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Doomers and Bad Assumptions

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 12:41:18

evilgenius wrote:I admit to having doomer tendencies. Part of that is just clean fun.


Yup.

evilgenius wrote: And you always have to run the worst case scenario past yourself when you are thinking about the future.


Exactly right. Nobody knows what the future will bring. The cornucopians who see a rosy future don't have monopoly on truth, and neither do the doomers who see imminent doom.

A more rational way to look at the future is as a spectrum of probabilities.

The chances of total doom from all causes in the next year----probably very very low.

The chances of total doom from all causes in the next 10 yeas ----- somewhat greater

The chances of total doom from all causes in 20 years ------ greater still, but even so perhaps still not very high. Somewhere between 0.1-5% maybe?

So not the most likely outcome, but still a real possibility.

And then there are things that don't mean total doom, but which come with higher probabilities.

The chances that peak oil will occur in the future------100%

The chances of continued global warming-----100%

The chances of continued sea level rise ------- 100%

The chances of hotter and longer heat waves in the summer ------- 100%

The chances that social security will need to be cut .......... 75+%

The chances that major state pension funds in Illinois, Connecticut, etc. will go bankrupt....... 95%

The chances of debt causing a major economic/political crisis the in EU -------- 75%

The chances of debt causing a major economic/political crisis in the US ------ 90%

Etc. etc.

You don't have to be a doomer to realize that economic crisis, global warming, and even future doom is a real possibility. You can even rough out the probabilities of various outcomes, within broad limits.

Image
The probability of future doom is not zero.

CHEERS!
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 14:39:33

onlooker wrote:No, I will honor our wager :)


Looks like doom approacheth for your pocketbook.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 14:46:46

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:No, I will honor our wager :)


Looks like doom approacheth for your pocketbook.

Worse! I told him if I lose I am outta here :cry:
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 14:49:02

You guys can gabber and chat all you want, but it is whistling past the grave yard.

Saudi Arabia, The Greatest Oil Kingdom Ever . . . is . . . over. SA can not and will not raise production, certainly not to where Trump wants it, 12 mbpd. And then the cat is out of the hat.

Peak Oil IS HERE

Time to invade Iran.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 15:12:46

Either way, the kingdom, OPEC’s biggest member, can barely raise output by 1 million bpd to 11 million bpd and even that would be difficult, according to industry analysts who forecast a further oil price rally due to a lack of new supply.


Reuters; Can Saudi Arabia pump much more oil? No.

Also from the article;

AMRITA SEN, Chief Oil Analyst at Energy Aspects
"We will be in unchartered territory. While Saudi Arabia has the capacity in theory, it takes time and money to bring these barrels online, possibly up to 1 year"

GARY ROSS, head of global oil analytics at S&P Global
"The Saudis do not have 2 million bpd of spare capacity as it would imply production of 12 million bpd. They can likely produce a maximum of 11 million and even that will be running their system at stress levels"

'stress levels' . . . as in reservoir damage. That's a real-world issue. Not a political statement.

MORE FROM ROSS
"He added that with a potential output fall of up to 1.5 million bpd in Iran and further outages in Venezuela and Libya, the world could be short of 2 million bpd of oil output without an increase in Saudi output by the end of the year."
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Pops » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 15:14:07

evilgenius wrote:... those whom I have known as real doomers, worse than me, have all been narcissists.

One trait of a true narcissist is a belief in their infallibility. We're all narcissists to some degree, in the sense that simply moving forward in the day to day requires making lots of assumptions about the world around: that car will stop at the sign, that fish taco won't poison me, the sun is likely to rise tomorrow...

Gazing deeply into my navel I find my tendency is to discount other's assumptions about more speculative events in direct correlation to their conviction. IOW, the more certain someone seems of their own infallibility on whatever topic —corny or doomy— the more certain I am that they are likely wrong and trying to fool themselves or me or both. I tend to question their assumptions more than someone who expresses a willingness to consider alternative evidence. I respect experience and study more than knee-jerk reaction, especially of the partisan variety, but I find it hard to take off the cuff blather of even an expert as gospel with out their citing the book and verse.

My tag for a long time was "we don't see the world as it is, we see it as we are." How else are we to perceive the world than through the lens of our experience and inherent "wet works"? My experience early on was in somewhat less than idyllic circumstances, though certainly not as grim as some (most by global standards). How that translates to my worldview I think has always been that most of us in the rich world don't know how good we have it and how easy and far it is to fall. Most folks I interact with even here at PO have experience only of a relatively stable life. Even the fantasy that the lights wouldn't come on at the flick of a switch or the cupboard would be bare is beyond them... LOL, many folks wouldn't know what to do with a box full of "staples" if if their life did indeed depend on it.

