Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Moderator: Tanada

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 16:39:27

With a background in mechanical engineering and thermodynamics, I know that if you make more heat available to a heat engine you get more work out of that heat engine. Hurricanes are essentially heat engines. Seems reasonable that burning billions of tons of fossil fuels adds more heat to our environment, making more heat available to storms.

There must be a way to measure these things. The first is ocean temperatures:

Image
right-click to see full image

On the other hand, storms and our environment are complex open systems which are a bitch to predict. Another measure we have is the ACE (Accumulated-Cyclone-Energy) which weather geeks use to establish yearly tropical cyclone total energy for each year. According to this data, there doesn't seem to be an obvious correlation between warming sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone energy in any one given year:

Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a measure used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to express the activity of individual tropical cyclones and entire tropical cyclone seasons, particularly the North Atlantic hurricane season. It uses an approximation of the wind energy used by a tropical system over its lifetime and is calculated every six hours. The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACEs for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical storms in the season. The highest ACE calculated for a single storm is 82, for Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke in 2006..."

See list of years here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulat ... .80.932017

BTW: The Weather Channel just said the 2017 ACE is currently at 172.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1615
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 00:55:24

Yeah, it's direct atmospheric heat...over a degree C on average since pre-industrial times.

But that heat also implies more water vapor...about 7% for every degree C...which also fuels these storms.

Plus you have specifically sea surface temperature heat, which is certainly increasing and is the direct source of energy for these storms.

But beyond that, you have sea temperatures at various depths, which are also increasing, and which, if shear doesn't destroy them, allows these storms to grow even bigger and even faster, in spite of the otherwise damping effect of evaporative surface cooling...

PLUS you have highers sea level rise that are giving these monsters, juiced up be all of the above, an even higher 'platform' to start from when they move massive amounts of water into the mainland (or over islands).

There are many pieces to the puzzle, almost all pointing to exacerbating strong hurricanes and cyclones when they do manage to form.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16603
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 03:06:15

I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3236
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 05:18:37

Image

Puerto Ricos BLACK OUT

Better knock out
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3236
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 14:55:04

Ghung - " I know that if you make more heat available to a heat engine you get more work out of that heat engine." Since you know your stuff I'll take your word on it. Now take your very hot engine and blow a piston: how much work will you get out of it then?

Which is analogous to the El Nino effect. If you dig thru all the studies you'll find a pretty strong consensus that this dynamic dominates the number and strength of each Atlantic hurricane season. And a weak El Nino prediction being made by meteorologist s last spring is what also led them to predict a worse then average hurricane season. And I think we can agree they were spot on.

And what produces a weak El Nino cycle: cooler then average surface temps in the Pacific Ocean...not warmer. Which IS NOT proof that AGW is not adding heat to the atmosphere. What it does indicate is the circulation of Pacific waters is not being controlled by any increase in global atmospheric temps. Historic records show the El Nino dynamic has been in play for centuries.

So while warmer Caribbean waters (whatever the primary cause) might allow stronger hurricane development it won't change the fact A) that during strong El Nino years strong high pressure waves dominate the eastern US and tends to keep most of the storms from reaching the mainland. And B) the strong high level winds associated with those high pressure waves tend to "blow the tops off" the storms and reduce their growth potential.

So now a question for our buddy dohboi who seems to imply those folks that model the atmosphere take into account "system wide" factors. Like those cool Pacific water during weak El Nino's cooling temps over the Pacific? Or at least being a bit of a heat sink absorbing some atmospheric heat?

Which brings up another "system wide analysis" question: were the warmer then average Caribbean waters this year due to atmospheric warming or a shift in Atlantic water circulation patterns? After all El Nino circulation changes results in colder Pacific waters coming to the surface. Of course if those warmer Caribbean waters were primarily due to a circulation change it DOES NOT prove that AGW isn't causing the global atmospheric temps to increase.

Which brings us back to Ghung's point about hotter engines. So these hurricanes like Harvey that suck up countless TRILLIONS of gallons of WARM WATER eventually dump those WARM OCEAN WATERS through the ATMOSPHERE transferring much of that HEAT into the atmosphere. So IF those warmer ocean waters are primarily due to current changes and not a warmer atmosphere then wouldn't at least some of the increase in atmospheric temps be due to increased hurricane/typhoon activity? Or maybe circulation changes in the Pacific are bringing up cooler waters that absorb some of the atmospheric heat gained from AGW. Or maybe all that Arctic ice melt is being circulated south into the Pacific which will produce a long term trend in weaker El Nino's which will produce a long term trend in worse hurricane seasons which will happen even if there's no long term trend in warmer Caribbean waters?

