[dohboi]

Water shortages lead to 'tanker mafia' in India

http://news.yahoo.com/water-shortages-l ... 48460.html

Every summer, when Minoo Phakey's water runs out, she does what most people do in her middle-class neighborhood: She calls the mafia.

Within an hour, a man in a tanker arrives, carrying a load of dubious water drawn illegally from the city's groundwater. With India's capital gripped by its annual hot season water shortage, the city's so-called tanker mafia is doing a roaring trade. An estimated 2,000 illegal tankers ply New Delhi's roads every day, lifelines to millions whose taps have run dry, and symptoms of a much bigger problem — the city's desperately dysfunctional water system.

The tankers don't come cheap. But some Delhi-ites have no choice.

"You need water, you will pay anything, right?" says Phakey, a marketing executive.

[Keith_McClary]

Rules of thumb turned upside down
14.09.2014 | Peter Rüegg | Research

With a new analysis of land regions, ETH climate researcher are challenging the general climate change precept that dry regions are getting drier and wet regions are getting wetter. In some regions they are encountering divergent trends.

Based on models and observations, climate scientists have devised a simplified formula to describe one of the consequences of climate change: regions already marked by droughts will continue to dry out in the future climate. Regions that already have a moist climate will experience additional rainfall. In short: dry gets drier; wet gets wetter (DDWW).
However, this formula is less universally valid than previously assumed. This was demonstrated by a team of ETH climate researchers led by Peter Greve, lead author of a study recently published in Nature Geoscience. Traditional analyses use technology that can comprehensively describe climate characteristics above the ocean, but is problematic over land. While this fact was mentioned in said studies, scientific and public discourse has neglected this aspect so far. In their new study, the ETH researchers in the group headed by Sonia Seneviratne’s, professor for land-climate dynamics, take into account the specific climatic properties of land surfaces, where the amount of available water is limited when compared with the ocean.
In her analysis, the climate scientists made use of measured data compiled solely on land, such as rainfall, actual evaporation and potential evaporation. The data derived from various sources was combined by Greve and his co-authors – this allowed them to extract trends in terms of a region’s humidity and dryness. Furthermore, the researchers compared data from between 1948 and 1968 and 1984 to 2004.

Link to 1900x900 image
Some regions which should have become wetter according to the simple DDWW formula have actually become drier in the past – this includes parts of the Amazon, Central America, tropical Africa and Asia. On the other hand, there are dry areas that have become wetter: parts of Patagonia, central Australia and the Midwestern United States.
Nevertheless, the ‘wet gets wetter’ rule is largely confirmed for the Eastern United States, Northern Australia and northern Eurasia. ‘Dry gets drier‘ also corresponds to indications in the Sahel region, the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Central Asia and Australia.
However, the DDWW principle does still applies to the oceans. “Our results emphasise how we should not overly rely on simplifying principles to asses past developments in dryness and humidity,” Greve explains. This can be misleading, as it cannot do justice to the complexity of the underlying systems.

[dohboi]

Thanks. I thought it was worth presenting the whole map, even though it is a bit big for this format.

A lot of interesting things here. I had heard that the Sahel was getting a bit wetter, but this map (and accompanying text) show it likely to get dryer (following the 'dry gets dryer' idea). Almost the entire eastern half of the US (except the deep South and parts of the upper MidWest) seems to be getting much wetter. Of course, that wetness does not necessarily come at useful times in useful amounts.

[dohboi]

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/drou ... pear-18097

Drought Takes Hold as Amazon’s ‘Flying Rivers’ Dry Up

Some Brazilian scientists say the absence of rain that has dried up rivers and reservoirs in central and southeast Brazil is not just a quirk of nature, but a change brought about by a combination of the continuing deforestation of the Amazon and global warming.

This combination, they say, is reducing the role of the Amazon rainforest as a giant “water pump,” releasing billions of liters of humidity from the trees into the air in the form of vapor.

Like a patient in advanced stages of a severe disease, the basic functions of major organs of the planet are starting to fail in rapid succession, from the Arctic Ice Cap rapidly disappearing, to the tundra burning up, to the Amazon drying up, to bee and butterfly populations collapsing...

Pretty soon it will be impossible to keep up with the lengthening list of systemic failures.

[dohboi]

The Aral Sea was once the fourth largest lake in the world.