As far as assumptions of doom, I'm feeling more and more that we've had a pretty soft go of it the last 60 years and in some perverse way are rebelling against our own success. I hate to agree with Steve Bannon on anything, so I won't, but I do feel a change in the air different from the surface racist/sexist/tribal resurgence.

I think we've lost a sense of shared sacrifice, of e pluribus unum. Union brotherhood gave way to bell curve adversarialism. The company town morphed into a Quik Sac on the commute route to the supra-national satellite office. Watergate, Nam & priestly fondling, along with leisure time and interactive media that provides an individual broadcast platform for every conceit has undermined trust in the old institutions. Most of all, rather than bringing ourselves more together by expanding the civil rights of everyone, we all fancy ourselves the prime victims and carp at each other online about how unfair and rigged it all is and disown our relatives via facebook if they dare point out our privilege.

But hey, fracking
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 16:45:13

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:No, I will honor our wager :)


Looks like doom approacheth for your pocketbook.

Speaking of which, if the folks with the various theories of rapid economic doom (repeat frequently as each succeeding short term theory fails to crash the system rapidly) -- if the folks who spouted and supported such theories constantly shorted the financial system with anything like the intensity they pronounce it doomed -- I don't see how they'd be able to pay much of anything. Like for food, rent, etc.

Sure, there would be good times for them like the 2008-2009 crash, but a solid majority of the time, it would be a slow grind toward poverty.

Just think how well shorty would do on all his claimed oil shorting. OTOH, that might fit in with not paying his bet.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Pops » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 16:56:34

actually, many here prophesied economic doom prior to the crash of '08, the dots were pretty obvious if one were not invested in the continuation of BAU
"Shorting" the RE boom of the oughts in CA by selling out and moving somewhere cheaper so far has eliminated 13 years of mortgage payments for me and likely saved me from BK to boot

Endless Doom without action however is indeed just mental masturbation.
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 16:57:39

Plantagenet wrote:...

The chances that social security will need to be cut .......... 75+%

The chances that major state pension funds in Illinois, Connecticut, etc. will go bankrupt....... 95%

The chances of debt causing a major economic/political crisis the in EU -------- 75%

The chances of debt causing a major economic/political crisis in the US ------ 90%

Etc. etc.

Good post and I agree over all.

If you say SOME state pension funds will go bankrupt (i.e. not all, and not even all in trouble), then I'd agree the odds are quite high.

(I worry more about Europe than the US with countries like Greece, but OTOH with states like Illinois and various US cities, both economic zones have plenty of persistently bad actors).

And again on the debt causing a major crisis in the Euro zone and/or US, certainly likely at some point. However, just like overall doom predictions, the timing of the prediction is key.

Eventually, or more precisely "in several decades", for example is a FAR different probability than the frequent insistence from Cassandras that such events are almost always just around the corner (i.e. within a handful of years, say).

For one thing, politicians love to put bandaids on big problems, declare them "solved", and know they've bought a decade or three. By the time the problems say "WE'RE BAAAAACK!", it's likely someone else's problem -- or they just blame everyone else. Dealing with state pension issues or balancing national budgets are fine examples of that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:17:24

No oil producing nation/region is able to increase production. This is PEAK
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:21:28

Chances PEAK is behind us= 100%
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:28:24

Point being . . . now it will be known. Due to the idiot in the white house
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 06 Jul 2018, 11:32:46

pstarr wrote:Due to the idiot in the white house


At least you think the guy in the white house is an idiot. I'll give you that much.

I do agree with the sentiment that the more cocky and self-assured someone seems with their analysis/prediction, the less faith I have in them. This is because they are probably suffering badly from Dunning–Kruger. They're bad listeners and do not incorporate knew knowledge. Short was a great example. came across like his sh*t didn't stink. Never paid attention to rational rebuttals. Just responded with ad homs.

What I've noticed is that as the doomerverse has shrunk that the die-hards, more often than not, tend to fit into Short's personality profile. PStarr definitely does, or StarvingLion with his hystrionics. The net effect is the loss of anything resembling an intellectual discussion and in its place you just get endless snark and ad homs.

The best place to see this dynamic is the commentary under this site's news articles. Those posters, who tend not to post in the actual forums, tend to do nothing but lay down snark and insults. Nothing they say has any value whatsoever.
Last edited by asg70 on Fri 06 Jul 2018, 11:43:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 06 Jul 2018, 11:39:40

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Due to the idiot in the white house


At least you think the guy in the white house is an idiot. I'll give you that much.

