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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:45:13

ROCKMAN wrote:Cid - Intetesting. Shift the eye west just about 40 miles so the left half of Irma continues sucking up water from the GOM and the east half hits the onshore with heavy rains. And you have a potential mirror image to Harvey.


Looks like you got your shift.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:45:34

Sounds like someone fat fingered something by accident.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:47:12

If this Hurricane does what some models are projectin and goes upwards all the way to Tennessee and Short is right about acute gas shortages around that entire area, oh boy all I can say is my heart goes out to all those people. It seems people are more than willing to comply with the evacuation orders in Florida after hearing what happened in Houston. Really seems from accounts that a mass exodus is occuring in Florida. Also, Rockman's point got me thinking that if I an in my car, I would be very alert to bulletins either from radio or Internet Wifi about the direction of Hurricane and speed because as Rock said you just need to outrun or dodge the Monster. Here is link to evacuatioin situation in FL
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-0 ... ve-florida
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Re: Hurricane Katia

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:57:14

T - Maybe a bit from Mexican offshore fields but should have by now but haven't seen such reports. Onshore Mexico: little to no production where Matia is projected to run onshore.

The US? Technically the standard policy by most companies is to evac all facilities when there's a hurricane in the GOM. But given where and when she developed I don't think that has happened. And very little oil production in the western portion of the GOM anyway. Onshore south Texas? No one down there is even watching Katia.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 09:00:29

https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/hu ... mains-cone


WeatherHurricane Irma: Tampa Bay Area Under WatchWestward shifts in Hurricane Irma’s projected path have put the Tampa Bay area in potential peril.



By Sherri Lonon (Patch Staff) - Updated September 8, 2017 9:29 am ET

TAMPA, FL — Hurricane Irma’s westward track shift Thursday resulted in more Tampa Bay area residents waking up Friday to find themselves in the Category 4 storm’s possible path. Hurricane watches have gone up for portions of Manatee and Sarasota counties while Sarasota’s coastal area is also under a storm surge watch, meaning conditions are possible within 48 hours. The entire Tampa Bay area – and most of the state – remained in the storm’s cone Friday.

By 8 a.m. Sept. 8, Irma had lost some, but not much of her punch. The beast that tore through the Caribbean, leaving at least 10 people dead in her wake, had downgraded to a strong Category 4 storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Irma was located about 450 miles southeast of Miami, moving west-northwest at 16 mph. (For more hurricane news or local news from Florida, click here to sign up forreal-time news alerts and newsletters from Tampa Patch, and click here to find your local Florida Patch. If you have an iPhone, click here to get the free Patch iPhone app.)

Watch: Analysis – Irma's 'Cone Of Uncertainty' Is Massive

 

On its current path, Irma is expected to clear the northern Cuban coastline by Saturday and make its way up the center of the state in the early morning hours Monday. Forecasters say Irma’s hurricane-force winds extend out 70 miles from the center while tropical storm-force winds reach out 185 miles. Although downgraded, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say Irma remains an “extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane.”

Like Tampa Patch on Facebook and keep reading below:

Tampa Patch

At the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office in Ruskin, forecasters say Irma’s effects are likely to be felt in the region starting Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the overnight hours Saturday while hurricane conditions are expected throughout the day Sunday and into Monday.

"The main window of concern for Hurricane Irma impacts across west central and southwest Florida is Sunday through Monday afternoon,” service forecasters wrote in Friday morning’s local hurricane statement. Forecasters are urging residents to prepare for damaging winds, storm surge and the possibility of flooding rain.

“Moderate risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall may prompt several evacuations and rescues,” the agency wrote. Tornadoes are also a concern as Irma makes her way through. People who have been asked to evacuate should do so and “stick to prescribed evacuation routes.”

Irma’s westward track shift on Thursday that placed the Tampa Bay area in jeopardy wasn’t entirely surprising, given the region had been soundly within the hurricane center’s projected cone for days, experts say.

“Even without the wobble (to the west), people needed to remember the (whole) cone,” Dr. Jennifer Collinstold Patch. The University of South Florida professor teaches at the School of Geosciences and has dedicated her life to studying storms like Irma. “Some people are just focusing on one line instead of the whole cone.”

Hurricane Irma Eyes Miami • Equifax Breach Exposes Millions • Court Rebukes Trump Travel Ban: Patch Morning Briefing

Also: massive earthquake hits off Mexican coast, Amazon's new headquarters, seven sharks in an above-ground pool and more.

Collins and her students were out on Thursday, visiting rest stops along Interstate 75 to meet with and interview evacuees. While their focus was scientific, to learn more about factors that influence people to evacuate – or not – Collins found herself concerned about the number of people she encountered who lacked plans on where to go or the tools to do so efficiently.

Collins said she ran into people at the Pasco County rest stop who were struggling with paper maps to find their way, those who were unable to use the map apps on their smartphones and, more troubling, “a lot of people who had no idea where they were going to go.”
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 09:04:52

Tallahassee is the place to be,
Safer livin' is the life for me,
Winds spreading out so far and wide,
Keep Miami, just gimme that western side.
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Re: Hurricane Katia

Unread postby GHung » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 09:11:05

Mexico also just got hit by an 8.1 earthquake off its southern coast. Death count up to 29 so far.
Seems the US isn't the only place to get double-whammied.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 09:24:24

onlooker wrote:https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/hurricane-irma-tampa-bay-area-remains-cone


WeatherHurricane Irma: Tampa Bay Area Under WatchWestward shifts in Hurricane Irma’s projected path have put the Tampa Bay area in potential peril.



By Sherri Lonon (Patch Staff) - Updated September 8, 2017 9:29 am ET

TAMPA, FL — Hurricane Irma’s westward track shift Thursday resulted in more Tampa Bay area residents waking up Friday to find themselves in the Category 4 storm’s possible path. Hurricane watches have gone up for portions of Manatee and Sarasota counties while Sarasota’s coastal area is also under a storm surge watch, meaning conditions are possible within 48 hours. The entire Tampa Bay area – and most of the state – remained in the storm’s cone Friday.

By 8 a.m. Sept. 8, Irma had lost some, but not much of her punch. The beast that tore through the Caribbean, leaving at least 10 people dead in her wake, had downgraded to a strong Category 4 storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Irma was located about 450 miles southeast of Miami, moving west-northwest at 16 mph. (For more hurricane news or local news from Florida, click here to sign up forreal-time news alerts and newsletters from Tampa Patch, and click here to find your local Florida Patch. If you have an iPhone, click here to get the free Patch iPhone app.)

Watch: Analysis – Irma's 'Cone Of Uncertainty' Is Massive 

On its current path, Irma is expected to clear the northern Cuban coastline by Saturday and make its way up the center of the state in the early morning hours Monday.”


"On its current path, Irma is expected to clear the northern Cuban coastline by Saturday and make its way up the center of the state in the early morning hours Monday."

Monday ?! This storm is projected to be well into Georgia by Monday. I'm seeing Saturday as when the storm comes ashore in south Florida.
Last edited by GHung on Fri 08 Sep 2017, 09:26:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 09:25:47

Hurricane Irma is currently going through an eyewall replacement cycle. This results in a temporary reduction in intensity.

"Irma is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle and this may cause some initial weakening before a re intensification when it is complete," said Meteorologist Cyndee O'Quinn. "Over the next 36 to 48 hours the environment will remain favorable for the hurricane with warm water and low shear."


When an eyewall replacement cycle occurs the intensity of the hurricane usually decreases. For example, a CAT 5 hurricane could weaken to a CAT 4 hurricane. The intensity weakens due to the gradual erosion of the inner eyewall. As the outer eyewall contracts and gains organization then the storm will often increase in intensity. Because of eyewall replacement cycles, a hurricane will typically not remain a CAT 5 for a long period of time.

Although an eyewall replacement cycle tends to reduce the category of a hurricane it also spread the hurricane force winds out over a larger area. This can cause a larger region to experience the extreme damage in a hurricane.

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Re: Hurricane Katia

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 09:44:00

Jim - All fine and dandy here. As I described elsewhere though I'm technically in the flooded area both east and west of me my little part of Texas is no different then before Harvey. About the only problem I might have had would be survivor's guilt. But learned how to deal with that decades ago. Of course now I don't self medicate with alcohol. I have cable TV and the Internet to "comfort" me. LOL.
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zombie alert

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 11:06:39

When power is down long enough for some reason, this is what follows:

https://nltimes.nl/2017/09/08/sint-maar ... icane-irma

In addition to the material destruction Hurricane Irma left in its wake, the island of Sint Maarten is now also dealing with looters carrying off whatever they can get their hands on, according to various news sources.
An eye witness told BNR on Friday morning that armed looters are working in organized groups to take as much as they can. Minister Ronald Plasterk of Home Affairs and Kingdom Relations confirmed the looting, according to Financieele Dagblad.

"Many people on Sint Maarten are only trying to survive and doing everything they can to get food and drink. We must keep the masses in check", former Prime Minister and current parliament chairman Sarah Wescott-Williams said about the looting on the island, according to NU.nl. The island urgently needs help. "The devastation of Hurricane Irma on Sint Maarten is so much worse than with all previous hurricanes we experienced", she said. "We had a huge blow. No one expected this. Everyone is astonished at the hurricane's power."

But according to local newspaper The Daily Herald, some looters aren't only going after the necessities. Jewelry stores on Front Street in capital Philipsburg were looted, bikes were stolen from the Harley Davidson store, and the iStore was emptied of mobile phones and tablets. Looters were also seen carrying away televisions and electronics, according tot he newspaper.


The Dutch government sent soldiers to assist the local police in maintaining public order and give aid where they can. The Pilipsburg resident confirmed that the military and police are present in the city. They were cleaning the streets, but could not control the looting, the woman said to NL Times. "Local police are busy and some looters are armed with pieces of wood in their hands", she said.

"I lived on this island for many years, and I never saw people like that, like animals", the local resident said. "No electricity, no water, no house and stealing everything, even TVs."
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 12:58:15

Hurricane Jose just was upgraded to a category 4 hurricane. Its coming in hot right behind Irma

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 15:22:28

"...should weaken considerably before getting even halfway..." True. But as my 20,000 sq miles of hurricane force wind model requires the eye to move only about 80 miles inland it doesn't depend on wind speeds a couple of hundred miles further inland.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 15:49:38

shorty - ""there has been no new supply arriving with the Colonial out of service for eight days; and they are trying to evacuate Miami." Not gasoline getting into FL from the Colonial Pipeline for the last 8 days??? Hell, Miami hasn't received fuel from Colonial for the last 27 year!!! Actually, just kidding: it never has.

Maybe you didn't bother to read my earlier post: essentially none of the FL gasoline supply comes from the Colonial Pipeline or any other pipeline for that matter. Nearly all of the FL fuel depots are at its ports where they are supplied by ship or barge. And as I also pointed out FL has what amounts to a strategic gasoline reserves in the northern part of the state:

"Lewis Oil is a 50 Year old business that serves a 14 county area in North Central Florida, delivering 30 million gallons of petroleum products to convenience stores, farms, construction sites, and most importantly, act as First Responders for local, state, and federal emergency agencies."

Perhaps a lesson they learned in previous hurricanes. As the FL govenor said there is no shortage of gasoline in the state but a delivery problem. Which is why he has state police troopers escorting tankers full of fuel to stations down south.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 16:15:55

"The island of Sint Maarten is now also dealing with looters carrying off whatever they can get their hands on."

Not much looting going on in the Houston area. Arrested 4 earlier this week. Perhaps something to do with 450,000 concelled carry licenses and more weapons in this county then in most states. As well as large signs posted at subdivisions saying looters will be shoot on sight. Last week a live report from a TV report with a fellow both sitting in a canoe at night. Reported asked why he was there. He just said: "Waiting for looters". Had a shotgun across his lap.

But we are civilized in Texas: last week a church group started to boat its way into a rural development north of Houston. And then 3 shots at a distance convinced them to head back the church and focus on passing out relief supplies.

Like I said, "civilized"...we give warning shots. Well, most of us. LOL.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 16:30:23

Wasn't famalier with "eye wall replacement" until the Weather Channel started talking about it. A short course:

Eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.

The discovery of this process was partially responsible for the end of the U.S. government's hurricane modification experiment Project Stormfury. This project set out to seed clouds outside the eyewall, apparently causing a new eyewall to form and weakening the storm. When it was discovered that this was a natural process due to hurricane dynamics, the project was quickly abandoned.

More at:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall ... ment_cycle
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Re: Hurricane Katia

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 16:50:23

By the time little Katia makes landfall in Mexico tonight it may have puffed up to a Cat 3 according to latest observations. And potentially rolling towards the area that was just hit with the 8.1 quake.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 19:21:32

I really hope they got those people out from those little islands in the Caribbean because :
Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy courtesy NHC
And check out these two maps looks like Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic will be spare. Too early to determine the US

hurricane-jose-forecast-track-7-pmjpg-a3a8e60053f8e3ec.jpg
hurricane-jose-forecast-track-7-pmjpg-a3a8e60053f8e3ec.jpg (143.61 KiB) Viewed 1910 times
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Re: Hurricane Katia

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 21:41:54

ROCKMAN wrote:By the time little Katia makes landfall in Mexico tonight it may have puffed up to a Cat 3 according to latest observations. And potentially rolling towards the area that was just hit with the 8.1 quake.


Well in one sense that is good, instead of hitting an area that is otherwise stable it will run over territory already in serious need of rebuilding. Cold comfort for those affected I am sure, but probably less of an economic downside for Mexico as a nation.
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Re: Hurricane Katia

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 22:35:31

T - And though not autonomous by any means those southern states have had a somewhat contentious relationship with Mexico City.
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