Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 15:08:54

25,224 on the DOW today just saying. On an unrelated note, a lot of profit taking went on today and I joined that particular herd. Why? To take advantage of the new tax rates. Enjoy if you are in the market. Sucks if you aren't.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10192
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 15:37:46

Cog wrote:25,224 on the DOW today just saying. On an unrelated note, a lot of profit taking went on today and I joined that particular herd. Why? To take advantage of the new tax rates. Enjoy if you are in the market. Sucks if you aren't.

Not being a day trader, I have no clue how to identify lots of profit taking if the market isn't selling off strongly. Is that in the news, or do you look for certain indicators (if you don't mind my asking)? And thanks for any insights in advance.

I've been taking some profits IN US stocks for a year now. Fine if the market keeps going up, and no greedy regrets if it corrects 20% or so (or even more), as could easily happen in the next few years. Harvested some capital losses in mining inflation hedges to manage the taxes. (Buying them back cheap and being patient after the wash sale period works for me -- I don't believe inflation is dead, just subdued for now).

If the foreign markets continue to blaze upward for a couple/few years as they generally did last year, then I will have to take a look at some profit taking in them. (I'm a lot more globally diversified than most investors. Call it a hedge against the US Beltway clowns.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5129
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 17:25:10

No inside knowledge. Saw some massive blocks of stocks being sold today. 20-30k blocks all day in my portfolio. Course someone is buying them as well. Even so DOW finished up. I haven't bailed out at all. Just positioning some cash to buy if there is a downturn.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10192
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Tue 16 Jan 2018, 09:49:03

DOW breaches 26,000. Enjoy the ride.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10192
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 15:22:59

the DOW is almost down 1,000 points!
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8998
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 15:31:33

onlooker wrote:the DOW is almost down 1,000 points!

So are we now proclaiming the DOW correcting several percent means doom?

Before you do, 2008/2009 wasn't all that long ago. Market cycles happen. The tough thing is predicting them with ANY meaningful accuracy.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5129
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 15:36:43

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
onlooker wrote:the DOW is almost down 1,000 points!

So are we now proclaiming the DOW correcting several percent means doom?

Before you do, 2008/2009 wasn't all that long ago. Market cycles happen. The tough thing is predicting them with ANY meaningful accuracy.

I didn't say anything about doom, just pointing out what is happening.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8998
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 15:49:36

onlooker wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
onlooker wrote:the DOW is almost down 1,000 points!

So are we now proclaiming the DOW correcting several percent means doom?

Before you do, 2008/2009 wasn't all that long ago. Market cycles happen. The tough thing is predicting them with ANY meaningful accuracy.

I didn't say anything about doom, just pointing out what is happening.

Might be a wake-up call for several groups, such as:

1). Crypto-bulls if this gets nasty, at least for a while as people run from risk. An article I saw said the DOW was down 1500 points. Chart looked kind of like a flash crash (about 800 points down in about 15 minutes) for part of that.

2). Over-aggressive bulls who haven't seen a bear market in a while (or ever) and get scared.

3). Technology riders who assume that stocks like TSLA, STX, NVDA, FB, NFLX, AMZN can only rise due to things like automation.

...

Maintaining a very balanced portfolio (selling about 20% of my stock holdings (all US) over the past year, given the basically straight-up nature of the US market since spring of 2009 and Mr. Twitter as POTUS), as an example. Sleeping at night -- priceless.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5129
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby GHung » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 15:52:29

onlooker wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
onlooker wrote:the DOW is almost down 1,000 points!

So are we now proclaiming the DOW correcting several percent means doom?

Before you do, 2008/2009 wasn't all that long ago. Market cycles happen. The tough thing is predicting them with ANY meaningful accuracy.

I didn't say anything about doom, just pointing out what is happening.


It's becoming clear that O_S projects his own subconscious, unacknowledged, sense of doom on everyone else. Anytime someone makes him nervous he calls them "doomer". It wouldn't surprise me if he has a collection of doomer voodoo dolls.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2214
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 15:52:58

onlooker wrote:I didn't say anything about doom, just pointing out what is happening.


