Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

No way Jose

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 17 Sep 2017, 07:29:14

At least Jose is not targeting NYC anymore, a close call though.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... wn-on-baja

:roll: Hurricane Jose churned toward the U.S. Northeast and could cause swells along the coast by midweek, according to the National Hurricane Center, while Norma is aiming for Mexico’s Baja California and a new system is gathering strength in the Caribbean as a busy tropical weather season grinds on.
Jose was about 420 miles (675 kilometers) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It’s path could put it well off the coast of New Jersey and New York by Wednesday morning, although it may weaken to a tropical storm again by then, the center said.
User avatar
Whitefang
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 384
Joined: Fri 12 May 2006, 02:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 18 Sep 2017, 02:06:23

vt - "The most valuable tools to obtain in an area where they are not coming to return services soon". And despite Houston's terrible luck it was fortunate that the vast majority of damage was flooding. It was really amazing to see how quickly sheet rock, carpets and ruined furniture piled up at the curbs. Some efforts essential turned into "block parties" when large groups of neighbors
went housecto house. In some cases demoded a house in an hour. One reason the mayor quickly asked FEMA to pony up money immediately for garbage removal...hundreds of $millions.

For the most part took a lot less equipment then you described. Since we never got high winds almost no roof damage like the folks in FL. And almost all the areas had full electricity and water with in a week. So while very uncomfortable (bordering on disgusting) many homes were "livable" if you were willing to do it to yourself.

But that was the fast and "easy" part. Replacing walls and flooring will take many hundreds of crews working around the clock and it will still take many months. But if I owned a home in such shape and had some temp quarters I might want to wait for hurricane season to pass before I started.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10678
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 18 Sep 2017, 02:50:50

Next CAT 4-5 Hurricane is on track: MARIA!


Image

PUERTO RICO
GET READY! BATTLE STATIONS!

****************

Image
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3290
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 18 Sep 2017, 04:50:48

NHC of s predicting it will move through Leewards and Virgins as a class 3 or 4.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9531
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Mon 18 Sep 2017, 07:14:45

Jose might hit Nantucket, and maybe part of the cape as a cat 1, or maybe a tropical storm. Right now we are getting fog and rain here from it.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6820
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 04:53:36

MARIA
NHC this am.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands as an
extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next day or so.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight
and Wednesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and
destructive waves, is expected for the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9531
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 07:38:22

Man, this is just too much already for those place and people. I hope they evacuated everybody. Those people in those islands are not in position to weather another Hurricane. I think these places may be end up becoming uninhabited areas very soon.
You can ignore reality but not its consequences
User avatar
onlooker
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 8202
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 07:50:49

So far not much happening from Jose. It's going to create a little rain tonight and tomorrow, mostly along the coast. I noticed that the individual rain pockets move east to west while the whole tropical storm moves eastwards, so it's still spinning! We need the rain, but maybe not the storm surge! It's nothing compared to what's happening in the leeward islands, so we won't complain!
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6820
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 09:10:47

CAT5 Maria

Image
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3290
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 12:52:38

So now the long range models are showing Jose weakening with Maria catching up and engulfing Jose.

Just about the time I'm on the ferry crossing off the island.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9531
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 13:48:21

Newfie wrote:So now the long range models are showing Jose weakening with Maria catching up and engulfing Jose.

Just about the time I'm on the ferry crossing off the island.
Here's an article about how they might affect each other:

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/weath ... 70919.html
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6820
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 18:28:13

Current Euro forecast has Maria eating Jose and making a very close pass along the NJ coast.

But still very distant predictions.

In the meantime huge storm system in both Atlantic between England and Greenland.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9531
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 19:32:40

Maria now a 175mph storm on a beeline for USVI and PR. New TropicalTidbits:
(I love this guy) - https://youtu.be/ZJISCmwrFCE

Nice forecast for San Juan, eh?

This product covers PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS

**EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING CLOSER TO ST CROIX IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Central Interior, Culebra,
Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central,
Northeast, Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and
Vicinity, Southeast, Southwest, St Croix, St.Thomas...St.
John...and Adjacent Islands, Vieques, and Western Interior

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 150 miles southeast of San Juan PR or about 60 miles
southeast of Saint Croix VI
- 17.0N 64.2W
- Storm Intensity 175 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 8 PM AST Major Hurricane Maria is still yet stronger with sustained
winds of 175 mph, but only very close to the center. It is expected to
continue at this strength with some fluctuations until it encounters
Puerto Rico. It should then begin to weaken. Hurricane conditions are
likely to begin Tuesday night across the USVI, Vieques and Culebra; and
across Puerto Rico Wednesday morning........

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... cG54Rdrxsg
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1882
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 01:53:19

Maria Back Over Water After Devastating Hit to Puerto Rico
Dr. Jeff Masters · September 20, 2017, 5:53 PM EDT
Image
Image

Above: Damage on the Lesser Antilles island of Dominica, after Hurricane Maria hit as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Maria killed at least 7 people on Dominica, and 2 on neighboring Guadeloupe. Image from a video by the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency....


