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Declining Production in Alaska

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 16 Jul 2014, 19:45:05

TheDude wrote:Looking for more news on TAPS we find that a literally more mundane issue might play havoc with the line - and with NS operations in general: Sliding mass threatens pipeline, Dalton Highway - Fairbanks Daily News-Miner: Local News


Uh oh. That is a huge problem...or should I say "challenge"?
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Fri 18 Jul 2014, 03:14:44

TheDude wrote:Check out the links in the comments - you can really see the slide coming down the mountains, especially on LIDAR.

http://maps.dggs.alaska.gov/lidar/#-166 ... 0390499:14
When they first noticed the debris lobes coming down out of the mountains, crews thought the masses of earth were dormant, no-longer moving leftovers of some past geologic event.
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby agramante » Sat 19 Jul 2014, 18:30:59

Possible, Keith, though this phenomenon of slowly-moving ground is fairly common in glaciated or even fairly-recently-glaciated areas--basically, anywhere there's a mass of frozen unconsolidated sediment. Global warming certainly helps account for the mobilization of the sediment, but slumps and other grain flows occur constantly, all over the world. I'll say this: this slow-moving slump is consistent with global warming.
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sun 03 Aug 2014, 12:52:58

EIA reported on July 31 that Alaska's North Slope production dropped to 507 kbpd in May. I'll post another graph in about a month when the June data are released.
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby PeakOiler » Tue 02 Sep 2014, 18:37:18

Here's the updated graph with data through June:

Image

Ouch. Big drop.

Next update in a couple of of months.
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 04 Sep 2014, 20:07:24

I came across this article:
Alaska Journal of Commerce

What Should Alaskans Look For?

Getting new oil into the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System is the most important thing. Alaskans should also closely watch how the new tax performs in terms of revenue.


There are three new North Slope products up for approval.

These include two on the Kuparuk River field, Drill Site 2S, a new production pad in the south part of the Kuparuk field, and the North East West Sak, or NEWS, a project to expand the existing West Sak viscous oil project in the Kuparuk field.

Assuming the NEWS project is given a go-ahead, it is expected to produce 9,000 barrels per day with a startup in 2017.


ConocoPhillips did preliminary gravel placement for the DS 2S project last winter but final development must be approved by the company’s board. It is expected to begin production in 2016, with a peak of 8,000 barrels per day.

The third project is Greater Moose’s Tooth 1, or GMT-1, ConocoPhillips’ planned new oil project in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska. A federal supplemental environmental impact statement being prepared by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management is due to be finalized later this year. GMT-1 is expected to produce 30,000 barrels per day.

With new production from these three projects laid over the existing fields’ output, and accounting for some decline in the existing fields, ConocoPhillips said that it expects to add 40,000 barrels per day of new production to its North Slope production by 2018.


We'll see what happens...
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby PeakOiler » Tue 30 Sep 2014, 06:14:10

EIA reported the North Slope oil production dropped to 404 kbpd in July.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm

My guess of 425 kbpd earlier in this thread for the minimum output for the year was too high. I'll post another graph next month.
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 30 Oct 2014, 19:40:15

Here's the updated graph:

Image

The data are through August, 2014. N. Slope production was 380 kbpd,the lowest output in a long time.

Edit: I just checked the EIA's spreadsheet, and 380 is actually the lowest ever!
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby Gordianus » Fri 31 Oct 2014, 12:38:47

I am curious to know why production peaks in Winter and declines in Summer. Can someone enlighten me?
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby PeakOiler » Fri 31 Oct 2014, 12:57:09

Gordianus wrote:I am curious to know why production peaks in Winter and declines in Summer. Can someone enlighten me?


I read somewhere that Summer in Alaska is the best time to perform necessary maintenance, upgrades and repairs, so flow rate through the TAPS from the N. Slope is reduced. So I guess they fill some tank farms upstream of the maintenance areas and then open the TAPS during Winter.
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 16 Nov 2014, 11:19:26

I don't see what is the big deal about Alaska oil and natural gas production given that Alaska never had that much oil and natural gas to begin with. ANWR only has a 6 to 12 month supply of oil for the USA.
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 16 Nov 2014, 12:56:39

don't see what is the big deal about Alaska oil and natural gas production given that Alaska never had that much oil and natural gas to begin with.


Incorrect. Prudhoe Bay was the largest single oil field in the US and as large as some of the bigger oil fields in the Middle East (eg. Rumaila)
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sat 31 Jan 2015, 08:04:25

Here's the updated chart. The EIA data are through November, 2014:

Image

It's just about up to the annual top of the hill.

btw, looks like vtsnowedin guessed closest with 375 kbpd to last year's minimum of 380 kbpd. I had guessed the minimum to be 425 kbpd.
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sat 31 Jan 2015, 09:19:40

I read recently that the government of alaska was running a deficit and they had a 3 year nest egg to milk. The Inuits will have the land back to themselves before too long is my guess.
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 13 Apr 2015, 19:28:13

Well, the annual decline has begun, according to the EIA data through January, 2015:

Image

Anyone care to make a guess how low it will go this year?

Looks like the red line will be reached in 3-6 years.
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 13 Apr 2015, 19:43:19

Alaska road to oilfield operations opens for limited traffic
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSK ... 2?irpc=932

JUNEAU, Alaska (Reuters) - Alaska’s lone road to North Slope oilfield operations reopened on Sunday to limited traffic after flooding from an adjacent river shut it down for nearly a week, state transportation officials said.

Thirty trucks carrying what they deem critical loads are allowed to travel north on the Dalton Highway to Deadhorse, the base of operations for several oilfields that produce more than half a million barrels of crude oil daily, the officials said.

Additionally, another 30 vehicles can travel south from Deadhorse, then work crews will assess the road’s stability and the prospects for further travel, according to a transportation department statement.

The 15-mile (24-km) stretch had been closed for one week while dozens of emergency crews operating road equipment worked to divert the flooding from the Sagavanirktok River and fortify road sections.

"Everyone involved recognized the importance of the situation, and they rose to the challenge," said Marc Luiken, commissioner for the state’s Department of Transportation and Public Utilities.

This stretch features ice accumulation plus the flooding, state officials said. The road closure had not affected production levels, officials from operating companies said.

State transportation officials said crews have been grappling with winter conditions – sub-zero temperatures, blowing snow and high winds – all week.

Once warmer temperatures arrive, melting snow and ice could produce more flooding and instability, according to the statement.
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 14 Apr 2015, 05:59:28

btw, looks like vtsnowedin guessed closest with 375 kbpd to last year's minimum of 380 kbpd. I had guessed the minimum to be 425 kbpd.

:-D
My this years guess is 340. can we assume that the decline in Alaska is in spite of them doing everything feasible in the way of re drilling and fracking wells to keep production up?
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 14 Apr 2015, 08:17:07

News from Alaska: "Fracking takes place regularly on about 20 percent of CONVENTIONAL wells in Alaska, according to EnergyWire in January 2013. Alaska's North Slope region has been estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey to contain up to 2 billion barrels of oil and 80 trillion cubic feet of gas -- second in shale oil only to the Bakken formation in North Dakota. But the agency has admitted that the figures are uncertain, as the region's shale rock is untested. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey released an assessment estimating that Alaska’s North Slope shales may hold as much as 80 trillion cubic feet of shale gas, and as much as 2 billion barrels of tight oil. The report noted that high development costs and limited infrastructure have prevented companies from producing shale resources in Alaska, although Great Bear Petroleum, Halliburton, and Royale Energy began exploring for tight oil shortly after the 2012 assessment release, thanks in part to the state's exploration tax credits. Great Bear Petroleum bought 500,000 acres of northern Alaska state land in 2010, hoping to produce 200,000 barrels of crude per day by 2020 (as well as natural gas liquids), shipped via the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. Fracking may begin in winter 2013. The gas resources, unlike the tight oil resources, will likely not be developed without a massive gas pipeline from the remote North Slope to transport it".

From their own website Great Bear may have a bit of difficulty hitting that 200,000 bopd target:

The 2012 wells, aimed at testing the shales, were drilled in the summer on gravel extensions built on the Dalton Highway, an all-year gravel road that extends south of Prudhoe Bay to Interior Alaska. That drilling was primarily to extract core samples from the shale for analysis, although the company hoped at the time to drill one horizontal segment for a production test. That was not done, however. Great Bear still considered the drilling successful because valuable data was obtained. “The samples met or exceeded our expectations in terms of organic compounds (of hydrocarbons) and the right thermal maturity, which meant the rocks were prone to the formation of oil rather than, say, for natural gas,” Galvin said. The 2012 well results also showed a substantial presence of conventional oil prospects on Great Bear’s leases, which has now been affirmed by 3-D seismic testing the company did in 2013 and 2014. This has caused Great Bear to shift its plan to focus first on conventional oil, the hopes being that this will help pay the costs for a long-term evaluation and development of the shale oil resource, Galvin said.

{So no meaningful amount of oil production yet but they have succeeded in getting some fundamental data. Data that apparently indicates to them that the Alaskan shales are off the table at the moment. And that was their conclusion before the oil price collapse}
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 14 Apr 2015, 08:31:15

ROCKMAN wrote:News from Alaska:
{So no meaningful amount of oil production yet but they have succeeded in getting some fundamental data. Data that apparently indicates to them that the Alaskan shales are off the table at the moment. And that was their conclusion before the oil price collapse}

Thanks Rock. So at some future time and higher price they will go ahead but not before easier to access supplies down south are used up?
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Re: Declining Production in Alaska

Unread postby PeakOiler » Tue 14 Apr 2015, 19:11:02

vtsnowedin wrote:
btw, looks like vtsnowedin guessed closest with 375 kbpd to last year's minimum of 380 kbpd. I had guessed the minimum to be 425 kbpd.

:-D
My this years guess is 340. can we assume that the decline in Alaska is in spite of them doing everything feasible in the way of re drilling and fracking wells to keep production up?


I think my guess will be a little more optimistic, for reasons given upthread: More tax incentives, more heaters on the TAPS, removing more water from the oil before it gets into the TAPS, and more fracking. I'll go with 367 kbpd this year as the minimum.

Then in the next 8-9 years, I suspect the ANWR will finally get opened to drilling, especially if the Republicans get the Presidency next election and also have the majority in Congress.
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