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Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby GHung » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 14:43:37

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Something I noticed last night and carried into today. Since Friday, crypto-currencies have generally been trading in correlation with the US stock market (day to day, anyway).

Coincidence, or a statement of overall confidence?

I hadn't really thought of crypto-currencies generally reflecting global stock market exuberance in 2017 overall. I'd assumed that was a completely different thing.

I suppose this adds to the evidence that much or even almost all crypto trading might just be short term speculation, instead of some core belief that (for example) Bitcoin will change the financial world -- mirroring the basic idealism of, say, big time Tesla fans.


Commodities are also tracking each other fairly closely, especially oil and P metals.

Oil is black line.

Vs. Gold
Image

Vs. silver
Image

Seems sentiment is a cross-market thing.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 17:15:10

Crypto's started crashing a while back.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 17:43:52

Maybe you should consider not just shorting stocks but leaving the market altogether Cog

Since the financial crisis a market bubble has been created by the world's central banks, which have flooded stocks in the hope of stimulating an economic recovery, according to Michael Pento, president of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS).

But now this bubble is set to burst, which will mean the total collapse of financial markets across the world, the Wall Street expert warned.


https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/ ... estment-ex
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 18:05:26

First a link from 7 years ago and now a sensationalistic piece from two years ago. You're on a roll.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 19:58:14

asg70 wrote:First a link from 7 years ago and now a sensationalistic piece from two years ago. You're on a roll.


LOL onlooker frantically tries to find the doom he seeks. I'm unsure why people who are not in the markets are always trying to get you to exit them. Had I followed the article's advice, I would have got out of the market 8000 Dow points ago.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 20:03:58

Cog wrote:
asg70 wrote:First a link from 7 years ago and now a sensationalistic piece from two years ago. You're on a roll.


LOL onlooker frantically tries to find the doom he seeks. I'm unsure why people who are not in the markets are always trying to get you to exit them. Had I followed the article's advice, I would have got out of the market 8000 Dow points ago.

Nope just connecting the dots past, present and future
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 20:42:55

onlooker wrote:Nope just connecting the dots past, present and future


Old predictions don't have a lot of value.

Image

What's next, dredge up Kunstler's predictions of Y2K doom?
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 12:06:02

Yeah, so bond yields have gone back up, above 2.8% on the 10 year. Where did that money go which supported the short-term move that yields made to the downside, from which they've now moved back up? I see that cryptocurrencies are now following the markets. If you assume that the markets really move based upon liquidity, the supply of money available to invest in them, then it could be that cryptos are behaving the same way. They seem to have taken up some of the money that was in bonds, which was put there as a reaction to the initial market fall. Oil and gold have fallen too. Neither has crashed. Oil ran up along with the markets. Gold sort of did, but not enough for it to receive much attention. I don't know what corporate bonds are doing. As I said before, dividend yielding stocks have been falling for some time, presumably in anticipation of a rise in rates. Those could be taking up some of the money that's come out of bonds as well. It's about your starting position in relation to your finishing position in this case.

We aren't yet talking about an actual inflation of the money supply causing a rate structure increase that further drives the carnage, just the anticipation of that. The funny thing is that this is happening at a time when the artifices surrounding the attempt to stave off deflation, quantitative easing especially, are coming to an end. There is actually a lessening of money supply growth happening at the same time as the rate structure is about to rise. That's actually deflationary. Deflation is bad for the markets. It shouldn't be a worry if normal economic activity is powerful enough to take over, holding off deflation on its own. But this whole thing was said to have started because of a good jobs report and a rise in wages. So, you see, there are several trends at work, and they are contradictory. That's what the markets do, work out contradictions. Maybe that explains why the markets have reacted so violently to what amounts to a small rise in rates. At most there is uncertainty over whether there will be 3 or 4 rate rises this year. The difference doesn't explain what is happening. The difference plus the end of the artifice and some confusion over whether robust economic activity means the same thing may well. One thing's for sure, somebody wants higher rates. I think, above all, this points out a difference between real economic activity and financial activity, and the folly of considering them as equals. The instruments that the governors are using are directed based upon figures that don't either apply to each, or apply in unequal portions.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby GoghGoner » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 11:20:07

I hope it does stabilize.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-experts-starting-see-parallels-financial-crisis-153200210.html

This time around, rather than mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations tied to the housing market, the culprit appears to be volatility trading instruments in stocks.

And the volatility-linked instruments are leading the charge downward. The fire sale in stocks, including Thursday’s 1,033 point drop in the Dow, is dragging down even the stocks of companies with strong earnings and record profits. Apple announced its largest quarterly profit of all time on Feb. 2 and has seen its stock fall nearly 7% since.

According to EPFR weekly fund flow data, this week marked the largest withdraw from equities ever recorded, with U.S. funds posting $32.9 billion of outflows. That comes just one week after U.S. stocks recorded their largest ever weekly inflows.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 12:05:07

Volatility continues. IT looks like the bottom has not been reached yet
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 12:14:08

WOW in the span of 5 minutes went over to over 300 points down the less than 250 than back up to 300
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 16:10:20

DOW finished up 330 points but who can really say with all the volatility if that is the nadir or not. Oh and Oil finished under $60
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby tita » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 17:28:40

There is quite some room for the correction... Dow can fall to $22'500 and still be higher than 4 months ago. Not exactly worrying.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 11:27:20

I think what this recent tumble really points out is a problem with monetarism. As soon as the economy begins to benefit the little guy, as soon as wages rise a little, it has to be reined in. That's why after the recent employment figure scare the markets tanked. They feared a rate rise because a rising pay structure for average people should trigger that, according to current theory. The way that monetarists see the economy leads to wealth inequality. It fosters schemes to lift the markets and expand the money supply without adding to average people's wealth. People can have things, but they have to go into debt to have them, in order to make up for their lack of pay. That may give those people what they want, or need, but it also puts them in harms way when things go bad. They are not only not allowed to 'make it' but are also forced into a situation where they serve as a buffer between those that are and trouble. You hear a lot about a rising tide floating all boats, but the long-term statistics on wealth equality have not borne that out.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 13:46:50

I was aware of but not much interested in the DJIA conniptions this week. Then a news commentator brought it home when he said it "was the most dramatic movement in the Dow since Spring 2016". The last 10 years still look like this:
Image
...its a non-event in a slow news week.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 11 Feb 2018, 06:54:56

KaiserJeep, your graph is about a year out of date...it went a lot higher (as the 5 year graph below shows). The fall was more significant than you are showing, but I do agree that it is still a little correction when one looks at the changes over a number of years.

For me the question is was this post week just a small interruption to the flow of the market over the last years, or is it a sign of a new direction (sideways or even down)? I do not know the answer, but looking at the 10 year graph the falls can be a lot swifter than the climbs.

Imagehttp://www.bbc.com/news/business/markets/us/djse_indu
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 11 Feb 2018, 07:13:20

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/pos ... 0d8aae597d
This week's stock market drop was machine-made. The freakout that followed was man-made.

Interesting insights
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 11 Feb 2018, 10:19:23

evilgenius wrote:it has to be reined in. That's why after the recent employment figure scare the markets tanked. They...


THEY rears its ugly head once again at peakoil.com.

Image
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 11 Feb 2018, 11:06:57

asg70 wrote:
evilgenius wrote:it has to be reined in. That's why after the recent employment figure scare the markets tanked. They...


THEY rears its ugly head once again at peakoil.com.

Image


Alright, try reading that in context. What I am talking about is a possible flaw in an idea, not a network of conspiracies. "They" would be adherents to monetarism, who are in control in most decision making positions over policy. I propose that their thinking is flawed. Their barometer is how the 99% are doing. If they are doing too well, then rates have to go up. Focus when you read.

Now, I am aware of the business cycle and the wage price spiral. Monetarism seemed effective at battling them, much more than the Keynesian and other post war theories had up until then. You could have criticized what I said based upon that. Don't forget where the problematic inequality began, though. It started back in the 70's. Monetarism gained its greatest triumph when it crushed the economy in order to trounce OPEC over high oil prices, when Paul Volcker raised interest rates so high in the late 70's. Much of what Milton Friedman talked about is right. I don't think the whole idea needs throwing out. It's more like it has become dogmatic, and lost its connection to the science. Science demands doubt, not true believers. I think there are a lot of true believers making decisions, and not calling into question the brutality nor the reasonableness of what they are doing.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 11 Feb 2018, 16:35:49

"lost its connection to the science"

Which says what?
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
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