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Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Lore » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 11:10:54

Cog wrote:
Lore wrote:Asking for a rest not silence .

perhaps you should not read this thread or responding it if it disturbs you that much


What concerns me is that its nothing but a bash KJ thread.... maybe you should worry about those too?
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Cog » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 11:37:49

KJ has big boy pants so I doubt he's worried about getting bashed.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 11:39:00

davep wrote:
This very Forum, and all others, are only possible and only exist because people like me figured out ways to conduct business over trusted systems online.


You were involved in Diffie-Hellman, or RSA? AES? Stream ciphers? It'd be interesting to know your cryptographic credentials.


davep, not to be flamingly obvious about this, but I was talking about a computer system series with hardware fault tolerance, and you are talking about software.

In the most basic explanation, you take a fault tolerant hardware platform, consisting of multiple CPUs, and you implement a "loosely coupled", message-based operating system. The application level code and the middleware (which is what you are talking about) runs in this environment in two entirely separate CPUs, where every software program has a backup process and they talk (checkpoint one another) over a couple of high speed busses (two of everything, complete hardware redundancy).

No hardware failure can stop the execution of the application code. Every stock exchange, every commodity exchange, of the seven dozen or so all over the world uses our computers. Every credit card company, every bank, every billing application, every OLTP application everywhere has a NonStop® fault tolerant platform sitting in a secret chilled room counting money. Once a failure occurs, the computer "phones home", we repair it online and restore full fault tolerance. We are talking about "seven nines" of reliability - the probability of a properly integrated application running on a NonStop® fault tolerant system being available to the user is 0.9999999. (Which means our stuff has on average less than 3 seconds of downtime per calendar year.)

Those PCs and mobile devices and Wintel or Google or Unix servers that you see and touch are just front end hardware for the NonStop®. The computers I am talking about literally run the world, and even though we started installing them in 1977, most people have never heard about this part of the infrastructure - nor do we go out of our way to seek publicity (in fact we hide these computers in secret chilled rooms) but if we couldn't do business over the Internet, the net simply would not exist. Not to mention other critical applications such as nuclear power plants, hospital patient record keeping, FAA flight plans, insurance companies, and (it's ironic) the manufacturing facilities that build everything we manufacture the world over - including all our competitor's computers. (Michael Dell removed our logos and replaced them with his own.) It goes on and on - but if it absolutely MUST WORK or you are out of business, you need a NonStop® computer.

That is what I spent 35 years of my life building - the infrastructure computers that you didn't even know about, that run everything critical everywhere.

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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby radon1 » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 12:02:07

Lore wrote:
What concerns me is that its nothing but a bash KJ thread.... maybe you should worry about those too?


I actually found KJ's posts in this thread very interesting. Do not see any reason for bashing, but do see some reasons for querying.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby davep » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 12:16:02

Ah, so nothing to do with trusted systems online. Everyone and his uncle has worked on fault-tolerant high availability systems without necessarily claiming they invented the internet. That's Al Gore's job :-D
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 12:59:42

KaiserJeep wrote: Fourier Analysis is about decomposing a complex and seemingly chaotic "signal" into constituent parts - these parts are sines and cosines, which the Ancient Greeks called "harmonics", not linear functions.
I am quite familiar with the theory of Fourier transforms. For example, see this paper based on my work. Evans' filter is a linear operation on the time series.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 13:06:31

davep, There are only what were originally were called "Tandem NonStop Computers" and imitators. IBM and AT&T are among the tech firms to attempt and fail to build competing fault tolerant hardware platforms.

IBM gave up and hides our stuff out of sight, while selling financial services of various types that their customers believe run on IBM hardware - little do they know and "pay no attention to that computer behind the curtain".

AT&T tried for years to make fault tolerant UNIX platforms, then they gave up and paid us to develop NEBS versions of our stuff (basically NEBS is a specification for hardened central office landlines, and all compliant equipment runs on -40 volts DC from the battery UPS busbars). They also pretend that UNIX is doing the whole job, and don't emphasize the NonStop backbone systems (which actually have Motorola logos because Motorola is the systems integrator).

Tandem Computers Inc.had a subsidiary for encryption products called Atalla Systems, the major application was originally secure ATM networks. I did not work for them, they were a secretive group.

From 1977 to 1992 the company grew like gangbusters, right up until we peaked at about $82B in revenues. Then the growth ceased because our stuff was basically already in every critical application everywhere, we had totally saturated the OLTP market. This "no growth" caused us to be vulnerable to a takeover, and Compaq bought us and pretty much left us alone for 3 years - then HP bought Compaq, and even though the Tandem company founders were all ex-HP, that much older company was no longer an enjoyable place to work, for an ex-Tandem person who had seen and lived and worked in a better place.

My last 8 years at HP were spent in sustaining NonStop platforms I had worked on the design teams for earlier. When you consider that I graduated before the original IBM PC and worked with NonStop computers in the 1970s containing ferrite core memory, it was a pretty good run.

Today the NonStop operating system and the fault tolerant applications are one of four environments that run on clustered HP servers with Itanium and X86 CPUs. You have to buy and implement a redundant set of hardware, but you can port your application from the original Tandem to the HP clustered server with the tools and services we offered. NonStop hardware designers no longer exist at HP, but the NonStop part of HP still contributes annually about $80B of the highest margin business HP has. (HP just split, HP NonStop systems are part of HP Enterprises.)
Last edited by KaiserJeep on Thu 19 Nov 2015, 13:20:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Simon_R » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 13:18:43

Hi KJ

Interesting, I used to be a mid range lad, now moving to small discrete pc clusters.