So generous. Not only are you brilliant, but also a warm and generous human. So kind. And learned. :)

Oh Kind Sage-One; when and where will the next oil bonanza be revealed? That one that will pull us out of this hole. The new production that will offset the collapse of OPEC-14 and the rest.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Cog » Fri 06 Jul 2018, 11:42:28

You operate on a false assumption pstarr. Can you figure out what that might be?
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 06 Jul 2018, 11:48:32

pstarr wrote:Oh Kind Sage-One; when and where will the next oil bonanza be revealed? That one that will pull us out of this hole. The new production that will offset the collapse of OPEC-14 and the rest.


If you would like to follow Onlooker in the hall of bad predictions feel free to formalize one and into my sig it goes.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 06 Jul 2018, 11:48:57

Bad assumptions? That you are worth reading?


Cog wrote:Westexas tried to pedal that 6.7% world wide decline back in 2006 on the Oil Drum. He even had fancy charts and stuff you doomers love. Guess what? It didn't happen.

Stick with your toys. Go shoot up a beer can. But please . . . stay out of adult conversations. I wouldn't expect you to read this, but . . .
The IEA 2008 World Oil Report concentrated on defining future decline rates. They published a production-weighted average decline rate worldwide of 6.7% as of 2007. This is predicted to rise to 8.6% by 2030 as more and more old giant fields pass their plateau and start to decline, and the long tail of global production shifts to smaller more rapidly depleted oilfields. As of the IEA 2010 World Oil Report (the latest freely availble) the IEA stood by these predictions.


"IEA uses IHS data. Decline rates are calculated for all fields in the database (including 798 “giants”). The overall decline prediction method may over-state decline rates, as pre- plateau fields have an assumed rate.

The IEA differentiate between Natural Decline (9%) and Observed Decline (6.7%), the difference being attributed to field interventions such as infill drilling. In total they calculate a 5.1% decline for 580 fields post-peak, and 5.8% for 479 fields post-plateau. The total is adjusted to account for thousands of smaller fields not included in their dataset to reach the 6.7% number.

IEA observe that Non-OPEC fields, with fewer Giant and Super-Giant fields, decline at a faster rate than OPEC fields. Additionally, offshore fields decline at faster rates than onshore, and deep-water fields decline at a faster rate than shelfal fields."
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Pops » Sat 07 Jul 2018, 09:50:10

One of the worst doomer assumptions ever was that somehow supply-side PO would manifest as excess supply and low price. I assume that was just a stopgap overnight armageddon fantasy to tide them over until actual decline set in.

Luckily we've returned to familiar PO territory:

Image


I can't remember how many stupid arguments I had with people arguing the glut was due to falling demand even though demand was demonstrably increasing. And of course still is...

Image


Luckily most folks here don't seem to do much in the real world based on their online assumptions one way or another, but deficits ahead seem likely.

Image
Image

Although our balance shows the call on OPEC falling by nearly 0.4 mb/d in 2019 [due to US increases], further declines in Venezuela and the potential impact of sanctions against Iran would require higher production from those producers with spare capacity. If the other 12 OPEC members were to continue pumping at the same rate as May, a potential supply gap could emerge and lead to a draw on stocks of more than 1.6 mb/d in 4Q19.


info from OMR 18/6
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 07 Jul 2018, 22:22:39

Pops wrote:actually, many here prophesied economic doom prior to the crash of '08, the dots were pretty obvious if one were not invested in the continuation of BAU
"Shorting" the RE boom of the oughts in CA by selling out and moving somewhere cheaper so far has eliminated 13 years of mortgage payments for me and likely saved me from BK to boot

It's funny how life works out. I was buried in both my father and life partner (girl friend) dying during that time (and being sole caretaker for both of them), so I had little time or energy to look for such trends (unlike my normal habits).
Timing -- whatyougonnado?

OTOH, re the big picture, once the concern got on the news, I figured, well, I have NO exposure to real estate. No house. No REITs. Nothing. So I figured it wouldn't affect me worse than a typical correction in the stock market plus recession.

Oops. Having no concept of the magnitude of what was happening re banks, I COMPLETELY missed that one.

Would I have been "smarter" if paying closer attention? Frankly, I don't know how to tell, after the fact.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 07 Jul 2018, 22:29:55

Pops wrote:One of the worst doomer assumptions ever was that somehow supply-side PO would manifest as excess supply and low price. I assume that was just a stopgap overnight armageddon fantasy to tide them over until actual decline set in.

But there are so many variations of Cassandra-style oil doom to choose from! While ETP was in style (and we still have folks here who can't let go, no matter what) we had a forecast for both low supply (the economy can't afford the lifting costs) AND low cost (the economy is in a massive depression due to lack of oil)! And when people with brains brought up that this idea makes NO sense re economics (not enough supply results in higher prices in the real world), we were told economics is just a bunch of nonsense and doesn't apply. (I paraphrase).

One thing about fast-crash doomers re the various theories over time -- they DO get around.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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