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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 00:18:57

Jose now Cat 5. Fortunately it will not make landfall, but it will clip the northern Leewards that were already devastated by Irma.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 01:26:42

Plantagenet wrote:Hurricane Jose just was upgraded to a category 4 hurricane. Its coming in hot right behind Irma

Image
1-2 punch



Jose approaches Category 5 strength
A remarkable burst of intensification for Hurricane Jose continued Friday night. Data from a Hurricane Hunter mission found that Jose’s top winds had risen to 155 mph, just shy of Cat 5 strength. Jose was located about 265 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands at 11 pm EDT Friday, continuing on a steady west-northwest course at 14 mph. Friday morning’s suite of ensemble model guidance was nearly unanimous in putting Jose on a more northwesterly course that would take the storm just northeast of the hard-hit islands of Barbuda and St. Martin/St. Maarten. The good news is that Jose is a much smaller storm than Irma, with hurricane-force winds extending only about 25 miles to the southwest of its center. If Jose adheres to the 11 pm EDT Friday forecast from NHC, it will pass no closer than about 30-40 miles northeast of Barbuda. This would give the island gale-force winds and possibly heavy squalls, but NHC guidance yielded only a 19% chance of hurricane-force winds at Barbuda and a 13% chance at St. Thomas...
**************************
Hollywood like => THE TWISTER HURRICANE CAT 5

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/cat-5 ... cuba-coast
It was easy to predict this => thread part 1

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Classic

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 09:04:58

SEPT 5, page 23 of Part 1 of this thread.

Newfie wrote
"This mornings predictions have her going West of our boat giving by irlt a good brush but only after running the length of Florida.

One thing I watch is the trend of the predictions. In this case they are trending westwards. The Gulf may not be out of it yet.

Rockman,

You got a big hurricane magnet over there or do you just love attention?"
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 17:57:11

Ok, what happened to the Irma thread? MD is gonna be so pissed.
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Re: Hurricane Katia

Unread postby donstewart » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 18:34:47

@rockman
I don't see the Irma thread. But a little more on models. Take a look at this article:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane- ... ast-model/

You can see that they want you to believe whatever it is that the Officials tell you. They do admit that the European Model has a 'slight advantage', but the wise people who are in charge can be absolutely trusted. Which includes the 'non-fake' media.

The previous article was considerably less congratulatory about how good the Official version has been...without claiming that any model or forecaster or organization is perfect.

I do not claim to be able to pick winners. When the Official model shows the Bermuda High shrinking and Irma headed off toward Britain across the Atlantic, while the European Model shows the Bermuda High being either stable or actually growing and steering Irma toward the Florida Strait, I am not capable of arguing the point. I did take exception to cog's flat-out claim that it was the North Atlantic for sure, since I was pretty sure he had no inside information on the future of the Bermuda High. I do observe that the European Model has been more right, more of the time, in recent years.

Hope this clarifies things....Don Stewart
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 20:22:35

Cid_Yama wrote:Ok, what happened to the Irma thread? MD is gonna be so pissed.


It's still working but seems it's been pulled from the list. I got back to it from my browser history:

post1372297.html#p1372297
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 20:38:48

It is in the Current Events forum
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 01:49:49

THE EVENT 2017

Image

Historical Super Hurricane CAT 4-5 hits Key West

Historians will write books Earth before IRMA and after IRMA

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Eve Of Destruction
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Global Warming reality 2017

2017@ 410 PPM CO2
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 07:56:32

Irma has made its turn to the north. The storm's forward movement is slowing, and its wind speed is increasing. It is now about 70 miles south of Miami, and 65 miles west.

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 08:12:30

Irma looks like turning into a worst case scenario. Jose will follow Irma and hit Florida a second time?
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 09:04:18

Depends on if you believe in models Yoshua. Jose is supposed to end veering away from Florida into the Atlantic. We see how well that turned out for Irma.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 09:19:10

The only problem is that they don't seem to have a clue as where Jose is going?
Look at their interactive map!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 09:21:25

Forgot to add:
Click the red hurricane symbol to bring up further information
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 09:30:21

Jose appears to be going a lot of nowhere.....

Image

.....but may loop back on itself and head west.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 09:36:56

Cog wrote:Depends on if you believe in models Yoshua. Jose is supposed to end veering away from Florida into the Atlantic. We see how well that turned out for Irma.


We believe in scientific models that are predictive. Hurricane models are bit more tricky.

Jose have so far followed Irma's track. Irma was supposed to push Jose out into the Atlantic when Irma was supposed to go up east of Florida. Irma is now heading West of Florida and will no longer push Jose out into the Atlantic.

But that analyse is just based on my guessing model which is not scientific...
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 10:00:04

Irma as it moves up the West cost of Florida.

https://youtu.be/4YrhMLpU26c
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 17:56:37

Posts from elsewhere related to st Marten and Anguilla. Just to get a sense of the situation.


