[Keith_McClary]

A picture of risk

The biggest causes for concerns therefore include fiscal crises and energy price volatility, while issues such as a slowing Chinese economy are seen as not as likely, but potentially catastrophic if allowed to happen. Non-financial issues such as water security also loom as significant threats.

[Revi]

Extreme energy price volatility made the list, and is near on the top right hand corner where the worst threats are put. It isn't as worrisome for them as climate change, but it's up there.

[Outcast_Searcher]

This looks like a mighty politically slanted view to me. Notice how big a deal they say "economic disparity" is. The hit they predict dwarfs the impact in this chart of things like "fragile states" and "Demagraphic challenges".

I call leftist NONSENSE on this datapoint. (I'm a centrist). Note that having climate change as the big honcho is consistent with this left wing agenda (I believe in AGW but take a Lomborg (Skeptical Environmentalist) attitude -- let's LEARN more before we jump at shadows and spend $trilllions in a panic, but BAU is stupid too).

Income disparity has been generally widening since Reagan. Despite all the pointing at "evil rich people" and "business", technological change where someone with the right education an good timing can make orders of magnitude more money than J6P explains this very well (effect of the rise of the PC and related technology). Now with a bad economy, the trend accelerates as finding ways to automate causes this faster than new product innovation, IMO.

So yeah, economic disparity is a fact of life, and has been. By itself, compared to MANY of the things on the chart, it is a relative yawn (unless your primary agenda in life is to find excuses to redistribute income). Besides, if you want to fix it, making REAL progress in education would be the best long term fix that actually helps society. This chart is interesting, but should be viewed with the likely political slant in mind.

[pup55]

Where is "impoverished underclasses in Arab lands finally get sick of it and revolt and lash out against their autocratic leadership"......

Have i reminded you yet what a mess Pakistan is? It's headed that way.

Although any and all of the things on this chart have some probability of occurrence, it's my guess that the real game changer is not even on here....and could come out of nowhere...

[scas]

Climate change is at the top right because it represents the biggest challenge to civilization and humanity. It will precipitate all other events. Skeptics, denialists, and anti-science folk are sure to find fault though. Those egg heads at NASA don't know what they're talking about. The best way to get rid of the worlds biggest threat is to say it doesn't exist. If that doesn't work, politicize it as an agenda. If that still doesn't work, blame it on the sun. Presto. Problem solved. Now where's my pay? I solved this issue a lot quicker and cheaper than those so called scientists who try to take away our money and our freedoms.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Where is "impoverished underclasses in Arab lands finally get sick of it and revolt and lash out against their autocratic leadership"......

Have i reminded you yet what a mess Pakistan is? It's headed that way.

Although any and all of the things on this chart have some probability of occurrence, it's my guess that the real game changer is not even on here....and could come out of nowhere...

That would be consistent with Taleb's "Black Swan" concept, and sounds very likely to me.

(I guess (speaking for J6P) we better rush out and buy lots of expensive useless planet destroying junk before whatever bad is coming up happens!)

[Keith_McClary]

The huge paradox at the heart of how people think about environmental risks
By Chelsea Harvey
Washington Post
November 4

In their study, published on Oct. 22 in the Journal of Environmental Psychology, the researchers found that villagers who were not directly involved with the mines (which were privately operated, not government-owned) perceived the risks associated with mining to be much higher, and were more likely to oppose the practice than people who actually worked in the mines and were more directly at risk of heavy-metal toxicity.

The researchers conducted the study by distributing questionnaires, which asked 220 local villagers questions about their level of concern for the effects of pollution on their village, crops and families; how much benefit they perceived themselves to be deriving from the mining operations; and whether they supported or opposed lead-zinc mining in the village.
...
So it seemed counterintuitive to find, in the new psychology study, that people who are more directly involved with the mining process — and, thus, more susceptible to its risks — were less concerned.
...
While such attitudes might be motivated by different factors in different cases, the researchers’ theory in the case of the lead-zinc mining community is that risk perception is driven by the perceived benefits of the risky activity. In other words, people who stand to benefit more from the mines themselves (for instance, by working and earning money from them) are more likely to perceive their dangers as being lower.

And, indeed, the researchers’ surveys showed that people who perceived more benefit from the mining also perceived less risk. People who saw less benefit perceived greater risk — and these people were also more likely to oppose lead-zinc mining in the community at all.

[Newfie]

Here is a link to the 2015 Risk Assessment paper done annually by the World Economic Forum.

[Keith_McClary]

Here is a link to the 2015 Risk Assessment paper done annually by the World Economic Forum.

http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2015/

Seems to be just a silly opinion poll.

They include terrorist and cyberattacks but not traffic accidents, pollution deaths and plain old crime.

[Newfie]

Well their focus is on global patterns. The things you mention represent sort of the "normal background" and ar not apt to change much. They ar looking at factors subject to change which could have a big impact.

That said I'm pretty disappointed with this years report. I only glanced at it be there is a very low correlation between this years report and last years. It is always surprisingly low but this year seems worse.

I agree that in many ways it is an opinion poll, but supposedly among a select set of folks "in the know."

In earlier years I have looked more closely at the data and that suggests folks who are expert in a field are generally more fearful of that field.