Watch it dry up.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... it-dry-up/

(Now it's the Aral puddle. )

[dohboi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPq2piflcKI#t=121

Fleeing MEGADROUGHT; MIGRATING To a Safer Location

more on American migration: http://www.newsociety.com/Books/A/American-Exodus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmb1nFdRS8Q

[dolanbaker]

The Aral Sea was once the fourth largest lake in the world.

Watch it dry up.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... it-dry-up/

(Now it's the Aral puddle. )

This one is 100% manmade and nothing to do with the climate.

That disaster of a lake was a direct result of a USSR 5 year plan to irrigate the region for growing crops in the surrounding area. the only realistic way to reverse it would be to completely destroy the irrigation system and wait a few decades for the sea to recover.

[dohboi]

Good point. But note that the title of the thread is "Desertification," not just drying out due to GW.

Meanwhile, in Pakistan:

Children Starving to Death in Pakistan’s Drought-Struck Tharparkar District

The main entrance to the Civil Hospital in Mithi, headquarters of the Tharparkar district in Pakistan’s southern Sindh Province, is blocked by a couple of men clad in traditional dress and turbans. They are trying to console a woman who is sobbing so heavily she has to gasp for breath.

She lost her two-year-old son just moments ago and these men, both relations of hers, were the ones to carry the child into the hospital where doctors tried – and failed – to save him.

Just a couple of yards away, a team of paramedics waits for the shell-shocked family to move on. They understand that the mother is in pain, but scenes like this have become a matter of routine for them: for the last two months they have witnessed dozens of people, mostly infants, die from starvation, unable to withstand the fierce drought that continues to grip this region.

http://www.ipsnews.net/2015/01/children ... -district/

(Thanks to climatehawk at robertscribbler's blog for this link.)

[Keith_McClary]

I just wanted to introduce the concept of "CO2 fertilization" because it seems that at least some deserts are getting greener. It would be interesting to revisit this topic in say 10 years to see what has changed in the meantime. Are deserts becoming less green?

Plant growth requires sunlight, water, nutrients and CO2. It will be limited by whichever they run out of first. CO2 may be the limiting factor in some places.

[dohboi]

Good point, KM; one that can't be stated enough. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liebig%27s ... he_minimum

That being said, though, there are a very few places where both CO2 fertilization and (probably much more importantly) increases in rain fall will potentially bring more vegetation into areas previously very dry desert. The southern Sahara is the best opportunity for that. Of course, overgrazing and over harvesting of trees, etc, could easily wipe out any such gains. That's why the Greenbelt movement is so important in that area. And of course, the gains there will be offset by the fact that the Sahara will be (or rather is already) moving into Southern Europe.

[dohboi]

One consequence to Permanent Drying Out:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/0 ... l-warming/

Drying And Burning Wetlands Amplify Global Warming

[dohboi]

Moisture Shortfall, Heat Threaten Southwestern Forests

“Pinecone-littered forests draped over tens of millions of acres of mountaintops through the American Southwest are in danger of being scorched out of existence by global warming.

It’s not just rising heat that threatens to put a meteorological flamethrower to lush montane swaths of Arizona and New Mexico better known for low-altitude cacti and desert plains. A fire-wielding threat also comes from a rise in vapor pressure deficit, or VPD — a parching force linked to climate change that rises as heat increases or as humidity decreases.”

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/clim ... ires-18523

VPD is a new one on me.

[Keith_McClary]

Warming pushes Western US toward driest period in 1,000 years

During the second half of the 21st century, the U.S. Southwest and Great Plains will face persistent drought worse than anything seen in times ancient or modern, with the drying conditions "driven primarily" by human-induced global warming, a new study predicts.

Full text of paper:
Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

Abstract
In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing crucial targets in the paleoclimate record for benchmarking the severity of future drought risks. We use an empirical drought reconstruction and three soil moisture metrics from 17 state-of-the-art general circulation models to show that these models project significantly drier conditions in the later half of the 21st century compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This desiccation is consistent across most of the models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust drying response to warming despite the diversity of models and metrics analyzed. Notably, future drought risk will likely exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100–1300 CE) in both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) future emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium.

[dohboi]

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2015/02 ... s-for.html

Starved for energy, Pakistan braces for a water crisis – ‘In the next six to seven years, Pakistan can be a water-starved country’

Energy-starved Pakistanis, their economy battered by chronic fuel and electricity shortages, may soon have to contend with a new resource crisis: major water shortages, the Pakistani government warned this week.

A combination of global climate change and local waste and mismanagement have led to an alarmingly rapid depletion of Pakistan’s water supply, said the minister for water and energy, Khawaja Muhammad Asif.

“Under the present situation, in the next six to seven years, Pakistan can be a water-starved country,” Mr. Asif said in an interview, echoing a warning that he first issued at a news conference in Lahore this week.

[dohboi]

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/worl ... 355985.ece

Record drought sweeps across the Americas

[Newfie]

As I recall India controls the Indus head waters and has been threatening to divert resources.

This is an additional irritation to a couple that has not had a peaceful past, and are both nuclear club members.

Troublesome.

[Lore]

I thought this was a good article illustrating the hopeful.

5 reasons to panic about Arizona's water, and 5 reasons not to

IS ARIZONA REALLY RUNNING OUT OF WATER?

Here are five reasons why the drought should concern you and five more why we'll survive it — this time:

You should take this drought seriously because:

1. The drought is real.

Yes, Arizonans have been hearing about the drought for so long it has become background noise, but that's because the state has had below-normal rainfall levels for so long — all but a few years since 1999. If the monsoon can't recover, Phoenix could post one of its driest years on record, at least at the official Sky Harbor measuring station, which has collected just 0.06 inch since June 15. And things have been dry all across the West, from California to the remote peaks in Colorado, which means ...

2. The Colorado River is hurting.

It's true, rain in metro Phoenix doesn't do much for the water supply, because there's so little of it that most water is imported from elsewhere. But a lot of that water comes from the Colorado River, which is a source of water for 40 million people in seven states, including Arizona. And the Colorado has seen below-average runoff in all but three years since 2000. Lake Mead has fallen to its lowest level since it started filling in the 1930s. The other big reservoir on the river, Lake Powell, is half empty. If Lake Mead continues to shrink, current legal compacts lay out how much all seven states have to cut back on water use. Which leads to ...

3. When the Colorado shrinks, Arizona gets burned.

Here's how the deal among states works, in a nutshell: As Lake Mead gets lower, Arizona has to start cutting back on its take; so does Nevada, which agreed to share Arizona's pain. California gets to keep its whole share, for as long as there's enough water on the river. Wait, why does Arizona get such a raw deal? It goes way back to 1968 — Arizonans wanted to build the CAP Canal to take more water but needed California's congressional support. California agreed, as long as it got to keep the water when things got dicey. So yes, Arizona gets the short end on this deal. On the other hand, if the CAP Canal hadn't been built, Arizona wouldn't have been able to get much water out of the river anyway. The canal helped provide for a lot of new growth in Phoenix and Tucson. Some parts of town get water from reservoirs inside the state, but ...

4. In-state supplies are hurting.

Not everything comes from the Colorado — about half of the water supply for metro Phoenix comes from Roosevelt Lake and the Salt and Verde rivers, right? Well, things aren't much better there. Roosevelt, the largest in-state reservoir, is just 39 percent full. Together, the six reservoirs on the Salt and Verde are at 49 percent of capacity. (By the way, Flagstaff gets a significant share of its water from Lake Mary — it's shrinking, too, with no change in sight.) All of this means Salt River Project, which manages the system and delivers water to farmers and Valley cities, will likely start to pump more groundwater instead, as will farmers in central Arizona. And you can probably see where this is going ...

5. Groundwater supplies are shrinking at an alarming rate.

A new study by NASA and the University of California-Irvine found the Colorado River basin has lost 41 million acre-feet of groundwater since 2004. That's the equivalent of the entire amount of water in Lake Mead when it's full, plus half of another Lake Mead. Enough to supply the residential water needs of every person in America for one year. Gone. And it doesn't just come back. Scientists say states pumped from their aquifers to make up for dry years on the river. While one wet year can start to refill a reservoir, groundwater stores can take centuries to recover.

But wait. Don't panic. Arizona is not in the same beached boat as California, because:

1. You might not even notice the cutbacks at first.

If there is a shortage on the Colorado River, the first people to lose it are farmers in central Arizona. Their rights are lowest on the list.Homes and businesses in the three counties served by the CAP Canal (Maricopa, Pinal and Pima) get higher priority. Even under the worst case outlined in the drought plan, about 1 million acre-feet would continue to flow down the canal each year during the shortage, enough to provide what cities currently take from it. (That's as long as the river can supply that much water. If things get bad, biblically bad, the CAP would have to shut down. The only people with rights to the very last drops of Arizona's share are the farmers in Yuma — their rights are the most senior of all.)

2. We've been saving.

A whole lot of the Colorado River water Arizona has taken with the CAP Canal didn't actually get used — it was poured into underground water banks, sort of like simulating a recharged, natural aquifer. Since 1996, the state has stored about the equivalent of two full years of CAP water. Recovering the water wouldn't be cheap because it would require construction of wells that don't exist and would be a one-time fix in some areas, but it would buy time for drought conditions to ease.

3. We're getting better at using less.

Water demand leveled off as Arizona and the other states on the river dealt with the recession and downturn in housing. At the same time, requirements to build homes with low-flow plumbing and less landscaping reduced use in the newest developments.

4. We're getting better at making it last.

Arizona passed laws in 1980 to protect groundwater supplies in five areas. Since then, it has worked with neighboring states to use water more efficiently, building a reservoir west of Yuma to capture water unused by farmers. And the CAP joined water agencies in Colorado, Nevada and California this summer to provide incentives to cities, businesses and farmers to use less water.

5. We'd be better off if we got just ... one ... good ... year.

One above-average runoff year on the Colorado River or on the Salt and Verde rivers could buy Arizona more time to prepare for shortages. Reservoirs have briefly recovered some of their losses during the 15-year span; Roosevelt Lake can, in theory, refill in one wet year — that alone could mean a few extra years of supply.

Still, experts say the West needs to address its water-supply issues soon. Studies show that overall temperatures are rising. That means less snowpack or shorter runoff seasons. That means lower river flows. The groundwater study shocked many water agencies because it revealed huge losses. And it underscored the fact that the states have often drawn more water from the river than annual runoff can replenish.

So yes, Arizona is running out of water — just the way it was when it built the Central Arizona Project, the same way it was when it passed the groundwater-protection laws. It's highly unlikely that anything dramatic will change for most Arizonans in the next six years. There's a lot of water left out there. But only time and people's decisions will tell if it's enough.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/loc ... /13883605/

[Keith_McClary]

2. We've been saving.

A whole lot of the Colorado River water Arizona has taken with the CAP Canal didn't actually get used — it was poured into underground water banks, sort of like simulating a recharged, natural aquifer. Since 1996, the state has stored about the equivalent of two full years of CAP water. Recovering the water wouldn't be cheap because it would require construction of wells that don't exist and would be a one-time fix in some areas, but it would buy time for drought conditions to ease.

A guy who winters down there told me they pump this water by nuclear electric at public expense and dump it into shafts down to the aquifer. He thought that people with water rights could just pump it up for free. After reading the following, it seems more complicated:
http://www.azwater.gov/AzDWR/StatewideP ... Supply.htm

[dinopello]

Everything about water allocation in a desert gets complicated.

Burning lemon trees

YUMA –Smoke rising from groves of lemon trees offers one dramatic visual clue to Arizona's increasingly complex water future: Groves here are going fallow, for a price, to test how much moisture farmers could spare for urban development.

To date, the idea of tapping Yuma agriculture to supply suburban sprinklers around Phoenix is just a pilot project, to determine how much water can be saved; any attempt to start water actually flowing to central Arizona will require costly leases with willing sellers.

[Keith_McClary]

Everything about water allocation in a desert gets complicated.

Burning lemon trees

YUMA –Smoke rising from groves of lemon trees offers one dramatic visual clue to Arizona's increasingly complex water future: Groves here are going fallow, for a price, to test how much moisture farmers could spare for urban development.

To date, the idea of tapping Yuma agriculture to supply suburban sprinklers around Phoenix is just a pilot project, to determine how much water can be saved; any attempt to start water actually flowing to central Arizona will require costly leases with willing sellers.

Now the groundwater district is seeking 113,000 acre-feet of water over the coming century, according to a draft plan of operations that it must finalize and submit for state approval by year's end.
...
But nobody believes that water will do anything but escalate in price as Arizona grows, and some observers believe the district will have to raise at least several hundred million dollars for purchases in the coming century. The district says rates will rise, but it hasn't said by how much.

Hoover Dam cost $49,000,000 and Lake Mead holds 29,000,000 acre feet.