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Delay of Peak Oil?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 10:08:25

Your saying : if something cannot be created at a certain PT, then it can't exist at that certain PT.
Are you sure? I don't agree. You want me to give a counter example to your assertion or can you think of one yourself?

The paper describes how they made petroleum at 50kbar. Its very well wriiten. I've been reading it.


read the frigging paper you idiot. They could only create a small amount of longer chain hydrocarbons in a closed experiment at high pressure high temperature, at high temperature low pressure all that forms is methane. This is simple to anyone who understands the process of chemical bond dissociation. So even if a liquid hydrocarbon formed (which it wouldn't) as it rose up through the mantle and lower crust, temperature is still far above the stability range for liquid but pressure has dropped well below the point at which the paper indicates they could only create methane. I am getting very tired of explaining a very, very simple chemical phase relationship that you should have learned in high school.

Also it needs to be pointed out that the experiment uses a lump of limestone and heats it up under very high pressure. First of all there is no limestone existing in the mantle where these pressure occur, it was long melted and completely dissociated during the subduction phase. The experiment is at best ludicrous.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 10:16:44

Great summary of the situation as it has unfolded and exists currently for the US Oil Industry and the world. We have NO plan B. And have no time to make a wholesale transition to anything. Essentially, we have bought a little time with non conventional Oil. This is what we do as modern societies, we kick the can to extend our modern industrial civilization. Well, we have run out of extenders. Unconventional oil and gas which is difficult to access and energentically and monetarily expensive energy sources were never going to be the answer. Foolish is puttng it mildly.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 10:54:55

Unconventional oil and gas which is difficult to access and energentically and monetarily expensive energy sources were never going to be the answer.


I would argue that shale gas/oil is much easier to access than conventional offshore hydrocarbons or for that matter hydrocarbons in certain jurisdictions with above ground access issues (example: Libya). The only issue is obtaining lease rights through a royalty agreement that are pretty much standard rates across the various states nowadays. Also the breakeven cost for shales is much lower than that for conventional offshore oil and gas ($30 - $40/bbl versus $60 and higher).

Companies are pursuing the shale plays because they make the most economic/risk sense currently. As an example I can drill a horizontal several stage fracked well into one of the unconventional reservoirs with a greater than 90% chance of success and at D&C costs that are averaging in the $7 MM range. An offshore well can cost anywhere from $20 - $100 MM depending on water depth and location and the exploration chance of success is never greater than 50% due to the fact you are generally counting on seismic AVO (amplitude versus offset) as your risk limiter (which is hardly fail-proof). Of course if successful the offshore results in greater overall reserves but development costs are also steep.

The reason EV's haven't taken over or nuclear/wind/hydro energy haven't completely supplanted hydrocarbons is that there is still an economic advantage to hydrocarbons and there are still problems with a guarantee of supply in the case of other sources. That balance will change but to my mind, timing is very unpredictable.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby Revi » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 11:16:52

Good! I hope peak oil is delayed a while. Since I've lived on this death row for 20 years now, I am fine with delaying the execution. I really don't see how it's possible to extend it much more, but if I can get to retirement without the major repercussions hitting it would be nice. I intend to retire in 2 years and 4 months, but I think there will be a big depression by then, so what difference will it make if we hit peak oil?
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 11:37:14

onlooker wrote:We have NO plan B. And have no time to make a wholesale transition to anything.


That's where we differ. Shale has bought us time and while the whole world won't transition to EVs, we're on the cusp and that will, if nothing else, blunt any sort of supply shortfall that starts to creep up on us even just a few years from now.

Only a shark-fin like crash in oil supply would create the sort of TEOTWAWKI condition that the peak oil crowd has been praying for all this time.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 12:00:56

First off, I appreciate the toning down of the rhetoric. So, in the spirit of civil discourse, I would ask you Rockdoc the following questions:
First do you think a subsantial amount of sweet spots for Shale/Fracking still exist so that these productive wells/plays can continue lasting several years more?
Second, can the consumer economy handle the price range needed to exploit these Shale plays? And will the investment funds continue to be available to fund this endeavor?
Finally, is this economic reasoning going to allow for a viable transition to EV vehicles in mass once it is economically advantageous? These are all questions I ask in good faith, as you do have the expertise to answer Rockdoc.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 13:50:31

>They could only create a small amount of longer chain hydrocarbons in a closed experiment at high pressure high temperature
Of course What were you expecting? A gigaton of oil from 0.6cm^3 of ingredients? The experiment was not to try mass production of petroluem, but merely to demonstrate it was chemically possible at mantle conditions.

> at high temperature low pressure all that forms is methane
Fine by me. Abiotic oil doesn't require petroleum generation at low pressure. Your biogenic oil theory does though.


So even if a liquid hydrocarbon formed ... as it rose up through the mantle and lower crust, temperature is still far above the stability range for liquid but pressure has dropped well below the point at which the paper indicates they could only create methane.

Yes I gathered this is centrepiece in your objection to abiotic theory, the one you hang your hat on. And I think you are right - suddenly depressurized hot oil will decompose. Like a deep ocean fish shot with a 100 yard cannon into the vacuum of space, the shock of depressurization would crack it.
I expect this is what quite a few natural gas reserves are, abioitic petroleum that has depressized too quickly. So you win there, well done.

But, you are your own worst enemy. You totally telegraph your own worst fears. I learn from you about what's going in the Earth by discerning from your excited words what you are guarding against. And so this fixation you have for sudden depressurization tells me what is actually happening.
The 100 yard cannon is a poor analogy for how some mantle fluids upwell. Deep rocks are tight. Upwelling migration is slow. Under an upper crust oil bearing formation, thousands if not millions of small trickles of abiotic oil filter thru fractures in deep layer rocks over a wide area. This wide area and slow speed allow cooling by conduction to keep pace with pressure drop, enough that a significant amount of petroleum doesn't crack. Hence a nice pool of abiotic petroleum collects in the upper crust, or even makes it to the surface.
This is simple and intuitive behaviour such that abiotic theorists haven't felt the need to concentrate on it much. I guess if more biotic rockdocs cry about it, then someone will do experiments to demo it.
This paper outlines upper crust petroleum field creation in chapter 3.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 00270/full


there is no limestone existing in the mantle where these pressure occur, it was long melted and completely dissociated during the subduction phase.

You've no idea how tied up in geology myths you are. Your interpretation of geology is grounded in the idea that atomic elements and basic chemicals are created by biology, and then find their way slowly into the earth.
The reality is its the other way round. Limestone is a product of the mantle, just like petroleum. It's creation has absolutely nothing to do with biology. You have drawn wrong conclusions from minerals with animals and animal remains in them. Just as with footprints on the moon, the signature of biology in minerals doesn't mean it was made by biology. Its a dumb mistake to make, but i forgive u.

Subduction is bulshit too.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 14:59:13

First do you think a subsantial amount of sweet spots for Shale/Fracking still exist so that these productive wells/plays can continue lasting several years more?


I believe so, the reason I say this is that sweet spots are really defined by what works the best at a given price and technology level. Areas that don't classify as sweet spots right now could become sweet spots if prices rise for oil or if fracking technology improves. Remember that a lot of the areas are fairly rich in gas and current gas prices are in the tank. If natural gas were to rise to $4 - $5/Mcf then a lot of areas would become more attractive and those areas may have enough liquids to make a difference, they aren't being drilled now because of poor gas economics.

Second, can the consumer economy handle the price range needed to exploit these Shale plays? And will the investment funds continue to be available to fund this endeavor?


I always point back to the fact that $100/bbl oil for 3 years did not impede demand, it continued to increase so I don't see any current inability to afford oil. With regards to funds that is not a simple answer given the investment banks are driven by not just economics but also sentiment. When it seems the blush is off the rose with respect to oil they behave like a group of lemmings and all flock towards the next new thing (witness the flood of IPO's coming up with regards to cryptocurrency). I've heard them referred to as "a large group of magpies" flocking from shinny object to shinny object. At some point they migrate back to funding oil and gas but the timing is not always predictable. Companies can continue to drill within cashflow but growth will be slower. My view is it isn't the absolute maximum rate that should be considered (which is subject to rapid decline) but the sustainable rate (when all production is in the long exponential decline phase).