So dohboi: you've seen global warming models that factor in temperature patters of the world's oceans? And factored in the atmospheric heat gains from cyclones transferring ocean heat to the atmosphere? Or just the reverse: atmospheric heat transferred to the oceans? I can go on and on with more POTENTIAL factors like humidity changes due to agricultural activity. Such as the shrinking of the glacier on Mount Kilimanjaro:

"Mt. Kilimanjaro's ice loss is due to land use and not as Gore's claims the snowcap atop Africa's Mt. Kilimanjaro is shrinking and that global warming is to blame. According to the November 2003 issue of Nature magazine, "Although it's tempting to blame the ice loss on global warming, researchers think deforestation of the mountain's foothills is the more likely culprit. Without the forests' humidity, previously moisture-laden winds blew dry. No longer replenished with water, the ice is evaporating in the strong equatorial sunshine."'

Nature Magazine... a right wing rag??? LOL

Which is what I meant by the tremendous complexity of a complete SYSTEM WIDE analysis. Again fair warning: using anecdotal evidence opens up the opportunity for deniers to use the same style argument to support their position. For instance in 2018 if we have a strong El Nino with Caribbean water temps at or below normal and we have a very mild hurricane season...like we had not that long ago in 1997. Are you going to accept the position that AGW is not causing climate change?

Like I said before: live by the anecdote... die by the anecdote. LOL. For instance what if US GDP has a nice growth spurt over the next 3 years? Are you going the give President Trump credit and admit the poor growth of the economy for much of the last decade was President Obama's fault? After all if it plays out that way you have to admit the CORRELATION.

But one more time: correlation does not necessarily prove CAUSATION.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10528
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby waterpowerman1 » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 15:33:54

Rock:
I agree no-one has a handle the total system or knows the path that the weather will take as we transition to a warmer climate. Having said that it appears that the north polar region is getting warmer faster and that is setting off a whole bunch things like weaker northern atmospheric jetstream and gulf stream ocean current which affect other things and on and on. I can't list them all but THINGS ARE CHANGING in my lifetime. If we don't have a big blast like a large dusty volcano (nature) or a nuclear winter(courtesy Kim & Donald) lots of us are going to have some very unpredictable weather.
waterpowerman1
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Sat 06 Jul 2013, 14:44:02

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 01:16:33

water - Exactly my point. Same thing I argue about the POD (Peak Oil Dynamic) being the "system wide" analysis that we need to focus on. And not cherry pick the data as done by both sides of the debate. Like $147/bbl oil in 2008 didn't "prove" PO anymore than the huge surge in US production along with global production near record highs "disprove" PO. Likewise if one really understands the El Nino dynamic they would be very careful about blaming this hurricane season on AGW. Same question to you: if we have a strong El Nino in 2018 and a very mild hurricane season as we did in 1997 would you accept that as a basis for some denier's argument?

BTW there's been a lot of sh*t changing during everyone's lifetime for centuries. You ain't special. LOL.

Remember (if you're old enough): all the sh*t changing in the 60's and 70's led many environmental "experts" to conclude we were heading towards another mini ice age. Hell, believe or not, that idea is being pitched these days:

Probability of Sudden Global Cooling

By Dr. Peter Harris

(Excerpt) – "The data also clearly shows the nominal 100KY cycle for glaciation and the interglacial phases and it shows that we have reached the end of the typical Interglacial cycle and are due for a sudden cooling climate change.

Based on this analysis we can say that there is a probability of 94% of imminent global cooling and the beginning of the coming ice age.

By observation of a number of natural internal processes we can find further support for the coming change and I have referred before to the confirmed slowdown of the Gulf Stream, the effect of major endothermic polar ice melt and forecast reduction in solar activity after 70 years of extreme activity not seen for 8000 years before. The Stratosphere is cooling and ice is building on the South Pole. Climate is becoming unstable."
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10528
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 05:49:43

Waterpower,

FWIW I have a very similar assessment. I think Rockman understands that as well.

I would add that a global financial breakdown may have similar effects. A BIG DEEP depression, slow trade dramatically. I always lay human overshoot as the foundation of our situation.

Jennifer Francis, Rutgers climate researcher, made this analogy.
Take a deck of 52 cards, remove an Ace, replace with a Duce. All the odds are changed, but it's not immediatly obvious.

I find that above 45° there is very little resistance to the concept of CC. The effects are stronger there. Lots of folks work outdoors.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9220
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 14:29:03

"Take a deck of 52 cards, remove an Ace, replace with a Duce. All the odds are changed, but it's not immediatly obvious."

Thanks, that is a good one, one I hadn't heard before.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16603
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 16:25:36

dohboi wrote:"Take a deck of 52 cards, remove an Ace, replace with a Duce. All the odds are changed, but it's not immediatly obvious."

Thanks, that is a good one, one I hadn't heard before.


Sounds good. The thing is, it isn't accurate. Your odds of getting every other card in the deck except an ace or duce remain exactly the same.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1615
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 16:39:54

Yeah, it would be better if all the cards were off by some tiny fraction, but that isn't really possible.

So if you're playing some game where the cards have points, you're just a bit more likely to get a higher hand (if ace = 1) than otherwise.

And near 100% likely that the average of your hands will be higher over say 100 hands.


I think by now we've altered the deck a bit more than that already, though.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16603
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 25 Sep 2017, 14:37:46

Sunday morning shows spent less than 60 sec on Puerto Rico, one of the worst humanitarian emergencies in US history

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status ... 4094925826

Sunday political talk shows barely cover Hurricane Maria’s devastation of Puerto Rico

The entire island is without power, a dam is in danger of bursting, and Sunday political talk shows talked about it for less than a minute


https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/ ... ico/218020

Millions in Puerto Rico lack electricity, clean water; 10,000s lost homes... and there's now a record heat wave.

https://twitter.com/AlexSteffen/status/ ... 7261963264

What parts of San Juan are like today, five days after #HurricaneMaria pummeled into Puerto Rico. No gas. No electricity. Water everywhere.

https://twitter.com/ASE/status/912047336418938881
Brief video at the link.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16603
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 27 Sep 2017, 13:37:03

Flood planning -- or lack thereof -- for Washington, D.C.

“When the big storm hits D.C., the resulting disaster may not kill as many as Katrina, or flood as much physical real estate as Harvey, but the toll it takes on American institutions will be unfathomable. The storm will paralyze many of the agencies that operate and defend the nation, raising the specter of national-security threats.”

What Happens When a Superstorm Hits D.C.?
A major hurricane could paralyze the government and jeopardize national security. Why is the capital so unprepared?
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... dc-w504341
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16603
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 27 Sep 2017, 20:17:28

dohboi wrote:Flood planning -- or lack thereof -- for Washington, D.C.

“When the big storm hits D.C., the resulting disaster may not kill as many as Katrina, or flood as much physical real estate as Harvey, but the toll it takes on American institutions will be unfathomable. The storm will paralyze many of the agencies that operate and defend the nation, raising the specter of national-security threats.”

What Happens When a Superstorm Hits D.C.?
A major hurricane could paralyze the government and jeopardize national security. Why is the capital so unprepared?
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... dc-w504341


If our government, with offices in every large city plus every state capital that isn't also a large city, can't deal with a storm in DC then we are surely doomed. On the other hand being spread out as it actually is the odds that removing DC woukd actually cause chaos is a pretty darn silly claim to make.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4053
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 06:41:31

Anyone who has tried to negotiate DC rush hour traffic knows it borders on chaos daily.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9220
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 16:46:35

Weather extremes, fossil fuel pollution cost US $240 billion

Weather extremes and air pollution from burning fossil fuels cost the United States $240 billion a year in the past decade, according to a report on Wednesday that urged President Donald Trump to do more to combat climate change.

This year is likely to be the most expensive on record with an estimated $300 billion in losses from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria and a spate of wildfires in western states in the past two months, it said.

"The evidence is undeniable: the more fossil fuels we burn, the faster the climate continues to change," leading scientists wrote in the study published by the non-profit Universal Ecological Fund.

Costs to human health from air pollution caused by fossil fuels averaged $188 billion a year over the past decade, it estimated, while losses from weather extremes such as droughts, heat waves and floods averaged $52 billion. ...


http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1C22AM
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16603
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 16:53:35

Majority says climate change responsible for severity of hurricanes

More than half of Americans believe that climate change is responsible for the severity of recent hurricanes, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll published Thursday.

The survey found that 55 percent of respondents blamed climate change for the rough 2017 hurricane season, while 41 percent said it was "just the kind of severe weather that happens from time to time."

The result is a big change from the same poll 12 years ago, which found that 39 percent blamed climate change and 54 percent blamed random severe weather for the hurricanes of the time. The 2005 poll was taken shortly after Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc on New Orleans.
...


http://thehill.com/policy/energy-enviro ... everity-of
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16603
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 21:52:19

GHung wrote:
dohboi wrote:"Take a deck of 52 cards, remove an Ace, replace with a Duce. All the odds are changed, but it's not immediatly obvious."

Thanks, that is a good one, one I hadn't heard before.


Sounds good. The thing is, it isn't accurate. Your odds of getting every other card in the deck except an ace or duce remain exactly the same.


Except the odds of getting a high hand verses a low hand DOES change. Significantly.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
User avatar
Cid_Yama
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6922
Joined: Sun 27 May 2007, 02:00:00
Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 12:04:36

From WaPo:

September is the most energetic month for hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic


The 2017 hurricane season has certainly been one for the record books. Whether it be Harvey’s scale-tipping rains, Irma’s off-the-chart winds, or the sheer number of storms that have spun up, this year is clearly anything but normal.

But how wacky has the weather in the tropics been? For that, meteorologists refer to a figure known as ACE, a measure of every hurricane’s energy put together during its life span. September produced the most ACE in any month on record in the Atlantic Ocean.

ACE, or Accumulated Cyclone Energy, is manifest in stirred-up oceans, steamy downpours, crackling lightning and ferocious winds. The force to instigate these nasty conditions is extracted from the roasting waters of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and transformed into motion through a hurricane’s natural “heat engine.”

To quantify this measure, scientists take into account the strength of the winds within each and every storm, as well as their duration. ACE is calculated every six hours, and a running tally is kept for each storm so long as it sticks around. The measure does not take into account a storm’s size.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16603
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 06:21:18

Image

:!:
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3236
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Environment

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests