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Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 11:08:39

Why bother with wood anymore?

Recycled plastic:

http://inhabitat.com/lego-like-building ... own-homes/
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 16 Jan 2017, 18:24:39

https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/01/12/wor ... man-rights
A bit perplexed by where to put this story but thought I would put it here as it is both a good harbinger and bad harbinger of things to come. Basically it is about populist movements both in Europe and US gaining power and momentum and how according to this article it was paving the way for autocratic rule as in Fascist or Communist. Well first off I thought that populist movements were all about the will of the people and Democracy. And that this is a counter to the New World Order trajectory of total global autocratic rule and one world government.
Fact it I interpret this more as a sign of populations in given countries deciding more and more to close their borders, become more nationalistic and basically a stand by your group, mistrustful of others mentality in these troubling times. People seem very mistrustful now also of large multinational Institutions like the EU, UN, NATO, even Multinational Corporations. It is really a reflexive move of people choosing solidarity with one's one group in the face of an uncertain future. Now why do I see this in fact as a sign of the collapse of society is because it shows that both economically and socially the era of Globalism has come to an end and with that mutual cooperation and trade. Now that in turn will be a prelude to an even more aggressive posturing and competition between countries. Yet, this is all the product of a world experiencing the consequences to overshoot and finding economic vitality increasingly difficult and so finding the prospect of refugees and migrants unacceptable and economically ceasing to be able to or willing to support a globalized world.
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 16 Jan 2017, 20:43:25

Our global economy and food distribution systems rely upon trust between the globalist. When that breKs down, if it does, then we have the potential for some pretty nasty times and the start of massive die off.

Nationalism is challanging globalism. So I think you are spot on.
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 16 Jan 2017, 21:18:11

Newfie wrote:Our global economy and food distribution systems rely upon trust between the globalist. When that breKs down, if it does, then we have the potential for some pretty nasty times and the start of massive die off.

Nationalism is challanging globalism. So I think you are spot on.


Before you grow overly concerned America was exporting grain for a long time before the Globalism meme took over our government in the late 1970's. I am old enough to remember the competition over who was feeding more of the third world during the Carter Presidency, America or the USSR.
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 16 Jan 2017, 21:45:28

"Some countries are net exporters of food (their food exports are larger than their food imports) while others are net importers of food (their food imports are larger than their food exports).

Among the net exporters of food we find the majority of South American countries, with the exception of Venezuela and Suriname, the United States, Canada, Mauritania, Indonesia, Australia, and a few African countries such as Mauritania, Ivory Coast and Ghana. The largest net exporter of food, by far, is Argentina with $23.42 of food exports per every $1.00 of food imports. Argentina is followed by Brazil, New Zealand, Paraguay and Iceland.

Among the net importers of food we find countries such as Russia, Finland, Sweden, the UK, Italy, Germany, Portugal, Sudan, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, Japan, etc. The largest net food importer is Eritrea, with $0.01 of food exports per every $1.00 of food imports. Eritrea is closely followed by Venezuela, Turkmenistan, and Algeria."

http://www.indexmundi.com/blog/index.ph ... worldwide/
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 16 Jan 2017, 23:20:06

If you redid that chart as net tonnes exported you would see a different picture. The USA exports tonnes of cheap grain then buys a lot of out of season fruit and vegetables and coffee because it has the wealth to do so.
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 16 Jan 2017, 23:21:47

Go find that chart and show me.

I was suprised by this one. I'm willing to be educated.
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 17 Jan 2017, 00:25:45

Newfie wrote:Go find that chart and show me.

I was suprised by this one. I'm willing to be educated.


This is the problem with comparing dollar value with food calories. Grains are boring and cheap, fresh grapes out of season are fewer calories and much more expensive on a calorie by calorie basis when it comes to meeting your daily requirement to stave off famine.

Try this chart from the USDA,

Image

Russia has now completely recovered from the really bad decade of the 1970's while USA exports have fallen by 50 percent. Net result Russia is now exporting more grain than we are.

You might be able to blame a good part of that on the fact that much American grain is now used for ethanol production and a lot of the rest is used for feed lots for livestock instead of letting them graze as was the common practice before grain prices went so crazy low.
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 17 Jan 2017, 08:18:33

Panama is neutral on that map but actually they are a net importer and are not self sufficient in food production. We keep a small number of cattle and pastures here at Mount Totumas because this allows us an exemption on paying property taxes. This subsidy is to encourage food production and applies to crops as well.
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 17 Jan 2017, 09:06:40

I wonder what chart economist use?

Thanks for your graphic Tanada. But even that is incomplete as Ibon points out. I know Newfoundland imports about 90% of its food.

I think that this points to areas that are very vulnerable to societal collapse. Basically Asia, Oceania, the Mid East, and Africa and smaller countries without significant grain production. The exports powerhouses pretty much represent the First World and Power brokers.

It also show how much of the world is dependent upon globally sourced food stuffs.

IMHO the current nationalist resurgence in the grain exporting states puts the rest of the world at risk of starvation. It's those exporters that can afford to withdraw into their borders. Sure we will be without Asian toys, but they will be without Western (largely) food. We can't tell if or when such disruption will happen or how it would be handled/negotiated. The range of possibilities is large.

It's a bit like the Ebola scare. It turned out to be minor, but that was not at all sure at that time. Had two or three breaks into deep ghettos occurred and it may have been different. During WWII nearly as many died from starvation in non combatant countries as all fatalities in combatants. We are more vulnerable now.
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 21 Jan 2017, 13:42:31

I think a definite sign to trigger a Collapse would be a Pandemic. Already in seeing news reports and posting on the Medical Issues forum, Superbugs are killing people without antibiotics being of any avail. They also seemed to have gotten out of hospital settings where they were mostly confined. Combine that with such overcrowded conditions. I just watched recently a documentary of how most influenza could be traced to a particular region in China starting about 5000 years ago with the mixing of humans with poultry. Well since then obviously much more contact between and among humans, poultry and other animals like cows and pigs. All facilitating the outbreak of some new deadly virus strain. Then other practices like air travel and more cutting down of virgin pristine forests exposing unsuspecting humans to deadly and new pathogens. So, scientists have been quoted as saying it is not a matter of if but when. tick tick.
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 25 Jan 2017, 09:25:06

I came across this New Yorker piece. It's about how the super rich are becoming preppers. Sounds like about 50% of the billionaires and "centi-millionaires" are taking some measures, not unlike a lot of what we hear on the doomer boards.

What I found interesting was the observation that these guys made their money because they are good at predicting the future, they are tuned in to trends. Still a lot of them view it as catastrophic insurance.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/ ... super-rich
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 25 Jan 2017, 09:49:42

This piece from our own front page is also interesting. This, to me, is a new view of how our global economy is evolving.

https://econimica.blogspot.com/2017/01/ ... e.html?m=1

IMHO BOTH of the above reports have some significant flaws, they are at best isolated giews into the world dynamics. I think they should be read as such, one view point, with partial information, not intigrated into the whole.

The WEF Global Risks Report is similar but is a bit more comprehensive.

Still they each have some value.
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 12:39:50

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... se/441375/

Here's How NASA Thinks Society Will Collapse

Too much inequality and too few natural resources could leave the West vulnerable to a Roman Empire-style fall.
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 15:45:43

Brief.

Similar conclusion to LTG.

I agree with the suggested solution, its not likely.
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 16:05:29

Newfie wrote:I came across this New Yorker piece. It's about how the super rich are becoming preppers. Sounds like about 50% of the billionaires and "centi-millionaires" are taking some measures, not unlike a lot of what we hear on the doomer boards.

What I found interesting was the observation that these guys made their money because they are good at predicting the future, they are tuned in to trends. Still a lot of them view it as catastrophic insurance.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/ ... super-rich


The richer you are the more you have to lose, the less trusting you are, the more you actually rely on the status quo to maintain your privilege, the less you are confident of your ability to be self reliant because you know that your privilege has turned you soft and that on an equal basis of wealth you could no longer compete with the more desperate. All of this makes the rich more paranoid, less foot loose, more prone to putting up fences and wanting insurance.

All of this above would tend to cloud the elites judgement so I would not correlate their prepping as being more prescient then the rest of the population, just a bit more paranoid.

Ever wonder why don't have many members from developing countries here on po.com.

Where are the indians, the filipinos, the bolivians, the haitians, the namibians? They couldn't be bothered.

All of us here are just a couple of million dollars away from being elite. We aren't all that much different.

How many of you could compete on an equal basis of wealth with your average Mexican, Nigerian, Vietnamese, Mongolian?
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Re: Early Warnging Signs of Societal Collapse

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 16:52:52

Excellent point. Somewhere, the 1% thread I think, someone had a wealth calculator. Not based on the USA, but on world averages.

We and not I change my USA standards, not by a lot. According to that site we are in the top 1%, world wide.

Still, the upper regions do control international trade. If they freak out they could crash the global financial system. Which could be very ugly for many folks.
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