Finally, is this economic reasoning going to allow for a viable transition to EV vehicles in mass once it is economically advantageous


I think we are already seeing a movement in that direction. A big change this year I believe is that the big companies are all coming up with EV's that look very mainstream and have distance performance that is acceptable and a price point that isn't completely out of touch for most people. I note that Jaguar as an example now has a small SUV that is full EV with distance on a charge of close to 300 km (I think) and a price that isn't much different than its ICE twin. Most of the big guys (Nissan, Range Rover etc) are all coming out with their own versions. For many folks AWD is perhaps not a necessity but definitely a big want to have so I see this as upping the potential market penetration of EV's. I still see the change over to EV's as being a very gradual process. But as more and more EV's come into the market there will be less demand for hydrocarbons which helps alleviate concerns about running out or pricing it out of the market. I see a gentle transition and actually believe you will still see some ICE's running around 50 years out. There will always be some place where ICE's make more sense than EV's I believe.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 15:37:24

Yes I gathered this is centrepiece in your objection to abiotic theory, the one you hang your hat on. And I think you are right - suddenly depressurized hot oil will decompose. Like a deep ocean fish shot with a 100 yard cannon into the vacuum of space, the shock of depressurization would crack it.
I expect this is what quite a few natural gas reserves are, abioitic petroleum that has depressized too quickly. So you win there, well done.


As I have stated numerous times you need to learn some basic chemistry. You behave like someone with a grade 5 education who suddenly thinks he has a better understanding of how the world works, all based on his reading of the full selection of Dr Suess books. The oil cracks at depth due to temperature and time, the control on whether the organic bounds are broken are mainly temperature driven. All pressure has to do with this ridiculous argument is the claim that those authors made that they created long chain hydrocarbons at high pressure and high temperature. The point is those high pressures do not exist in the crust and the experiments failed to create long chain hydrocarbons at high temperature and lower pressure. Hence the entire frigging argument is completely invalid. What is it you do not understand about this?

Upwelling migration is slow. Under an upper crust oil bearing formation, thousands if not millions of small trickles of abiotic oil filter thru fractures in deep layer rocks over a wide area. This wide area and slow speed allow cooling by conduction to keep pace with pressure drop, enough that a significant amount of petroleum doesn't crack.


That is the dumbest thing yet. At depth you cannot keep fluids at temperatures that are any different than the surrounding rock. It is possible that a fluid injected into a pore space from depth can be hotter than the surrounding rock but that is very temporary.. But it is impossible for fluid to be colder than the surrounding rock for any appreciable length of time. This is called thermal equilibrium. At the base of the crust the temperature of all rocks is in the order of 1000 C and oil is pretty much all cracked to methane by about 160 C. Please come up with some ridiculous method of cooling by 840 C….it doesn’t happen, it is completely impossible. To suggest otherwise is basically stupid. We have literally thousands of wells drilled to considerable depths around the world that tell us the temperature of fluids and rock which are always consistent with depth lithology and geothermal gradient in a particular area.

The reality is its the other way round. Limestone is a product of the mantle, just like petroleum. Its creation has absolutely nothing to do with biology. You have drawn wrong conclusions from minerals with animals and animal remains in them. Just as with footprints on the moon, the signature of biology in minerals doesn't mean it was made by biology. Its a dumb mistake to make, but i forgive u.

Subduction is bulshit too.


What a frigging joke. If you think to be taken seriously by bringing up Crank theories that absolutely no scientist working in either geology or chemistry or physics would even contemplate for a few seconds then you are truly delusional. Limestone is a rock composed of Calcium and Carbonate ion. It melts completely at 825 C into CO2 gas and CaO. IN the mantle where temperatures exceed 3500 C limestone cannot exist. It is formed in the oceans mainly from skeletal fragments of marine fauna such as corals, foraminifera, shell fish etc. How do we know that? We can see the remains in limestone with the naked eye let alone with a microscope. The remainder of limestone is formed via chemical precipitation from warm waters and we can recreate that process in the laboratory. Not sure why you keep wanting to make yourself look like a complete fool. If that is, however, your intent then you are doing a good job.
IN short you are not a scientist, you are not a deep thinker. You are completely delusional if you think you are winning any argument….you have said nothing here that has made the least bit of sense and completely flies in the face of decades if not centuries of scientific knowledge. I suggest you do some basic introduction reading in Chemistry, Physics, Geology and Geophysics before you post any more nonsense here. You are wasting everyone's time.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 16:39:50

Thanks Rockdoc for those answers
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 18:06:29

The oil cracks at depth due to temperature and time
time

Hang on. You're a geo. When you say time, do you mean seconds, days, years, thousands of years or millions of years? If the time scale for cracking was helpful to your argument you would have shoved it down my throat by now.
It looks to me like the time it takes to cool petroleum to a stable temperature is shorter than the time it takes to crack petroleum.
So I'll go back to rapid migration of oil from the mantle to the upper crust. Sure its hot, sure a significant amount will crack. But it'll cool in time that they'll be some left over to form a reservoir.
What you think to that idea huh? Out foxed u there.

I'll keep my mind open to other possibilities though. Perhaps the upper crust manages to contain mantle pressures long enough for petroleum to cool. Perhaps the petroleum cools before in reaches the crust in a temperature anomaly. It can be my project this year. I'd like to know, cos I intend to write a book on it and i want to get my facts right. I'll report on this forum at next years IEA oil production thread.

Limestone is a rock composed of Calcium and Carbonate ion. It melts completely at 825 C into CO2 gas and CaO. IN the mantle where temperatures exceed 3500 C limestone cannot exist.

Whatever. The limestone in the experiment was allowed to transform into its mantle form, and petroleum was created from it. The mantle doesn't care what minerals Calcium Oxygen and Carbon form on the surface.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 21:12:05

So I'll go back to rapid migration of oil from the mantle to the upper crust. Sure its hot, sure a significant amount will crack. But it'll cool in time that they'll be some left over to form a reservoir.
What you think to that idea huh? Out foxed u there.


are you actually this stupid....at 160 C oil cracks no matter what time it has been there, time only comes into play when you are looking at lower temperatures over a very, very long time (millions of years), you are suggesting some liquid which couldn't have formed in the mantle in the first place somehow travels through rocks and magma at temperatures between 1000 C and 3000 C and doesn't convert to gas. This is what is called magic thinking, also called incredibly stupid.

Perhaps the upper crust manages to contain mantle pressures long enough for petroleum to cool. Perhaps the petroleum cools before in reaches the crust in a temperature anomaly. It can be my project this year. I'd like to know, cos I intend to write a book on it and i want to get my facts right. I'll report on this forum at next years IEA oil production thread.


God you are a moron. "Hey look everyone, I wrote a book about a subject I have virtually no understanding about....aren't I smart". :roll: The fact that you are reveling in your own stupidity is alarming and tragic at the same time.

Whatever. The limestone in the experiment was allowed to transform into its mantle form, and petroleum was created from it. The mantle doesn't care what minerals Calcium Oxygen and Carbon form on the surface.


NO it wasn't. It is a contained vessel, quite small in fact. So whatever species melt cannot move around. The extreme pressure keeps bonds from breaking. IN an open system where any vestige of limestone is completely gone this can't happen. It is impossible. Use what little brain you have to reason this through.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 21:21:14

peakoilwhen wrote: Limestone is a rock composed of Calcium and Carbonate ion. It melts completely at 825 C into CO2 gas and CaO. IN the mantle where temperatures exceed 3500 C limestone cannot exist.

Whatever.


Not whatever. That geologic ignorance of yours is getting in the way. That and some basic physics. I warned you to pick up a geochemistry book and try not to be one of P.T. Barnum's suckers, but you wouldn't listen.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 04:50:50

> IN an open system where any vestige of limestone is completely gone this can't happen. It is impossible.
Yeah, like you'd know cos you've spent the last 10 years doing mantle condition experiments. Not. You are no better than anyone in that you have no experience or theory of mantle chemistry.
Kenney's experiment was one of several that made it apparent that petroleum creation in the mantle was plausible. If all you've got to complain about is the ingredients weren't in the correct form then that's lame. It is striking that these substances when thrown together at the right temperature and pressure spontaneously create petroleum. Your dismissive and hostile attitude to the experiment suggests any mix of substances thrown slapdash into the saucepan at any pressure or temperature in the school classroom or amateur's garage will create petroleum, or that the experiment conditions were too contrived and bore no resemblance to reality, either extreme as long as you can ridicule it.

But the experiment used common light elements and iron typical of the crust. Your attitude betrays that you are running scared of the truth - the mantle creates the world's mineral hydrocarbons, coal oil and gas.