An island-wide power outage in Puerto Rico
Not since the great Category 5 1928 San Felipe Segundo hurricane has Puerto Rico experienced a hurricane catastrophe as extreme as that wrought by Hurricane Maria. The storm’s powerful winds caused catastrophic damage to the island’s power grid, knocking out power to 100% of Puerto Rico’s 3.4 million residents. In the Virgin Islands, there was also heavy damage on St. Croix, and serious flooding has been reported on St. Thomas. Maria is almost assured to be the most expensive hurricane in Puerto Rico history, and may challenge Hurricane Hugo (1989) and Irma (2 weeks ago) as the most expensive hurricane on record for the U.S. Virgin Islands.
*************
Now a 100 year Hurricane catastrophe will hit every 10 years and a 1000 year flood will hit in every 100 years

So you have to calculate the "risks" new @ 410 ppm CO2 and 1850 ppb CH4 in 2017
**********************

More

Puerto Rico governor: Power could be out for months


http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/20/ameri ... index.html
Puerto Rico's energy grid took such a severe blow from deadly Hurricane Maria that restoring power to everyone may take months, Gov. Ricardo Rosselló told CNN on Wednesday night.

The entire system is down, the governor said. No one on the island has power from utilities.

=>

Dominica: 14 dead; looting and food, water shortages
On the island of Dominica, which took the full force of Maria before the storm passed on to the US territory, government spokesman Charles Jong told CNN that 14 people had died.
*************

As a Peak Oiler it will be "interesting" "educating" to study this "Mega Black Out"

PEAK OIL

M_B_S
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3290
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 05:57:30

Are the hurricanes in 2017 and the damage and fear and imagery having a significant impact on moving public sentiment regarding climate change among those who still at this late date resist the truth? Your opinions?
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 6050
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 05:59:53

With my schedule for the next 2 weeks I can't take advantage of this. But others might find it interesting.

http://view.mail.umalumni.com/?qs=8d7d0 ... 2d72d9ca1e


Hurricanes: What's Next is a free, two-week online course starting​ September 18, 2017 for anyone wondering about the sciences of hurricanes. Led by Dr. Perry Samson, professor of climate and space sciences and engineering (and founder of Weather Underground), this course draws from experts in the field of climate science to address questions such as what drives a hurricane, how do we forecast them, and will climate change play a role in the frequency of storms like hurricanes Harvey and Irma? Sign up today.


Enroll Now


Recognizing our alumni's desire to remain engaged with the academic and intellectual offerings of U-M, the Alumni Association's Alumni Education programs will connect Wolverines to the educational resources of the University. The U-M Teach Out Series, developed by U-M's office of Academic Innovation, creates engagement with the expertise of University of Michigan faculty on timely topics. Alumni Education is delighted to be partnering with Academic Innovation to bring this course to you.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9531
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 07:49:15

I would say that, despite the hurricanes, we are willfully unaware of how our choices affect the climate system. People don't want to connect it to their lifestyles. They experience a kind of cognitive dissonance where they know that climate change is caused by using lots of fossil fuels, but they feel that they are very important and they need that four wheel drive or that flight to the Caribbean because they have some extra money laying around. I have some friends who consider themselves to be environmentalists who flew up to see the polar bears because they might not be around much longer...
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6820
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 08:53:06

Revi wrote:I would say that, despite the hurricanes, we are willfully unaware of how our choices affect the climate system. People don't want to connect it to their lifestyles. They experience a kind of cognitive dissonance where they know that climate change is caused by using lots of fossil fuels, but they feel that they are very important and they need that four wheel drive or that flight to the Caribbean because they have some extra money laying around. I have some friends who consider themselves to be environmentalists who flew up to see the polar bears because they might not be around much longer...


The first step is to recognize the problem and then the 2nd step is to recognize how ones lifestyle aggravates or helps to contain the problem. Some folks don't want to open the door to the first step already knowing that they won't have the integrity to deal with step 2.

And yet many have children and are invested in their well being.

I think naming this cognitive dissonance in a nice sterile and hygienic way of saying pathologically narcissistic. A mother addicted to crystal meth will allow her children to starve in the next room. Some hopelessness and addiction is part of the problem as well. And fear. For some it is refusing to participate in anything that requires sacrifice toward society at large as if this is an unpatriotic "socialist" sentiment. There are lots of rationalizations one can latch on to for not wanting to even consider step 1.

It's interesting though that those folks affected by the hurricanes and living in areas where they have directly suffered the consequences do increasingly recognize climate change regardless of party or ideology.

As long as one can compartmentalize the issue as a problem others some where else are suffering, even if it is your own race and nation, as long as it is not affecting you directly, then you can stay hermetically sealed in denial.

All of this seems to be born out with the experience to date with these most recent storms. And yet at the same time there is always this critical mass that is reached when then a population will acquiesce to the truth.

Are we close to this point?
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 6050
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 11:44:57

"Are we close to this point?"

I doubt it. There was much hullabaloo after first Katrina and then Sandy, but we adjusted and a new TV season started.

No, IMHO......NOPE!
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9531
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 13:47:20

I agree. I don't know if we'll ever get to the point where we recognize what's going on. Humans have a vast capacity for self delusion. Our Dear Leader pulled us out of the Paris Climate Accords, and the hurricanes started up. Instant Karma!
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6820
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

PreviousNext

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests