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Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Jan 2016, 07:32:01

clif wrote:
Whomever applied for a building permit on the ocean side of that street needs their head examined, but the agency that issued the building permit is even worse!


Kinda harsh, given that the buildings were build 55-60 years ago, when the ocean would have been possibly 100ft further out.

I base this on the fact we NOW know;

of the coastline of California retreated at average rates of 2 to 6 feet (0.6 to 1.8 m) annually


http://www.dbw.ca.gov/PDF/Reports/Beach ... Bluffs.pdf

Almost all of what we know now comes from academic studies done after the buildings were built.

Much more all along that coast is at risk, these are just the most visible to the media talking heads.

This situation in California is analogous to the problem Florida has with sea level rise,

In both cases far too much has been built before the effects of the earths eco-systems were fully understood.


Beach Erosion is about as far from a new phenomenon as anything ever discovered. Claiming 100 feet was an adequate buffer for the life of the buildings is one thing, but people tend to think of buildings or property as a permanent feature of the environment. These structures were very literally built on sinking sand, something people have known was a bad idea from ancient times forward.

I am curious what geological forces deposited all this soft sand in high piles before sea levels rose to the current height? 125,000 ybp the ocean was some 7 meters higher than today, so they had to have either been deposited during the last ice age, or Earthquakes must have lifted this area up above sea level at some point.

The other thing to keep in mind with this being a San Fransisco suburb there is a high earthquake risk, and sand cliffs tend to crumble excessively when shaken.
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby Lore » Thu 28 Jan 2016, 09:04:55

The absence of clean water is not just about drinking a glass, or being able to bathe. It's about the quality of life for a million other uses besides agriculture. It's also the life blood of what makes business go round.

Limited water, limited business. No growth, but contraction. Places like Las Vegas and Phoenix are already reaching their limits. Future high costs of water and energy will be a wicked economic combination.
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 28 Jan 2016, 14:06:30

It still seems like some kind of rule should have kicked in as this predicable predicament approached. One person said they had just moved in. They should have stopped allowing new renters at some point, it seems to me.

It also does seem like, at this point, one good shake from even a moderate earthquake would probably put all those buildings in the drink.
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Jan 2016, 15:02:40

dohboi wrote:It still seems like some kind of rule should have kicked in as this predicable predicament approached. One person said they had just moved in. They should have stopped allowing new renters at some point, it seems to me.

It also does seem like, at this point, one good shake from even a moderate earthquake would probably put all those buildings in the drink.


Thank you fellow Midwesterner for seeing the same thing I see :D
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 28 Jan 2016, 20:16:41

"Where would said renters move then?"

???

Where are they going to have to move now, with no forewarning and probably no refund for the rent for this month.

Maybe I'm missing something, 'cause this just seems like a bizarre question.

Do you think it's heartless to prevent people from moving into a building that is about to fall into the ocean??
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 28 Jan 2016, 20:20:03

"And maybe the human carcasses would feed the starving sea lions, victims of changed (el nino) current flows."

They would certainly undergo a sea change...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_change_%28idiom%29 '-)

But it sounds like the property is now pretty much off limits except for people running in to gather their stuff and get the hell out. So unless they are very unlucky as to timing, the sea lions, etc will just have to find some other source of nutriment. (Would sea lions even eat human flesh...I kinda doubt it.)

ETA: Apparently some sea lions have taken bites out of humans, but apparently more as warning to stay out of their territory than as a munchable repast. "swimmers being bitten on the legs by large, aggressive males, possibly as territorial acts" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_lion# ... ith_humans
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 May 2016, 15:56:13

http://journalstar.com/news/local/unl-s ... d1ce1.html

A pre-eminent example of an expanding Hadley Cell further into the mid-latitudes. It was this exact same pattern, reproduced over a period of about 200 years that created the sand dunes of Nebraska during the medieval warm period.

By working backward from the dunes’ pattern, they determined that the winds that created them must have come from the southwest out of what is now west Texas and New Mexico, a desert area that would not have brought moisture to Nebraska.

As the area dried, fewer plants survived, wetlands dried up and the soil retained less moisture. These conditions heated the land surface, further strengthening the southwesterly wind flow in a kind of intensifying feedback loop. As the drought worsened, grasses died off completely, allowing sand to blow in the strong wind.


Thanks for link and text to jai mitchell at neven's forums.
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 04 May 2016, 17:39:57

dohboi wrote:"Where would said renters move then?"

???

Where are they going to have to move now, with no forewarning and probably no refund for the rent for this month.

Maybe I'm missing something, 'cause this just seems like a bizarre question.

Do you think it's heartless to prevent people from moving into a building that is about to fall into the ocean??



Did you see this? I found it while searching for an update on the Pcifica California erosian story.

http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/P ... 258607.php
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 May 2016, 19:50:22

Doesn't look like much of a dream house to me. I suppose it was the location. Until the location turned from a dream into a nightmare! 8O :lol: :(
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 14 May 2016, 20:42:23

http://news.discovery.com/earth/califor ... 160513.htm

California Drought May Be Permanent

California Gov. Jerry Brown called drought in the state "a regular occurrence" this week in a press release. "California droughts are expected to be more frequent and persistent, as warmer winter temperatures driven by climate change reduce water held in the Sierra Nevada snowpack and result in drier soil conditions."

"Recognizing these new conditions, the executive order directs permanent changes to use water more wisely and efficiently, and prepare for more frequent, persistent periods of limited supply."
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 12 Nov 2016, 04:19:18

Unprecedented. China's largest lake is dried up, with grass growing in the bed.
Video:
https://weather.com/science/environment ... dries-up-0
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby dissident » Sat 12 Nov 2016, 14:38:33

dohboi wrote:Unprecedented. China's largest lake is dried up, with grass growing in the bed.
Video:
https://weather.com/science/environment ... dries-up-0


Hey that's a greening trend! Things are going great and we are headed for global greening. //sarc
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 12 Nov 2016, 15:24:15

Thanks for directing our attention to this 6 month old article. Interesting that you chose not to include a link.

You denialists do like to cherry pick, don't you.

Since it was your article that you chose to bring to our attention, would you care to tell us whether or not you agree with this portion of the same piece? :

While rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the air can be beneficial for plants, it is also the chief culprit of climate change. The gas, which traps heat in Earth’s atmosphere, has been increasing since the industrial age due to the burning of oil, gas, coal and wood for energy and is continuing to reach concentrations not seen in at least 500,000 years.

The impacts of climate change include global warming, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and sea ice as well as more severe weather events.

The beneficial impacts of carbon dioxide on plants may also be limited, said co-author Dr. Philippe Ciais, associate director of the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences, Gif-suv-Yvette, France. “Studies have shown that plants acclimatize, or adjust, to rising carbon dioxide concentration and the fertilization effect diminishes over time.”


http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/201 ... ning-earth

Or do you only like specific parts of articles that happen to correspond to your rather blinkered world view?

More recent studies have shown that we have in fact passed that point of diminishing returns.

Also, the map in the article does not seem to support your claim that deserts are greening. One of the most prominent stretches where leaf cover has not increased over this time frame is all across the southern border of the Sahara Desert.
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 12 Nov 2016, 15:27:08

The Weather Chanel report mentioned lake water being used to irrigate rice fields. Does this particular lake resemble what happened to the Aral Sea where they diverted all the inflowing water to irrigate Cotton fields and left the lake to dry out with insufficient river flow?
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 12 Nov 2016, 15:32:20

Yeah, I'm sure there was lots of mismanagement as well as external stressors.

Bad to see another major world lake just going away. Lake Chad is another major lake that is the victim of a combination of human-driven insults.
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Re: Desertification/Permanent Drying Out

Unread postby dissident » Sat 12 Nov 2016, 16:58:55

pstarr wrote:"From a quarter to half of Earth's vegetated lands has shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on April 25."

It should be noted that the predonderance of the vegetation increase has occurred specifically in desert regions. You FanBoys/Girls have you work cut out for you. Let the insults fly lol



1) What is the plant-related change that would (assuming that all the spectral flux trend is 100% due to emission and not transmission and calibration errors) explain the greening? You assume it is bulk vegetation mass increase. I say, prove it. Greening could be 100% due to a tint change induced by stress.

2) A 14% trend on a low signal to noise, compendium of datasets from different satellite instruments is a bold claim to make. This "trend" could be the result of calibration changes over the last 35 years. Frankly, visible spectrum instruments are a side show. The focus has been on IR and generally longer wavelengths useful for trace gas species measurements and temperature measurements.

http://www.ace.uwaterloo.ca/instruments_acefts.html

3) http://iri.columbia.edu/news/climate-ch ... t-so-fast/

Oh my, looks like one of these greening studies has serious issues.

http://www.desmogblog.com/debunking-gwp ... l-greening

The Sahel is an example where multi-decadal precipitation trends having nothing to do with CO2 are being attributed to global warming. This is ludicrous and insane. In the future the real CO2 induced precipitation change will undo any greening we have seen in the recent past. Of course, somewhere there will be greening and climate habitability improvement on the planet even in the year 2400. But the problem is that this will not be enough to offset the devastation in regions which are livable to today.

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep15956

A more sober study of the "greening trend" in the framework of an evapo-transpiration trend. So precipitation is indeed a driver for the greening. Who would have thought...
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