I don't doubt you were good in your day, but today you are out of touch with modern geo chemistry, it has moved on while u reminisce about the biotic glory days in an echo chamber full of doomers where you can preside as lord. Shooting a messenger who brings news from reality won't turn back the clock. Kenney's paper is popular, both in reading and citations, geochemistry is abuzz with abiotic and mantle genesis of hydrocarbons.
I admit I'm not sure of the details of getting petroleum from the mantle to the crust. So your words here have not been in vain, it is something I'll look into. But I wouldn't be surprised if the problem is minor, I don't trust your reason, you are zealous rather than rational in opposing abiotic theory - you'll inflate any perceived uncertainty in the model to the status of 'conclusive refutation'.

ok. there's not much more to learn from you in this line of enquiry, and given you find our exchanges so stressful, I'll leave you in peace until next year. Enjoy your retirement pad with all these doomer kids learning to act like you do - throwing insults at anyone who questions isla-- i mean biotic theory.

nearly 100 million barrels a day and still rising. Its a contradiction that everyone here is supposed to be acutely aware of necessity of peakoil in the biotic model, yet every year reality defies theory as the earth yields oil far beyond biotic estimates of the past, and you've learnt to ignore the disparity at the centre of your religion. I repeat, I hope 2018 world production is less than 2017, because it will reignite the fun flame of hysteria that this place has lacked the last few years.

bye for now :)
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 10:52:51

Some people should be nurtured, because their presence is a net benefit to others.

Some people should mostly be left alone, and slapped up the side of the head when they stray from the path.

Others should be hunted down and exterminated for the benefit of all creatures everywhere.

I'm not passing judgement upon anyone, and we don't need a discussion of this topic. But each of us gets to decide who belongs in each category.
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Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 17:14:44

Revi wrote:Good! I hope peak oil is delayed a while.


But Revi! You love it!! Why would you want your love to be unrequited?

Wouldn't it just be better to accept that it happened a decade ago, right on schedule, and then you can go to bed each night happy that peak oil slammed into the world, and while it didn't bother anyone, it happened, and you can be happy for it!

Revi wrote:Since I've lived on this death row for 20 years now, I am fine with delaying the execution. I really don't see how it's possible to extend it much more, but if I can get to retirement without the major repercussions hitting it would be nice. I intend to retire in 2 years and 4 months, but I think there will be a big depression by then, so what difference will it make if we hit peak oil?


How many decades have you been waiting for that depression Revi? As long as you've been living POST peak oil now?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 17:18:52

peakoilwhen wrote:bye for now :)


Thank GOD.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 21:05:47

CrockDoc actually believes that replacing a hard currency (oil from a proper well) with electricity can somehow resolve this:

Image

Are all these overpopulated Banana Republics somehow going to export their way out of certain poverty in a post carbon economy?

Example: How does Saudi Arabia import food and goods without cheap oil?
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 21:12:06

Revi wrote:Good! I hope peak oil is delayed a while. Since I've lived on this death row for 20 years now, I am fine with delaying the execution. I really don't see how it's possible to extend it much more, but if I can get to retirement without the major repercussions hitting it would be nice. I intend to retire in 2 years and 4 months, but I think there will be a big depression by then, so what difference will it make if we hit peak oil?


Revi, once the Steep Terminal Decline (STD) of Conventional Oil begins by 2023, you are as good as dead.

Read between the lines in Crockdocs insane ramblings:

"We're Dumbed down factory slum drillers surely going out of business by 2023. We can't do offshore because the currency is worthless and Offshore isn't self funding because we don't believe in expertise because of 40 years of financializations"...His post reads like a Suicide Note.

Shale is like a Himalyan mountaineer who has run out of gas to melt snow for drinking water. The snow is everywhere but its not possible to sustain oneself by eating the snow.
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 21:18:12

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:We have NO plan B. And have no time to make a wholesale transition to anything.


That's where we differ. Shale has bought us time and while the whole world won't transition to EVs, we're on the cusp and that will, if nothing else, blunt any sort of supply shortfall that starts to creep up on us even just a few years from now.

Only a shark-fin like crash in oil supply would create the sort of TEOTWAWKI condition that the peak oil crowd has been praying for all this time.


The lights are about to go off in many different places (ex UK, Australlia, parts of USA, etc) because they cannot afford to import LNG. Many angry citizens are already voting da renewable bums out of office because their electricity bill doubled because the NG turbines are always sitting idle.

Windmills and NG cannot coexist.

Yet this fool believes the freeloading EV bullshit is financially viable.
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