[vtsnowedin]

Then in the next 8-9 years, I suspect the ANWR will finally get opened to drilling, especially if the Republicans get the Presidency next election and also have the majority in Congress.

Well that is certainly possible but I'm not too concerned about it. The longer they wait on drilling out ANWR the more valuable the oil will be. Better to let the last of the KSA oil go out the tailpipe of Americas cars before we tap into ANWR.

[ROCKMAN]

vt - That's such a harsh and expensive climate to deal with I'm hesitant to make any prediction. I've only done a little bit of drilling in cold weather Wyoming. And that took longer and costs a lot more. And Alaska has to be much worse on both counts. A successful well we might party all weekend long over in Texas might be plugged and abandoned up there without a second thought.

[Alaska_geo]

I am curious to know why production peaks in Winter and declines in Summer. Can someone enlighten me?

I read somewhere that Summer in Alaska is the best time to perform necessary maintenance, upgrades and repairs, so flow rate through the TAPS from the N. Slope is reduced. So I guess they fill some tank farms upstream of the maintenance areas and then open the TAPS during Winter.

Hi All. I've been very busy for awhile and am just getting back into posting on this forum.

Regarding why Alaska production peaks in winter, summer maintenance does play a part. However the biggest reason is that Prudhoe, still the biggest producer on the N Slope, produces a lot of gas. Most wells in the field have a very high GOR. (An engineer friend once quipped that these days "the typical well in Prudhoe is a gas well that also produces some oil".) Virtually all of that gas is re-injected into the reservoir to maintain pressure. Gas compressors work a lot more efficiently at minus 20 F than they do in the summer. Hence there is more gas handling capacity in the winter, and therefore oil production is higher.

There are indeed large tanks at Prudhoe, and also at the tanker terminal in Valdez. This gives a cushion at both ends of TAPS to balance tanker loading at Valdez, and also permits occasional short shutdowns of TAPS for maintenance.

[Alaska_geo]

Then in the next 8-9 years, I suspect the ANWR will finally get opened to drilling, especially if the Republicans get the Presidency next election and also have the majority in Congress.

Well that is certainly possible but I'm not too concerned about it. The longer they wait on drilling out ANWR the more valuable the oil will be. Better to let the last of the KSA oil go out the tailpipe of Americas cars before we tap into ANWR.

Don't hold your breath about opening ANWR. Remember that in the past, when the Repubs were in control it still wasn't opened.

In any case, you are making the assumption that there is a large amount of oil in ANWR. While there is certainly some oil in ANWR, there may well not be enough to warrant development. Unfortunately ANWR has been so hyped over the years, from folks on both sides of the argument, that most people have lost site of the fact that it is still only an exploration play. In Alaska the economic bar is set very high for developing an oil field.

[rockdoc123]

exactly Alaska_geo. I seem to remember some very, very expensive wells drilled in the area. Tight sands, lots of oil but access was by ice roads and limited to a few months a year. Exploration costs are huge and abandonment costs are not small. You need a very large field to be economic at the $80/bbl range (one of the companies I was with estimated 400 MMB) unless someone were to build all-weather roads....likely a no no in ANWR.

If there was an obvious porous reef anomaly on seismic (unlikely in this geology) or anticipation of some very porous deltaic sandstones here I suspect there would have been a bigger lobby to develop the area. The predictive geology doesn't fit that I'm afraid. Tough and limited access plus crappy reservoir equals not a lot of attention to my mind. But of course someone always has an idea that is different which is what makes this business so interesting.

[vtsnowedin]

I don't know a thing about the geology in and under ANWAR but I do know that the day a tanker pulls up to the loading buoy at KSA and the guy tells them they have to wait because all the tanks are empty the price will go up and as hard as it might be to squeeze oil out of ANWAR we will fully develop every plausible potential there.

[PeakOiler]

Thanks for your explanations for the reason oil production is higher in winter, Alaska_geo.

And for the record, I would prefer that the ANWR doesn't get drilled. I just think it's a matter of time.

[PeakOiler]

Below is the chart using EIA data through April, 2015:



I noted the production pattern in the chart is similar to last year y-o-y, except at a lower level. Any other players this year on guessing the annual low production rate?

[PeakOiler]

Updated chart with data through May:



May production was reported as 453k bpd.

What?! No other players in our little game of doom? Looks like it's just between vtsnowedin and I.