Dude, you spammed two threads with your DOW down by 1,000 points Paul Revere act with a sensationalistic ! at the end of it. Come on. Nobody points out what's happening here unless they are either building up or tearing away at the idea of doom. There is no middle-ground and everyone knows it so don't try to hide behind plausible deniability.
Last edited by asg70 on Mon 05 Feb 2018, 15:57:24, edited 1 time in total.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
asg70
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1765
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby GHung » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 15:56:38

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:I didn't say anything about doom, just pointing out what is happening.


Nobody points out what's happening here unless they are either building up or tearing away at the idea of doom. There is no middle-ground.


There's no middle ground because you binary thinkers can't compute complex systems. I play the middle ground most of the time which invariably gets shunted into doom territory.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2214
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 15:58:12

GHung wrote:I play the middle ground most of the time


What you perceive as the middle-ground and what the actual middle-ground is may be two different things.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
asg70
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1765
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 16:10:41

GHung wrote:
onlooker wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
onlooker wrote:the DOW is almost down 1,000 points!

So are we now proclaiming the DOW correcting several percent means doom?

Before you do, 2008/2009 wasn't all that long ago. Market cycles happen. The tough thing is predicting them with ANY meaningful accuracy.

I didn't say anything about doom, just pointing out what is happening.


It's becoming clear that O_S projects his own subconscious, unacknowledged, sense of doom on everyone else. Anytime someone makes him nervous he calls them "doomer". It wouldn't surprise me if he has a collection of doomer voodoo dolls.

If you ever said anything worthwhile instead of ad-homming like a child, I'd be surprised.

You don't seem to know a damn thing about anything -- certainly not about me.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5129
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 16:11:10

There are many, many visions of the future, because each human generates them continuously. All such visions share the same properties. They are insufficient, optimistic, and incorrect in every detail. They are the way reality is selected, by rejecting all other choices. When everyone's dream of the next moment has finished, the only remaining path is the one reality, and we begin our dream of the moment after that. Death is that time when you cease to create new dreams, and experience the collective dreams of those left alive forevermore. When you come to understand this, you can't tell anyone else, and you'll know exactly why: because then you are yourself dead.

You are not typing this, or reading it either. I am, because I wanted the rest of you to understand.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4904
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 16:12:16

DUDES, you sometimes confuse reality with doom. As much as I would like to live on a place akin to Heaven, this planet ain't that. As Ghung said your projecting your own fears

It wouldn't surprise me if he has a collection of doomer voodoo dolls.


:P , :lol:
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8998
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 16:17:05

onlooker wrote:DUDES, you sometimes confuse reality with doom. As much as I would like to live on a place akin to Heaven, this planet ain't that. As Ghung said your projecting your own fears

It wouldn't surprise me if he has a collection of doomer voodoo dolls.


:P , :lol:

When you learn the difference between your and you're, or something meaningful about economics, feel free to learn something meaningful, and then lecture me.

Your signal to noise ratio is zero. Congrats.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5129
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 16:30:40

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
onlooker wrote:your projecting your own fears

When you learn the difference between your and you're, or something meaningful about economics, feel free to learn something meaningful, and then lecture me.
Your signal to noise ratio is zero. Congrats.


Image
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
asg70
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1765
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 16:34:49

I was short in the market so I was looking for a small pullback to December levels. No reason except the market was too hot and I could stand a little risk. Worked out okay but I got out too soon.

The fear came from the bond yields increasing and the fed being hawkish to slowdown inflation. Inflation is expected to increase because the middle class just got a small raise. The raise comes from more government debt. The fear isn't misplaced -- debt-to-gdp ratios already suck and yields may continue to rise going forward. The whole thing is so stupid but I don't really think the market cares too much, back to greed tomorrow.
GoghGoner
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1728
Joined: Thu 10 Apr 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Stilłwater subdivision

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 16:39:45

When interest rates are set to rise, I would run for the exit.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8998
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 16:42:55

onlooker wrote:When interest rates are set to rise, I would run for the exit.


You mean like the FED three rates rises we had in 2017 and the market went up 6000 points? Is that the rise you were referring to. LOL

Good buying opportunity was offered today and I took it.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10192
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Next

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests