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Doomers and Bad Assumptions

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 08:08:37

[quote="Plantagenet"]
But DELAYING peak oil isn't the same as "getting past it.

[quote="asg70"]
The world really is about to end because I actually agree with this as well.


The system bug will not let me post if I use the quote HTML so I tried putting your statements in different colors of text to make clear who was saying what.

Perhaps it is time to revive the Plateau threads. Turns out we are all three in agreement and that is a rare event in this place these days.

Yes I know technically oil production on a world scale has not plateaued because the USA has grown incredibly in output over the last decade. But world demand has soaked up most of that expanded US Capacity at this point and is still growing robustly. At the same time growth elsewhere (compared to 2008 production rates) has been small while in some provinces like the North Sea declines have been relentless over the last decade balancing out those small increases elsewhere. If not for Fracking we would be well past world peak and if you accept that Hubbert was writing about 'conventional' reservoirs then we have been past peak for a while, we have just delayed the consequences by fracking our brains out in the USA. If not for the 'Great recession' that severely reduced USA/EU consumption for several years we might have proven peak to all and sundry by now including Mr. Lynch aka Spike. For those who care he most recently logged in last Friday but didn't find anything to say on that occasion. He mostly posts on the thread about himself and I might move these posts over there to get his attention.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby mmasters » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 08:16:42

I meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.

Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.

There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 08:35:37

mmasters wrote:I meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.

Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.

There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.

I think Doom is a very personal concept. For some folks having millions of deseperate refugees flooding into Europe/Canada/USA/Australia/NZ is DOOOM!!!

YMMV

While what you say about abundant Natural Gas is true of the USA/Canada it is most definitely NOT true about East Asia or Western Europe. Both regions pay top dollar for LNG imports because they are very short in local production to current needs, and once we are past Peak Oil that demand will increase even further as they seek to offset petroleum declines.

Personally I think ICE burning compressed Natural Gas CNG are great, especially for fleet vehicles like buses, waste trucks and taxi cabs. It also works pretty well in city driving for personal vehicles because the short range in not a significant issue if you have a CNG system installed in your home or live near a station where fill ups are quick and easy. A CNG filling station can top up a vehicle onboard tank in about the same time as you need for a liquid fuel 'conventional' ICE tank, but the energy density is only about half. Being restricted to a 150 miles range is not an issue for primarily city drivers, especially if the ICE is coupled with an electric hybrid system.

What I really want for a personal vehicle is an ICE that has a duel fuel system with CNG/Gasoline and a plug in hybrid system. I see that as the near ultimate in flexibility. Use electric for all very short trips, switch to CNG for medium length trips and use all three systems for very long trips. So in my dream arrangement I would get 40 miles pure electric + 150 miles CNG, and if no CNG filling stations were available another 200 on the gasoline reserve tank.

Of course complexity breeds additional maintenance so in the long run probably be better off with just the CNG+PHEV.

To be clear, I see Peak Oil as a problem, not a disaster (Doom) unless we make it into a disaster.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 08:50:03

mmasters wrote:I meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.

Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.

There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.


One of the readers at WUWT found this doomer gem from onehundredmonths.org (web location now available) - predictions from 2008, as kiwi chick likes to say rinse and repeat, wonder where she learned that!

100 months to save the world Climate change
The final countdown
Time is fast running out to stop irreversible climate change, a group of global warming experts warns today. We have only 100 months to avoid disaster. Andrew Simms explains why we must act now - and where to begin.

If you shout "fire" in a crowded theatre, when there is none, you understand that you might be arrested for irresponsible behaviour and breach of the peace. But from today, I smell smoke, I see flames and I think it is time to shout. I don't want you to panic, but I do think it would be a good idea to form an orderly queue to leave the building.

Because in just 100 months' time, if we are lucky, and based on a quite conservative estimate, we could reach a tipping point for the beginnings of runaway climate change. That said, among people working on global warming, there are countless models, scenarios, and different iterations of all those models and scenarios. So, let us be clear from the outset about exactly what we mean.

So, how exactly do we arrive at the ticking clock of 100 months? It's possible to estimate the length of time it will take to reach a tipping point. To do so you combine current greenhouse gas concentrations with the best estimates for the rates at which emissions are growing, the maximum concentration of greenhouse gases allowable to forestall potentially irreversible changes to the climate system, and the effect of those environmental feedbacks. We followed the latest data and trends for carbon dioxide, then made allowances for all human interferences that influence temperatures, both those with warming and cooling effects. We followed the judgments of the mainstream climate science community, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), on what it will take to retain a good chance of not crossing the critical threshold of the Earth's average surface temperature rising by 2C above pre-industrial levels. We were cautious in several ways, optimistic even, and perhaps too much so. A rise of 2C may mask big problems that begin at a lower level of warming. For example, collapse of the Greenland ice sheet is more than likely to be triggered by a local warming of 2.7C, which could correspond to a global mean temperature increase of 2C or less. The disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet could correspond to a sea-level rise of up to 7 metres.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... nemissions
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 09:13:35

That is all wishful thinking. We have passed the point of no return
19 ways climate change is now feeding itself


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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 11:03:07

mmasters wrote:I meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.

Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.

There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.

I think the "doom" discussion for the vast majority of folks who hand out here (aside from the pure cornies, who might believe BAU growth can be maintained until, say, the sun expires) is really just a difference in time frames.

Rapid BAU growth runs into mathematical problems over time, even if technology and efficiency can continually mitigate the increasing resources required (as they have certainly tended to, thus far -- big picture).

The fast crash doomers can't seem to accept that even meaningful change such as actually hitting peak oil (in terms of global production of refinable barrels of crude oil produced from all sources) does NOT equate to short term doom. Higher oil costs, probably. The need for the average person to use somewhat less, yes. Inconvenience, yes. Whining, yes. Resorting to higher efficiency meth?ods like car pooling, less driving, driving smaller cars or e-bikes, yes.

Bottom line, maybe it's as simple as claiming some inconvenience equates to doom for all is absolute nonsense. And painting the future with the worst possible outcome at every turn -- how well does THAT work out as far as credible predictions?

...

It would be a lot more PRODUCTIVE, IMO, to try to work out whether likely adaptation methods are realistic.

...

For example, even though they're not frequent, the risk and intensity of spontaneous fires from large battery packs for things like EV's and Tesla powerwalls concerns me. I'm now significantly less enthusiastic about putting Powerwalls in my house for backup power, or an EV with a large battery in my driveway, as burning down my house and my stuff isn't on my agenda re good things to do. :idea:

Now, there are folks on this site with some expertise on such systems, such as Baha. Wouldn't it make more sense to have a discussion about an issue like that and perhaps LEARN something, find other good info. sources, etc. make more sense than claiming that battery packs can't possibly be a good thing because they are a fire risk?

Baha mentioned recently, as I recall, that he plans to park his EV away from his house. Maybe having the Powerwall complex in a shed X yards from the house, with extra thermal shutdown precautions, vs. putting it IN the house would be worth the extra expense? (I can only intuit this, Baha might have some very practical knowledge about fire risk over the line to the house, or some sort of automatic heat sensing fire suppressors or fusible links, etc.)

I suppose I'd like to see more such "information dense" discussion here than the more common "Doom is real soon now due to this article" vs. "No it isn't for obvious reasons X, Y, Z)".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 11:21:52

mmasters wrote:There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.


Unless you are really really old, doom in a generation will be doom for us as well. And you aren't going to wake up one morning and say, "Oh its doom now." The road to doom is a slow progressive destruction of the global environment and the economy....and that is exactly what we're seeing. That means things will be getting worser and worser all the way to doom.

A generation is usually considered to last 20-25 years......at the rate we're going on global warming, mass immigration, US deficits, global political disfunction, and consumption of oil and other natural resources I can well believe we will be halfway to doom in only 10-12.5 years.

The trend is not our friend.

Cheers!
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 11:26:47

mmasters wrote:I meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.

Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.

There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.


It won't be a situation where everything will be fine and then "doom" will suddenly take place. Rather, it may be a slow decline with various crashes.

In this case, conventional production peaked in 2005, and higher production cost plus increasing debt contributed to the 2008 crash. That weakened various industrialized economies and led to lower oil demand, with most of the world making up for the drop.

Most of the world needs more oil and material resources to feed a growing global middle class, and the industrialized economies are counting on that because that's the only way they will be able to maintain the value of their credit. But the amount of resources needed will involve more than 50 years' worth of natural gas. Rather, it will need something like four Saudi Arabias, or generally the equivalent of at least one more earth.

Without that, the global economy may crash, forcing most people to engage in subsistence living. In a worst case scenario, some will refuse to accept that, leading to increased conflict.

In short, what has been happening the last decade (e.g., the U.S. crash and that of PIIGS, high food and oil prices at the pump, unemployment problems masked by low-quality jobs, rigged stock markets, volatile commodity markets, several countries destabilized or attacked, increasing tensions between various military powers, oil companies facing over $2 trillion debts and increasing global debt) may become worse, with the effects of environmental damage and global warming amplifying them.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 11:31:09

jawagord wrote:
One of the readers at WUWT found this doomer gem from onehundredmonths.org (web location now available) - predictions from 2008, as kiwi chick likes to say rinse and repeat, wonder where she learned that!

100 months to save the world Climate change
The final countdown
Time is fast running out to stop irreversible climate change, a group of global warming experts warns today. We have only 100 months to avoid disaster. Andrew Simms explains why we must act now - and where to begin.

If you shout "fire" in a crowded theatre, when there is none, you understand that you might be arrested for irresponsible behaviour and breach of the peace. But from today, I smell smoke, I see flames and I think it is time to shout. I don't want you to panic, but I do think it would be a good idea to form an orderly queue to leave the building.

Because in just 100 months' time, if we are lucky, and based on a quite conservative estimate, we could reach a tipping point for the beginnings of runaway climate change. That said, among people working on global warming, there are countless models, scenarios, and different iterations of all those models and scenarios. So, let us be clear from the outset about exactly what we mean.

So, how exactly do we arrive at the ticking clock of 100 months? It's possible to estimate the length of time it will take to reach a tipping point. To do so you combine current greenhouse gas concentrations with the best estimates for the rates at which emissions are growing, the maximum concentration of greenhouse gases allowable to forestall potentially irreversible changes to the climate system, and the effect of those environmental feedbacks. We followed the latest data and trends for carbon dioxide, then made allowances for all human interferences that influence temperatures, both those with warming and cooling effects. We followed the judgments of the mainstream climate science community, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), on what it will take to retain a good chance of not crossing the critical threshold of the Earth's average surface temperature rising by 2C above pre-industrial levels. We were cautious in several ways, optimistic even, and perhaps too much so. A rise of 2C may mask big problems that begin at a lower level of warming. For example, collapse of the Greenland ice sheet is more than likely to be triggered by a local warming of 2.7C, which could correspond to a global mean temperature increase of 2C or less. The disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet could correspond to a sea-level rise of up to 7 metres.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... nemissions


It doesn't mean that disaster will take place in 100 months. Rather, it refers to reaching a tipping point in around 100 months where we can no longer reverse the effects of climate change.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 11:48:31

ralfy wrote:[

<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/aug/01/climatechange.carbonemissions>

It doesn't mean that disaster will take place in 100 months. Rather, it refers to reaching a tipping point in around 100 months where we can no longer reverse the effects of climate change.


If you look at the date on that article, you'll find it was written in August 2008....exactly 119 months ago.

We're probably ALREADY PAST the date of the tipping point that means there is no return to a normal climate and no way to stop climate change doom.

We might as well just relax and enjoy the show now. The end of the world should be well worth watching.

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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 13:22:29

Agree, with Planty and Ralfy, Collapse is not an event but a process. So, relax Outcast, we are not all crying out "The End is nigh" haha.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby mmasters » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 14:06:16

Plantagenet wrote:
mmasters wrote:There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.


Unless you are really really old, doom in a generation will be doom for us as well. And you aren't going to wake up one morning and say, "Oh its doom now." The road to doom is a slow progressive destruction of the global environment and the economy....and that is exactly what we're seeing. That means things will be getting worser and worser all the way to doom.

A generation is usually considered to last 20-25 years......at the rate we're going on global warming, mass immigration, US deficits, global political disfunction, and consumption of oil and other natural resources I can well believe we will be halfway to doom in only 10-12.5 years.

The trend is not our friend.

Cheers!

My take is the doom stuff is at least 30-50 years out in the US. Trump is starting to streamline the way things operate, lessen our dependency on other countries and that should hold us for a good 20 years. There so much natural gas and recycling of materials the natural resources picture should be fine for 20-30 years.

When the doom comes it will be the haves and the have nots. People that have made well for themselves and insulated themselves from the rest should be OK.

I think climate change is too complex to be fully understood at this time. There's too many feedback loops. It may be a serious problem or it may not be; it's a wild card.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 17:41:04

Natural gas will not free America from energy imports. There are 114,533 gas stations in the United States. A NG conversion to some/all would be in the $trillions. Then there are the 263.6 million passenger cars that would need to be somehow retrofited with NG carbs and tanks. That's a bunch more $trillion. Most reasonable measure put peak before 2020. Then we will need three Saudi Arabias worth of new oil every year from them on to prop up the economy. Just to keep on. More money for the NG conversion.

The wealthy depend on the poor in so many way. Much of our oil today comes from third world countries. They will be third world heck-holes post peak
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 04 Jul 2018, 23:55:51

mmasters wrote:
My take is the doom stuff is at least 30-50 years out in the US. Trump is starting to streamline the way things operate, lessen our dependency on other countries and that should hold us for a good 20 years. There so much natural gas and recycling of materials the natural resources picture should be fine for 20-30 years.

When the doom comes it will be the haves and the have nots. People that have made well for themselves and insulated themselves from the rest should be OK.

I think climate change is too complex to be fully understood at this time. There's too many feedback loops. It may be a serious problem or it may not be; it's a wild card.


The catch is that the type of lifestyle that most citizens want is heavily dependent on high levels of energy and material resources needed to manufacture and ship goods across extensive supply chains and lengthy distances, often involving JIT systems which will allow for only a few days' worth of food, medicine, fuel, and even ammo in various cities and towns. This even applies to those who "have made well for themselves and [have] insulated themselves from the rest."

The implication is that it's not just climate change but the whole system of industrial civilization that has allowed global population to rise to more than seven billion that is highly complex, and at some time that complexity may cause the same system to unravel as the effects of limits to growth become more pronounced due to diminishing returns.

Meanwhile, ecological damage coupled with global warming can only make matters worse.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 02:57:27

ralfy wrote:
mmasters wrote:
My take is the doom stuff is at least 30-50 years out in the US. Trump is starting to streamline the way things operate, lessen our dependency on other countries and that should hold us for a good 20 years. There so much natural gas and recycling of materials the natural resources picture should be fine for 20-30 years.

When the doom comes it will be the haves and the have nots. People that have made well for themselves and insulated themselves from the rest should be OK.

I think climate change is too complex to be fully understood at this time. There's too many feedback loops. It may be a serious problem or it may not be; it's a wild card.


The catch is that the type of lifestyle that most citizens want is heavily dependent on high levels of energy and material resources needed to manufacture and ship goods across extensive supply chains and lengthy distances, often involving JIT systems which will allow for only a few days' worth of food, medicine, fuel, and even ammo in various cities and towns. This even applies to those who "have made well for themselves and [have] insulated themselves from the rest."

The implication is that it's not just climate change but the whole system of industrial civilization that has allowed global population to rise to more than seven billion that is highly complex, and at some time that complexity may cause the same system to unravel as the effects of limits to growth become more pronounced due to diminishing returns.

Meanwhile, ecological damage coupled with global warming can only make matters worse.

Well put Ralfy
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 09:28:14

pstarr wrote:They will be third world heck-holes post peak


Aren't you always harping on about us already living in a post peak world? I see back-pedalling.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 10:47:30

I admit to having doomer tendencies. Part of that is just clean fun. And you always have to run the worst case scenario past yourself when you are thinking about the future. Who doesn't wrestle with where they think the world will be 12 months from now? You need to have some kind of understanding in order to plan. Beyond that, those whom I have known as real doomers, worse than me, have all been narcissists. They seem to need others to believe them, so that it amounts to those people going to the church of worshiping the doomers based upon adhering to the doomer's understanding of the world. I don't mean the people, like Alex Jones, who make a profit off of conspiracy. I mean those who most think that listening to people like him and parroting what he says somehow amounts to them having an original thought on any matter. They go about retelling half truths and whole cloth fabrications so that they can discover them as their own. They want to have something different enough to say so that they will garner attention. It doesn't have to be based upon anything, though. It's an echo chamber of the worst sort.
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 11:57:46

What Evil states may be the case. But an equal if not greater bias exists. And that is simply the fear of a foreboding and terrible future. Fear can be an overwhelming emotion
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby Cog » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 12:11:37

onlooker wrote:What Evil states may be the case. But an equal if not greater bias exists. And that is simply the fear of a foreboding and terrible future. Fear can be an overwhelming emotion


Your future will be told on December 31st, 2018. Or have you forgotten our wager like Shorty?
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Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 12:22:03

Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:What Evil states may be the case. But an equal if not greater bias exists. And that is simply the fear of a foreboding and terrible future. Fear can be an overwhelming emotion


Your future will be told on December 31st, 2018. Or have you forgotten our wager like Shorty?

No, I will honor our wager :)
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