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Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and die

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and die

Unread postby misterno » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 10:54:46

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

Long time due. Where have you been China?

They had to this decades ago. With Chinese Government help, I can not wait for Chinese to come up with a better technology than Tesla.
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 11:11:11

There's a graphic example of the differences between a democracy and a communist state: any politician announcing such an intent here in the USA would be out of a job. But understand that this one compliment does not mean I at all approve of such states - Venezuela being the latest example of why socialism just does not work.

Don't get me wrong, I think this is the right move, and one that needs to happen world wide within the coming decade. But the Democracies won't be the first countries to obsolete petroleum fuels.

This needs to happen and new vehicles should all be BEVs, or fuelled with LNG, CNG, or alcohols. The demand for gasoline and diesel would still continue for decades, and the liquid petroleum fuel demand would taper off as the existing vehicles get retired, more or less matching the dwindling supplies.
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby Cog » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 12:26:16

LOL China has zero intent to move away from oil. Their deals, acquisitions, and desire for hegemony over the South China sea tell a whole different story. China means to have oil even if it involves war with another super-power.
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 12:38:38

China are playing the long game, they want to ensure there is a supply for the indefinite future, getting rid of petrol & diesel cars leaves plenty of oil for heavy industry & commercial vehicles that don't have a realistic of going electric in the near future.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 12:40:34

Right now this amounts to nothing--- just like China's agreement with Obama to fight Climate Change made at the bilateral Beijing meeting in 2014 and China's signing on to the Paris Climate meeting in 2015.

When you get past the hoopla the pledges amount to nothing. In fact, China in the 2014 China pledged to continue business as usual, and in 2015 pledged at the Paris Climate Meeting to INCREASE their CO2 emissions.

Think of it this way----how is China going to meet their 2014 agreement wit Obama to continue business as usual and their 2015 Paris Accords pledge to INCREASE CO2 emissions if they REDUCE fossil fuel use? It does't make any sense.....

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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 13:03:58

dolanbaker wrote:China are playing the long game, they want to ensure there is a supply for the indefinite future, getting rid of petrol & diesel cars leaves plenty of oil for heavy industry & commercial vehicles that don't have a realistic of going electric in the near future.

Which of course would seem to be the obvious and prudent strategy for any major country like, say, the US.

Too bad the voters can't look ahead a few years and sacrifice a bit for the future -- even the vast majority of those who CLAIM to be green (re the resistance to a CO2 tax or a meaningfully greener lifestyle -- when it comes down to actions like voting and spending, instead of talking).
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby GASMON » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 13:10:58

Better change this site's name to Peak Lithium and Rare Earths dot com !!!!!

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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 13:40:17

GASMON wrote:Better change this site's name to Peak Lithium and Rare Earths dot com !!!!!
Gas

Seriously, considering the overall subject matter, and how the discussion activity correlates over time to real world news and trends -- a more realistic (and probably much more broadly appealing) title would be along the lines of intelligent or prudent use of global resources in a time of unrelenting BAU growth and long term unsustainability. And no, that's NOT a title suggestion, that's a stab at some of the big issues).

Of course, with the main body of posters here, you'd NEVER reach consensus on a title, much less what it should say or include.

But yes, with trends like green energy, battery technology, oil fracking and its impacts, AGW and its impacts, etc. etc. -- I don't think any narrow topic like peak oil (or anything else) reflects what this site is about.

Does it matter? Not in the short run, but likely in the longer run if the goal is to have the site grow substantially. (Just my opinion, of course).
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 18:38:49

Put aside a moment the long term challenge to execute the total phase out of petrol cars and look instead toward the symbolism of this announcement. It represents a great leap forward, far ahead of feasibility and scale but it anchors a meme in the minds of the world about the seriousness to transition to clean energy. As Dolanbaker pointed out China is using a long term strategy. But at the same time a short term strategy perhaps more important. Taking the lead and initiative, gaining credibility globally, putting on the veneer of global environmental leadership and growing dominance.
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 20:35:12

The UK, France, and some Scandahoovian countries have all announced at least the objective of the phase out of the petroleum fuels. As Ibon points out, this is mainly symbolic at this point in time. One of those Scandahoovian countries is Norway, where EVs reached 29.1% of new car sales in 2016 and seem to be on track for 37% in 2017. Already 5% of all vehicles on Norwegian roads are BEVs. A variety of government incentives and fee/tax waivers are responsible.

I wish Trump had the courage to do this same announcement. Symbolic or not, it is a forward-looking announcement that should be viewed by all as good news. We will still have petroleum fuels for decades, and petroleum wells for over a century. Low price per barrel or not, the stuff is simply too precious to burn.
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 20:51:06

KaiserJeep wrote:The UK, France, and some Scandahoovian countries have all announced at least the objective of the phase out of the petroleum fuels.
Don't forget India, Germany, Netherlands, Several US states, Quebec, etc.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 21:32:05

Well in your own words Kaiser look at what politicians do not what they say. The world is irrevocably linked to fossil fuels for its survival and subsistence. Furthermore, in rich countries the art of politics is the art of appeasing the masses and being reelected. And the best way of achieving that is with a healthy Economy dependent on FF for that. Which is why communist leaders in China can boldly speak like that even if they will not readily follow this course
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 01:57:02

Another long shot:
Volkswagen, the world's biggest carmaker, will offer an electric version of all its 300 models by 2030, becoming the latest manufacturer to move away from petrol and diesel.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41231766

I do hope the price moves in the right direction because now if I needed to replace my car about the only thing electric I could afford is the cars (carts?) that Revi keeps posting about, or an electric bike.
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby baha » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 04:54:35

This is not good news for the US. Many other countries are passing us by. The future is EVs powered by alternative energy. What have we done to invest in that future?

All the solar equipment I install is made in another country. When the economy turns green we will be totally dependent on other countries to provide our power. This isn't a political issue it's an energy of the future issue. As the FF'd economy fades away so will the US...Unless we get on board.

How long will we be first worlders if we don't make our own power. It's like growing your own food. You cannot be successful and independent unless you do. Oil is the past, electricity is the future.

Kuntsler is right. We are on the verge of going medieval. How will we buy these new technologies if our fiat money is worthless.

Tesla with all its faults is the only hope we have. That is why I am invested...if Tesla fails, we all fail. Do you really think Exxon/Mobil has the vision to take into the future?

It doesn't matter if the future is better or worse, we all still have to go. Wouldn't it be better if we were in control instead of following the crowd?
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 06:11:05

baha wrote:As the FF'd economy fades away so will the US...Unless we get on board.
Don't panic baha. The US actually gets a significant portion of it's energy from non fossil fuel sources. And those sources are expanding year after year. When you look at it from that perspective the US is actually doing fairly well. Certainly better than China/India who get around 80% of their electricity from fossil fuels.

Fossil fuel electricity production for select countries

Country Percent of electricity from fossil fuels
Germany 60%
United States 69%
UK 71%
India 79%
China 81%
Netherlands 83%
List of countries by electricity production

baha wrote:Tesla with all its faults is the only hope we have. That is why I am invested...if Tesla fails, we all fail. Do you really think Exxon/Mobil has the vision to take into the future?
Tesla is a tiny player in the automotive market. Once EVs start to become a viable choice for the mass market you can bet other automotive companies will get in on the action. Companies with alot more automotive experience, manufacturing capacity, etc. It is already starting to happen. Toyota, Volkswagen, Volvo, Ford, Porsche, etc have all announced plans to transition to EVs. No reason to paint Musk as some kind of Messiah. If he doesn't fill a demand in the market, someone else will.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 06:27:13

baha wrote:This isn't a political issue it's an energy of the future issue. As the FF'd economy fades away so will the US...Unless we get on board.


Around the globe the US is about the only country that is still stuck in this funk where environmentalism, energy, climate change etc. is still bogged down by ideological and political division. As time goes on it looks more and more absurd. Increasingly so because the US built its economic prowess on a pragmatic philosophy that money talks.

Why isn't the money talking?
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby baha » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 07:41:02

The money doesn't talk because the FF industry sluffs off their expenses in the form of CO2, ocean dead zones, and asthma. There is cost to society that is not represented in the price. And yet Solar is still catching up.

This is also not a vehicle issue. It is all about energy. Those car companies who start by building battery manufacturing facilities will succeed. Others will just be dependent. I just heard Mercedes is building a battery plant and entering the home storage market...they will be successful. GM will be left behind.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 08:02:24

Sloughs off.
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 08:41:43

baha wrote:This is also not a vehicle issue. It is all about energy. Those car companies who start by building battery manufacturing facilities will succeed. Others will just be dependent. I just heard Mercedes is building a battery plant and entering the home storage market...they will be successful. GM will be left behind.
No company in today's world is an island. Everyone one of them gets parts from someone else. Tesla is just as dependent as they are. Infact moreso. Remember the whole fiasco with Tesla's part supplier for it's Falcom wing doors? or myriad other supplier issues? The other companies have well developed supply chains and deal with first rate parts suppliers. Tesla has to deal with 2nd rate suppliers and the defects/delays that come with it. As for the batteries, Tesla is still playing catch up to BYD.

Elon Musk’s Master Plan, Part Deux envisioned a future where Teslas are used for each type of terrestrial transport, from passenger vehicles to buses and trucks, supplemented by a seamless suite of solar-and-storage products. This vision was probably best captured in Tesla’s announcement of its offer to acquire SolarCity: “We would be the world’s only vertically integrated energy company offering end-to-end clean energy products to our customers.” In fact, Tesla would be the second such company. China’s BYD (short for “Build Your Dreams”) has already built Elon’s dream -- and has done so profitably.

BYD versus Tesla
When comparing the two companies head to head, the data shows that in almost every relevant dimension, BYD has gone further and is growing faster.

Passenger vehicle EVs: BYD not only outsold Tesla last year, but its planned growth this year is higher.

Battery use: BYD produced 10 gigawatt-hours of lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) batteries last year in its 10-gigawatt-hour factory, and it is now building a second manufacturing facility. It expects to produce 16 gigawatt-hours in 2016, keeping pace with Tesla’s growth rate. LFP does have substantial advantages, the biggest being its dimensional stability when charged or discharged, heated or cooled. This allows BYD to recharge its buses at 300 kilowatts without a battery cooling system. (It also relegates Tesla’s superchargers to being the world’s second-fastest charging stations.) The advantages carry over to durability; BYD buses come with a 12-year battery warranty, and many of the earliest generations of BYD e6 taxis -- still in use -- have surpassed 500,000 miles per unit on their original battery packs.

Energy storage: BYD claims to dominate the North American energy storage market and had deployed more than 295 megawatts/295 megawatt-hours across 66 countries at the end of Q2.

EV buses: BYD has four electric-bus manufacturing facilities and shipped its 10,000th unit this year, with a further 7,000 units on order. Recently, its winter trial for EV buses successfully concluded in Edmonton, Canada (average daily January high: 17º F). A multi-bus/solar panel/1-megawatt energy storage project (geared toward limiting demand charges) with another city even farther north may soon emerge.

EV trucks: BYD has offered electric delivery vans since 2014 and has expanded into short-haul trucks; it has also entered the construction market with its first electric cement mixer. Though less of a head start than with buses, the lead is large and growing with each purchase and product line extension.

Final thoughts
BYD is ahead -- and in some cases far ahead -- of Tesla in every dimension of Elon Musk’s grand vision. Autonomy is the only category where BYD is not winning. As such, every one of Musk's incisive insights about the transformative power of electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics and battery storage, and the cost advantages enjoyed by the biggest giga-scale producers, now work more in BYD’s favor than in Tesla’s.

Musk is playing catch-up in a game he thought he had just invented.

In a nod of acknowledgement to BYD’s 180,000 worldwide employees -- and to correct our overly Silicon Valley-centric perspective here in North America -- we would be well served to give BYD's CEO Wang Chuanfu his due. He clearly won round one.
Tesla Is Playing Catch-Up With China’s BYD in Nearly Every Business Category
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Death of Peakoil: China looks at plans to ban petrol and

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 09:03:16

CHINA LEADING THE CHARGE
We talked to Simon Moores, Managing Director at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, who explained that Tesla isn’t alone or unique in its ambitions to build lithium-ion batteries at scale: While the Tesla Gigafactory is vitally important from an EV vertical integration perspective, the majority of new lithium-ion battery capacity is being built in China. Some of these plants are expected to be huge such as the CATL facility at 50GWh – there is little doubt that China’s lithium-ion industry has come of age.

Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (CATL) has plans to build the largest lithium-ion megafactory of all – but the company is little known in North America. It’s already worth $11.5 billion, and could be a dominant force globally in the battery sector if it successfully increases its lithium-ion production capacity six-fold to 50GWh by the year 2020.

Other Chinese manufacturers are on a similar trajectory. Panasonic, LG Chem, and Boston Power are building new megafactory plants in China, while companies such as Samsung and BYD are expanding existing ones. All lithium-ion plants in China currently have a capacity of 16.4GWh – but by 2020, they will combine for a total of 107.5GWh.

CAPACITY BY COUNTRY
This ramp up in China means that the country will have 62% of the world’s lithium-ion battery production capacity by 2020.
China is leading the charge for lithium-ion factories
The oil barrel is half-full.
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