CARIBBEAN UPDATE
This update is at 9am Eastern Friday 8th Sep 2017. The aftermath of Irma. Update on the Caribbean Islands:
1.St.Martin French & Dutch- Badly damaged. Currently ships are heading there this afternoon they should have supplies. No communication via telephone is active right now. About 95% personal property and hotels are badly damaged. The airport is off limit right now. So contact with family is very difficult but will hopefully re-open by tomorrow latest.
2. Tortola - Everything is gone. East End is badly damaged. Even for those who are on the hills. The winds were terrible and broke , tore and smashed in everything. Communication lines are still down. Hopefully by tomorrow also. Stay put and keep ears to ground.
3. Virgin Gorda & Arnegarda - Destroyed. Majority flooded by water . out of communication, won't be up until mainland restored.
4. Antigua & Barbuda. - Antigua is ok. Recovering and trying to evacuate persons from Barbuda who losteverything.
5. St.Thomas - USVI Students on campus are safe. Outskirts are in terrible condition. Communication still down, currently working to be restored.
6. Anguilla - Damaged badly also. Minimal communication, but working on restoring in some areas is a task. Also because near to sea, there's still tremendous flooding in certain areas.
7. St.Barts - Damaged. No power No communication.

--------------
for evacuation on sunday from st martin

Royal Caribbean International announced on Saturday afternoon that it was sending ships to St. Thomas and St. Maarten in a bid to not only provide supplies, but transport evacuees following Hurricane Irma.

The Adventure of the Seas will make a humanitarian stop in St. Maarten on Sunday and Majesty of the Seas will make humanitarian calls in St. Thomas and St. Maarten to provide supplies and also assist in transporting evacuees in St. Maarten to safety, the company said.

The September 15 cruise aboard the Majesty of the Seas has been cancelled and the ship will be utilized for rescueefforts in the Caribbean.

The Empress of the Seas and Enchantment of the Seas are also ready to assist Key West and Tampa once the impact of the storm is known, Royal Caribbean added.

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/c...n-efforts.html

-------
**LIVE UPDATE** 20:57 GMT 1+
'Relief' on Saint Maarten prior to weaker hurricane Jose
TODAY, 20:57 09sept2017
"It's quiet on the streets," begins Gordon Snow, editor of The Daily Herald on St. Maarten. "The marines have already left some posts. I can not say whether the rest is due to the presence of the marines or that everyone is preparing for the arrival of Hurricane Jose."
Because everybody is preparing for it, he goes on. "There is a feeling of relief here that the storm is going to pass north to us, that's a sip of a drink. It's nice that we do not have to hit the hurricane winds again."
Expectations Hurricane Jose
Nothing is as changeable as a hurricane and this is good news for Saint Maarten. According to the latest calculations, Jose travels 120 kilometers along the Caribbean island.
"Jose is a compact hurricane," says weatherman Peter Kuipers Munneke. "As a result, wind speeds are still a lot less high. The speeds will be between 60 and 80 kilometers per hour, which is a lot less fierce than with Hurricane Irma." The hurricane reaches wind speeds of 350 kilometers per hour.
Snow has no power and water. "Water is being distributed, but it is not much. In that respect, we are delighted with the rain that comes with Jose, I have not been able to shower for a number of days. Many generators are operational but one is careful with everything Generators at homes could cause fire. "
It is dry now, it rained a few moments this morning.
Iwan
Iwan and his daughter Cheryl, who are on holiday in St. Maarten, had a very close contact with the outside world today. The NOS talked with them earlier. "We have evacuated Americans from an adjacent hotel. It is dry now, it rained a few hours this morning."
This is all they could tell. Then the power and hence the wifi in the hotel were switched off again.
Volkskrant correspondent Kees Broere is still on the island. "The soldiers and police who are still patrolling must come in soon because it becomes too dangerous for them," he says.
In the field of looting, there is little more to fear, most of them have been plundered.
Kees Broere
"It also means that relief flights are temporarily discontinued. The government has made it clear to people that they must stay in before the arrival of Hurricane Jose."
"In the field of looting, there is little more to fear, most of it has already been plundered," says Broere. Several supermarkets who had something else have even given away things, he says. "A car rental company has given the cars that still do it, given to soldiers so that they can be used at least useful."
Everyone helps each other, I am impressed.
Aron Hoogendoorn from Saba
On Saba, an island that is less affected, it is all better arranged. "Supermarkets still have some food," says Aron Hoogendoorn, the NOS.
"Everyone has enough and different people share each other. There has been a lot of happening in two days, everyone has been working hard to clear all the debris. Everyone helps each other, I'm impressed."
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 01:58:30

Image

2 is a unique prime number

> 50% of Florida will be totallly dark in the next nights :idea: :!:

Florida <=> North Korea

Maybe you give me Florida night ISS pictures before and after the IRMA impact.

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 07:42:05

8:00 AM NOAA update 09/11/17

The storm is dissipating rapidly, but the damage along the Northern Florida coast is extensive. With many friends who have homes, and businesses in the Sarasota area I'll be getting first hand reports on the destruction when they return. Whether, or not the US can afford to repair the damage of two major hurricanes is questionable. Let's hope that Jose gets lost in the North Atlantic.

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 07:52:07

Congress has a blank check for the next three months. Of course we can afford it. LOL
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