncement was an appaulling disaster. Only producing about a quarter on the jobs needed to even stay stable.
Obama, the FUBAR presidency gets scraped off the boot
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby dsula » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 13:03:46

Xenophobe wrote:I understand that completely. Fortunately, it will most likely improve in the foreseeable future.

Based on? Past recessions you lived through? Don't we all know that predicting tomorrow based on yesterday might not always be correct?
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby peripato » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 20:01:41

Plantagenet wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:Now it's time to retrain and get a job worthy of whatever skills they have not related to people treating their homes as an ATM.


You don't get it.

You can retrain every single unemployed person but it won't fix the problem --- the economy isn't creating enough jobs to absorb the millions of unemployed people. Its not even creating enough jobs to keep up with the natural increase in population.

There is no incentive anyway to decrease unemployment, because then the Fed would have to;

1) End the stimulus, which would put an end to the phony recovery
2) Raise interest rates, which would also put an end to the phony recovery

Is it any wonder then that the stock market is climbing and Fortune 500 companies aren't hiring, despite posting record profits, the latter of which is largely a consequence of the devaluation of the US dollar?
Last edited by peripato on Tue 08 Feb 2011, 20:18:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 20:10:38

peripato wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:Now it's time to retrain and get a job worthy of whatever skills they have not related to people treating their homes as an ATM.


You don't get it.

You can retrain every single unemployed person but it won't fix the problem --- the economy isn't creating enough jobs to absorb the millions of unemployed people. Its not even creating enough jobs to keep up with the natural increase in population.

There is no incentive anyway to decrease employment, because then the Fed would have to;

1) End the stimulus, which would put an end to the phony recovery
2) Raise interest rates, which would also put an end to the phony recovery

Is it any wonder then that the stock market is climbing and Fortune 500 companies aren't hiring, despite posting record profits, the latter of which is largely a consequence of the devaluation of the US dollar?


Do you mean "decrease unemployment"?
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby Xenophobe » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 20:16:49

dsula wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:I understand that completely. Fortunately, it will most likely improve in the foreseeable future.

Based on? Past recessions you lived through? Don't we all know that predicting tomorrow based on yesterday might not always be correct?


Completely true. But this works both ways...you don't get to manufacture wild scenario's from information which shows slow economic growth, lingering unemployment, reasonable stock market, low inflation, etc etc. Fine...we have lingering unemployment....unemployment sucks....but even in that environment I've got jobs at the shop which I can't fill. Why? Because I don't hire construction guys, real estate agents or mortgage brokers.
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby peripato » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 20:17:52

Daniel_Plainview wrote:
peripato wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:Now it's time to retrain and get a job worthy of whatever skills they have not related to people treating their homes as an ATM.


You don't get it.

You can retrain every single unemployed person but it won't fix the problem --- the economy isn't creating enough jobs to absorb the millions of unemployed people. Its not even creating enough jobs to keep up with the natural increase in population.

There is no incentive anyway to decrease employment, because then the Fed would have to;

1) End the stimulus, which would put an end to the phony recovery
2) Raise interest rates, which would also put an end to the phony recovery

Is it any wonder then that the stock market is climbing and Fortune 500 companies aren't hiring, despite posting record profits, the latter of which is largely a consequence of the devaluation of the US dollar?


Do you mean "decrease unemployment"?

Yes, that was a typo.
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 20:46:12

peripato wrote:There is no incentive anyway to decrease unemployment, because then the Fed would have to;

1) End the stimulus, which would put an end to the phony recovery
2) Raise interest rates, which would also put an end to the phony recovery

Is it any wonder then that the stock market is climbing and Fortune 500 companies aren't hiring, despite posting record profits, the latter of which is largely a consequence of the devaluation of the US dollar?


That's an interesting perspective. If the Fed's ultimate concern is to keep interest rates at zero, or as low as possible, then, perversely, the Fed would want unemployment to stay relatively high.
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby peripato » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 21:13:36

Daniel_Plainview wrote:
peripato wrote:There is no incentive anyway to decrease unemployment, because then the Fed would have to;

1) End the stimulus, which would put an end to the phony recovery
2) Raise interest rates, which would also put an end to the phony recovery

Is it any wonder then that the stock market is climbing and Fortune 500 companies aren't hiring, despite posting record profits, the latter of which is largely a consequence of the devaluation of the US dollar?


That's an interesting perspective. If the Fed's ultimate concern is to keep interest rates at zero, or as low as possible, then, perversely, the Fed would want unemployment to stay relatively high.

