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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 15:54:35

Ibon wrote:Are the hurricanes in 2017 and the damage and fear and imagery having a significant impact on moving public sentiment regarding climate change among those who still at this late date resist the truth? Your opinions?


I am told here repeatedly that weather and climate change are two different things. Why should I take note of these hurricanes as having anything to do with climate change?
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 18:48:59

Revi - "willfully unaware". An excellent phrase that covers far more then the climate situation.

And ibon: there's the problem that Cog eludes to: the citizens of the US have suffered as much or worse from hurricanes during the first half of the 1900's (when AGW would probably have had minimal to no impact) then we've suffered in the last 20 years. Which isn't proof that AGW isn't making the situation worse to some degree. But pointing to the severity of recent hurricanes as proof is not greatly different the deniers of global warming using unusually cold snaps as "proof" that global warming isn't happening.

As I pointed out elsewhere: the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 had a track almost identical of that of Irma. One hurricane historian estimated that the 1935 storm happening today would cause damages on the order of $1 TRILLION. And many thousands of deaths compared to the 450 killed in the 30's when much fewer folks lived in western FL.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 20:15:40

Cog wrote:
Ibon wrote:Are the hurricanes in 2017 and the damage and fear and imagery having a significant impact on moving public sentiment regarding climate change among those who still at this late date resist the truth? Your opinions?


I am told here repeatedly that weather and climate change are two different things. Why should I take note of these hurricanes as having anything to do with climate change?


Cog,
Gravity is one thing.
Wind is something else.
But when shooting at a couple of hundred yards they combine to significantly affect the flight path of a bullet.

That said, IMHO, we have always had hurricanes and are idiots for being surprised by them. The large dollar impacts are because we have about zero planning capacity to see the obvious. CC has little to do with the strength of the hurricanes. Little, not zero.

Over the fullness of time that will change.

And we have zero planning capacity to deal with it.

Don't you think your own comments and attitudes support that assertion?
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 22:21:13

How about this plan? Don't live next to the coast and if you do, build your structures to withstand high wind events and design your drainage to deal with flooding. Just a thought off the top of my head. But I recognize my thinking might be flawed since I'm not a not a high speed climatologist like everyone else is here.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 05:36:05

Cog,

Your just trying too hard to be critical. Your logic breaks down and makes you sound, well irrational.

I don't think anyone here disagrees with your technical solution. In fact it has been suggested over and over. So why the sarcasm?
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 07:03:39

Paul B. on Capital and CC, superstorms.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlG6I9nlDgQ

I discuss how ongoing & cascading climate chaos is the root cause of our crisis in capitalism. The US is considered one of the richest & most powerful countries in the world, yet is being brought to its knees from repeated hits due to Superstorms made worse by climate change chaos.

It is not just climate change that threatens people. As technology rapidly advances, & more & more jobs are lost due to artificial intelligence & robotics, capitalism will be at risk of complete collapse. How do we address these growing risks & come out standing at the other side?
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 07:14:12

Cog wrote:How about this plan? Don't live next to the coast and if you do, build your structures to withstand high wind events and design your drainage to deal with flooding. Just a thought off the top of my head. But I recognize my thinking might be flawed since I'm not a not a high speed climatologist like everyone else is here.


Just playing along here would you leave this up to the public to choose how they build or would you agree that municipalities can make building codes including where to allow structures based on statistical weather patterns and forecasted sea level rise? Remember also the private market's power here too regulate. For example, insurance companies can choose to discontinue offering wind insurance in coastal areas and to certain structures like wood framed homes or homes not built on stilts as you just mentioned.

rebuilding structures in flood plains?

I have always believed the private market, namely the banks and insurance companies will lead the way toward society adapting to climate change. This will happen from pure financial calculus, without having to ever even have a climate change debate won or lost!

What this means is that we won't be having this big national political debate around mitigation of climate change. We will simply cope with the consequences and this will be lead by economic considerations. Consumption goes down when the costs force per capita consumption downwards. When a bank obligates you to have wind insurance too buy a home and the insurance companies triple the current rates then this economic burden will collapse coastal property prices without ever having had a political debate .

We are powerless to move beyond market considerations. Because higher values like protecting the environment or protecting the health of citizens will always take the back seat to economic growth for the vast majority of Kudzu Apes.

It is through the consequences, the catalyst of consequences, that human societies will adapt to climate change.

There will be small populations who will consider the moral and environmental implications of their choices and will make lifestyle choices based on this. This segment of the population might grow. But that was not what I was addressing when I posed the question.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 10:07:12

Apologies: I should have researched the El Niño dynamic sooner. I recall years ago when the strength of the El Niño in the Pacific appeared to greatly affect the level of Hurricane development. Today there appears to be a broad consensus by meteorologists that the El Niño dynamic controls the hurricane dynamic. A predicted weak El Niño (lower Pacific sea temperatures) did forecast a strong 2017 hurric season. And while warmer Carribean waters added to the severity El Niño was still the dominant factor. A strong El Niño would have produced strong high pressure waves that would have tended to deflect hurricanes away from the US mainland. Additional strong high level winds would have inhibited the growth of the storms. And don't hang it all on this one reference: search "El Niño and hurricanes" and you'll find many other supporting studies:

So let's hit the relationship between ocean warming and the activity level of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. The professional meteorologists use their models of the development of the El Niño to predict hurricanes. Here's an example of such a prediction at the beginning of the 2017 season.

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne ... s/70002059

"An expected delay in the onset of El Niño may increase the number of tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the Atlantic during 2017. El Niño is part of a routine fluctuation in sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific. When these waters enter a warm phase of a few degrees Fahrenheit or greater compared to average for several consecutive months, the pattern is designated as El Niño. When El Niño occurs, it typically creates strong winds from the west at mid-levels of the atmosphere. These winds tend to prevent formation, limit strengthening and can lead to an early demise of tropical storms."

So to be clear: the LACK of warming of the surface temperatures produce a WEAKER El Niño effect which allows more and stronger Atlantic hurricanes. And so far that prediction from last spring appears to be spot on. Or more simply: warmer then average Pacific waters reduce the severity of hurricanes.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 10:34:22

Ibon wrote:Are the hurricanes in 2017 and the damage and fear and imagery having a significant impact on moving public sentiment regarding climate change among those who still at this late date resist the truth? Your opinions?


People will believe what they want to believe, as for science its clear the evidence is not there (excepting for those clairvoyants who already know the truth) see statement from WMO:

There is no clear evidence that climate change is making the occurrence of slowly moving land-falling hurricanes in the Houston region, such as Hurricane Harvey, more or less likely. However, some aspects or "ingredients" of the Harvey event may have linkages to climate change.

.... a detectable (i.e. outside the range of natural variability) anthropogenic influence on hurricane rainfall rates has not yet been convincingly documented in observed data.

Model simulations also indicate that hurricanes in a warmer climate are likely to become more intense,....Such changes are not yet clearly detectable in observed data due in part to limitations of existing datasets.

Ongoing sea-level rise, attributable in part to anthropogenic climate change, also exacerbates storm surge for land-falling hurricanes such as Harvey. Damage resulting from the geophysical event itself will be influenced by the vulnerability of the affected region, which is increased by factors such as population and infrastructure growth, and potentially decreased by mitigation measures such as flood control systems. Extensive coastal development has generally led to large increases in hurricane damage in U.S. coastal communities over the past century.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/wm ... ane-harvey
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 12:17:43

Jaw - And as I've posted the scientific consensus is that El Niño has the strongest influence on our hurricane seasons. And that cooler then average Pacific waters = weaker El Niño = stronger hurricanes. So a denier might argue this as proof that AGW is NOT making hurricanes more destructive. But here's the problem with that "logic": those cooler waters do not appear to be a function of atmospheric temps but circulation patterns in the Pacific. Search "El Niño Pacific circulation". Obviously that dynamic has been going on much longer then being caused by AGW. But that isn't to say AGW might not be affecting the dynamic to some degree. But I suspect the system is too complex with a number of uncertain variables to prove it.

Same problem proving the negative effects of AGW: cherry picking certain phenomenon to support it allows deniers to do the same. Such as the 1935 Labor Day hurricane that could have easily caused many times the devastation in FL that Irma did. Or the 1900 Galveston hurricane that killed many more in the US then any other storm in history. In both events AGW could not have been a great factor if at all. Those events no more prove the insignificance of AGW then Harvey and Irma prove the validity of that point. Sorry but the anecdotal knife cuts both ways.

It should require a full global system wide analysis. Which is probably too complex to do.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 12:22:49

"...full global system wide analysis..."

Ummmm, that's exactly what climate scientists do, and after decades of doing it, they are in consensus more than ever about what's going on, the basics, at least.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 12:58:48

dohboi wrote:"...full global system wide analysis..."

Ummmm, that's exactly what climate scientists do, and after decades of doing it, they are in consensus more than ever about what's going on, the basics, at least.

minus WMO, of course. Consensus minus WMO. No consensus. False statement.

    consensus: noun
    general agreement.
    "a consensus of opinion among judges"
    synonyms: agreement, harmony, concurrence, accord, unity, unanimity, solidarity
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 13:34:22

Image

Hurricane Maria as seen on the morning of September 21, 2017, from the International Space Station. Image credit: Randy Bresnik.

**************

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Can push billions of metric tons of ocean water and could trigger earth quakes. (Proof will come soon :shock: )
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 16:15:17

ROCKMAN wrote:Jaw - And as I've posted the scientific consensus is that El Niño has the strongest influence on our hurricane seasons. And that cooler then average Pacific waters = weaker El Niño = stronger hurricanes. So a denier might argue this as proof that AGW is NOT making hurricanes more destructive. But here's the problem with that "logic": those cooler waters do not appear to be a function of atmospheric temps but circulation patterns in the Pacific. Search "El Niño Pacific circulation". Obviously that dynamic has been going on much longer then being caused by AGW. But that isn't to say AGW might not be affecting the dynamic to some degree. But I suspect the system is too complex with a number of uncertain variables to prove it.

Same problem proving the negative effects of AGW: cherry picking certain phenomenon to support it allows deniers to do the same. Such as the 1935 Labor Day hurricane that could have easily caused many times the devastation in FL that Irma did. Or the 1900 Galveston hurricane that killed many more in the US then any other storm in history. In both events AGW could not have been a great factor if at all. Those events no more prove the insignificance of AGW then Harvey and Irma prove the validity of that point. Sorry but the anecdotal knife cuts both ways.

It should require a full global system wide analysis. Which is probably too complex to do.


Rockman, AGW is a theory, it makes sense to most people. As with any theory the proponents of the theory are the ones required to prove the theory. I have no problem believing in AGW or in a natural warming cycle, but I have a big problem with people who use every weather event to say aha, see here's proof of AGW and usually follow with it's also Catastrophic, the worst ever, hence we must do something to save the planet. When in reality there is no clear evidence yet of an AGW effect (again see statement from WMO scientists), which leaves us with belief and belief is not evidence. As you have pointed out hurricanes have cycles, same for weather and climate and many cycles are beyond our long term memory and/or lifespan, making current weather events seem the worst ever, when mostly they are not. 100 years from now we will have a much better scientific database to draw from and I expect people then will look back on today and laugh at the hysteria AGW provoked (Y2K anyone?). Forecast for below freezing temperatures tonight, happily I can still use natural gas to heat my home.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 16:39:27

With a background in mechanical engineering and thermodynamics, I know that if you make more heat available to a heat engine you get more work out of that heat engine. Hurricanes are essentially heat engines. Seems reasonable that burning billions of tons of fossil fuels adds more heat to our environment, making more heat available to storms.

There must be a way to measure these things. The first is ocean temperatures:

Image
right-click to see full image

On the other hand, storms and our environment are complex open systems which are a bitch to predict. Another measure we have is the ACE (Accumulated-Cyclone-Energy) which weather geeks use to establish yearly tropical cyclone total energy for each year. According to this data, there doesn't seem to be an obvious correlation between warming sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone energy in any one given year:

Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a measure used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to express the activity of individual tropical cyclones and entire tropical cyclone seasons, particularly the North Atlantic hurricane season. It uses an approximation of the wind energy used by a tropical system over its lifetime and is calculated every six hours. The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACEs for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical storms in the season. The highest ACE calculated for a single storm is 82, for Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke in 2006..."

See list of years here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulat ... .80.932017

BTW: The Weather Channel just said the 2017 ACE is currently at 172.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 00:55:24

Yeah, it's direct atmospheric heat...over a degree C on average since pre-industrial times.

But that heat also implies more water vapor...about 7% for every degree C...which also fuels these storms.

Plus you have specifically sea surface temperature heat, which is certainly increasing and is the direct source of energy for these storms.

But beyond that, you have sea temperatures at various depths, which are also increasing, and which, if shear doesn't destroy them, allows these storms to grow even bigger and even faster, in spite of the otherwise damping effect of evaporative surface cooling...

PLUS you have highers sea level rise that are giving these monsters, juiced up be all of the above, an even higher 'platform' to start from when they move massive amounts of water into the mainland (or over islands).

There are many pieces to the puzzle, almost all pointing to exacerbating strong hurricanes and cyclones when they do manage to form.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 03:06:15

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 05:18:37

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Puerto Ricos BLACK OUT

Better knock out
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 14:55:04

Ghung - " I know that if you make more heat available to a heat engine you get more work out of that heat engine." Since you know your stuff I'll take your word on it. Now take your very hot engine and blow a piston: how much work will you get out of it then?

Which is analogous to the El Nino effect. If you dig thru all the studies you'll find a pretty strong consensus that this dynamic dominates the number and strength of each Atlantic hurricane season. And a weak El Nino prediction being made by meteorologist s last spring is what also led them to predict a worse then average hurricane season. And I think we can agree they were spot on.

And what produces a weak El Nino cycle: cooler then average surface temps in the Pacific Ocean...not warmer. Which IS NOT proof that AGW is not adding heat to the atmosphere. What it does indicate is the circulation of Pacific waters is not being controlled by any increase in global atmospheric temps. Historic records show the El Nino dynamic has been in play for centuries.

So while warmer Caribbean waters (whatever the primary cause) might allow stronger hurricane development it won't change the fact A) that during strong El Nino years strong high pressure waves dominate the eastern US and tends to keep most of the storms from reaching the mainland. And B) the strong high level winds associated with those high pressure waves tend to "blow the tops off" the storms and reduce their growth potential.

So now a question for our buddy dohboi who seems to imply those folks that model the atmosphere take into account "system wide" factors. Like those cool Pacific water during weak El Nino's cooling temps over the Pacific? Or at least being a bit of a heat sink absorbing some atmospheric heat?

Which brings up another "system wide analysis" question: were the warmer then average Caribbean waters this year due to atmospheric warming or a shift in Atlantic water circulation patterns? After all El Nino circulation changes results in colder Pacific waters coming to the surface. Of course if those warmer Caribbean waters were primarily due to a circulation change it DOES NOT prove that AGW isn't causing the global atmospheric temps to increase.

Which brings us back to Ghung's point about hotter engines. So these hurricanes like Harvey that suck up countless TRILLIONS of gallons of WARM WATER eventually dump those WARM OCEAN WATERS through the ATMOSPHERE transferring much of that HEAT into the atmosphere. So IF those warmer ocean waters are primarily due to current changes and not a warmer atmosphere then wouldn't at least some of the increase in atmospheric temps be due to increased hurricane/typhoon activity? Or maybe circulation changes in the Pacific are bringing up cooler waters that absorb some of the atmospheric heat gained from AGW. Or maybe all that Arctic ice melt is being circulated south into the Pacific which will produce a long term trend in weaker El Nino's which will produce a long term trend in worse hurricane seasons which will happen even if there's no long term trend in warmer Caribbean waters?

So dohboi: you've seen global warming models that factor in temperature patters of the world's oceans? And factored in the atmospheric heat gains from cyclones transferring ocean heat to the atmosphere? Or just the reverse: atmospheric heat transferred to the oceans? I can go on and on with more POTENTIAL factors like humidity changes due to agricultural activity. Such as the shrinking of the glacier on Mount Kilimanjaro:

"Mt. Kilimanjaro's ice loss is due to land use and not as Gore's claims the snowcap atop Africa's Mt. Kilimanjaro is shrinking and that global warming is to blame. According to the November 2003 issue of Nature magazine, "Although it's tempting to blame the ice loss on global warming, researchers think deforestation of the mountain's foothills is the more likely culprit. Without the forests' humidity, previously moisture-laden winds blew dry. No longer replenished with water, the ice is evaporating in the strong equatorial sunshine."'

Nature Magazine... a right wing rag??? LOL

Which is what I meant by the tremendous complexity of a complete SYSTEM WIDE analysis. Again fair warning: using anecdotal evidence opens up the opportunity for deniers to use the same style argument to support their position. For instance in 2018 if we have a strong El Nino with Caribbean water temps at or below normal and we have a very mild hurricane season...like we had not that long ago in 1997. Are you going to accept the position that AGW is not causing climate change?

Like I said before: live by the anecdote... die by the anecdote. LOL. For instance what if US GDP has a nice growth spurt over the next 3 years? Are you going the give President Trump credit and admit the poor growth of the economy for much of the last decade was President Obama's fault? After all if it plays out that way you have to admit the CORRELATION.

But one more time: correlation does not necessarily prove CAUSATION.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby waterpowerman1 » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 15:33:54

Rock:
I agree no-one has a handle the total system or knows the path that the weather will take as we transition to a warmer climate. Having said that it appears that the north polar region is getting warmer faster and that is setting off a whole bunch things like weaker northern atmospheric jetstream and gulf stream ocean current which affect other things and on and on. I can't list them all but THINGS ARE CHANGING in my lifetime. If we don't have a big blast like a large dusty volcano (nature) or a nuclear winter(courtesy Kim & Donald) lots of us are going to have some very unpredictable weather.
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