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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 09:25:47

Hurricane Irma is currently going through an eyewall replacement cycle. This results in a temporary reduction in intensity.

"Irma is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle and this may cause some initial weakening before a re intensification when it is complete," said Meteorologist Cyndee O'Quinn. "Over the next 36 to 48 hours the environment will remain favorable for the hurricane with warm water and low shear."


When an eyewall replacement cycle occurs the intensity of the hurricane usually decreases. For example, a CAT 5 hurricane could weaken to a CAT 4 hurricane. The intensity weakens due to the gradual erosion of the inner eyewall. As the outer eyewall contracts and gains organization then the storm will often increase in intensity. Because of eyewall replacement cycles, a hurricane will typically not remain a CAT 5 for a long period of time.

Although an eyewall replacement cycle tends to reduce the category of a hurricane it also spread the hurricane force winds out over a larger area. This can cause a larger region to experience the extreme damage in a hurricane.

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zombie alert

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 11:06:39

When power is down long enough for some reason, this is what follows:

https://nltimes.nl/2017/09/08/sint-maar ... icane-irma

In addition to the material destruction Hurricane Irma left in its wake, the island of Sint Maarten is now also dealing with looters carrying off whatever they can get their hands on, according to various news sources.
An eye witness told BNR on Friday morning that armed looters are working in organized groups to take as much as they can. Minister Ronald Plasterk of Home Affairs and Kingdom Relations confirmed the looting, according to Financieele Dagblad.

"Many people on Sint Maarten are only trying to survive and doing everything they can to get food and drink. We must keep the masses in check", former Prime Minister and current parliament chairman Sarah Wescott-Williams said about the looting on the island, according to NU.nl. The island urgently needs help. "The devastation of Hurricane Irma on Sint Maarten is so much worse than with all previous hurricanes we experienced", she said. "We had a huge blow. No one expected this. Everyone is astonished at the hurricane's power."

But according to local newspaper The Daily Herald, some looters aren't only going after the necessities. Jewelry stores on Front Street in capital Philipsburg were looted, bikes were stolen from the Harley Davidson store, and the iStore was emptied of mobile phones and tablets. Looters were also seen carrying away televisions and electronics, according tot he newspaper.


The Dutch government sent soldiers to assist the local police in maintaining public order and give aid where they can. The Pilipsburg resident confirmed that the military and police are present in the city. They were cleaning the streets, but could not control the looting, the woman said to NL Times. "Local police are busy and some looters are armed with pieces of wood in their hands", she said.

"I lived on this island for many years, and I never saw people like that, like animals", the local resident said. "No electricity, no water, no house and stealing everything, even TVs."
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 12:58:15

Hurricane Jose just was upgraded to a category 4 hurricane. Its coming in hot right behind Irma

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1-2 punch
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 15:22:28

"...should weaken considerably before getting even halfway..." True. But as my 20,000 sq miles of hurricane force wind model requires the eye to move only about 80 miles inland it doesn't depend on wind speeds a couple of hundred miles further inland.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 15:49:38

shorty - ""there has been no new supply arriving with the Colonial out of service for eight days; and they are trying to evacuate Miami." Not gasoline getting into FL from the Colonial Pipeline for the last 8 days??? Hell, Miami hasn't received fuel from Colonial for the last 27 year!!! Actually, just kidding: it never has.

Maybe you didn't bother to read my earlier post: essentially none of the FL gasoline supply comes from the Colonial Pipeline or any other pipeline for that matter. Nearly all of the FL fuel depots are at its ports where they are supplied by ship or barge. And as I also pointed out FL has what amounts to a strategic gasoline reserves in the northern part of the state:

"Lewis Oil is a 50 Year old business that serves a 14 county area in North Central Florida, delivering 30 million gallons of petroleum products to convenience stores, farms, construction sites, and most importantly, act as First Responders for local, state, and federal emergency agencies."

Perhaps a lesson they learned in previous hurricanes. As the FL govenor said there is no shortage of gasoline in the state but a delivery problem. Which is why he has state police troopers escorting tankers full of fuel to stations down south.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 16:15:55

"The island of Sint Maarten is now also dealing with looters carrying off whatever they can get their hands on."

Not much looting going on in the Houston area. Arrested 4 earlier this week. Perhaps something to do with 450,000 concelled carry licenses and more weapons in this county then in most states. As well as large signs posted at subdivisions saying looters will be shoot on sight. Last week a live report from a TV report with a fellow both sitting in a canoe at night. Reported asked why he was there. He just said: "Waiting for looters". Had a shotgun across his lap.

But we are civilized in Texas: last week a church group started to boat its way into a rural development north of Houston. And then 3 shots at a distance convinced them to head back the church and focus on passing out relief supplies.

Like I said, "civilized"...we give warning shots. Well, most of us. LOL.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 16:30:23

Wasn't famalier with "eye wall replacement" until the Weather Channel started talking about it. A short course:

Eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.

The discovery of this process was partially responsible for the end of the U.S. government's hurricane modification experiment Project Stormfury. This project set out to seed clouds outside the eyewall, apparently causing a new eyewall to form and weakening the storm. When it was discovered that this was a natural process due to hurricane dynamics, the project was quickly abandoned.

More at:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall ... ment_cycle
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 19:21:32

I really hope they got those people out from those little islands in the Caribbean because :
Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy courtesy NHC
And check out these two maps looks like Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic will be spare. Too early to determine the US

hurricane-jose-forecast-track-7-pmjpg-a3a8e60053f8e3ec.jpg
hurricane-jose-forecast-track-7-pmjpg-a3a8e60053f8e3ec.jpg (143.61 KiB) Viewed 1309 times
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 00:18:57

Jose now Cat 5. Fortunately it will not make landfall, but it will clip the northern Leewards that were already devastated by Irma.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 01:26:42

Plantagenet wrote:Hurricane Jose just was upgraded to a category 4 hurricane. Its coming in hot right behind Irma

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1-2 punch



Jose approaches Category 5 strength
A remarkable burst of intensification for Hurricane Jose continued Friday night. Data from a Hurricane Hunter mission found that Jose’s top winds had risen to 155 mph, just shy of Cat 5 strength. Jose was located about 265 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands at 11 pm EDT Friday, continuing on a steady west-northwest course at 14 mph. Friday morning’s suite of ensemble model guidance was nearly unanimous in putting Jose on a more northwesterly course that would take the storm just northeast of the hard-hit islands of Barbuda and St. Martin/St. Maarten. The good news is that Jose is a much smaller storm than Irma, with hurricane-force winds extending only about 25 miles to the southwest of its center. If Jose adheres to the 11 pm EDT Friday forecast from NHC, it will pass no closer than about 30-40 miles northeast of Barbuda. This would give the island gale-force winds and possibly heavy squalls, but NHC guidance yielded only a 19% chance of hurricane-force winds at Barbuda and a 13% chance at St. Thomas...
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Hollywood like => THE TWISTER HURRICANE CAT 5

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/cat-5 ... cuba-coast
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 09:04:58

SEPT 5, page 23 of Part 1 of this thread.

Newfie wrote
"This mornings predictions have her going West of our boat giving by irlt a good brush but only after running the length of Florida.

One thing I watch is the trend of the predictions. In this case they are trending westwards. The Gulf may not be out of it yet.

Rockman,

You got a big hurricane magnet over there or do you just love attention?"
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 17:57:11

Ok, what happened to the Irma thread? MD is gonna be so pissed.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 20:22:35

Cid_Yama wrote:Ok, what happened to the Irma thread? MD is gonna be so pissed.


It's still working but seems it's been pulled from the list. I got back to it from my browser history:

post1372297.html#p1372297
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 09 Sep 2017, 20:38:48

It is in the Current Events forum
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 01:49:49

THE EVENT 2017

Image

Historical Super Hurricane CAT 4-5 hits Key West

Historians will write books Earth before IRMA and after IRMA

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Global Warming reality 2017

2017@ 410 PPM CO2
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 07:56:32

Irma has made its turn to the north. The storm's forward movement is slowing, and its wind speed is increasing. It is now about 70 miles south of Miami, and 65 miles west.

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 08:12:30

Irma looks like turning into a worst case scenario. Jose will follow Irma and hit Florida a second time?
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 09:04:18

Depends on if you believe in models Yoshua. Jose is supposed to end veering away from Florida into the Atlantic. We see how well that turned out for Irma.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 09:19:10

The only problem is that they don't seem to have a clue as where Jose is going?
Look at their interactive map!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 10 Sep 2017, 09:21:25

Forgot to add:
Click the red hurricane symbol to bring up further information
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