Bernanke says that the Fed's main fight is against unemployment. However, as long as this stays high the Fed can keep printing money and justify low interest rates. Wall St. dutifully has taken note and is on a tear. Hello "wealth factor".
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby peripato » Tue 08 Feb 2011, 22:07:57

Daniel,

It's all a big con job, loose monetary policy is causing the price of the things that matter most to people to rise and this is taken as a sign that the economy is recovering, because hey, sales receipts are up, even though volume of sales isn't.

Another part of the scam is pimping the stock market in an effort to puff up the confidence of consumers, hoping (praying?) that they will take inflation as economic strength and go out and smell the "WEALTH FACTOR!"

How screwed are we if that's the best the Fed can do?
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 04 Mar 2011, 10:30:49

OilFinder2 wrote:This will be revised upward
One set of figures not subject to revision is the Treasury Department’s data on receipts from income taxes. And those numbers are giving a more positive signal, said Carl Riccadonna ...

Told ya!
January Employment Report: Wasn't so bad after all
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised from +121,000
to +152,000, and the change for January was revised from +36,000 to +63,000.

And still one more revision to go next month.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Fri 04 Mar 2011, 21:05:50

OilFinder2 wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:This will be revised upward
One set of figures not subject to revision is the Treasury Department’s data on receipts from income taxes. And those numbers are giving a more positive signal, said Carl Riccadonna ...

Told ya!
January Employment Report: Wasn't so bad after all
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised from +121,000
to +152,000, and the change for January was revised from +36,000 to +63,000.

And still one more revision to go next month.


Numerous indicia suggest that the US employment situation is more grave than it's ever been:

1. Employment as a percent of US population is at or near record lows;
2. Civilians not In the labor force has reached an all-time record;
3. Most new jobs are part-time or temp;
4. Each new part-time, temp job has cost the govt over $1M;
5. Labor force participation rate remains at 25 year low of 64.2%

ZH: About That "Jobs Improvement" Under President Obama ... We have heard much from the propaganda machine just how much better the jobs situation has gotten under president Obama three years into his term. We would like to interject with two very simple charts...

Image

Image


And there's more ... Civilians Not In Labor Force Hits All Time Record

Image

And there's more: Charting America's Transformation To A Part-Time Worker Society, Following 6 Straight Months Of Full Time Job Declines
Image

"America is slowly (but surely) transforming from a full-time to part-time employed society. ... Since the depression started in December 2007, America has lost 10.5 million full time jobs, offset by a 2.8 million increase in part time jobs." ZH

And there's more ... How The Fed Spent $2 Trillion And In Exchange We Got 650,000 Temp, Leisure And Retail "Jobs"

And there's more ... Labor Force Participation Rate Remains At 25 Year Low 64.2%

Image

Wonder why the unemployment rate is at an artificially low 8.9%? Three simple words: Labor Force Participation. At 64.2%, it was unchanged from last month, and continues to be at a 25 year low. Should the LFP return to its 25 trendline average of 66.1%, the unemployment rate would be 11.6%. And indicatively, the Birth/Death adjustment was +112,000.


So, when we normalize the unemployment rate for labor force participation, the unemployment rate would be 11.6%. Gallup arrived at a more optimistic finding, concluding that unemployment hit 10.3% in February -- up from 9.8% at the end of January." Moreover, "underemployment, a measure that combines part-time workers wanting full-time work with those who are unemployed, surged in February to 19.9%. This resulted from the combination of a sharp 0.5-point increase since the end of January in the percentage unemployed and a 0.5-point increase in the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work. Underemployment is now higher than it was at this point a year ago (19.7%)."

And there's more ... Everything Is Now Correlated Exclusively To The Fed's Balance Sheet: "every single asset class correlates 1:1 with the Fed's balance sheet. If the Fed is really planning on ending QE2 on June 30, the market collapse will be epic. And, yes, this should not come as a surprise to anyone."

Image

In a word, the US economy is now a complete house-of-cards sustained by the Federal Reserve. The Fed has no choice but to continue with its money printing into perpetuity. QE3 followed by QE4 followed by QE5 .... One wrong sneeze, and this abysmal failure will topple.

Image

And this laughable economy all happened before oil reached $105/bbl. Watch out below.

Even with the deeply fudged govt data, the US employment situation is one big, smelly turd.
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 04 Mar 2011, 21:48:33

I do believe DP is upset because things aren't going as he expected.

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Employment Report: IT SUCKS

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Fri 04 Mar 2011, 22:04:32

OilFinder2 wrote:I do believe DP is upset because things aren't going as he expected.


Huh? Are you that clueless? Perhaps your buddy Xenophobe should jump in and give you a clue ....
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