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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 01:16:33

water - Exactly my point. Same thing I argue about the POD (Peak Oil Dynamic) being the "system wide" analysis that we need to focus on. And not cherry pick the data as done by both sides of the debate. Like $147/bbl oil in 2008 didn't "prove" PO anymore than the huge surge in US production along with global production near record highs "disprove" PO. Likewise if one really understands the El Nino dynamic they would be very careful about blaming this hurricane season on AGW. Same question to you: if we have a strong El Nino in 2018 and a very mild hurricane season as we did in 1997 would you accept that as a basis for some denier's argument?

BTW there's been a lot of sh*t changing during everyone's lifetime for centuries. You ain't special. LOL.

Remember (if you're old enough): all the sh*t changing in the 60's and 70's led many environmental "experts" to conclude we were heading towards another mini ice age. Hell, believe or not, that idea is being pitched these days:

Probability of Sudden Global Cooling

By Dr. Peter Harris

(Excerpt) – "The data also clearly shows the nominal 100KY cycle for glaciation and the interglacial phases and it shows that we have reached the end of the typical Interglacial cycle and are due for a sudden cooling climate change.

Based on this analysis we can say that there is a probability of 94% of imminent global cooling and the beginning of the coming ice age.

By observation of a number of natural internal processes we can find further support for the coming change and I have referred before to the confirmed slowdown of the Gulf Stream, the effect of major endothermic polar ice melt and forecast reduction in solar activity after 70 years of extreme activity not seen for 8000 years before. The Stratosphere is cooling and ice is building on the South Pole. Climate is becoming unstable."
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 05:49:43

Waterpower,

FWIW I have a very similar assessment. I think Rockman understands that as well.

I would add that a global financial breakdown may have similar effects. A BIG DEEP depression, slow trade dramatically. I always lay human overshoot as the foundation of our situation.

Jennifer Francis, Rutgers climate researcher, made this analogy.
Take a deck of 52 cards, remove an Ace, replace with a Duce. All the odds are changed, but it's not immediatly obvious.

I find that above 45° there is very little resistance to the concept of CC. The effects are stronger there. Lots of folks work outdoors.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 14:29:03

"Take a deck of 52 cards, remove an Ace, replace with a Duce. All the odds are changed, but it's not immediatly obvious."

Thanks, that is a good one, one I hadn't heard before.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 16:25:36

dohboi wrote:"Take a deck of 52 cards, remove an Ace, replace with a Duce. All the odds are changed, but it's not immediatly obvious."

Thanks, that is a good one, one I hadn't heard before.


Sounds good. The thing is, it isn't accurate. Your odds of getting every other card in the deck except an ace or duce remain exactly the same.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 16:39:54

Yeah, it would be better if all the cards were off by some tiny fraction, but that isn't really possible.

So if you're playing some game where the cards have points, you're just a bit more likely to get a higher hand (if ace = 1) than otherwise.

And near 100% likely that the average of your hands will be higher over say 100 hands.


I think by now we've altered the deck a bit more than that already, though.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 25 Sep 2017, 14:37:46

Sunday morning shows spent less than 60 sec on Puerto Rico, one of the worst humanitarian emergencies in US history

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status ... 4094925826

Sunday political talk shows barely cover Hurricane Maria’s devastation of Puerto Rico

The entire island is without power, a dam is in danger of bursting, and Sunday political talk shows talked about it for less than a minute


https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/ ... ico/218020

Millions in Puerto Rico lack electricity, clean water; 10,000s lost homes... and there's now a record heat wave.

https://twitter.com/AlexSteffen/status/ ... 7261963264

What parts of San Juan are like today, five days after #HurricaneMaria pummeled into Puerto Rico. No gas. No electricity. Water everywhere.

https://twitter.com/ASE/status/912047336418938881
Brief video at the link.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 27 Sep 2017, 13:37:03

Flood planning -- or lack thereof -- for Washington, D.C.

“When the big storm hits D.C., the resulting disaster may not kill as many as Katrina, or flood as much physical real estate as Harvey, but the toll it takes on American institutions will be unfathomable. The storm will paralyze many of the agencies that operate and defend the nation, raising the specter of national-security threats.”

What Happens When a Superstorm Hits D.C.?
A major hurricane could paralyze the government and jeopardize national security. Why is the capital so unprepared?
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... dc-w504341
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 27 Sep 2017, 20:17:28

dohboi wrote:Flood planning -- or lack thereof -- for Washington, D.C.

“When the big storm hits D.C., the resulting disaster may not kill as many as Katrina, or flood as much physical real estate as Harvey, but the toll it takes on American institutions will be unfathomable. The storm will paralyze many of the agencies that operate and defend the nation, raising the specter of national-security threats.”

What Happens When a Superstorm Hits D.C.?
A major hurricane could paralyze the government and jeopardize national security. Why is the capital so unprepared?
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... dc-w504341


If our government, with offices in every large city plus every state capital that isn't also a large city, can't deal with a storm in DC then we are surely doomed. On the other hand being spread out as it actually is the odds that removing DC woukd actually cause chaos is a pretty darn silly claim to make.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 06:41:31

Anyone who has tried to negotiate DC rush hour traffic knows it borders on chaos daily.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 16:46:35

Weather extremes, fossil fuel pollution cost US $240 billion

Weather extremes and air pollution from burning fossil fuels cost the United States $240 billion a year in the past decade, according to a report on Wednesday that urged President Donald Trump to do more to combat climate change.

This year is likely to be the most expensive on record with an estimated $300 billion in losses from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria and a spate of wildfires in western states in the past two months, it said.

"The evidence is undeniable: the more fossil fuels we burn, the faster the climate continues to change," leading scientists wrote in the study published by the non-profit Universal Ecological Fund.

Costs to human health from air pollution caused by fossil fuels averaged $188 billion a year over the past decade, it estimated, while losses from weather extremes such as droughts, heat waves and floods averaged $52 billion. ...


http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1C22AM
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 16:53:35

Majority says climate change responsible for severity of hurricanes

More than half of Americans believe that climate change is responsible for the severity of recent hurricanes, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll published Thursday.

The survey found that 55 percent of respondents blamed climate change for the rough 2017 hurricane season, while 41 percent said it was "just the kind of severe weather that happens from time to time."

The result is a big change from the same poll 12 years ago, which found that 39 percent blamed climate change and 54 percent blamed random severe weather for the hurricanes of the time. The 2005 poll was taken shortly after Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc on New Orleans.
...


http://thehill.com/policy/energy-enviro ... everity-of
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 21:52:19

GHung wrote:
dohboi wrote:"Take a deck of 52 cards, remove an Ace, replace with a Duce. All the odds are changed, but it's not immediatly obvious."

Thanks, that is a good one, one I hadn't heard before.


Sounds good. The thing is, it isn't accurate. Your odds of getting every other card in the deck except an ace or duce remain exactly the same.


Except the odds of getting a high hand verses a low hand DOES change. Significantly.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 12:04:36

From WaPo:

September is the most energetic month for hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic


The 2017 hurricane season has certainly been one for the record books. Whether it be Harvey’s scale-tipping rains, Irma’s off-the-chart winds, or the sheer number of storms that have spun up, this year is clearly anything but normal.

But how wacky has the weather in the tropics been? For that, meteorologists refer to a figure known as ACE, a measure of every hurricane’s energy put together during its life span. September produced the most ACE in any month on record in the Atlantic Ocean.

ACE, or Accumulated Cyclone Energy, is manifest in stirred-up oceans, steamy downpours, crackling lightning and ferocious winds. The force to instigate these nasty conditions is extracted from the roasting waters of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and transformed into motion through a hurricane’s natural “heat engine.”

To quantify this measure, scientists take into account the strength of the winds within each and every storm, as well as their duration. ACE is calculated every six hours, and a running tally is kept for each storm so long as it sticks around. The measure does not take into account a storm’s size.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 06:21:18

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 10:10:26

Here comes Nate! It's not an official tropical storm yet, and the track is speculative, but it looks like the hurricane season's not over yet!

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... n/70002885
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 11:19:50

Revi wrote:Here comes Nate! It's not an official tropical storm yet, and the track is speculative, but it looks like the hurricane season's not over yet!

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... n/70002885


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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 12:14:25

Wow! So Nate may be a hurricane when he hits. If it follows that track, New Orleans is ok. It won't be a very destructive event if it doesn't hit the delta. Hopefully...
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 12:55:33

Revi wrote:Wow! So Nate may be a hurricane when he hits. If it follows that track, New Orleans is ok. It won't be a very destructive event if it doesn't hit the delta. Hopefully...


??????

There are plenty of other vulnerable towns at low elevations right on Nate's potential path. There are other bays and other low bank beaches and other river deltas and other towns that will get hit hard if Nate comes in as projected.

I spent a lovely week in Pensacola, Florida once, in a small older motel that was built right on the beach. Not next to it---ON it. You could pull back the rickety sliding door and step directly out on the beach sand and walk on down to the water. I think Jimmy Buffet later built a giant moderno hotel down the beach from it.

Jimmy BUffet's huge hotel and the great old small motel I stayed at (and much of coastal Pensacola) and the great old town of Appalachicola and the hideous developments built on the offshore islands will all be toast if they get a storm surge in there from Nate.

Cheers!
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 13:10:55

Wow! I think Florida is incredibly vulnerable. I heard on the news this morning that they will be getting flood and high surf advisories today with around 5 inches of rain. There will be coastal flooding and higher than normal tides.
I take it back, any hurricane is a nightmare.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 17:59:02

It's a construction renovation opportunity! ;)
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