Again, any other guesses for this year's low monthly rate?

So far:
vtsnowedin: 340
PeakOiler: 367

[TheDude]

Warming speeds 'world's slowest moving landslides' - BBC News

Researchers told BBC News that the geological features, known as frozen debris lobes, are now threatening a major highway.
The warming climate is said to have hastened some of the rocky fingers to a heady speed of five metres a year.
Engineers believe that either moving the roadway or freezing the ground may be effective solutions.

The scientists say there are over 23 such lobes within 2km uphill of the Dalton Highway, one of the most important roads in Alaska.
It links Fairbanks in the centre of the state to the Arctic shore on the north coast. The critically important Trans-Alaskan oil pipeline sits right beside it.

EIA has NS production sticking to the long tail profile of the last 5 years, no drastic falloffs like happened in the 90s. Perhaps this era of low prices we are currently in will impact Alaska production more. Alaska North Slope Crude Oil Production

Code: Select all

  2014   524   498   513   520   507   468   404   380   458   480   498   500
  2015   486   474   492   490   453   428   431   390   455         

[PeakOiler]

What good is the long tail if it is frozen tight in an abandoned pipeline?

Above there was at least one link to article(s) that some changes in the production procedures included adding more heaters to parts of the pipeline as well as separating more of the water from the oil before it goes into the TAPS. That 300 kbpd red line in the chart above may need to be raised a bit. The red line indicates an estimate of when the flow rate through the TAPS could come to a grinding halt.

I'll post an updated chart soon.

But if the TAPS is threatened by the earth itself, forcing major re-routes of the TAPS sometime in the future, (as The Dude pointed out above), it may be more economic to eventually ship the oil by sea. ??? (Less ice, right?)

[Tanada]

What good is the long tail if it is frozen tight in an abandoned pipeline?

Above there was at least one link to article(s) that some changes in the production procedures included adding more heaters to parts of the pipeline as well as separating more of the water from the oil before it goes into the TAPS. That 300 kbpd red line in the chart above may need to be raised a bit. The red line indicates an estimate of when the flow rate through the TAPS could come to a grinding halt.

I'll post an updated chart soon.

But if the TAPS is threatened by the earth itself, forcing major re-routes of the TAPS sometime in the future, (as The Dude pointed out above), it may be more economic to eventually ship the oil by sea. ??? (Less ice, right?)

You might go the sea route it seems to work okay for the Russians, but I suspect the rail and tanker route is more likely as it gives more fine control for the big investors.

[vtsnowedin]

Somewhere along the line here I recall that all of the natural gas that has come up in the North slope has been pumped back under ground to help pressurize the wells and not waste it by flaring it off. So when the oil flow becomes un economic will they convert the TAPS to a gas pipeline and pressurize it into LNG at Valdize for the world market? By that time we will have sucked all the NG out of the North slope and oil prices should be high enough to develop any remaining reserves on the North slope with little regard to caribou herd numbers.

[Subjectivist]

Somewhere along the line here I recall that all of the natural gas that has come up in the North slope has been pumped back under ground to help pressurize the wells and not waste it by flaring it off. So when the oil flow becomes un economic will they convert the TAPS to a gas pipeline and pressurize it into LNG at Valdize for the world market? By that time we will have sucked all the NG out of the North slope and oil prices should be high enough to develop any remaining reserves on the North slope with little regard to caribou herd numbers.

How much would it cost to replace the existing pipe with a smaller but more heavily insulated pipe with say 500,000 bbl/d capacity? Clearly 2,000,000 is excessive for the remaining oil yet to be extracted.

[PeakOiler]

Here's an updated graph with data through Sept., 2015:



How's the Dalton highway doing these days? It must be mostly repaired after the floods in 2013 and again earlier this year. I may browse the web for some news.

vtsnowedin: I think we may have seen the minimum rate for the year. Too bad there is about a 1/4 year time lag in the EIA data. We won't see the December 2015 number until March or April, 2016.

[PeakOiler]

Here's an update on the Dalton highway relief efforts, just released earlier this month:

ktuu article

There is a slide show.

[ROCKMAN]

Or as one of the responders to the story wrote: "This is why we need a change in Washington people. YOU keep paying for people who choose not to have insurance....If people choose to live beside a river that floods every year, then they need to move or get insurance. It is not the responsibility of the Federal tax payer to pay for people who ignore the truths of the places they choose to live."