I take your point about complexity, in any system, modelling macro is inherently easier than micro (you can predict a nations response to a stimulus, however a single person is much much harder). So in that respect any macro model is not completely outré.

However once he has (if he can) performed a successful prediction, for the model to be really groovy, he would need to start to get more complex, attempting if not a bottom up, at least a 1/2 way up approach.

Whilst I am personally sceptical of his model, I keep an open mind.

The ultimate test will be if 2018 is cooler than 2017. Has he said how he is intending to measure the earths temperature, so an objective proof can be applied (I know it will take years to actually prove) as without a criteria for measuring heating or cooling, then all that will happen will be more arguments.

Moderators - as we seem to have lots of bets (cost of oil / heating and cooling) would it be a good idea to record these so we can check our performance ?

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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 15:54:42

This has been a good thread to review the "in the 1970s scientists said we were entering an new Ice Age bullshit." It's mostly the usual photoshopped images, misquotes, and direct lies. Deniers simply took their usual techniques and backdated them 50 years. Nobody is really clear what it's supposed to even mean, but for people with a certain mental state, apparently this makes complete sense (Benghazi!!!)
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 17:46:41

KaiserJeep wrote:
As I recall, Keith, a flaming libtard Democrat named Al Gore claimed ...


KaiserJeep wrote:
What I am is unaligned politically....


Sounds like it. :lol: :lol: :roll:
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sat 21 Nov 2015, 03:18:18

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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby davep » Sat 21 Nov 2015, 04:05:04

Haha!
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 10:57:04

Cog wrote:KJ has big boy pants so I doubt he's worried about getting bashed.


I wouldn't say that. He seemed to quit the site for a while when everyone tag-teamed him on his AGW denial. I knew he'd be back, but I wouldn't say that the fact most here think he's an idiot for being a denialist doesn't bother him.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 10:58:45

Cid_Yama wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:
As I recall, Keith, a flaming libtard Democrat named Al Gore claimed ...


KaiserJeep wrote:
What I am is unaligned politically....


Sounds like it. :lol: :lol: :roll:


His denial seems to extend to denying his own Fox-News style conservative beliefs.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 15:55:04

You simply don't know me well enough. I don't deny either of those things, I take pride in them.

I feel contempt for those who depend upon the security of being in the majority opinion on all things. Nebbishes, not worthy of the carbon they emit.

Ask yourself if you would have the courage to be an AGW fanboy in a world full of what you call deniers.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 16:48:27

Oh, I have a feeling we've all put in our time battling overwhelming 'majorities' of deniers on websites like WUWT and in comments sections of pretty much any article ever published on the subject in any MSM outlet.

It's not an issue of being brave.

It's an issue of being intellectually honest, and maybe being able to rub a couple brain cells together once in a while to good effect. :)
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 16:50:22

KaiserJeep wrote:You simply don't know me well enough. I don't deny either of those things, I take pride in them.

I feel contempt for those who depend upon the security of being in the majority opinion on all things. Nebbishes, not worthy of the carbon they emit.

Ask yourself if you would have the courage to be an AGW fanboy in a world full of what you call deniers.


Actually I was a nuclear power advocate in college in the early 1980's because if is the best alternative to fossil fuels for both electricity and process heat production. There was a big dual use fission fuelled set up being built in Midland Michigan at the time. The fear mongers got it cancelled about 70 percent complete and they replaced it with a natural gas burning system. Dow Chemical was the partner IIRC and would have been using nuclear steam heat for process heat in their big operation built next to the power station.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 17:07:59

dohboi wrote:Oh, I have a feeling we've all put in our time battling overwhelming 'majorities' of deniers on websites like WUWT and in comments sections of pretty much any article ever published on the subject in any MSM outlet.

It's not an issue of being brave.

It's an issue of being intellectually honest, and maybe being able to rub a couple brain cells together once in a while to good effect. :)


No, I think it is all about intolerance. You just cannot stand the thought that there is a diversity of opinions on AGW/CC as there are on most things. You side with the 97% majority opinion of climate scientists and then you try your best to exterminate dissenting opinions, just as if you were a Dalek.

It matters not to you that there is still a 3% dissenting opinion amongst real climate scientists about whether AGW/CC is happening. It matters not to you that about 80% of the adult population disagrees with the assertion that human activity is responsible for causing AGW/CC.

YOU personally have not performed any analysis or experiments to confirm AGW/CC, have you? You have instead a large amount of faith in Science - with a capital "S" because it is the religion of modern man.

It's pathetic, really.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 17:11:39

Hmm, by 'tolerating' you seem to mean 'completely agreeing with in spite of complete lack of evidence.'

Only an idiot or someone being deceitful would totally agree with someone he knew to be absolutely wrong. But you feel persecuted--a poor, hapless victim--because people fail to fall to your level of idiocy.

Oh, and thanks for mimicking my sign off--highest form of flattery and all that (but doens't speak very well of your originality).
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 17:26:44

So tell me, what principle of Science requires you to go off all over the internet, and stamp out minority opinions?

Why must you practice such bigotry? Is there not room on the planet for those that disagree with you?

What prompts you to persecute and mistreat those who do not share your particular obsession?

Now think about this carefully: Would it not be a better world with a diversity of opinions in it, versus a monolithic "group think" imposed via universal condemnation over the internet media of the minority opinions?

It is, after all, the policy here at this PO.com Forum to encourage minority opinions. You in particular are among the most intolerant. Why?
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