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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 02:56:02

Image

Models see Hurricane Jose will hit US east coast with 80%
Image
Warmer water (Gulf Stream) will push him up... :(
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 10:39:46

Here is a site with updated info about how the Carib islands are coping. Seems it's gonna be a long struggle.

The comments about Day to day life are interesting.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 14:35:16

The Times Of London, Sept. 11
As Hurricane Irma batters Florida, with Anguilla, Barbuda and Cuba clearing up and Houston drying out after Harvey, it is reasonable to ask whether such tropical cyclones are getting more frequent or fiercer.

The answer to the first question is easy: no. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change put it recently: “Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century.” The trend in numbers of major hurricanes making landfall in the United States has been slightly downward over the past century. Harvey and Irma have ended an unprecedented 12-year hurricane drought, in which not a single category 4 or 5 hurricane made American landfall. So whatever global warming is doing or will do, it is not this.


Just a normal year, climate-wise. Sadly not so for the unfortunate forced to live in low-lying flood prone regions . . . all over the world. This is a consequence of over-population and the magic no-so-invisible hand of the market. The good property on the bluffs (with the blessed view lol) is competitively priced, and out of reach of the rabble. Neither socialism nor a carbon tax will fix this. :cry:
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 18:56:43

It is interesting to see just how few people in the affected areas have any clue about how to get along without government assistance. The most valuable tools to obtain in an area where they are not coming to return services soon are a shovel , a claw hammer, hand saw, axe or machete, tarp and water containers. The shovel to dig a hole and the hammer and saw to use salvage materials to build a latrine over it. Then move on to build a mid term shelter using other salvaged material. Nails can be pulled from the debris pounded strait and reused. The tarp and water containers to catch rainwater for drinking or perhaps dig a well with the shovel well away from the latrine to get well water. (might want to boil it to be on the safe side). Pieces of debris wood too short to be reused become fuel for the cooking/ camp fire built in a ring of rocks or cinder blocks just outside your shelter.
A hard life for sure but nothing compared to being out in a wilderness with no man made materials laying about.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 21:10:06

Tropical Storm #Maria is exactly what the Caribbean doesn't need. Now expected to be a major Cat 3 hurricane by Wednesday near Puerto Rico.


https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 4681068547
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 17 Sep 2017, 04:28:07

Maria

NHC forecast discussion this AM

Key points
1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane or Tropical
Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of these
islands today.

2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 13.7N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 14.5N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 15.2N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 17.0N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/0600Z 19.5N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
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No way Jose

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 17 Sep 2017, 07:29:14

At least Jose is not targeting NYC anymore, a close call though.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... wn-on-baja

:roll: Hurricane Jose churned toward the U.S. Northeast and could cause swells along the coast by midweek, according to the National Hurricane Center, while Norma is aiming for Mexico’s Baja California and a new system is gathering strength in the Caribbean as a busy tropical weather season grinds on.
Jose was about 420 miles (675 kilometers) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It’s path could put it well off the coast of New Jersey and New York by Wednesday morning, although it may weaken to a tropical storm again by then, the center said.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 18 Sep 2017, 02:06:23

vt - "The most valuable tools to obtain in an area where they are not coming to return services soon". And despite Houston's terrible luck it was fortunate that the vast majority of damage was flooding. It was really amazing to see how quickly sheet rock, carpets and ruined furniture piled up at the curbs. Some efforts essential turned into "block parties" when large groups of neighbors
went housecto house. In some cases demoded a house in an hour. One reason the mayor quickly asked FEMA to pony up money immediately for garbage removal...hundreds of $millions.

For the most part took a lot less equipment then you described. Since we never got high winds almost no roof damage like the folks in FL. And almost all the areas had full electricity and water with in a week. So while very uncomfortable (bordering on disgusting) many homes were "livable" if you were willing to do it to yourself.

But that was the fast and "easy" part. Replacing walls and flooring will take many hundreds of crews working around the clock and it will still take many months. But if I owned a home in such shape and had some temp quarters I might want to wait for hurricane season to pass before I started.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 18 Sep 2017, 02:50:50

Next CAT 4-5 Hurricane is on track: MARIA!


Image

PUERTO RICO
GET READY! BATTLE STATIONS!

****************

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 18 Sep 2017, 04:50:48

NHC of s predicting it will move through Leewards and Virgins as a class 3 or 4.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Mon 18 Sep 2017, 07:14:45

Jose might hit Nantucket, and maybe part of the cape as a cat 1, or maybe a tropical storm. Right now we are getting fog and rain here from it.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 04:53:36

MARIA
NHC this am.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands as an
extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next day or so.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight
and Wednesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and
destructive waves, is expected for the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 07:38:22

Man, this is just too much already for those place and people. I hope they evacuated everybody. Those people in those islands are not in position to weather another Hurricane. I think these places may be end up becoming uninhabited areas very soon.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 07:50:49

So far not much happening from Jose. It's going to create a little rain tonight and tomorrow, mostly along the coast. I noticed that the individual rain pockets move east to west while the whole tropical storm moves eastwards, so it's still spinning! We need the rain, but maybe not the storm surge! It's nothing compared to what's happening in the leeward islands, so we won't complain!
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 09:10:47

CAT5 Maria

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 12:52:38

So now the long range models are showing Jose weakening with Maria catching up and engulfing Jose.

Just about the time I'm on the ferry crossing off the island.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 13:48:21

Newfie wrote:So now the long range models are showing Jose weakening with Maria catching up and engulfing Jose.

Just about the time I'm on the ferry crossing off the island.
Here's an article about how they might affect each other:

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/weath ... 70919.html
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 18:28:13

Current Euro forecast has Maria eating Jose and making a very close pass along the NJ coast.

But still very distant predictions.

In the meantime huge storm system in both Atlantic between England and Greenland.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Tue 19 Sep 2017, 19:32:40

Maria now a 175mph storm on a beeline for USVI and PR. New TropicalTidbits:
(I love this guy) - https://youtu.be/ZJISCmwrFCE

Nice forecast for San Juan, eh?

This product covers PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS

**EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING CLOSER TO ST CROIX IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Central Interior, Culebra,
Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central,
Northeast, Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and
Vicinity, Southeast, Southwest, St Croix, St.Thomas...St.
John...and Adjacent Islands, Vieques, and Western Interior

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 150 miles southeast of San Juan PR or about 60 miles
southeast of Saint Croix VI
- 17.0N 64.2W
- Storm Intensity 175 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 8 PM AST Major Hurricane Maria is still yet stronger with sustained
winds of 175 mph, but only very close to the center. It is expected to
continue at this strength with some fluctuations until it encounters
Puerto Rico. It should then begin to weaken. Hurricane conditions are
likely to begin Tuesday night across the USVI, Vieques and Culebra; and
across Puerto Rico Wednesday morning........

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... cG54Rdrxsg
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 01:53:19

Maria Back Over Water After Devastating Hit to Puerto Rico
Dr. Jeff Masters · September 20, 2017, 5:53 PM EDT
Image
Image

Above: Damage on the Lesser Antilles island of Dominica, after Hurricane Maria hit as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Maria killed at least 7 people on Dominica, and 2 on neighboring Guadeloupe. Image from a video by the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency....


An island-wide power outage in Puerto Rico
Not since the great Category 5 1928 San Felipe Segundo hurricane has Puerto Rico experienced a hurricane catastrophe as extreme as that wrought by Hurricane Maria. The storm’s powerful winds caused catastrophic damage to the island’s power grid, knocking out power to 100% of Puerto Rico’s 3.4 million residents. In the Virgin Islands, there was also heavy damage on St. Croix, and serious flooding has been reported on St. Thomas. Maria is almost assured to be the most expensive hurricane in Puerto Rico history, and may challenge Hurricane Hugo (1989) and Irma (2 weeks ago) as the most expensive hurricane on record for the U.S. Virgin Islands.
*************
Now a 100 year Hurricane catastrophe will hit every 10 years and a 1000 year flood will hit in every 100 years

So you have to calculate the "risks" new @ 410 ppm CO2 and 1850 ppb CH4 in 2017
**********************

More

Puerto Rico governor: Power could be out for months


http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/20/ameri ... index.html
Puerto Rico's energy grid took such a severe blow from deadly Hurricane Maria that restoring power to everyone may take months, Gov. Ricardo Rosselló told CNN on Wednesday night.

The entire system is down, the governor said. No one on the island has power from utilities.

=>

Dominica: 14 dead; looting and food, water shortages
On the island of Dominica, which took the full force of Maria before the storm passed on to the US territory, government spokesman Charles Jong told CNN that 14 people had died.
*************

As a Peak Oiler it will be "interesting" "educating" to study this "Mega Black Out"

PEAK OIL

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