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Discussing with deniers?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby zeke » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 09:38:10

To me, the concept of resource peaking and depletion is a simple as a lesson learned at age 3 with a bag of jelly beans: sooner or later you say, "all gone!"

However, many friends who flame me for talking about peak oil have the following as foundations for their counter-argument:

1. "there's plenty down there"

and

2. "Oil companies want you to think the oil's running out to boost their profits."

To me, these are non-arguments because they either betray a lack of understanding of what "peak" oil means, are fatuous and self-delusional wishes for what could be, or they base an understanding of reality on the behavior of a for-profit industry.(ie, "high pump prices = plenty of supply.") which is antithetical to any man-on-the-street understanding of how for-profit companies work, with respect to finite commodities.

I talk about peak oil because I hope that people — even 1 person will snap out of it and realize that we need to change our behavior to get thru the coming decades better rather than worse.

Anyone care to share their techniques for debating/discussing this with people who are convinced that there's an inexhaustible supply of oil "down there" or at least how to attack the angle that rising prices mean ONLY that oil companies want more profits; not that supply is waning?

thanks!

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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby bl00k » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 10:51:57

zeke wrote:Anyone care to share their techniques for debating/discussing this with people who are convinced that there's an inexhaustible supply of oil "down there" or at least how to attack the angle that rising prices mean ONLY that oil companies want more profits; not that supply is waning?

When talking about high gasoline prices. I start about high oil prices. I say prices are high because demand has grown. Mostly from India and China. Oil prices arent high because oil companies are out to get us. I say it's a basic supply and demand question.

And thats where i stop. I dont talk about Peak Oil. I take it step by step. And for pretty much everybody, the first step is explaining high oil prices are due to high demand, and perhaps because of not growing oil production.

Most people will believe me when i say this. If i would have gone further as to saying something stupid as 'we are all doomed', they'd never listen to me again.

If i stumble upon a person who does not believe there's high oil demand (you know, the dumbest of the dumbest person). I'll say everything i want. I'll start talking about how his loved ones will probably not survive. How there will be wars. How there will be outrageous energy prices. And finally i will say, "in five years, you are gonna be thinking about me, when you find some time for some retrospection, the crazy dude that turned out to be right".

When talking about large amounts of oil. I start by saying they are right. There *is* an amazing amount of oil in the ground. But then i'll explain the whole EROEI story in the most easy way. I'll explain the bell-curve of an oil-field. I'll explain why oil in the ground today, is way different than oil in the ground a 100 years ago.

I won't start about how our future looks. I certainly won't say anything like 'we are doomed'. You have to stay credible. I'll make a joke here and there, but i will always finish with saying something like "it's just something to keep in mind, there are no guarantees for the future, dont expect the world to be the same in 5 years".
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 11:01:24

Have you tried your jelly bean argument with them?

I am a big fan of making that kind of argument and when someone comes back with one of the objections you mentioned just say, "I hope that works out for you." and then leave them sit for a while. A couple of months later when there is news (like when Kuwait mentioned its Bergen field did not have the previously stated reserves and had peaked), mention it too them.

to create a fictional example:

When they show up and say did you here about that new find in the Maldives? to return the favor. Be ahead on the news and say something to the effect of "yeah, "that's six months of oil at current rates. Somehow six months doesn't seem that big of deal to me."

Stay on top of the news. Do the math so that you can interprete the news, have an answer when they bring some specific objection and make them be specific (this is the hardest part). Practice guerrilla debate
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby roccman » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 11:04:10

A complete waste of time with family, friends, and coworkers.

Two weeks ago a friend spent $250 on glamor shots of her on the hood of her boyfriends corvette.

A year supply of food is $250.

She has two young kids.

My x goes out and buys new tits and her hubby buys a new F150.

Complete and utter denial.

I have handed out thousands of fliers in my neighborhodd with facts on PO.

I have presented before my city council with PO facts.

I have presented before my employer...sent books and CDs to my family...Nothing! not a heart beat, an email, a call, ZERO ZIP NADA Squat!!

They will perish without even "knowing"...and that is the difference.

Don't waste your time...people need to trip upon PO all by themselves and be able to open their minds.

I would guess there are less than 100K peaknics on the planet - we are a very small group.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby SpringCreekFarm » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 11:29:56

I'm with Rocc on this one. Don't waste your time.

Everyone will find out soon enough.

I think nearly everyone here has had the experience of trying to tell people only to come across as a nut job.

If you tell alot of people they may come banging on your door when the shit hits the fan and expect you to help them out. Better to be one "of them" in their eyes.

There is no point in trying to be a Prophet or Hero by telling people about peak oil. It's too late for the masses to find out. IMHO.
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby Niagara » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 11:44:20

I've had very limited success, but have been able to get through to some.

For example, I once had a chat with a friend from Alberta, who went on and on about the unlimited tar sand reserves. He finally got the picture.

To do so I used an illustration about asthma. Suppose you have asthma and you're gasping for breath. What's the solution? Would moving into a larger room help? You'd have more oxygen available. Or step outside, now you have an infinite supply of oxygen. Would that help, finding more oxygen?

No, the issue isn't how much available oxygen there is. The problem is the body's respiratory system cannot process oxygen fast enough to meet the body's needs.

We are developing "oil asthma".

Don't force the issue, lay out the facts and let people draw there own conclusion. Point out the 1000 barrels a second. Don't tell them that rate can't last. Instead ask them "how long can that last?" Let them draw a conclusion.


I like the quip I read on TOD somewhere:
"It's not the size of tank, it's the size of the tap"
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby erb » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 11:48:46

what we should put together is a fact sheet forum where we can go to get FACTS that are easy to understand to present to family, friends, listeners.

sometimes i'll take little bits of posts and news from here and post it on my facebook page (yea i know) and some of the people ask "where'd you hear that" or "how is that possible" suprisingly more people are listening to me cause i dont go doom and gloom on them and they know i redicted the dollar drop and rise in oil silver and gold.

i look at them and ask how's you investments?? oh yea shitty eh? remember when i said oil, silver and gold? remember when i said the US housing bubble was up? yea i thought so....

alot of the friends i used to hang out with listen very intently when i see them and i'd love to be able to print out a bunch of info showing the supply demand numbers and countries in decline and the numbers we'll be looking at next year

just an idea to be better infomed and not look nuts
LOOKING FOR -a view of the enditems-
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby dub_scratch » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 12:06:15

There is a way to get folks to think about this situation without going into the usual peak oil explanation, which usually translates into blank stares.

One way to get people to nervously think about our perilous energy future is to talk about the many problems of alternative energy and why they cannot replace oil. Talk about the destruction that scaling up biofuels would entail. Talk about the impractical aspects of the hydrogen fantasy. Talk about the amount of growth in renewable energy that we would have to see we were to make any significant transition. Talk about the enormous amount of time involved in scaling up any of these options.


And then mention the fact that oil is not renewable.
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby LoneSnark » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 12:14:22

I start out by showing them this graph, and then proclaim:

Image
"Between 1978 and 1996 the United States population more than doubled, the economy trippled, the number of miles driven exploded, but oil consumption did not increase a single barrel. In fact, from 1978 to 1983 oil consumption fell 21% before rising back to 1978 levels in 1996.

Who would dare argue Americans were poorer in 1996 than they were in 1978?"

Or, perhaps I misunderstood your question?
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby kpeavey » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 12:28:37

I talk to my sister about something, she says I'm the smartest person she ever met.

I try to explain the ramifications of peak oil, she says I'm crazy.

One time I finished a peak oil story with her by yelling
DON'T GO TO THE GOVERNMENT CAMPS

If she's gonna think I'm crazy, I may as well fill the role. Maybe, just maybe she will see the light in time, remember what I said, and avoid the government camps.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
_____

twenty centuries of stony sleep were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, and what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
-George Yeats
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby billp » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 14:11:13

----- Original Message -----
From:Cargill Hall
To: bill payne
Sent: Monday, December 03, 2007 2:00 AM
Subject: Re: How tie Iraq/Iran War Got Started

Bill: Better get used to high priced gas . . . while it lasts.

Carg


Cargill Hallis a 1955 graduate of Shattuck School. Payne is a 1956
graduate.
http://www.prosefights.org/shattuck/shattuck.htm

Hall and Payne are both 1959 graduates of Whitman College.
Last edited by billp on Fri 07 Dec 2007, 14:49:01, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby Kingcoal » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 14:35:41

Don't bother; they don't want to hear it. Most people are better off in their cocoon of comfort. The thing is, understanding the ramifications requires that a person understand our money system, understand the hydrocarbon inputs to our economy and perhaps the biggest problem that people have a hard time grasping; understanding the SCALE involved with our dependence on oil. Until a person begins to understand those points, you'll have a better chance of getting through to your cat or dog.

In delving into peak oil and it's ramifications I finally understood a lot of things about life. There is a reason why most people are "stuck" in dead-end jobs and hate their life. To put it bluntly, because that's what they want. The average person is a security freak; they carry their ideas and paradigms around in their head like an infant clings to his teddy bear or security blanket. The average person, really, deep down, is a child who wants to be taken care of by others, told that everything is going to be just fine and be given just enough for their work to stay above broke. The average person is a prisoner of their own comfort zone.

Right now, the extreme ramifications of peak oil are still years away for those of us fortunate enough to live in the developed nations. The third world, like always, will be the first to suffer. The best thing for those of us in the first world to do is to live below our means, don't bet on a rosy future, be cautious and conservative with your investments, stay out of debt. Be prepared for an uncertain future.
"That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby zeke » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 15:06:21

kpeavey wrote:f she's gonna think I'm crazy, I may as well fill the role. Maybe, just maybe she will see the light in time, remember what I said, and avoid the government camps.


excuse me..."government camps?"

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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby SpringCreekFarm » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 15:18:29

Look up the discussion on the FEMA camps here. Some folks believe that people in the US will be herded up in camps as a measure to control chaos. US refuge camps if you will.
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 15:45:26

I'm a member of the Energy Security Initiative, a group which focuses on spreading awareness of energy issues.

Recently we held a public viewing of The End of Suburbia. About 50 people showed up.

We had a decent discussion about it at our next meeting.

But everyone kept talking about how we need to build a hydrogen economy to keep suburbia in its cars.

I brought up the point that the hydrogen would be prohibitively expensive and that most of the outer ring exurbs will become the ghettos of the future because no one will bother to provide transportation to those folks.

I'd say about a third of the crowd agreed with me.

Lots of talk about New Urbanism and better city planning (lots of civil engineers in the mix).

But it all depends on your audience. The dumbest half of the population is just not capable of understanding a distant threat like energy security.
"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby swifty » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 15:54:07

Zeke,
Spare yourself. If you gently mention a few facts and you get "the look", you may as well just back off. I believe most people prefer not to hear about such ugly business. My experience is that most people think you are just being extremely negative. One should be enjoying life, as "there is nothing we can do about it anyway". These same folks suppose we can just deal with it when it happens - I suppose the same way one deals with the credit card bills - later when they are already here. We all know how well that works out.
Frustrating, isnt it?
:)
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby dsula » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 16:51:39

Kingcoal wrote:Don't bother; they don't want to hear it. Most people are better off in their cocoon of comfort.


My experience is different. I discuss PO with many people, engineers, sysadmins, academcis, but also with the builder that just worked on my house. To my surprise all of them knew that cheap oil is gone and will never come back. However I doubt they all comprehend the implications all this is going to have on our lives (I think none of us truly is). However none of them ever came up with the evil corporation, plenty of oil arguments.
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby RonMN » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 18:06:37

I go a bit beyond "don't bother".

You need to realize that you are putting yourself in danger.

1. When the shit hits the fan they will blame YOU (shoot the messenger).

2. When the shit hits the fan they will all show up on your door step with NOTHING, expecting you to feed them.

Tell them all that they were right & quietly prepare.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.
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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby zeke » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 18:42:16

RonMN wrote:Tell them all that they were right & quietly prepare.


OK. how does one prepare for this thing?

merely knowing about reality doesn't insulate one FROM it.

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Re: Discussing with deniers?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 07 Dec 2007, 18:48:35

nevermind. :).
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