Xenophobe wrote:For example, did you know that Matt Savinar doesn't even use the phrase "demand destruction" in his 2004 classic, "The Oil Age Is Over"?
In retrospect, one of the great lapses of people like Matt Savinar and Matt Simmons is their failure to adequately account for "demand destruction."
It would be just as easy to say, "one of the great lapses....is their failure to predict the future any better than anyone else." Makes just as much sense.
Colin Campbell claimed it would lead to a PERMANENT (his word, not mine) doubling and tripling of prices. We haven't even managed to sustain the real crude price in 1864, undoubtedly caused by the Reb's and their resource war against the Burning Springs oilfield in West Virginia.
Daniel Plainview wrote:The concept of "peak oil" is much more than a mere geological concept; instead, PO embodies and comprises human behavior, psychology, micro economics, macro economics, finance, politics, law, geology, physics, chemistry, biology, sociology, environmental sciences, public policy, and even religion/philosophy.
You just described most of the reasons for why EVERYTHING on the planet happens. Little bit wide of a net to be explanatory in nature, don't you think? Certainly I don't recall Hubbert explaining in any detail how sociology would cause more or less oilfields to be found, or even account for the conventional/unconventional bookkeeping trick invented by others to conceal how poorly the idea worked in the first place.
Daniel Plainview wrote: To pretend that there is one monolithic rubric that espouses a majority view of "peak oil" is to do a disservice to the interdisciplinary nature of the concept of PO.
I believe that this "interdisciplinary nature" of PO is one of those revisionist concepts as well. For example, are you aware of a single reference or claim, created prior to the most recent peak in 2005, which argues that peak oil can be effected, either negatively or positively, by the application of the science of the sociology? I would argue that most debates against peak oil argue that sociology doesn't matter in the least, that people are people, won't change, and will all die because of it.